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Expert foresees shift in US policy on Afghanistan under Biden
With less than 50 days before president-elect Joe Biden takes office, speculation is growing as to how the US counterterrorism policies will shift under a new administration, with one expert saying it is naive to think the Taliban will stick to its promises, work in good faith with the Afghan government and break ties with al-Qaeda.
Jason Blazakis, a professor at Middlebury Institute of International Studies, and director of its Center on Terrorism, Extremism and Counterterrorism, wrote in an opinion article published in The Hill on Thursday that it is anticipated that Biden’s incoming foreign policy team will reinvigorate US multilateral counterterrorism efforts at the United Nations and elsewhere.
Blazakis stated that US policies on Iraq and Afghanistan will likely shift, “given that ISIS remains a threat to stability in the Near East and the al-Qaeda core and ISIS branch known as Khorasan remain active in Southwest Asia (including Afghanistan).”
Blazakis said that Biden’s security team is unlikely to drastically increase troop presence in Afghanistan or Iraq, but if the stability in the respective countries continue to devolve, “observers should expect some level of redeployment, a significant increase in bilateral and multilateral capacity-building efforts to shore up counterpart security, and an expansion of programmatic efforts to counter violent extremism.”
He said that since outgoing President Donald Trump’s move to withdraw troops from Syria, Iraq and Afghanistan, “ISIS brazenly launched an alarming number of attacks.”
“The Trump peace agreement with the Taliban (in February) will create an atmosphere, because of US troop withdrawal, for al-Qaeda to regain sanctuary and finally regroup after two decades of being on its heels,” he said.
“Believing that the Taliban will fulfill its promises and work in good faith with the Afghan government and break its relationship with al Qaeda is naive.
“In October, the Taliban demonstrated its continued resolve to fight when it killed more than 40 Afghan police officials in Helmand Province,” he said.
Blazakis stated that Biden inherits a challenging national security environment, and efforts to counter threats including ISIS and al-Qaeda remain paramount.
“But human rights considerations must be fundamental to the Biden team’s application of counterterrorism power. Mistakes of the past, such as drone targeting that has resulted in too many civilian casualties, must be avoided,” he said.
Pointing out that the former Obama administration’s security team recognized this late in then president Barack Obama’s second term but then ordered a report on civilian deaths associated with US drones.
“The Trump national security team canceled the report last year, setting back efforts to improve transparency in the conduct of counterterrorism. Transparency, accountability, oversight, and regional and multilateral cooperation to mitigate terror and extremism must be the principles that guide the Biden team’s fight against bad actors,” Blazakis stated.
If these principles are not adhered to, mistakes of the past will be repeated and human rights will continue to be eroded, he added.
A tripartite meeting between the delegations of Afghanistan, Turkmenistan and Kazakhstan was held in Kabul with the aim of connecting North Asia to South Asia and reducing transit and transportation costs among these three countries, the Ministry of Trade and Commerce said in a statement.
In this meeting, an agreement was reached on the creation of a joint technical committee to continue the talks.
This tripartite meeting was held under the leadership of Nooruddin Azizi, the Acting Minister of Industry and Commerce, Vice President of Turkmenistan and Srik Zhumangarin, the Deputy Prime Minister of Kazakhstan.
Earlier, a bilateral meeting was held between the delegation of the Islamic Emirate and Turkmenistan. The ministry of commerce said the participants of the meeting discussed the construction of a large joint logistics center in Torghondi, the trilateral transit agreement between the IEA, Turkmenistan, and Kazakhstan, the expansion of Afghanistan’s railway, solving issues related to Afghan transit and export goods, and a number of other commercial issues.
Acting Minister of National Defense Mohammad Yaqub Mujahid has said that no destructive groups including Daesh have physical presence in Afghanistan, adding the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) will not allow anyone to pose threat to any country in the region from the Afghan soil.
Mujahid made the remarks in a meeting with a delegation from Malaysia in Kabul on Thursday.
According to a statement released by the Ministry of Defense, Mujahid highlighted Malaysia’s “good treatment” of Afghan refugees and its long-standing relations with Afghanistan, and said that Malaysia is a powerful Islamic country and visits should increase.
He added that with the establishment of the Islamic Emirate, occupation and war ended in Afghanistan, and the country is fully secure.
Based on the statement, the Malaysian delegation called Afghanistan a friendly country and while emphasizing on comprehensive cooperation, it assured that what they have seen in Afghanistan will be shared with the authorities of their country.
The European Union signed an agreement worth 17 million euros with the International Organization for Migration (IOM) to improve access to basic services, increased economic opportunities and protection for Afghans on the move and their host communities in Afghanistan.
The needs of women and girls are a particular focus of the programme, EU said in a statement released on Thursday.
The statement noted that from January 2023 until April 2024, over 1.5 million Afghans returned from Pakistan and Iran.
“I am deeply moved by the hardship returnees face when being deported to Afghanistan. In a country suffering from poverty and climate change, and in a city that just saw devastating earthquakes, this truly is a crisis within a crisis.”, said Peteris Ustubs, Director for the Middle East, Asia and Pacific of the European Commission’s Department for International Partnerships during the signing ceremony at the IOM transit centre in Herat.
Raffaella Iodice, EU Chargée d’Affaires a.i. to Afghanistan, added “The solidarity of the Afghan people towards their brothers and sisters is an inspiration. We must assure that communities hosting and helping new arrivals are supported. The partnership with IOM ensures access to essential services and provides protection for Afghan returnees and their host communities. As women and girls can be particularly affected, we make sure that all members of society can benefit”.
“IOM’s continued partnership with the EU has been critical in enabling our teams to reach hundreds of thousands of Afghan returnees and other vulnerable communities in the country”, said IOM Afghanistan Chief of Mission, Maria Moita. “Thanks to this renewed commitment, we will be able to focus on addressing the immense challenges in the areas of return and contribute to reintegration, social cohesion, and longer-term solutions for those communities.”
This additional contribution is part of a 5-year programme that is being implemented across Afghanistan and in four countries in the region. It builds on the EU’s previous support to IOM to improve the wellbeing of Afghans forced to return to the country, EU said.
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