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Expert foresees shift in US policy on Afghanistan under Biden
With less than 50 days before president-elect Joe Biden takes office, speculation is growing as to how the US counterterrorism policies will shift under a new administration, with one expert saying it is naive to think the Taliban will stick to its promises, work in good faith with the Afghan government and break ties with al-Qaeda.
Jason Blazakis, a professor at Middlebury Institute of International Studies, and director of its Center on Terrorism, Extremism and Counterterrorism, wrote in an opinion article published in The Hill on Thursday that it is anticipated that Biden’s incoming foreign policy team will reinvigorate US multilateral counterterrorism efforts at the United Nations and elsewhere.
Blazakis stated that US policies on Iraq and Afghanistan will likely shift, “given that ISIS remains a threat to stability in the Near East and the al-Qaeda core and ISIS branch known as Khorasan remain active in Southwest Asia (including Afghanistan).”
Blazakis said that Biden’s security team is unlikely to drastically increase troop presence in Afghanistan or Iraq, but if the stability in the respective countries continue to devolve, “observers should expect some level of redeployment, a significant increase in bilateral and multilateral capacity-building efforts to shore up counterpart security, and an expansion of programmatic efforts to counter violent extremism.”
He said that since outgoing President Donald Trump’s move to withdraw troops from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, “ISIS brazenly launched an alarming number of attacks.”
“The Trump peace agreement with the Taliban (in February) will create an atmosphere, because of US troop withdrawal, for al-Qaeda to regain sanctuary and finally regroup after two decades of being on its heels,” he said.
“Believing that the Taliban will fulfill its promises and work in good faith with the Afghan government and break its relationship with al Qaeda is naive.
“In October, the Taliban demonstrated its continued resolve to fight when it killed more than 40 Afghan police officials in Helmand Province,” he said.
Blazakis stated that Biden inherits a challenging national security environment, and efforts to counter threats including ISIS and al-Qaeda remain paramount.
“But human rights considerations must be fundamental to the Biden team’s application of counterterrorism power. Mistakes of the past, such as drone targeting that has resulted in too many civilian casualties, must be avoided,” he said.
Pointing out that the former Obama administration’s security team recognized this late in then president Barack Obama’s second term but then ordered a report on civilian deaths associated with US drones.
“The Trump national security team canceled the report last year, setting back efforts to improve transparency in the conduct of counterterrorism. Transparency, accountability, oversight, and regional and multilateral cooperation to mitigate terror and extremism must be the principles that guide the Biden team’s fight against bad actors,” Blazakis stated.
If these principles are not adhered to, mistakes of the past will be repeated and human rights will continue to be eroded, he added.
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German firm keen to invest in Afghanistan’s mining sector
The German company Green International has expressed interest in investing in Afghanistan’s rich mineral resources, following a meeting with officials from the Ministry of Mines and Petroleum.
The discussion focused on opportunities in oil and gas extraction and processing, as well as solid and metallic mineral projects. Representatives of Green International highlighted their expertise and capacity to contribute to Afghanistan’s mining sector, aiming to attract further reputable international investors.
Meraj Mohammad Meraj, chief of staff of the Minister of Mines and Petroleum, welcomed the company’s interest, saying: “Afghanistan is a mineral-rich country. The Ministry of Mines and Petroleum encourages investment from all nations and will provide support and facilities to facilitate foreign investment.”
This engagement reflects the Afghan government’s ongoing efforts to strengthen international partnerships and promote foreign investment, crucial for economic growth and development in the country’s natural resource sector.
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CSTO official warns Afghanistan-based militants pose major threat to regional stability
Andrey Serdyukov, Chief of the Joint Staff of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, has warned that militant groups based in Afghanistan pose a significant threat to regional security, with the potential to export terrorism to neighboring countries.
“The proliferation of radical ideologies and drug trafficking continues to pose serious challenges,” Serdyukov said during a news briefing.
He also highlighted that Western nations are actively seeking to expand their influence in the South Caucasus, a region he described as volatile due to unresolved conflicts and emerging geopolitical tensions. “This situation is particularly concerning, largely driven by Western efforts to establish a stronger presence in the South Caucasus,” he added.
Concluding his assessment, Serdyukov noted that the overall security situation across the CSTO’s area of responsibility remains tense and unpredictable. “As international relations continue to deteriorate, the risk of conflict is likely to grow,” he warned.
Regional countries have repeatedly expressed concern over militant threats originating from Afghanistan. The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, however, has dismissed such claims, asserting that it will not allow Afghan territory to be used against any other nation.
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Pakistan says it has not closed door on diplomacy, nor seeking war with Afghanistan
Amid tensions between Pakistan and Afghanistan, Islamabad on Thursday renewed its call for the Islamic Emirate to take decisive action against militant groups operating from Afghan territory.
Speaking at his weekly press briefing in Islamabad, Foreign Office spokesperson Tahir Andrabi stressed that Pakistan is neither closing the door on diplomacy nor opening the door to conflict between the two neighbouring nations.
“Diplomacy continues even in wars. Diplomacy continues even during skirmishes,” he remarked, adding that Pakistan wishes peace and prosperity for “our Afghan brothers and sisters.”
Referring to a recent report by the United Nations Security Council, Andrabi said the document strongly reinforces Pakistan’s longstanding concerns regarding the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan and the situation in Afghanistan.
“The report confirms Pakistan’s position that the TTP’s resurgence is linked to the post-2021 takeover by the Afghan interim government. This is an important document, and we are following up with the relevant UN bodies, Security Council members, and other international stakeholders,” he said.
The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan has repeatedly denied the presence of foreign militant groups in Afghanistan, arguing that it cannot be held responsible for Pakistan’s internal security challenges.
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