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Peace talks ‘under threat’ as Taliban prepare for major spring offensive

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Unusually intense fighting in the winter by Taliban insurgents has spurred Afghan government preparations for more violence in the warmer spring, which international players fear will further endanger the nation’s fragile peace process, Reuters reported.

This comes after a sharp increase in attacks by the group since the signing of the US-Taliban agreement in Doha in February last year. 

General Scott Miller, the head of US forces and the NATO-led Resolute Support mission told Reuters that “Taliban violence is much higher than historical norms.”

“It just doesn’t create the conditions to move forward in what is hopefully a historic turning point for Afghanistan,” he said.

Typically fighting quietens down during the snowy winter months before the Taliban launch a “spring offensive” around March. However, this winter, fighting has been intense. 

Miller said that the fighting now was an indicator that not only would there be a spring offensive – a move many diplomats view as against the spirit of the Doha agreement – but that it could be more intense than before, Reuters reported.

This also comes as negotiations have largely stalled in Doha in recent weeks and Taliban leaders have left Qatar, a senior state department official said, leading to growing fears that talks could be on the brink of collapse.

“If the violence isn’t reduced, it’s going to make a peace process very, very difficult; it would be very difficult for any side to make the necessary compromises,” Miller said.

The Afghan government has instructed security forces to carry out a comprehensive troop restructuring and design operations to prepare for a “tough and hard” spring offensive, two government sources told Reuters.

They added that Afghanistan’s special forces from different institutions such as the military and police are being streamlined to operate under one command. Highly experienced commanders have been appointed to key areas, and security forces were planning to conduct more airstrikes to avoid losses on the ground.

An Afghan National Security Council spokesman said they were “ready for any kind of war”, though they remained in “active defence” mode.

Four Taliban sources said that most of their commanders had in recent weeks cut short annual training sessions after being called back to the battlefield to prepare for intensive fighting.

Three residents in areas dominated by the Taliban in north-eastern Afghanistan had noticed a pick-up in the group’s activity in recent weeks, telling Reuters they had seen Taliban fighters moving en masse, holding meetings in mosques and beginning food and recruitment drives.

“In the past two weeks the topics Taliban preachers preach, especially on Friday prayers… have changed,” said a tribal elder from Kunduz province who asked not to be named for security reasons. “They preach about… fighting against invasion, and they openly invite people to join them. It’s a clear message that they are preparing for another fight this spring.”

A member of what the Taliban considers its special forces told Reuters that the group was preparing to act when there was an announcement about foreign troops.

“If they don’t leave Afghanistan on the preset date then the USA, NATO and the world will face a dangerous war, a war that never happened in the past 20 years,” he said.

A Taliban spokesman did not reply to a request for comment on the spring offensive.

The administration of US President Joe Biden is reviewing its plans for Afghanistan, including whether to stick to the May 1 deadline in the troop withdrawal agreement former President Trump’s administration signed with the Taliban in February 2020.

Miller said his command recognised that foreign forces could be a target if the Taliban view the deal as breached.

Experts and diplomats see a vanishing window of opportunity for talks to survive, although sides say they are committed negotiating, Reuters reported.

“Talks seem already very close to falling apart,” said Ashley Jackson, co-director of the Centre for the Study of Armed Groups at the Overseas Development Institute. “The trouble is that (Washington) seems to grossly underestimate just how bad things could get and how quickly that could happen.”

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Russia deems US military presence in Afghanistan unacceptable

Kabulov’s remarks came in response to growing concerns regarding the U.S. military’s presence in the Middle East, particularly amid rising tensions with Iran.

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Russia has strongly condemned any potential return of U.S. military forces to Afghanistan, specifically the possibility of reopening Bagram Air Base, calling such moves “categorically unacceptable.” The statement was made by Zamir Kabulov, the Russian President’s special representative for Afghanistan and senior adviser to the Russian Foreign Ministry, in an interview with RIA Novosti.

Kabulov emphasized that Moscow opposes the establishment of any U.S. or NATO military infrastructure on Afghan soil or in neighboring regions, under any pretext. He also expressed hope that the Taliban-led government in Afghanistan, known as the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, would share Russia’s stance on the issue.

