Business
Liquidity crisis at core of Afghanistan’s economic challenges: SIGAR

Afghanistan continued to face a severe liquidity crisis this quarter with access to physical bank notes constrained and banks facing major liquidity challenges due to declining economic activity, lack of trust in the banking center among Afghans, and an inability to transact internationally.
The US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan (SIGAR) said in its latest quarterly report that Da Afghanistan Bank (DAB), Afghanistan’s central bank, will require significant technical support from the international community to tackle these challenges.
The report stated that prior to the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’s (IEA) takeover in August last year, Afghanistan’s financial system had been underdeveloped relative to the context of its growth in recent decades, with a low assets-to-GDP ratio and a heavily dollarized banking system.
Approximately 60% of deposits in the country were made in foreign currency. The report stated that in this monetary environment, maintaining financial stability requires both domestic currency (AFN) liquidity and, more importantly, foreign exchange (FX) liquidity.
However, DAB is limited in its ability to control the AFN monetary supply and value due to several factors including the lack of domestic technical capabilities to print currency, which Afghanistan outsources to foreign companies.
“For years, DAB would prop up the value of the afghani (AFN) by regularly auctioning US dollars pulled from its foreign reserves. Prior to August 2021, Afghanistan’s central bank reportedly received quarterly shipments of $249 million in US banknotes from its foreign reserves. This stopped after the Taliban (IEA) takeover prompted the United States to place a hold on US-based Afghan central bank reserves.
“The loss of these US dollar transfers and other sources of foreign currency plunged Afghanistan’s financial system into free fall,” SIGAR stated.
With Afghanistan’s international reserves, including banking sector foreign exchange deposits at the DAB, frozen; the SWIFT system and international settlements suspended; grant transfers suspended; and AFN liquidity printing interrupted, a dramatic adverse shock in the financial and payment systems ensued.
The resulting liquidity crisis has caused salary disruptions for hundreds of thousands of government employees, teachers, and health-care workers, and has imposed limitations on the operations of international aid groups in the country.
“The banking system is totally paralyzed. The central bank is not operating,” according to Robert Mardini, director general for the International Committee of the Red Cross as cited by SIGAR.
Mardini said that his organization is instead paying 10,000 doctors and nurses via the informal hawala money-transfer system.
This has also contributed to a worsening domestic credit market. In the absence of international support, banks have ceased extending new credit to small- and medium-sized enterprises.
In recent months, the increased supply of US dollars from humanitarian channels, averaging around $150 million per month, has helped stabilize the value of the afghani.
However, these humanitarian channels are viewed as stopgap measures that are an insufficient substitute for the normal functioning of a central bank, SIGAR stated.
In her March 2 statement to the UN Security Council, UNAMA head Deborah Lyons cited the “lack of access to hard currency reserves, lack of liquidity, and constraints on the central bank to carry out some of its core functions” as key challenges to reviving the Afghan economy.
Total international DAB reserves were $9.76 billion at the end of 2020, according to the most recent data available to the IMF. Of this amount, $2 billion was deposited in financial institutions in the United Kingdom, Germany, Switzerland, and the United Arab Emirates.
Some $7 billion in DAB reserve funds deposited at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York are now frozen by the US government.
Economists at New York University and the University of Chicago suggested that if central-bank reserves were placed directly with households or with other financial intermediaries, it could enhance the desired increase in liquidity.
Liquidity is a concern for households as well as for the banking system and businesses. Raising household liquidity in Afghanistan is challenged by rising unemployment, the fact that only 10–20% of Afghans have bank accounts, the uncertain status of DAB’s electronic payment system and the declining volume of market transactions as reflected in the country’s declining GDP.
SIGAR stated however that the Biden Administration is currently exploring possible avenues for disbursing $3.5 billion of the frozen assets for humanitarian relief efforts, possibly through a separate trust fund or by providing support through the United Nations or another enabling organization.
US Special Representative for Afghanistan Thomas West has stated that the $3.5 billion could alternatively contribute toward “the potential recapitalization of a future central bank [in Afghanistan] and the recapitalization of a financial system.”
The move to freeze assets meanwhile sparked outrage throughout Afghan society, including among leaders unaffiliated with the IEA.
Shah Mehrabi, a long-time member of the Afghan central bank’s board of governors, called the decision “unconscionable” and “short-sighted.”
Mehrabi argued that the central bank should be treated as independent of the IEA regime, and that depriving the bank of its reserves could lead to “total collapse of the banking system” and further hurt millions of Afghans suffering in the economic and humanitarian crises.
The order to freeze assets has also drawn criticism from US and international policy analysts, human rights groups, lawyers, and financial experts, SIGAR reported.
Analysts have expressed concern over both the seizure of the reserves and the reported proposals to provide those funds in the form of humanitarian assistance.
Paul Fishstein of NYU’s Center on International Cooperation argues that the executive order gave inadequate attention to the macroeconomic collapse of the country.
Fishstein said the release of the central bank’s reserves could instead be used to restore unnecessary exchange rate stability and ease the liquidity crisis.
William Byrd of the US Institute of Peace (USIP) said that even if only half of DAB’s total reserves are devoted to support its basic activities as a central bank, it would “provide an opportunity to make a start toward stabilizing the economy and private sector.”
Business
Gold climbs to record high as tariff worries bolster safe-haven demand

