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Climate Change

Rising Antarctic ice melt will dramatically slow global ocean flows, study finds

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Rapidly melting Antarctic ice is dramatically slowing down the flow of water through the world’s oceans, and could have a disastrous impact on global climate, the marine food chain and even the stability of ice shelves, new research has found, Reuters reported.

The “overturning circulation” of the oceans, driven by the movement of denser water towards the sea floor, helps deliver heat, carbon, oxygen and vital nutrients around the globe.

But deep ocean water flows from the Antarctic could decline by 40% by 2050, according to a study published on Wednesday in the journal Nature.

“That’s stunning to see that happen so quickly,” said Alan Mix, a paleoclimatologist at Oregon State University and co-author on the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessments, who was not involved in the study. “It appears to be kicking into gear right now. That’s headline news.”

As temperatures rise, freshwater from Antarctica’s melting ice enters the ocean, reducing the salinity and density of the surface water and diminishing that downward flow to the sea’s bottom, read the report.

While past research has looked at what could happen to similar overturning circulation in the North Atlantic – the mechanism behind the doomsday scenario that would see Europe suffer from an Arctic blast as heat transport falters – less has been done on Antarctic bottom water circulation.

Scientists relied on around 35 million computing hours over two years to crank through a variety of models and simulations up to the middle of this century, finding deepwater circulation in the Antarctic could weaken at twice the rate of decline in the North Atlantic.

“They are massive volumes of water… and they are bits of the ocean that have been stable for a long time,” said study co-author Matthew England, an oceanographer at the University of New South Wales, in a news briefing.

The effect of meltwater on global ocean circulation has not yet been included in the complex models used by the IPCC to describe future climate change scenarios, but it is going to be considerable, England said.

Ocean overturning allows nutrients to rise up from the bottom, with the Southern Ocean supporting about three-quarters of global phytoplankton production, the base of the food chain, said a second study co-author, Steve Rintoul.

“If we slow the sinking near Antarctica, we slow down the whole circulation and so we also reduce the amount of nutrients that get returned from the deep ocean back up to the surface,” said Rintoul, a fellow at Australia’s Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO).

The study’s findings also suggest the ocean would not be able to absorb as much carbon dioxide as its upper layers become more stratified, leaving more CO2 in the atmosphere, Reuters reported.

The study showed that warm water intrusions in the western Antarctican ice shelf would increase, but it did not look at how this might create a feedback effect and generate even more melting.

“It doesn’t include the disaster scenarios,” said Mix. “In that sense, it’s actually kind of conservative.”

Climate Change

Afghanistan among world’s five most climate-vulnerable countries

Meanwhile, Shir Ahmad Haqqani, Minister of Information and Culture, highlighted the important role of media organisations in reporting the negative impacts of climate change.

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Afghanistan ranks among the five countries most vulnerable to the impacts of climate change, despite contributing little to global greenhouse gas emissions, the head of the country’s National Environmental Protection Agency has said.

Matiul Haq Khalis, Director General of the National Environmental Protection Agency (NEPA), made the remarks at a scientific conference in Kabul, saying Afghanistan could rank as the world’s third most climate-vulnerable country if comprehensive global research is conducted.

The conference, titled “Afghanistan’s Media and Climate Diplomacy: Opportunities and Challenges,” was organised at a private university and brought together government officials and media representatives to discuss the country’s climate challenges.

Khalis stressed that Afghanistan faces serious climate-related risks despite having a negligible role in producing global greenhouse gas emissions.

Meanwhile, Shir Ahmad Haqqani, Minister of Information and Culture, highlighted the important role of media organisations in reporting the negative impacts of climate change.

He called on media outlets to take a more active role in raising public awareness and informing communities about climate-related challenges.

Media representatives attending the conference also expressed their readiness to cooperate with government institutions in public awareness campaigns and efforts to address the consequences of climate change.

The discussions come ahead of an international climate conference scheduled to take place in Türkiye, where Afghan representatives have also been invited to participate and present the country’s views, with the aim of drawing greater international attention to Afghanistan’s climate challenges.

However, several international projects aimed at supporting climate change mitigation and adaptation efforts in Afghanistan have currently been suspended, raising concerns about the country’s ability to respond effectively to growing environmental threats.

The conference highlighted the importance of stronger media engagement, international cooperation and continued support for Afghanistan as it faces increasing climate-related challenges.

