Science & Technology
Google AI chief says there’s a 50% chance we’ll hit AGI in just 5 years
More than a decade ago, the co-founder of Google’s DeepMind artificial intelligence lab predicted that by 2028, AI will have a half-and-half shot of being about as smart as humans — and now, he’s holding firm on that forecast.
In an interview with tech podcaster Dwarkesh Patel, DeepMind co-founder Shane Legg said that he still thinks that researchers have a 50-50 chance of achieving artificial general intelligence (AGI), a stance he publicly announced at the very end of 2011 on his blog, Futurism reported.
It’s a notable prediction considering the exponentially growing interest in the space. OpenAI CEO Sam Altman has long advocated for an AGI, a hypothetical agent that is capable of accomplishing intellectual tasks as well as a human, that can be of benefit to all. But whether we’ll ever be able to get to that point — let alone agree on one definition of AGI — remains to be seen.
Legg apparently began looking towards his 2028 goalpost all the way back in 2001 after reading “The Age of Spiritual Machines,” the groundbreaking 1999 book by fellow Google AI luminary Ray Kurzweil that predicts a future of superhuman AIs.
“There were two really important points in his book that I came to believe as true,” he explained. “One is that computational power would grow exponentially for at least a few decades. And that the quantity of data in the world would grow exponentially for a few decades.”
Paired with an understanding of the trends of the era, such as the deep learning method of teaching algorithms to “think” and process data the way human brains do, Legg wrote back at the start of the last decade that in the coming ones, AGI could well be achieved — so long as “nothing crazy happens like a nuclear war.”
Today, the DeepMind co-founder said that there are caveats to his prediction that the AGI era will be upon us by the end of this decade.
The first, broadly, is that definitions of AGI are reliant on definitions of human intelligence — and that kind of thing is difficult to test precisely because the way we think is complicated.
“You’ll never have a complete set of everything that people can do,” Legg said — things like developing episodic memory, or the ability to recall complete “episodes” that happened in the past, or even understanding streaming video. But if researchers could assemble a battery of tests for human intelligence and an AI model were to perform well enough against them, he continued, then “you have an AGI.”
When Patel asked if there could be a single simple test to see whether an AI system had reached general intelligence, such as beating Minecraft, Legg pushed back.
“There is no one thing that would do it, because I think that’s the nature of it,” the AGI expert said. “It’s about general intelligence. So I’d have to make sure [an AI system] could do lots and lots of different things and it didn’t have a gap.”
The second biggest caveat, Legg added, was the ability to scale AI training models way, way up — a worthy point given how much energy AI companies are already using to churn out large language models like OpenAI’s GPT-4.
“There’s a lot of incentive to make a more scalable algorithm to harness all this computing data,” Legg explained. “So I thought it would be very likely that we’ll start to discover scalable algorithms to do this.”
Asked where he thought we stand today on the path to AGI, Legg said that he thinks computational power is where it needs to be to make it happen, and the “first unlocking step” would be to “start training models now with the scale of the data that is beyond what a human can experience in a lifetime” — a feat he believes the AI industry is ready to achieve.
All that said, Legg reiterated his personal stance that he only believes there’s a 50 percent chance researchers will achieve AGI before the end of this decade, and Futurism has reached out to DeepMind to see if the Google subsidiary has anything to add to that prognosis.
“I think it’s entirely plausible,” he said, “but I’m not going to be surprised if it doesn’t happen by then.”
Science & Technology
James Webb Telescope captures clearest-ever view of exoplanet’s surface
Astronomers using NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope have obtained the clearest view yet of the surface of a rocky exoplanet, revealing a scorched, atmosphere-free world that scientists say resembles a giant version of Mercury.
The planet, known as LHS 3844 b and nicknamed “Kua’kua,” appears to be a barren, uninhabitable world with extreme temperature swings and no detectable atmosphere, according to a study published this week in Nature Astronomy.
Researchers said the planet’s surface is likely covered in dark volcanic rock and ancient regolith — loose rocky debris formed over billions of years from relentless bombardment by radiation and micrometeorite impacts.
“This planet is not a nice place,” said astronomer Laura Kreidberg, senior author of the study. “It’s a hellish, barren rock — much more similar to Mercury than Earth.”
Located about 49 light-years away, LHS 3844 b orbits a small red dwarf star and completes a full orbit every 11 hours. The planet is tidally locked, meaning one side permanently faces its star while the other remains in darkness — similar to how the Moon always shows the same face to Earth.
Scientists found the planet’s dayside reaches roughly 1,340 degrees Fahrenheit (725 degrees Celsius), while the nightside showed almost no detectable heat.
Using Webb’s infrared instruments, researchers were able to directly analyze light coming from the planet’s surface — a major breakthrough for exoplanet science.
“Different rocks have different spectral fingerprints,” said lead author Sebastian Zieba. “Dark volcanic rocks like basalt matched our observations much better than brighter rocks like granite.”
The findings mark a new phase in exoplanet research, shifting beyond atmospheric studies toward direct analysis of alien geology and surface composition.
Since becoming operational in 2022, the Webb telescope has transformed scientists’ understanding of planets beyond the solar system, helping identify atmospheric chemistry, weather patterns and now even the nature of distant planetary surfaces.
Researchers said the absence of an atmosphere on LHS 3844 b means there is little protection from stellar radiation and virtually no possibility of liquid water — a key ingredient for life.
“So overall, this is almost certainly not a habitable world,” Zieba said.
Science & Technology
Afghanistan launches first 5G trial in Kabul to boost telecom services
According to ministry spokesperson Enayatullah Alokozai, AWCC has upgraded 74 telecom antennas in Kabul to 5G on a trial basis.
Afghanistan has launched its first-ever 5G telecommunications trial in Kabul, marking a major milestone in efforts to modernise the country’s digital infrastructure.
