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Afghanistan’s GDP to expand by 3% in 2021: ADB

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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts that Afghanistan’s gross domestic product GDP growth will increase by 3% in 2021 and 4% in 2022 after the normalization of business activity and market sentiment.

In its Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2021 released on Wednesday, the ADB stated that Afghanistan’s economic growth is expected to recover this year and accelerate next year after a sharp decline in 2020 from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and continued violence and instability.

“Afghanistan’s economy experienced unprecedented disruption in 2020 due to COVID-19 pandemic, political instability and continued violence, which cut remittances, trade, and revenue,” said ADB Country Director for Afghanistan Narendra Singru. 

“With a successful COVID-19 vaccine rollout and post-pandemic recovery, the country should be on track to achieve economic growth this year and in 2022 as business activity and market sentiment normalize,” Singru said.

According to the report, inflation more than doubled from 2.3% in 2019 to 5.6% in 2020 driven by higher food prices. Food price inflation in 2020 was estimated at 10% with the highest spike recorded in April when border closure and panic buying propelled it to 16.6%. Inflation is projected to moderate to 5.0% in 2021 and 4.0% in 2022 as food supplies improve.

However, risks remain, including implementing vaccinations in remote and insecure areas, conflict, criminality, corruption, political instability, and broader social fragility. If unaddressed, these could weigh heavily on the economy and impede recovery.

“Supporting the recovery of micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) hard hit by the pandemic is pivotal to safeguarding workers’ incomes and livelihoods, according to the report. Before the pandemic, MSMEs were estimated to provide nearly 1.6 million service and industry jobs. The government approved a 2-year support package worth $295 million in October 2020 to improve business conditions and implemented countercyclical measures that include support for MSMEs,” the report read.

The ADB suggests that Afghanistan should facilitate MSME access to markets by developing infrastructure, improving security, combating corruption, simplifying regulation, strengthening property rights and contract enforcement, and promoting innovation and better labor skills in order to improve the business environment.

“Increasing access to credit and further expanding the formal bank sector is also crucial,” the organization said.

“ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. Established in 1966, it is owned by 68 members—49 from the region,” the report concluded.

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Uzbekistan approves feasibility study agreement for Trans-Afghan Railway

The agreement builds on a tripartite document signed on July 17, 2025, which outlined cooperation on preparing a feasibility study for the Termez–Kharlachi railway corridor.

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Uzbekistan has ratified an international agreement to prepare a feasibility study for the Naybabad–Kharlachi section of the Trans-Afghan Railway, formalizing its participation in the project.

President Shavkat Mirziyoyev signed a decree on February 4 approving the agreement.

The framework agreement involves the transport ministries of Uzbekistan, Afghanistan and Pakistan and provides for joint work on a feasibility study for the proposed railway line between Naybabad and Kharlachi. The section forms part of the wider Trans-Afghan Railway project aimed at strengthening transport links between Central and South Asia.

Under the decree, Uzbekistan’s Ministry of Transport has been designated as the competent authority responsible for implementing the agreement. The Ministry of Foreign Affairs has been tasked with notifying Kabul and Islamabad that Uzbekistan has completed the internal procedures required for the agreement to enter into force.

The agreement builds on a tripartite document signed on July 17, 2025, which outlined cooperation on preparing a feasibility study for the Termez–Kharlachi railway corridor.

The planned route is expected to run through Termez, Naybabad, Maidanshahr, Logar and Kharlachi, providing a transit corridor through Afghanistan.

The feasibility study will be commissioned by the Tripartite Project Office for the Development Strategy of International Transport Corridors under Uzbekistan Railways.

Established in Tashkent in May 2023, the office also operates branches in Kabul and Islamabad to coordinate the project.

First proposed in 2018, the Trans-Afghan Railway was initially projected to carry up to 20 million tons of cargo annually at a cost of about $5 billion. Cost estimates have since been revised.