These developments come as a climate change conference is set to be held in Turkey in one day’s time; representatives from Afghanistan have also been invited to participate, present their perspectives, and draw the international community’s attention to the country’s climate situation.

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Climate Change

90 million displaced people at risk from climate threats, UN refugee agency says

In ​the first half of 2026, more than two-thirds of refugee returns were to countries highly exposed to climate hazards, placing them ​at risk of renewed displacement, the report said.

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Nearly 90 million forcibly displaced people are living in countries increasingly exposed to climate-related ​droughts, floods and extreme heat, the UN refugee agency said on Friday, warning ahead of the COP31 climate ‌summit that more funding is needed to help vulnerable communities adapt.

Nearly three-quarters of the world’s forcibly displaced people are living in countries such as Afghanistan and Bangladesh that are exposed to severe climate-related risks, according to the report by the agency, known as UNHCR, published ahead of the UN ​Climate Change Conference in Antalya, Turkey. The findings show the overlap between conflict, displacement and climate change, the report ​said.

“Climate adaptation in fragile and displacement-affected areas is a matter of survival,” said Anton Leis Garcia, UNHCR’s ⁠assistant high commissioner for operations.

“We need climate financing to reach the communities where the needs are greatest,” he said.

The report ​highlighted the experience of a Sudanese refugee who fled conflict in al-Fashir in June 2023 to the Farchana refugee settlement in eastern ​Chad. The refugee said she sometimes goes a week without finding safe water and must walk increasingly long distances for alternative sources as nearby seasonal riverbeds dry up amid intensifying heat.

RETURNS AT RISK

It also warned that climate change is making it harder for displaced people to return home sustainably.

In ​the first half of 2026, more than two-thirds of refugee returns were to countries highly exposed to climate hazards, placing them ​at risk of renewed displacement, the report said.

In Syria, where nearly 4 million displaced people have recently returned, people face worsening water scarcity ‌and erratic ⁠rainfall, while flooding along the Euphrates River in May damaged homes and displaced thousands of people, the report said.

Across sub-Saharan Africa, one in three refugee settlements could experience at least 100 days of dangerous heat each year by 2050, threatening health and livelihoods, the report said. In some settlements in Ethiopia, including Helaweyn, dangerous heat could persist for more than 200 days a year, increasing ​the risks of heatstroke and ​premature death.

“Refugees often have limited ⁠access to cooling, water and reliable energy, making it harder to escape dangerous temperatures,” the report said.

UNHCR also warned that a forecast supersized El Niño could worsen climate-related risks in many refugee-hosting countries ​and trigger further displacement.

In East Africa, severe flooding could displace up to 3 million people ​in Somalia, Kenya, ⁠South Sudan and Uganda by the end of this year, UNHCR said. In the Sahel, drought, flooding and conflict could intensify competition over scarce resources, while parts of Asia face heightened risks of droughts, floods and cyclones.

UNHCR called on governments and climate-finance institutions meeting at ⁠COP31 to ​increase funding for climate adaptation, highlighting that only about 10% of climate finance ​reaches fragile or conflict-affected countries.

On Wednesday, a separate UN report found rich countries were falling well short of the $305 billion needed each year to help developing nations ​adapt to climate change, even as extreme weather events become more frequent and severe.

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Climate Change

IEA to attend UN climate summit for second time since returning to power

The IEA previously attended COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, in 2024. Observer status allows delegates to participate in discussions but does not grant them formal negotiating or decision-making powers.

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Afghanistan’s Islamic Emirate (IEA) is expected to send representatives to the COP31 United Nations climate summit in Antalya, Turkey, marking its second participation in the global climate conference process since returning to power in 2021.

According to the Associated Press, Rohullah Amin, head of climate change at the National Environmental Protection Agency, confirmed that Kabul plans to send a delegation. A Turkish official also confirmed that IEA representatives had been invited as observers.

The IEA previously attended COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan, in 2024. Observer status allows delegates to participate in discussions but does not grant them formal negotiating or decision-making powers.

Afghanistan remains among the countries most vulnerable to climate change, facing recurring droughts, water shortages, extreme temperatures and devastating floods. These challenges threaten agricultural production, livelihoods and food security, while contributing to internal displacement.

The planned participation comes amid continuing disagreements over Afghanistan’s international representation and access to climate financing, with the United Nations yet to recognize the IEA administration as the country’s official government.

COP31 is expected to provide another opportunity to highlight Afghanistan’s growing environmental challenges and its need for international climate support.

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