Business

SIGAR issues pessimistic economic forecast for Afghanistan

Published

4 years ago

February 20, 2022

Afghanistan’s economy suffered severe contraction in 2021, with the UN Development Programme (UNDP) and IMF estimating up to a 20–30 percent drop, the US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) reported.

According to SIGAR’s latest report, annual per capita income is estimated to have fallen from $650 in 2012, to $500 in 2020, and is expected to drop to $350 by 2022.

SIGAR stated that male unemployment in Afghanistan may nearly double from 15.2 percent in 2019 to 29 percent by 2022.

“In the worst-case scenario modeled by the Asian Development Bank, unemployment could increase by more than 40 percent in the short run and household consumption could contract by 44 percent,” read the report.

The devaluation of the afghani has also impacted the Afghan economy and further diminished Afghan households’ ability to purchase food and
other necessary items, because much foreign trade was settled in US dollars.

Since August last year, the afghani has depreciated against the US dollar, from approximately 77 afghani to the dollar to around 105 as of January
2, 2022.

SIGAR also reported that adding to the pressure on the country’s limited cash reserves, Afghanistan lacks the technical capabilities to print its own currency.
According to SIGAR, the IEA has not yet secured or developed a domestic printing source for afghani banknotes.

SIGAR reported that Afghanistan’s largely cash-based economy has continued to struggle with an acute cash shortage since November, which has limited day-to-day economic activities.

“Banks are at the center of a liquidity crisis, with lost access to international financing and depositors attempting to recover their funds,” read the report.

According to a UNDP report, Afghanistan’s banking system is in “existential crisis.” Total deposits had fallen to the equivalent of $2 billion as of
September 2021 from $2.8 billion the month.

As the Afghan economy has struggled to find areas of sustainable economic growth in recent years, the country has increasingly relied on remittances from Afghans working abroad, especially in neighboring Iran.

By 2019, remittances accounted for the equivalent of 4.3 percent of Afghanistan’s annual GDP, an increase from 1.2 percent in 2014, according to World Bank data.

However, officials from the UN’s International Organization for Migration estimate this figure could have been as high as 15–20 percent, given that many remittances are sent through the informal hawala money-transfer system.

According to officials at Médecins Sans Frontières, with the absence of a functioning banking sector, many NGOs have also been forced to rely on
hawalas to pay expenses within Afghanistan.

In November 2021, the IEA announced a complete ban on the use of foreign currency in Afghanistan, interfering with remittance activities and
worsening the country’s liquidity crisis.

However, SIGAR reported that indicators suggest that the currency ban is not being actively enforced against the US dollar, which continues to be widely used in Afghan markets.

Related Topics:#Income featured peace SIGAR

Up Next

Kabul Central Silo resumes operations after 30-year hiatus

Don't Miss

Consignment of aid from India arrives in Kabul

Business

Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan target Afghanistan in push to expand regional trade

According to Uzbek media, the initiative was discussed during the Uzbek-Kazakh Business Forum in Tashkent.

Published

5 days ago

August 7, 2026

Ariana News

Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are seeking to deepen economic cooperation and jointly expand into new regional markets, including Afghanistan, as part of broader efforts to strengthen trade and investment across Central Asia and the Middle East.

According to Uzbek media, the initiative was discussed during the Uzbek-Kazakh Business Forum in Tashkent, where business leaders and trade associations from both countries explored opportunities to promote their products in third-country markets, particularly Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq.

Afghanistan featured prominently in the discussions, with participants noting that Kazakhstan’s exports to Afghanistan reached nearly $500 million during the first seven months of 2025—almost matching the country’s total exports to Afghanistan for all of 2024. Officials said the long-term goal is to increase exports to $3 billion.

The forum also highlighted growing imports of mineral raw materials from Afghanistan. Participants discussed a proposed agreement to supply Afghan zinc ore to the Almalyk Mining and Metallurgical Complex in Uzbekistan.

Beyond Afghanistan, delegates examined emerging business opportunities in Syria and Iraq, where reconstruction efforts are expected to drive demand for food products, construction materials and industrial goods.

The forum also focused on improving regional logistics. Officials discussed using available capacity on Turkish freight trucks transiting Uzbekistan, a move expected to reduce transport costs and improve access to regional markets.

At the conclusion of the forum, both sides agreed to organise joint business missions to third-country markets, including Aleppo, Syria, in late September and Erbil, Iraq, in early October, with the aim of strengthening commercial partnerships and identifying new investment opportunities.

The discussions reflect growing economic cooperation between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan as both countries seek to expand regional connectivity, diversify exports and strengthen trade links with neighbouring markets, including Afghanistan.

Business

Uzbekistan’s Fergana region strengthens economic ties with Afghanistan

The meeting followed a Fergana delegation’s visit to Afghanistan on July 26-27, during which officials and business representatives held talks in Kabul and Mazar-i-Sharif.

Published

5 days ago

August 6, 2026

Ariana News

Uzbekistan’s Fergana region is moving to deepen economic cooperation with Afghanistan after officials and business leaders agreed to fast-track joint investment projects and expand bilateral trade.

According to a statement from the Fergana Regional Administration, Governor Khayrullo Bozorov met with leading Afghan business figures, including Emerald Diamond Trading Director Abdul Hamid Anyuri, Kam Air Director Atilla Azimi, Tojmahal Petroleum Director Abdul Latif Nawruzi, and their regional partners to discuss practical measures for strengthening economic ties.

The meeting followed a Fergana delegation’s visit to Afghanistan on July 26-27, during which officials and business representatives held talks in Kabul and Mazar-i-Sharif. The delegation also inaugurated Fergana Trade Houses in both cities to promote trade and commercial cooperation.

“The parties agreed to accelerate the implementation of joint investment projects, increase bilateral trade and elevate cooperation to a new level,” the regional administration said.

Discussions focused on turning agreements reached during the Afghanistan visit into practical projects, identifying new investment opportunities, and expanding trade between the two sides. Afghan business representatives expressed interest in working with Fergana companies in key sectors including trade, agriculture, aviation, energy and logistics, while presenting several new investment initiatives.

Bozorov reaffirmed Fergana’s commitment to strengthening economic relations with Afghanistan, saying the regional administration stands ready to support joint projects and create favourable conditions for closer business cooperation.

The regional administration said the meeting reflects growing momentum in economic engagement between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan, with both sides seeking to expand cross-border trade, attract investment and develop new commercial partnerships as part of broader efforts to strengthen regional economic connectivity.

Business

Afghanistan invites Iranian investors to expand economic cooperation

Discussions focused on expanding private-sector cooperation, increasing joint investment, and boosting bilateral trade between the two countries.

Published

2 weeks ago

July 30, 2026

Ariana News

Afghanistan has invited Iranian investors to explore business opportunities and participate in joint economic projects as the country seeks to strengthen investment and trade ties with its western neighbor.

Kamaluddin Tawhidi, head of the Afghanistan-Iran Joint Chamber of Commerce, made the appeal during a visit to Iran, where he attended the “Economic Cooperation Opportunities with Afghanistan” conference in Alborz Province, according to Iran’s state broadcaster.

Speaking at the event, Tawhidi highlighted Afghanistan’s investment potential and encouraged Iranian businesses to take advantage of opportunities across a range of economic sectors.

Discussions focused on expanding private-sector cooperation, increasing joint investment, and boosting bilateral trade between the two countries.

Tawhidi said stronger economic partnerships could create new business opportunities and support broader regional economic growth.

The meeting comes as Afghanistan continues efforts to attract foreign investment and deepen economic cooperation with neighboring countries.