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Pakistan clinches last-gasp $3 billion IMF bailout

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Pakistan secured a badly-needed $3 billion short-term financial package from the International Monetary Fund on Friday, giving the South Asian economy respite as it teeters on the brink of default.

In a long-awaited decision for Pakistan, the IMF said it had reached a staff-level deal with the 220 million nation, which will now be subject to approval by its board in July.

The new nine-month standby arrangement came hours before a current IMF agreement expires, offering relief to Pakistan, which is battling an acute balance of payments crisis.

Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said it would put Pakistan “on the path of sustainable economic growth”.

With sky-high inflation and foreign exchange reserves barely enough to cover one month of controlled imports, which analysts say Pakistan’s economic crisis could have spiraled into a debt default in the absence of an IMF deal, Reuters reported.

The deal came only after Sharif held marathon meetings with IMF head Kristalina Georgieva on June 22, which he said represented “a turning point” as the fund’s managing director had not initially appeared very forthcoming.

Pakistan will receive formal documents on the deal later on Friday, Finance Minister Ishaq Dar told Reuters, which he said he would “sign, seal and return by tonight”.

The new deal, which Dar said on Thursday was expected soon, will disburse an upfront amount of $1.1 billion shortly after the IMF board’s meeting in July, he said.

Dar said Pakistan aimed to take the central bank’s foreign exchange reserves to $14 billion by the end of July. “We have stopped the decline, now we have to turn to growth,” he added.

Pakistan’s sovereign dollar bonds were trading higher after the announcement, with the 2024 issue enjoying the biggest gains, up more than 8 cents at just above 70 cents in the dollar, according to Tradeweb data.

The gains were most pronounced in shorter-dated bonds, reflecting lingering skepticism over the longer-term fiscal outlook for the country.

The $3 billion IMF funding is higher than expected as it looks set to replace the remaining $2.5 billion from a $6.5 billion longer-term Extended Fund Facility agreed in 2019.

The deal will also unlock other bilateral and multilateral financing. Long-time allies Saudi Arabia, the UAE and China have already pledged or rolled over billions of loans.

“This will support near-term policy efforts and replenish gross reserves,” the IMF said.

The new arrangement builds on the 2019 programme, IMF official Nathan Porter said in a statement, adding that Pakistan’s economy had faced several challenges in recent times, including devastating floods and rising commodity prices.

“Despite the authorities’ efforts to reduce imports and the trade deficit, reserves have declined to very low levels. Liquidity conditions in the power sector also remain acute,” Porter said.

“Given these challenges, the new arrangement would provide a policy anchor and a framework for financial support from multilateral and bilateral partners in the period ahead.”

Porter also pointed out the power sector’s buildup of arrears and frequent power outages, Reuters reported.

Reforms in the energy sector, which has accumulated nearly 3.6 trillion Pakistani rupees ($12.58 billion) in debt, has been a cornerstone of the IMF talks.

The IMF said it would want steadfast policy implementation by Pakistan to overcome challenges, “particularly in the energy sector”, where it expects a rise in electricity prices.

Dar confirmed that the hike will come ahead of the IMF board review of the bailout, saying the rebasing to be done in July will make about three to four rupees a unit difference.

“Reform does not, must not, mean raising tariff endlessly,” Pakistan’s Minister for Power Khurram Dastgir told Reuters.

With the tenure of the current government ending in August, Dastgir said it had put in place an “aggressive medium-to-long-term plan” to increase renewable energy which was only possible if long-term assistance is available.

Reforms taken

Islamabad has taken measures demanded by the IMF since its mission arrived in Pakistan earlier this year, including revising its 2023-24 budget and a key policy rate hike to 22% in recent days.

It also got Pakistan to raise more than 385 billion rupee ($1.34 billion) in new taxation to meet the IMF’s fiscal adjustments.

The IMF said the central bank should remain proactive to reduce inflation and maintain a foreign exchange framework.

The painful adjustments have already fuelled all time high inflation of 38% year-on-year in May.

“The FY24 budget advances a primary surplus of around 0.4 percent of GDP,” Porter said, adding it will be important that the budget is executed as planned, and authorities resist pressures for unbudgeted spending or tax exemptions.

