Business
SIGAR issues pessimistic economic forecast for Afghanistan

Afghanistan’s economy suffered severe contraction in 2021, with the UN Development Programme (UNDP) and IMF estimating up to a 20–30 percent drop, the US Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) reported.
According to SIGAR’s latest report, annual per capita income is estimated to have fallen from $650 in 2012, to $500 in 2020, and is expected to drop to $350 by 2022.
SIGAR stated that male unemployment in Afghanistan may nearly double from 15.2 percent in 2019 to 29 percent by 2022.
“In the worst-case scenario modeled by the Asian Development Bank, unemployment could increase by more than 40 percent in the short run and household consumption could contract by 44 percent,” read the report.
The devaluation of the afghani has also impacted the Afghan economy and further diminished Afghan households’ ability to purchase food and
other necessary items, because much foreign trade was settled in US dollars.
Since August last year, the afghani has depreciated against the US dollar, from approximately 77 afghani to the dollar to around 105 as of January
2, 2022.
SIGAR also reported that adding to the pressure on the country’s limited cash reserves, Afghanistan lacks the technical capabilities to print its own currency.
According to SIGAR, the IEA has not yet secured or developed a domestic printing source for afghani banknotes.
SIGAR reported that Afghanistan’s largely cash-based economy has continued to struggle with an acute cash shortage since November, which has limited day-to-day economic activities.
“Banks are at the center of a liquidity crisis, with lost access to international financing and depositors attempting to recover their funds,” read the report.
According to a UNDP report, Afghanistan’s banking system is in “existential crisis.” Total deposits had fallen to the equivalent of $2 billion as of
September 2021 from $2.8 billion the month.
As the Afghan economy has struggled to find areas of sustainable economic growth in recent years, the country has increasingly relied on remittances from Afghans working abroad, especially in neighboring Iran.
By 2019, remittances accounted for the equivalent of 4.3 percent of Afghanistan’s annual GDP, an increase from 1.2 percent in 2014, according to World Bank data.
However, officials from the UN’s International Organization for Migration estimate this figure could have been as high as 15–20 percent, given that many remittances are sent through the informal hawala money-transfer system.
According to officials at Médecins Sans Frontières, with the absence of a functioning banking sector, many NGOs have also been forced to rely on
hawalas to pay expenses within Afghanistan.
In November 2021, the IEA announced a complete ban on the use of foreign currency in Afghanistan, interfering with remittance activities and
worsening the country’s liquidity crisis.
However, SIGAR reported that indicators suggest that the currency ban is not being actively enforced against the US dollar, which continues to be widely used in Afghan markets.
Business
India allows entry of 160 Afghan trucks via Pakistan border

A day after a rare phone call between Acting Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi and his Indian counterpart Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, India has allowed 160 trucks carrying Afghan goods to enter through the Wagah border with Pakistan.
The trucks had been held up due to heightened military tensions between India and Pakistan following a deadly attack in Indian-administered Kashmir.
The conversation between Muttaqi and Jaishankar marks the highest-level political contact between New Delhi and the Islamic Emirate since its return to power in Kabul in 2021.
Although India has yet to formally recognize the Islamic Emirate as the official government of Afghanistan, it is reportedly exploring options to resume stalled development projects in Afghanistan and deepen cooperation in specific sectors.
According to The Times of India, Indian officials are also considering the possibility of extending humanitarian assistance to Afghan refugees recently deported from Pakistan.
Business
Kabul and Moscow ink five MoUs on trade, transit and energy

The Economic Deputy Office of the Prime Minister said on Friday that Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar and Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexei Overchuk signed five memoranda of understanding in various sectors on the sidelines of the 16th Kazan International Economic Forum.
According to a statement from the PM’s office, these agreements were signed on Friday after the Afghanistan–Russia Business Forum held in Kazan, Republic of Tatarstan.
“The agreements cover cooperation between Afghanistan’s Ministry of Transport and Aviation and the Ministry of Transport of the Russian Federation in the areas of transport and transit; expansion of trade relations between the chambers of commerce of both countries; cooperation between several major private companies of the two countries in the exploration, extraction, and refining of oil and gas in Afghanistan; and the development of regional trade and the establishment of an industrial-logistical complex,” the statement read.
Business
US and China reach deal to temporarily slash tariffs, easing slump fears