Gold’s record run extended to another all-time high on Tuesday, buoyed by safe-haven demand as investors brace for U.S. President Donald Trump’s planned announcement on reciprocal tariffs.
Spot gold was up 0.3% at $3,131.56 an ounce at 0914 GMT, after hitting a record high of $3,148.88 earlier, Reuters reported.
U.S. gold futures were 0.3% higher at $3,159.10.
“Trump’s tariff comments and his increasingly volatile stance on Russia’s war against Ukraine are proving the perfect chaos for new record gold prices,” surpassing even the COVID pandemic five years ago, said Adrian Ash, head of research at online marketplace BullionVault.
Trump said on Sunday his reciprocal tariffs to be announced on Wednesday would include all countries, rather than a limited number.
Goldman Sachs on Monday raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 35% from 20% and said it expected more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as Trump’s tariffs roil the global economy and upend financial markets.
Gold, traditionally seen as a hedge against uncertainty and inflation, has risen more than 15% this year. Non-yielding bullion also tends to do well in a low interest rate environment.
“The market is watching April 2 closely for further economic indicators that could impact Federal Reserve policy decisions. If rate cuts are confirmed, this would provide additional support for gold’s upward trajectory,” said Alexander Zumpfe, a precious metals trader at Heraeus Metals Germany.
Bullion’s rally this year has also been supported by strong demand from central banks, geopolitical instability in the Middle East and Europe, and increased flows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds.
In the last session, gold closed out its strongest quarter since 1986, and climbed over $3,100/oz, marking one of the most significant upswings in the precious metal’s history.
Investors will also monitor U.S. job openings data later on Tuesday and the U.S. non-farm payrolls report on Friday.
Silver steadied at $34.06 an ounce, platinum fell 0.4% to $988.35, and palladium gained 0.3% to $985.86.
Business
Efforts underway to expand Afghanistan’s trade relations with India
A number of investors also suggest that the Islamic Emirate should actively participate in regional and trade fairs to increase exports, so that Afghan products can be marketed in regional and global markets.

The Ministry of Industry and Commerce says that efforts are underway to expand trade relations with India, the volume of which reaches $650 million annually.
Abdulsalam Jawad Akhundzada, a spokesman for the Ministry of Industry and Commerce, says that India is also interested in expanding trade relations with Afghanistan, and Kabul has also taken steps in this regard by using Chabahar Port, and talks have been held with the Indian side on visas.
The Chamber of Commerce and Investment also says that trade relations between Afghanistan and India are expanding and these relations are strengthening with each passing day. According to officials of the chamber, Afghanistan has exported goods worth $500 million to India in the past year.
A number of investors also suggest that the Islamic Emirate should actively participate in regional and trade fairs to increase exports, so that Afghan products can be marketed in regional and global markets.
According to investors, once the visa issues with India are resolved, a large portion of the country’s fresh and dried fruits will be exported to India because India is a good market for Afghan fruits in the region.
Investors want the Islamic Emirate to pave the way for increased exports to India through Chabahar Port.
Business
36 mining contracts inked over the past year: Mines ministry

The Ministry of Mines and Petroleum says it has signed 36 large and small mining contracts, with a total value of $1.3 billion over the past year.
Officials from the ministry stated that these contracts include 10 large mines, 25 small mines, as well as projects related to cement, salt, marble, and a major gas extraction contract with Uzbekistan, all signed with both domestic and foreign companies.
Meanwhile, economic experts have emphasized the importance of increasing investments in the mining sector for the country’s economic growth. They have stressed that priority in mining contracts should be given to domestic companies.
“It is better to prioritize domestic investors over foreign ones,” said Kamaluddin Kakar, an economic expert.
In the meantime, members of the private sector also stated that if both foreign companies and Afghan investors can partner in the mining sector, this will not only foster investment development in the country but also bring positive changes in capacity building within the mining extraction sector.
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