Afghanistan’s ban on opium cultivation has triggered a shift in production towards neighbouring Pakistan and Iran, turning parts of the three countries’ borderlands into a growing centre for the illicit drug trade, according to experts.

Opium production in Afghanistan has fallen sharply since the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) imposed a sweeping ban on poppy cultivation in 2022. However, cultivation has not been eliminated, while satellite imagery and interviews with farmers suggest production is expanding across Pakistan’s Balochistan province and Iran’s Sistan-Baluchistan region.

David Mansfield, a UK-based expert on Afghanistan’s illicit drug industry, told RFE/RL the combination of the ban and growing instability along the shared borders had created conditions for widespread poppy cultivation in Pakistan and Iran.

He warned that production could rise further in 2027, potentially increasing international heroin supplies, generating revenue for armed groups and intensifying regional violence.

Pakistan emerges as a major cultivation hub

Pakistan’s southwestern Balochistan province appears to have become a key centre of opium cultivation in the border region, despite Islamabad’s denials of widespread production.

Satellite analysis by British firm Alcis identified more than 9,000 hectares of poppy cultivation in Balochistan, with much of it concentrated in the districts of Loralai and Killa Abdullah.

The findings contrast with estimates from the United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime, which has described opium production in Pakistan as marginal. The agency acknowledged, however, that limited data from countries surrounding Afghanistan makes it difficult to establish the full extent of cultivation.

Local farmers told Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty that poppy farming had expanded as drought, insecurity and declining returns from conventional crops undermined agricultural livelihoods.

The shift has also been encouraged by Afghan farmers who have crossed the border to lease land and work with local growers. Farmers from Afghanistan’s Kandahar and Helmand provinces are reportedly bringing their experience and investment into the region.

Some growers have invested in solar-powered wells, while poppies offer more lucrative returns than traditional crops and can be harvested twice a year.

Mansfield said some farmers had doubled the land devoted to poppy cultivation in 2026, raising concerns about a further expansion next year.

Poppy cultivation spreads across Iran

A similar trend is emerging in Iran, where Afghan farmers are reportedly working as tenants and sharecroppers, drawing on family and community connections across the border.

Cultivation has been reported in several Iranian provinces, including Razavi Khorasan, Kermanshah, Lorestan and Fars. Sistan-Baluchistan, one of the country’s poorest provinces, appears to remain the main production centre.

Satellite imagery from 2026 indicates extensive poppy fields in parts of the province, with some farms using drip irrigation — an investment that may suggest growers expect a relatively low risk of eradication, RFE/RL  reported.

According to Mansfield, cultivation is increasingly shifting from mixed farming to large-scale production in which entire plots are devoted to poppies.

Iran’s authorities have also been grappling with wider security and political pressures, while separatist and militant activity has intensified in Sistan-Baluchistan. Experts warn that the combination of economic hardship, insecurity and limited enforcement could encourage further expansion in 2027.

Opium cultivation persists in Afghanistan

RFE/RL meanwhile also reported that despite the ban, poppy cultivation is also showing signs of a resurgence inside Afghanistan.

Production remains concentrated in Badakhshan province in the northeast, which is estimated to account for around half of the country’s opium output, alongside several southwestern provinces.

Drought, mounting debt and economic hardship have pushed some farmers to defy the restrictions, while enforcement campaigns have triggered protests in affected communities.

Mansfield said cultivation remained widespread across both rain-fed and irrigated land in Badakhshan in 2026. In southwestern Afghanistan, cultivation almost doubled between 2025 and 2026, although it remained concentrated in remote areas and was sometimes concealed within wheat fields or behind household walls.

Authorities have also issued a directive prohibiting searches of homes for poppy or opium without a court order, a measure that experts view as a possible concession amid the risk of further unrest.

Mansfield warned that farmers could interpret the restriction as a sign that cultivation would be tolerated in areas beyond the reach of enforcement.

The developments point to a shifting regional drug economy, with production moving across borders rather than disappearing. Experts say the expansion of opium cultivation in Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iran could strengthen illicit networks, provide funding for armed groups and worsen insecurity across an already volatile region.