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SIGAR issues pessimistic economic forecast for Afghanistan

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Afghanistan’s economy suffered severe contraction in 2021, with the UN Development Programme (UNDP) and IMF estimating up to a 20–30 percent drop, the US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) reported.

According to SIGAR’s latest report, annual per capita income is estimated to have fallen from $650 in 2012, to $500 in 2020, and is expected to drop to $350 by 2022.

SIGAR stated that male unemployment in Afghanistan may nearly double from 15.2 percent in 2019 to 29 percent by 2022.

“In the worst-case scenario modeled by the Asian Development Bank, unemployment could increase by more than 40 percent in the short run and household consumption could contract by 44 percent,” read the report.

The devaluation of the afghani has also impacted the Afghan economy and further diminished Afghan households’ ability to purchase food and
other necessary items, because much foreign trade was settled in US dollars.

Since August last year, the afghani has depreciated against the US dollar, from approximately 77 afghani to the dollar to around 105 as of January
2, 2022.

SIGAR also reported that adding to the pressure on the country’s limited cash reserves, Afghanistan lacks the technical capabilities to print its own currency.
According to SIGAR, the IEA has not yet secured or developed a domestic printing source for afghani banknotes.

SIGAR reported that Afghanistan’s largely cash-based economy has continued to struggle with an acute cash shortage since November, which has limited day-to-day economic activities.

“Banks are at the center of a liquidity crisis, with lost access to international financing and depositors attempting to recover their funds,” read the report.

According to a UNDP report, Afghanistan’s banking system is in “existential crisis.” Total deposits had fallen to the equivalent of $2 billion as of
September 2021 from $2.8 billion the month.

As the Afghan economy has struggled to find areas of sustainable economic growth in recent years, the country has increasingly relied on remittances from Afghans working abroad, especially in neighboring Iran.

By 2019, remittances accounted for the equivalent of 4.3 percent of Afghanistan’s annual GDP, an increase from 1.2 percent in 2014, according to World Bank data.

However, officials from the UN’s International Organization for Migration estimate this figure could have been as high as 15–20 percent, given that many remittances are sent through the informal hawala money-transfer system.

According to officials at Médecins Sans Frontières, with the absence of a functioning banking sector, many NGOs have also been forced to rely on
hawalas to pay expenses within Afghanistan.

In November 2021, the IEA announced a complete ban on the use of foreign currency in Afghanistan, interfering with remittance activities and
worsening the country’s liquidity crisis.

However, SIGAR reported that indicators suggest that the currency ban is not being actively enforced against the US dollar, which continues to be widely used in Afghan markets.

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Gold holds near record peak as trade jitters buoy safe-haven demand

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Gold prices eased on Thursday as the dollar regained some ground, although concerns over the U.S.-China trade war kept the safe-haven bullion close to a record high level hit in the previous session.

Spot gold was 0.4% lower at $2,854.39 per ounce by 0802 GMT, after hitting an all-time peak of $2,882.16 in the previous session, Reuters reported.

U.S. gold futures shed 0.6% to $2,875.

The dollar index , which measures the greenback against six major rivals, was up 0.2%.

"Investors are trying not to miss this rally as they place their position because they are happy with the returns. That's the reason why it's (gold) hitting successive highs," said Soni Kumari, a commodity strategist at ANZ.

"Bullion could hit the $3,000 level soon ... However, what could make the market consolidate will be some clarity on trade ties or easing trade tensions."

On Wednesday, China filed a World Trade Organization complaint against U.S. President Donald Trump's new 10% tariff on Chinese imports.

A trade war between the world's two largest economies could weigh on global growth and drive up inflation, benefiting the bullion further as it is considered a safe investment during economic and geopolitical turmoil.

"The gold bull market looks set to continue under Trump 2.0 with trade wars and geopolitical tensions reinforcing the reserve diversification/de-dollarization trend and supporting EM official sector gold demand," Citi said in a note.

"Global growth concerns are also set to raise ETF and over-the-counter investment demand."

U.S. Federal Reserve officials also pointed to the large policy uncertainty around tariffs and issues arising from the early days of Trump's administration as among the top challenges in figuring out where to take the monetary policy in the months ahead.

Market focus is now on U.S. weekly jobless claims data, due at 1330 GMT, and the non-farm payrolls report on Friday, which could offer insights into the economy's overall strength.

Spot silver dropped 1.3% to $31.91 per ounce, and palladium fell 0.4% to $985.48. Platinum gained 0.2% to $981.74.

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US spending of $3.71 billion has had no impact on Afghanistan’s economy: Ministry

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The Ministry of Economy in a statement on Saturday responding to a report by the Office of the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), said the $3.71 billion mentioned by the agency was allocated to international institutions, a large portion of which was used for their own expenses, and the rest designated as humanitarian aid.

SIGAR’s report stated that the US has spent $3.71 billion in Afghanistan over the past three years, but it has had little significant impact on the country’s economic situation.

According to the statement, the Ministry of Economy has urged the international community and countries to release over $9 billion of Afghanistan's foreign reserves, which have been frozen, to the Da Afghanistan Bank (DAB).

The statement stated this would allow the funds to be used for maintaining monetary stability, strengthening the financial system, facilitating trade with the world, and ensuring Afghanistan’s economic stability.

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Industry ministry to establish ‘unified union’ for pine nut sector

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The Ministry of Industry and Commerce (MoIC) said in a statement on Saturday that a unified union will be established for the pine nut sector to support its development and eliminate unhealthy competition among its members.

According to the statement, acting Minister of Industry and Commerce Nooruddin Azizi met with pine nut traders during a meeting to support and address the challenges faced by the pine nut sector.

In the meeting, discussions focused on the establishment of pine nut processing factories, export issues, supporting sector members, and creating a pine nut market within the country.

Traders also stated that currently, Afghan pine nuts are exported to China, India, and European countries.

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