In July 2022, Uzbekistan Railways cited an estimate of $4.6 billion with a construction period of up to five years, while Pakistan’s Ministry of Railways put the cost at $8.2 billion in December 2024.

More recent assessments have placed the overall cost at around $7 billion, with a public-private partnership under a Build-Operate-Transfer model among the options under consideration.

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Afghanistan seeks expanded ties with Russia in energy, mining and infrastructure

TASS reported that Kabul is also prepared to cooperate with Moscow in the extraction of mineral resources.

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Afghanistan has expressed strong interest in broadening trade and economic cooperation with Russia, with a particular focus on energy, mining and infrastructure projects, according to Russia’s TASS news agency.

In an interview with TASS, Afghanistan’s Ambassador to Moscow, Gul Hassan, said Kabul is keen to import oil and gas from Russia as part of efforts to deepen bilateral economic ties.

He noted that trade relations between the two countries are progressing and that, if key obstacles—especially banking restrictions—are addressed, Afghanistan could also import medicines, industrial goods, grain, vegetable oils and other commodities from Russia.

In return, the ambassador said Afghanistan is ready to export fresh and dried fruits, vegetables, medicinal plants, carpets and mineral resources to the Russian market, adding that expanding export-import operations could significantly increase bilateral trade volumes.

He also revealed plans to open an exhibition of Afghan products in Moscow, which he said would help boost trade turnover.

TASS reported that Kabul is also prepared to cooperate with Moscow in the extraction of mineral resources.

Hassan described the economy as a central pillar of Afghanistan’s foreign policy, emphasizing the government’s goal of positioning the country as a key link in regional economic integration and attracting foreign investment.

He noted that Russian companies have long shown interest in Afghanistan’s industrial, mining and infrastructure sectors.

The ambassador further told TASS that Russian firms are already in talks with relevant Afghan authorities on the construction of small hydroelectric power plants.

Representatives of several Russian companies have reportedly visited Afghanistan and held meetings with officials and technical experts.

According to Hassan, practical steps toward cooperation in the energy and power generation sectors are expected in the near future, pointing to a potential new phase in Afghan-Russian economic relations.

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Pakistan, China plan to extend CPEC to Afghanistan, revive trilateral framework

The proposed CPEC expansion into Afghanistan is seen as a move to enhance regional economic integration amid shifting geopolitical dynamics.

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Pakistan and China are moving forward with plans to extend the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) into Afghanistan, a strategic step aimed at bolstering regional connectivity and economic cooperation. The expansion, along with the revival of the Pakistan-China-Afghanistan trilateral framework, was discussed in a recent briefing to the Pakistani Senate Standing Committee on Foreign Affairs.

According to Pakistan Today, officials from Pakistan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs outlined the details during a session in Islamabad, where they reviewed key aspects of Pakistan’s foreign relations, regional developments, and economic diplomacy.

Officials emphasized that Pakistan’s relationship with China remains strong, underscoring the “all-weather” strategic partnership between the two nations. Strengthening ties with Beijing, they stated, continues to be a cornerstone of Pakistan’s foreign policy. This includes unwavering support for China’s position on regional and international issues, particularly the One-China policy and matters related to territorial integrity.

The briefing also touched upon China’s consistent backing of Pakistan in various areas, including sovereignty, economic stability, counter-terrorism, and support for Pakistan’s exit from the Financial Action Task Force (FATF) grey list.

The Kashmir issue was also addressed, with officials noting that China considers it an unresolved matter and advocates for a peaceful resolution in line with UN Security Council resolutions.

The proposed CPEC expansion into Afghanistan is seen as a move to enhance regional economic integration amid shifting geopolitical dynamics. Officials stated that reviving the trilateral framework is part of broader efforts to foster greater cooperation and connectivity in the region, with an eye on long-term stability and prosperity.

The move also reflects both countries’ desire to further integrate Afghanistan into the regional economic landscape, a key element in fostering peace and development.

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