“This new programme is far better than our expectations,” said Mohammed Sohail of Topline Securities in Karachi, adding there while were a lot of uncertainties on what would happen after a new government comes to power it would “definitely help restore some investor confidence”.

‘Tough journey’ ahead

Meanwhile, on Friday night, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif took to twitter and said while the IMF stand-by agreement “is a much-needed breather, which will help the country achieve economic stability, the nations are not built through loans. I pray for this new program to be the last one.”

He went on to thank Pakistan’s “friends & partners such as China, Saudi Arabia, UAE & Islamic Development Fund for standing by Pakistan at the time of massive economic challenges.

“Under a whole-of-the-government approach, we have worked out an Economic Revival Plan, which will focus on unlocking our strategic potential in agriculture, mine & minerals, defense production & information technology. The Plan will bring up investments of billions of dollars & create job opportunities for four million people.

“It may be a tough journey but as they say, ‘When the going gets tough, the tough gets going’,” he said.

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Trump rejects Iran’s response to US peace proposal as ‘unacceptable’

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President Donald Trump’s swift rejection of Iran’s response to a U.S. peace proposal ​sent oil prices surging higher on Monday amid concerns the 10-week-old conflict will drag on, keeping shipping through the Strait of Hormuz paralyzed.

Days ‌after the U.S. floated an offer in the hopes of re-opening negotiations, Iran on Sunday released a response focused on ending the war on all fronts, especially Lebanon, where U.S. ally Israel is fighting Iran-backed Hezbollah militants. Tehran also included a demand for compensation for war damages and emphasized Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian state TV said, Reuters reported.

It also called on the U.S. to ​end its naval blockade, guarantee no further attacks, lift sanctions and end a U.S. ban on Iranian oil sales, the semi-official Tasnim news agency said.

Within ​hours, Trump dismissed Iran’s proposal with a post on social media.

“I don’t like it — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE,” Trump wrote on Truth Social, ⁠without giving further detail.

The U.S. had proposed an end to fighting before starting talks on more contentious issues, including Iran’s nuclear program.

Oil prices jumped $3 a barrel on Monday ​following news of the continued stalemate that leaves the narrow Strait of Hormuz largely closed. Before the war the waterway carried one-fifth of the world’s oil supply and ​has emerged as one of the central pressure points in the war.

Surveys show the war is unpopular with U.S. voters facing sharply higher gasoline prices less than six months before nationwide elections that will determine whether Trump’s Republican party retains control of Congress.

The U.S. has also found little international support, with NATO allies refusing calls to send ships to open the Strait of Hormuz without a ​full peace deal and an internationally mandated mission.

It’s not clear what fresh diplomatic or military steps may be ahead.

Trump is expected to arrive in Beijing on Wednesday. ​With mounting pressure to draw a line under the war and the global energy crisis it has ignited, Iran is among topics Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping are set to ‌discuss.

Trump has ⁠been leaning on China to use its influence to push Tehran to make a deal with Washington.

Addressing whether combat operations against Iran were over, Trump said in remarks aired on Sunday: “They are defeated, but that doesn’t mean they’re done.”

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said the war was not over because there was “more work to be done” to remove enriched uranium from Iran, dismantle enrichment sites and address Iran’s proxies and ballistic missile capabilities.

The best way to remove the enriched uranium would be through diplomacy, Netanyahu ​said in an interview that aired Sunday on ​CBS News’ “60 Minutes.” But he did ⁠not rule out removing it by force.

Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian said in a social media post that Iran would “never bow down to the enemy” and would “defend national interests with strength.”

Despite diplomatic efforts to break a deadlock, the threat to shipping lanes and ​the economies of the region remained high.

Recent days have seen the biggest flare-ups in fighting in and around the strait since ​a ceasefire began.

On Sunday, ⁠the United Arab Emirates said it intercepted two drones coming from Iran, while Qatar condemned a drone attack that hit a cargo ship coming from Abu Dhabi in its waters. Kuwait said its air defences had dealt with hostile drones that entered its airspace.

Clashes have also continued in southern Lebanon between Israel and Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah, despite a ⁠U.S.-brokered ceasefire announced ​on April 16.