The announcement followed a meeting between Hamdullah Nomani, Minister of Communications and Information Technology, and Aliullah Sarwari, head of the Afghan Wireless Communication Company (AWCC), where discussions focused on expanding telecom coverage, improving service quality, and extending connectivity to remote regions.
According to ministry spokesperson Enayatullah Alokozai, AWCC has upgraded 74 telecom antennas in Kabul to 5G on a trial basis. Once technical preparations and testing are completed, the company plans to extend 5G services to other provinces.
Officials also reported steady progress on broader infrastructure development. Eight telecom sites approved during previous official visits to northern and southeastern provinces have been completed, one is nearing completion, and construction continues on two additional sites expected to become operational soon.
In parallel, the Afghanistan Telecom Regulatory Authority (ATRA) has approved eight more telecom sites under the Telecom Development Fund (TDF), with implementation scheduled in the coming months.
Sarwari noted that since the beginning of 2026, AWCC has built and activated 46 telecom sites using its development budget, while work continues on a further 186 sites nationwide.
He also thanked the Ministry of Communications and Information Technology for its ongoing support in facilitating sector growth and improving service delivery.
Nomani meanwhile emphasised that telecommunications play a crucial role in national development and said the government remains committed to working closely with operators to expand modern, high-quality digital services.
Officials added that cooperation between the ministry, regulators, and telecom companies will continue across all operational and regulatory areas to strengthen Afghanistan’s communications network.
Science & Technology
NASA set for first crewed moon return in over half a century
NASA is preparing to launch the first crew of astronauts toward the moon in over 53 years with its second Artemis mission, a key test flight in humanity’s broader lunar goals as the U.S. races to reassert leadership in space faced with growing competition from China.
Three U.S. and one Canadian astronaut are due for liftoff aboard NASA’s Orion capsule and Space Launch System rocket on Wednesday for a 10-day test mission swinging around the moon and back, a winding journey taking them deeper into space than humans have ever gone before, Reuters reported.
The mission is the first crewed test flight in NASA’s Artemis program, the flagship U.S. effort to begin regular flights to the moon, at an estimated cost of at least $93 billion since 2012. Not since Apollo 17 in 1972 have humans touched down on the moon’s surface, a tricky feat NASA aims to repeat in 2028 at the rugged lunar south pole.
The U.S. is the only country to have put humans on another celestial body with its six lunar landings of the Apollo program, driven by competition with the former Soviet Union.
China, a formidable technological rival to the U.S., has made steady progress in its own moon program in recent years, with a string of robotic lunar landings and a 2030 goal to put its own crew on the surface. U.S. officials have focused on beating China to the surface.
ANSWERING ‘THE QUESTION OF OUR LIFETIME’
NASA astronaut Christina Koch, Artemis II mission specialist, on Sunday said the moon is a “witness plate” to the solar system’s formation, and a stepping stone to Mars, “where we might have the most likelihood of finding evidence of past life.”
“Many, many countries have recognized the value that there is in exploring further into the solar system, to the moon and on to Mars,” she told reporters. “They recognize that not only can we gain all these extremely tangible benefits, but that we have the opportunity to answer the question that could be the question of our lifetime, which is, are we alone?”
“Answering that question starts at the moon,” she said. “The question is not should we go, but should we lead, or should we follow?”
Through a series of increasingly advanced Artemis missions extending into the next decade, the U.S. aims to set precedent for how others will operate and coexist on the moon’s surface, where someday countries and companies can exploit rocky lunar resources and practice for much more difficult missions to Mars.
COMMERCIAL LUNAR MARKET
NASA is relying on an array of companies in its moon program with the hope of stimulating a commercial lunar market in the future, the value of which is hard to estimate, analysts say.
A PricewaterhouseCoopers report from January estimates $127 billion in revenues by 2050 from lunar surface activities, with investments potentially reaching $72 billion to $88 billion through the same period.
But for now, and in the near future, governments will drive companies’ lunar strategies and revenue. It will be a long time before commercial growth exists on the moon independently of government funding, said Akhil Rao, an economist at analysis firm Rational Futures who was a research economist at NASA.
“NASA did not see a short-run economic value that companies would be able to derive that would allow NASA to be hands-off,” said Rao, who was among a team of economists and space policy staff laid off last year amid the Trump administration’s sweeping federal workforce cuts.
The Artemis II mission will pose a greater test of NASA’s Orion capsule and SLS, which conducted a similar mission without crew in 2022. The astronauts on board will test critical life-support systems, crew interfaces, navigation and communications before NASA proceeds with more complex missions in the following years.
Liftoff is scheduled for April 1, though it could happen any day after until April 6, depending on weather conditions in Florida and any last-minute snags with the rocket. Thereafter, another launch window, determined largely by the orbital mechanics between Earth and the moon, opens on April 30.
Artemis III, the next mission planned for 2027, will involve the Orion capsule docking in Earth’s orbit with NASA’s two lunar landers – the Blue Moon system from Jeff Bezos’ Blue Origin and Starship from Elon Musk’s SpaceX. The delicate tag-up will demonstrate how the landers will pick up astronauts before heading for the moon’s surface.
That mission was added to the program in February by NASA’s new administrator, Jared Isaacman, a billionaire private astronaut who has more broadly shaken up the program with new objectives. His decision pushed the program’s first crewed lunar landing to Artemis IV.
The architecture is more complex than the Apollo missions, involving an array of companies funded by NASA with the hope of stimulating private competition and market activity around the moon. Boeing and Northrop Grumman lead SLS and Lockheed Martin builds Orion for NASA.
SpaceX and Blue Origin are developing their own landers with NASA funding but under different types of contracts that allow them to offer the spacecraft to other customers.
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