The United States and China have agreed to temporarily slash reciprocal tariffs in a deal that surpassed expectations as the world’s two biggest economies seek to end a damaging trade war that has stoked fears of recession and roiled financial markets.
The U.S. will cut extra tariffs it imposed on Chinese imports in April this year to 30% from 145% and Chinese duties on U.S. imports will fall to 10% from 125%, the two sides said on Monday. The new measures are effective for 90 days, Reuters reported.
The dollar rose and stock markets lifted following the news, which helped allay concerns about a downturn triggered last month by U.S. President Donald Trump’s escalation of tariff measures aimed at narrowing the U.S. trade deficit.
“Both countries represented their national interest very well,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said after talks with Chinese officials in Geneva. “We both have an interest in balanced trade, the U.S. will continue moving towards that.”
Striking a conciliatory tone towards China, Bessent was speaking alongside U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer after the weekend talks in Switzerland in which both sides hailed progress on narrowing differences.
“The consensus from both delegations this weekend is neither side wants a decoupling,” Bessent said. “And what had occurred with these very high tariffs … was the equivalent of an embargo, and neither side wants that. We do want trade.”
The tariff dispute had brought nearly $600 billion in two-way trade to a standstill, disrupting supply chains, sparking fears of stagflation and triggering some layoffs.
The Geneva meetings were the first face-to-face interactions between senior U.S. and Chinese economic officials since Trump returned to power and launched a global tariff blitz, imposing particularly hefty duties on China.
Bessent said the deal did not include sector-specific tariffs and that the U.S. would continue strategic rebalancing in areas including medicines, semiconductors and steel where it had identified supply chain vulnerabilities.
The accord went further than many analysts had expected following weeks of confrontational rhetoric on trade.
“This is better than I expected. I thought tariffs would be cut to somewhere around 50%,” said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management in Hong Kong.
“Obviously, this is very positive news for economies in both countries and for the global economy, and makes investors much less concerned about the damage to global supply chains in the short term,” Zhang added.
REPRIEVE
Since taking office in January, Trump had hiked the tariffs paid by U.S. importers for goods from China to 145%, in addition to those he imposed on many Chinese goods during his first term and the duties levied by the Biden administration.
China hit back by putting export curbs on some rare earth elements, vital for U.S. manufacturers of weapons and electronic consumer goods, and raising tariffs on U.S. goods to 125%.
Shares in European firms hit by the trade war rallied after the deal. Shipping company Maersk was the biggest gainer in Europe, up more than 12%. It warned last week that container volumes between the U.S. and China had plunged due to the dispute.
Meanwhile, shares in luxury firms LVMH and Gucci-owner Kering were up 7.4% and 6.7% respectively.
U.S. planemaker Boeing did not respond to requests for comment on how the deal would affect deliveries of aircraft to Chinese customers. In April, it said it was looking to resell potentially dozens of planes locked out of China by tariffs.
Wall Street stock futures climbed as the talks boosted hopes a global recession might be averted.
Trump gave a positive reading of the talks before they had concluded, saying the two sides had negotiated “a total reset… in a friendly, but constructive, manner.”
The president levied the tariffs in part after declaring a national emergency over fentanyl entering the United States, and Greer said conversations over curbing the deadly opioid were “very constructive” though on a separate track.
U.S. and Chinese officials met over two days at the Swiss U.N. ambassador’s gated villa overlooking Lake Geneva. Greer said many of the most challenging issues were settled outside, sitting on patio furniture beneath the shade of a tall tree.
“Having this setting, as opposed to … a sterile hotel conference situation or conference rooms, I think, let us develop personal relationships with our counterparts and lead to the successful conclusion,” he said.
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