An end to hostilities with Iran would not necessarily bring an end to the ​war in Lebanon, Netanyahu said in the “60 Minutes” interview, in which he also said Israeli planners had underestimated Iran’s ability to choke off traffic through the Hormuz Strait.

“It took a while for them to understand ​how big that risk is, which they understand now,” he said.

 

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Fourteen Pakistani police officers killed in KP car bombing and shootout

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The death toll from a suicide attack on a security post in northwest Pakistan rose to 14 police officers, authorities said early Sunday.

A suicide bomber and several gunmen detonated an explosives-laden vehicle near the post in Bannu, a district in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, late Saturday, said senior police official Sajjad Khan. The attack triggered an intense shootout, and some officers were killed in the exchange, while others died later after the building collapsed, the Associated Press reported.

Rescuers conducted an hourslong search operation using heavy machinery to retrieve bodies from under the rubble, Khan said, adding that three police officers were wounded in the attack.

Security forces have also launched an operation to track down the perpetrators.

A newly formed militant group, Ittehad-ul-Mujahideen Pakistan, claimed responsibility for the attack.

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UAE countering Iranian air attack after Trump says ceasefire still in effect

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U.S. ally ​the United Arab Emirates said its air defences were engaging missile and drone threats from Iran early on Friday in a further ‌test of the shaky, month-long ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.

There were few details immediately available about the latest attack on the UAE, which came a day after the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire around the Strait of Hormuz, and as Washington awaited a response from Tehran to its proposal to end the conflict. Iran has often targeted the UAE and other Gulf countries that ​host U.S. bases since the war began on February 28, Reuters reported.

President Donald Trump said on Thursday three U.S. Navy destroyers were attacked as they ​moved through the strait, a conduit for around a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flows that Iran has ⁠all but closed since the conflict started.

“Three World Class American Destroyers just transited, very successfully, out of the Strait of Hormuz, under fire. There was no damage ​done to the three Destroyers, but great damage done to the Iranian attackers,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.

Trump later told reporters the ceasefire was still in effect and ​sought to play down the exchange.

“They trifled with us today. We blew them away,” Trump said in Washington.

Iran’s top joint military command accused the U.S. of violating the ceasefire by targeting an Iranian oil tanker and another ship, and of carrying out air attacks on civilian areas on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz and the nearby coastal areas of Bandar ​Khamir and Sirik on the mainland. The military said it responded by attacking U.S. military vessels east of the strait and south of the port of Chabahar.

A ​spokesperson for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters said the Iranian strikes inflicted “significant damage,” but U.S. Central Command said none of its assets were hit.

Iran’s Press TV later reported that, following ‌several hours ⁠of fire, “the situation on Iranian islands and coastal cities by the Strait of Hormuz is back to normal now.”

The two sides have occasionally exchanged gunfire since the ceasefire took effect on April 7, with Iran hitting targets in Gulf countries including the UAE.

Oil prices rose in early trade in Asia on Friday, with Brent crude jumping above $100 a barrel after the latest clashes between the U.S. and Iran.

TRUMP URGES NEGOTIATED END TO WAR

Trump suggested ongoing talks with Tehran remained on track despite Thursday’s ​hostilities, telling reporters, “We’re negotiating with the ​Iranians.”

Before the latest strikes, the U.S. ⁠had floated a proposal that would formally end the conflict but did not address key U.S. demands that Iran suspend its nuclear work and reopen the strait.

Tehran said it had not yet reached a decision on the emerging plan.

Even so, Trump said Tehran had ​acknowledged his demand that Iran could never get a nuclear weapon, a prohibition he said was spelled out in the ​U.S. proposal.

“There’s zero chance. ⁠And they know that, and they’ve agreed to that. Let’s see if they are willing to sign it,” Trump said.

Asked when any deal might be reached, Trump said, “It might not happen, but it could happen any day. I believe they want to deal more than I do.”

The war has tested Trump’s relationship with his U.S. base of ⁠supporters, after he ​had campaigned against involving the United States in foreign wars and promised to bring down fuel ​prices.

Average U.S. gasoline prices have climbed more than 40% since late February, rising by about $1.20 a gallon to more than $4, according to data from the American Automobile Association, as disruptions to oil shipments ​through the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude oil prices higher.

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