Kabulov’s remarks came in response to growing concerns regarding the U.S. military’s presence in the Middle East, particularly amid rising tensions with Iran. There have been reports suggesting that the U.S. might seek access to Bagram Air Base again as part of a strategic pivot in the region.

Recalling the previous administration under former U.S. President Donald Trump, Kabulov noted that the U.S. had persistently sought to regain control of Bagram Air Base following its chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan in August 2021. “There is nothing new in these demands,” Kabulov stated, referring to the ongoing push by the U.S. to re-establish a military foothold in the region.

Russia’s firm stance reflects its broader geopolitical concerns regarding the influence of the U.S. and NATO near its borders, particularly in Central Asia and Afghanistan.

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Over 2.13 million Afghan refugees repatriated from Pakistan

Officials say over 150,000 individuals were returned from Punjab alone, where enforcement efforts are being led by the Punjab Home Department’s Foreign National Security Cell.

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More than 2.13 million Afghan nationals have been repatriated from Pakistan to Afghanistan as part of an ongoing campaign targeting undocumented foreign residents, according to Pakistani authorities cited by local media.

Officials say over 150,000 individuals were returned from Punjab alone, where enforcement efforts are being led by the Punjab Home Department’s Foreign National Security Cell. The campaign includes inspections of thousands of residential areas and hundreds of markets, resulting in numerous detentions and legal cases against Afghan nationals found without valid documentation.

The repatriation process comes amid heightened tensions along key border crossings between the two countries. Hundreds of migrants have recently been sent back via the Chaman crossing, particularly during disruptions at other transit points.

The Torkham crossing—a major gateway for cross-border movement—has faced repeated closures. Although it briefly reopened, local officials in Nangarhar Province report that it was shut again after only a few hours. Authorities in Pakistan have not provided a clear explanation for the latest closure.

According to Sediqullah Quraishi, head of Nangarhar’s Information Department, the crossing was opened temporarily on Thursday before being closed again without official clarification.

Meanwhile, hundreds of Afghan migrants remain in temporary holding centers across Punjab, where they are undergoing registration and processing ahead of their return to Afghanistan. The large-scale repatriation effort continues to raise humanitarian and logistical concerns, particularly as border access remains unpredictable.

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Human Rights Watch calls Pakistani airstrike on Kabul rehab center ‘unlawful’

Patricia Gossman, senior associate Asia director at Human Rights Watch, said available evidence suggests the strike hit a well-known civilian medical facility.

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Human Rights Watch has condemned a recent Pakistani airstrike on a rehabilitation facility in Kabul, calling it “unlawful” and warning it could amount to a war crime.

The strike, which reportedly took place on March 16, targeted the Omid Drug Rehabilitation Center, located within the former Camp Phoenix complex in eastern Kabul. According to international agencies, at least 143 people were killed and more than 250 others injured, most of them patients undergoing treatment.

Patricia Gossman, senior associate Asia director at Human Rights Watch, said available evidence suggests the strike hit a well-known civilian medical facility.

“The available evidence indicates that the Pakistani airstrike against a well-known Kabul medical facility killing dozens of patients was unlawful,” she said, adding that authorities must determine why the site was targeted and who should be held accountable.

An employee of the center told the organization that three buildings were struck, including a dining hall, a residential building housing hundreds of patients, and a guard post. At the time of the attack, more than 1,000 patients were reportedly at the facility, many gathered to break their fast during Ramadan.

Human Rights Watch said satellite imagery and visual evidence show extensive destruction across the compound, with multiple structures either destroyed or severely damaged. The organization added that it found no indication the facility was being used for military purposes.

Under international humanitarian law, medical facilities are afforded special protection. The group stressed that attacks failing to distinguish between civilian and military targets, or those causing disproportionate civilian harm, may constitute serious violations of the laws of war.

Human Rights Watch has called on Pakistan to carry out a prompt, impartial investigation and ensure accountability if violations are confirmed.

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