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Saudi Arabia may raise Nov official crude prices for Asia

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Top oil exporter Saudi Arabia may raise prices for most crude grades it sells to Asia in November on expectations for demand recovery and Chinese refineries to increase output following the issuance of new product export quotas.

The November official selling prices (OSP) for flagship Arab Light crude may rise by 25 cents a barrel, according to the median of the responses of five refining sources surveyed by Reuters on Sept. 29-30.

“Oil demand is expected to improve, which we can see from current market structure,” said one respondent.

The backwardation in the Dubai market structure widened during trading last month, implying that demand for crude in the near-term is rising. The premium for front-month Dubai over the price for the third-month averaged $5.36 a barrel in September, up from $5.07 in August.

The market also expects China, the world’s biggest crude importer, to increase purchases as Beijing has issued a fresh round of refined product export quotas, totalling 15 million tonnes. That could encourage Chinese refineries to lift their crude buying to ramp up fuel output.

Refining margins for gasoline and diesel plunged on China’s new export quotas as a flood of refined products would knock down the prices of the products.

“That’s a reason why we forecast the official prices for lighter crude grades to only see a small hike,” said another respondent.

The respondents polled by Reuters assess the price increase for Arab Medium and Arab Heavy to be larger than Arab Light, as the refining margins, also known as cracks, for fuel oil are performing better than the light- and middle-distillate products , .

China issued 1.75 million tonnes of export quotas for low-sulphur fuel oil, compared to 13.25 million tonnes for other products in the recent round.

OPEC+ will consider an oil output cut of more than a million barrels per day (bpd) during their monthly meeting this week, in what would be the biggest move yet since the COVID-19 pandemic to address oil market weakness.

Benchmark oil prices have fallen by more than 30% since March.

Saudi crude OSPs are around the fifth of each month, and set the trend for Iranian, Kuwaiti and Iraqi prices, affecting more than 9 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude bound for Asia.

Saudi Aramco sets its crude prices based on recommendations from customers and after calculating the change in the value of its oil over the past month, based on yields and product prices.

Saudi Aramco officials as a matter of policy do not comment on the kingdom’s monthly OSPs.

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Afghanistan, Iran explore expansion of trade and transit via Chabahar Port

Officials described the visit as part of ongoing efforts to strengthen regional cooperation and establish reliable, cost-effective transit corridors for Afghan exports and imports.

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The Ministry of Industry and Commerce of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan says a technical delegation has completed a visit to Iran to assess transit and trade opportunities, emphasizing the expansion of commercial activity through the strategic Chabahar Port.

Abdul Salam Javad Akhundzada, the ministry’s spokesman, told Afghan Voice Agency (AVA) that the delegation examined Iran’s major transit routes, including the ports of Chabahar and Bandar Abbas, and held meetings with Iranian officials to discuss ways to strengthen trade connectivity between the two countries.

According to Akhundzada, the Afghan team conducted a comprehensive review of port operations, transit facilities, and transportation infrastructure, with its findings shared with Industry and Commerce Minister Nooruddin Azizi.

Azizi praised the delegation’s efforts and reiterated Kabul’s commitment to improving regional trade and logistics. “We are working seriously to expand trade routes and create greater facilities for Afghan traders,” he said, noting that leveraging regional transit opportunities remains a priority for Afghanistan’s economic development.

Officials described the visit as part of ongoing efforts to strengthen regional cooperation and establish reliable, cost-effective transit corridors for Afghan exports and imports.

The renewed focus on Chabahar—seen as a vital alternative to Pakistan’s ports—comes amid the continued closure of key Afghan-Pakistani border crossings due to recent security tensions.

Khan Jan Alokozai, a board member of the Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce and Investment, told AVA that the closures have disrupted trade flows through Pakistan, particularly at Karachi port. He urged that “trade and economic issues should be kept separate from political disputes” to ensure stability in regional commerce.

However, Alokozai added that if tensions with Pakistan persist, Afghanistan will prioritize alternative routes through Iran and Central Asia, including expanding cooperation via Chabahar, which provides access to global markets through the Arabian Sea.

The Chabahar Port, developed with Indian assistance, has long been viewed as a key regional hub offering landlocked Afghanistan a direct maritime link bypassing Pakistan.

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Ariana Airlines slashes cargo fees to boost Afghanistan’s trade

Ariana Airlines has been directed to acquire a dedicated cargo aircraft as soon as possible.

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In a significant development aimed at facilitating trade, the Economic Deputy of the Office of the Prime Minister, Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, announced new measures regarding cargo transport costs using Ariana Airlines.

Under the new decision, the cost of transporting export goods via Ariana Airlines has been reduced to $1 per kilogram, while the fee for importing commercial goods has been set at $0.80 per kilogram.

The Economic Deputy has also instructed the Ministries of Finance, Transport, and Civil Aviation to provide a 90 percent discount on their service fees for Ariana Airlines, further supporting the company’s operations.

In addition, Ariana Airlines has been directed to acquire a dedicated cargo aircraft as soon as possible to increase its capacity for transporting both export and import goods, thereby streamlining trade operations across the country.

Officials say these measures are expected to have a positive impact on Afghanistan’s economy, enhancing trade efficiency, boosting exports, and improving access to imported goods.

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Another US sanctions waiver for Iran port boosts India’s Afghanistan plan

According to reliable sources, the existing waiver expired on Tuesday, but following intensive negotiations, India succeeded in obtaining an extension from Washington.

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India has secured an extension of the US sanctions waiver for Iran’s Chabahar Port until early next year — a move that strengthens New Delhi’s regional connectivity strategy by providing a crucial gateway to Afghanistan, Central Asia, and parts of Eastern Russia.

According to reliable sources, the existing waiver expired on Tuesday, but following intensive negotiations, India succeeded in obtaining an extension from Washington. Indian officials emphasized the port’s strategic importance for the effectiveness of its regional connectivity and humanitarian initiatives.

Economic Times (ET) had earlier reported that New Delhi was seeking the extension after previously receiving a waiver valid until October 28. The US had initially planned to revoke the exemption by September 29 before allowing India to continue its operations under the renewed waiver.

In May 2024, India signed a 10-year agreement to operate the Chabahar Port with Iran’s Port and Maritime Organisation through Indian Ports Global Limited. The port has been central to India’s efforts to expand economic and humanitarian cooperation with Afghanistan, including the recent delivery of ambulances gifted during the Afghan foreign minister’s visit to New Delhi earlier this month.

The Islamic Emirate has also expressed interest in effectively utilizing the port to enhance its international engagement and trade access.

There are ongoing plans to link Chabahar Port with the International North-South Transport Corridor and with Central Asian nations. Uzbekistan — the world’s second doubly landlocked country after Liechtenstein — supports the initiative as part of its multipolar connectivity vision and seeks to diversify beyond China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

Sources further indicated that Russia, too, is exploring ways to use the Chabahar Port through Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan to facilitate trade with India and other Asian markets.

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