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Climate Change

Rising Antarctic ice melt will dramatically slow global ocean flows, study finds

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(Last Updated On: March 30, 2023)

Rapidly melting Antarctic ice is dramatically slowing down the flow of water through the world’s oceans, and could have a disastrous impact on global climate, the marine food chain and even the stability of ice shelves, new research has found, Reuters reported.

The “overturning circulation” of the oceans, driven by the movement of denser water towards the sea floor, helps deliver heat, carbon, oxygen and vital nutrients around the globe.

But deep ocean water flows from the Antarctic could decline by 40% by 2050, according to a study published on Wednesday in the journal Nature.

“That’s stunning to see that happen so quickly,” said Alan Mix, a paleoclimatologist at Oregon State University and co-author on the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessments, who was not involved in the study. “It appears to be kicking into gear right now. That’s headline news.”

As temperatures rise, freshwater from Antarctica’s melting ice enters the ocean, reducing the salinity and density of the surface water and diminishing that downward flow to the sea’s bottom, read the report.

While past research has looked at what could happen to similar overturning circulation in the North Atlantic – the mechanism behind the doomsday scenario that would see Europe suffer from an Arctic blast as heat transport falters – less has been done on Antarctic bottom water circulation.

Scientists relied on around 35 million computing hours over two years to crank through a variety of models and simulations up to the middle of this century, finding deepwater circulation in the Antarctic could weaken at twice the rate of decline in the North Atlantic.

“They are massive volumes of water… and they are bits of the ocean that have been stable for a long time,” said study co-author Matthew England, an oceanographer at the University of New South Wales, in a news briefing.

The effect of meltwater on global ocean circulation has not yet been included in the complex models used by the IPCC to describe future climate change scenarios, but it is going to be considerable, England said.

Ocean overturning allows nutrients to rise up from the bottom, with the Southern Ocean supporting about three-quarters of global phytoplankton production, the base of the food chain, said a second study co-author, Steve Rintoul.

“If we slow the sinking near Antarctica, we slow down the whole circulation and so we also reduce the amount of nutrients that get returned from the deep ocean back up to the surface,” said Rintoul, a fellow at Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO).

The study’s findings also suggest the ocean would not be able to absorb as much carbon dioxide as its upper layers become more stratified, leaving more CO2 in the atmosphere, Reuters reported.

The study showed that warm water intrusions in the western Antarctican ice shelf would increase, but it did not look at how this might create a feedback effect and generate even more melting.

“It doesn’t include the disaster scenarios,” said Mix. “In that sense, it’s actually kind of conservative.”

Climate Change

UN sounds ‘Red Alert’ as world smashes heat records in 2023

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(Last Updated On: March 20, 2024)

Every major global climate record was broken last year and 2024 could be worse, the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said on Tuesday, with its chief voicing particular concern about ocean heat and shrinking sea ice, Reuters reported.

The U.N. weather agency said in its annual State of the Global Climate report that average temperatures hit the highest level in 174 years of record-keeping by a clear margin, reaching 1.45 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels.

Ocean temperatures also reached the warmest in 65 years of data with over 90% of the seas having experienced heatwave conditions during the year, the WMO said, harming food systems.

“The WMO community is sounding the Red Alert to the world,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo, who took over the job in January.

“What we witnessed in 2023, especially with the unprecedented ocean warmth, glacier retreat and Antarctic sea ice loss, is cause for particular concern.”

She later told reporters that ocean heat was particularly concerning because it was “almost irreversible”, possibly taking millennia to reverse.

“The trend is really very worrying and that is because of the characteristics of water that keep heat content for longer than the atmosphere,” she said.

Climate change, driven by the burning of fossil fuels, coupled with the emergence of the natural El Nino climate pattern, pushed the world into record territory in 2023, read the report.

WMO’s head of climate monitoring, Omar Baddour, told reporters there was a “high probability” that 2024 would set new heat records, saying that the year after an El Nino was typically warmer still.

Tuesday’s report showed a big plunge in Antarctic sea ice, with the peak level measured at 1 million km2 below the previous record – an area roughly equivalent to the size of Egypt.

That trend, combined with ocean warming which causes water to expand, has contributed to a more than doubling of the rate of sea-level rise over the past decade compared with the 1993-2002 period, it said.

Ocean heat was concentrated in the North Atlantic with temperatures an average 3 degrees Celsius above average in late 2023, the report said. Warmer ocean temperatures affect delicate marine ecosystems and many fish species have fled north from this area seeking cooler temperatures, Reuters reported.

Saulo, a meteorologist from Argentina who has promised to strengthen global warning systems for climate disasters, said she hoped the report would raise awareness of the “vital need to scale up the urgency and ambition of climate action”.

“That’s why we spoke about the Red Alert because we must care for the people and how they will suffer from these more frequent, more extreme events,” she told reporters. “If we do nothing, things will become worse and that will be our responsibility.”

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Climate Change

Pakistan, India and Bangladesh bottom in air quality rankings in 2023

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(Last Updated On: March 19, 2024)

Pakistan remained one of the world’s three smoggiest countries in 2023, as Bangladesh and India replaced Chad and Iran, with particulate matter about 15 times the level recommended by the World Health Organization, data published on Tuesday showed.

Average concentrations of PM2.5 – small airborne particles that damage the lungs – reached 79.9 micrograms per cubic meter in Bangladesh in 2023, and 73.7 micrograms in Pakistan. The WHO recommends no more than 5 micrograms.

“Because of the climate conditions and the geography (in South Asia), you get this streak of PM2.5 concentrations that just skyrocket because the pollution has nowhere to go,” said Christi Chester Schroeder, air quality science manager at IQAir, a Swiss air-monitoring organisation.

“On top of that are factors such as agricultural practices, industry and population density,” she added. “Unfortunately, it really does look like it will get worse before it gets better.”

In 2022, Bangladesh was ranked as having the fifth-worst air quality, and India was eighth.

About 20% of premature deaths in Bangladesh are attributed to air pollution, and related healthcare costs amount to 4%-5% of the country’s GDP, said Md Firoz Khan, an air pollution expert at Dhaka’s North South University.

Indian pollution also increased last year, with PM2.5 levels about 11 times higher than the WHO standard. India’s New Delhi was the worst-performing capital city, at 92.7 micrograms.

Only Australia, Estonia, Finland, Grenada, Iceland, Mauritius and New Zealand met WHO standards in 2023.

The IQAir report was based on data from more than 30,000 monitoring stations in 134 countries and regions.

Chad, the world’s most polluted country in 2022, was excluded from the 2023 listings because of data issues. Iran and Sudan were also taken off the 2023 list.

Afghanistan was meanwhile not included on the list.

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Climate Change

In Bolivia, heavy rains prompt authorities to declare state of emergency

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(Last Updated On: March 11, 2024)

Heavy rain in Bolivia’s capital, La Paz, prompted authorities to declare a state of emergency, a government document showed on Sunday, after overflowing rivers destroyed many houses over the weekend.

Bolivian President Luis Arce pledged to send heavy machinery and 3,000 troops to prevent further damage, according to the document, Reuters reported.

Heavy rains caused flooding in several neighborhoods and isolated parts of the city by cutting water, electricity and roads.

“We are deeply concerned by the difficult situation that our municipality in La Paz is going through,” Arce said in a post on social media platform X.

One person died over the weekend in La Paz because of the heavy rains, while nearly 50 people have died in deluges across the country since the rainy season began in January, according to official data.

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