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SIGAR issues pessimistic economic forecast for Afghanistan

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Afghanistan’s economy suffered severe contraction in 2021, with the UN Development Programme (UNDP) and IMF estimating up to a 20–30 percent drop, the US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) reported.

According to SIGAR’s latest report, annual per capita income is estimated to have fallen from $650 in 2012, to $500 in 2020, and is expected to drop to $350 by 2022.

SIGAR stated that male unemployment in Afghanistan may nearly double from 15.2 percent in 2019 to 29 percent by 2022.

“In the worst-case scenario modeled by the Asian Development Bank, unemployment could increase by more than 40 percent in the short run and household consumption could contract by 44 percent,” read the report.

The devaluation of the afghani has also impacted the Afghan economy and further diminished Afghan households’ ability to purchase food and
other necessary items, because much foreign trade was settled in US dollars.

Since August last year, the afghani has depreciated against the US dollar, from approximately 77 afghani to the dollar to around 105 as of January
2, 2022.

SIGAR also reported that adding to the pressure on the country’s limited cash reserves, Afghanistan lacks the technical capabilities to print its own currency.
According to SIGAR, the IEA has not yet secured or developed a domestic printing source for afghani banknotes.

SIGAR reported that Afghanistan’s largely cash-based economy has continued to struggle with an acute cash shortage since November, which has limited day-to-day economic activities.

“Banks are at the center of a liquidity crisis, with lost access to international financing and depositors attempting to recover their funds,” read the report.

According to a UNDP report, Afghanistan’s banking system is in “existential crisis.” Total deposits had fallen to the equivalent of $2 billion as of
September 2021 from $2.8 billion the month.

As the Afghan economy has struggled to find areas of sustainable economic growth in recent years, the country has increasingly relied on remittances from Afghans working abroad, especially in neighboring Iran.

By 2019, remittances accounted for the equivalent of 4.3 percent of Afghanistan’s annual GDP, an increase from 1.2 percent in 2014, according to World Bank data.

However, officials from the UN’s International Organization for Migration estimate this figure could have been as high as 15–20 percent, given that many remittances are sent through the informal hawala money-transfer system.

According to officials at Médecins Sans Frontières, with the absence of a functioning banking sector, many NGOs have also been forced to rely on
hawalas to pay expenses within Afghanistan.

In November 2021, the IEA announced a complete ban on the use of foreign currency in Afghanistan, interfering with remittance activities and
worsening the country’s liquidity crisis.

However, SIGAR reported that indicators suggest that the currency ban is not being actively enforced against the US dollar, which continues to be widely used in Afghan markets.

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Gold climbs to record high as tariff worries bolster safe-haven demand

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Gold’s record run extended to another all-time high on Tuesday, buoyed by safe-haven demand as investors brace for U.S. President Donald Trump’s planned announcement on reciprocal tariffs.

Spot gold was up 0.3% at $3,131.56 an ounce at 0914 GMT, after hitting a record high of $3,148.88 earlier, Reuters reported.

U.S. gold futures were 0.3% higher at $3,159.10.

“Trump’s tariff comments and his increasingly volatile stance on Russia’s war against Ukraine are proving the perfect chaos for new record gold prices,” surpassing even the COVID pandemic five years ago, said Adrian Ash, head of research at online marketplace BullionVault.

Trump said on Sunday his reciprocal tariffs to be announced on Wednesday would include all countries, rather than a limited number.

Goldman Sachs on Monday raised the probability of a U.S. recession to 35% from 20% and said it expected more rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, as Trump’s tariffs roil the global economy and upend financial markets.

Gold, traditionally seen as a hedge against uncertainty and inflation, has risen more than 15% this year. Non-yielding bullion also tends to do well in a low interest rate environment.

“The market is watching April 2 closely for further economic indicators that could impact Federal Reserve policy decisions. If rate cuts are confirmed, this would provide additional support for gold’s upward trajectory,” said Alexander Zumpfe, a precious metals trader at Heraeus Metals Germany.

Bullion’s rally this year has also been supported by strong demand from central banks, geopolitical instability in the Middle East and Europe, and increased flows into gold-backed exchange-traded funds.

In the last session, gold closed out its strongest quarter since 1986, and climbed over $3,100/oz, marking one of the most significant upswings in the precious metal’s history.

Investors will also monitor U.S. job openings data later on Tuesday and the U.S. non-farm payrolls report on Friday.

Silver steadied at $34.06 an ounce, platinum fell 0.4% to $988.35, and palladium gained 0.3% to $985.86.

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Efforts underway to expand Afghanistan’s trade relations with India

A number of investors also suggest that the Islamic Emirate should actively participate in regional and trade fairs to increase exports, so that Afghan products can be marketed in regional and global markets.

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The Ministry of Industry and Commerce says that efforts are underway to expand trade relations with India, the volume of which reaches $650 million annually.

Abdulsalam Jawad Akhundzada, a spokesman for the Ministry of Industry and Commerce, says that India is also interested in expanding trade relations with Afghanistan, and Kabul has also taken steps in this regard by using Chabahar Port, and talks have been held with the Indian side on visas.

The Chamber of Commerce and Investment also says that trade relations between Afghanistan and India are expanding and these relations are strengthening with each passing day. According to officials of the chamber, Afghanistan has exported goods worth $500 million to India in the past year.

A number of investors also suggest that the Islamic Emirate should actively participate in regional and trade fairs to increase exports, so that Afghan products can be marketed in regional and global markets.

According to investors, once the visa issues with India are resolved, a large portion of the country’s fresh and dried fruits will be exported to India because India is a good market for Afghan fruits in the region.

Investors want the Islamic Emirate to pave the way for increased exports to India through Chabahar Port.

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36 mining contracts inked over the past year: Mines ministry

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The Ministry of Mines and Petroleum says it has signed 36 large and small mining contracts, with a total value of $1.3 billion over the past year.

Officials from the ministry stated that these contracts include 10 large mines, 25 small mines, as well as projects related to cement, salt, marble, and a major gas extraction contract with Uzbekistan, all signed with both domestic and foreign companies.

Meanwhile, economic experts have emphasized the importance of increasing investments in the mining sector for the country’s economic growth. They have stressed that priority in mining contracts should be given to domestic companies.

“It is better to prioritize domestic investors over foreign ones,” said Kamaluddin Kakar, an economic expert.

In the meantime, members of the private sector also stated that if both foreign companies and Afghan investors can partner in the mining sector, this will not only foster investment development in the country but also bring positive changes in capacity building within the mining extraction sector.

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