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Turkey faces election runoff, Erdogan seen with momentum

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President Tayyip Erdogan led comfortably on Monday after the first round of Turkey's presidential election, with his rival facing an uphill struggle to prevent the president extending his rule into a third decade in a runoff vote on May 28, Reuters reported.

Turkish assets weakened on the news, which showed Erdogan only just below the 50% threshold needed to avoid sending the NATO-member country to a second round of a presidential election viewed as passing judgment on his autocratic rule.

Erdogan's People's Alliance, comprising his Islamist-rooted AK Party and its nationalist partners, also appeared set to win a majority in Turkey's new parliament with 321 of the 600 seats, further boosting his chances in the presidential runoff.

"The winner has undoubtedly been our country," Erdogan said in a speech to cheering supporters at the AKP headquarters in the capital Ankara overnight.

With most votes counted in the presidential contest, Erdogan had 49.51% and his main opposition rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu 44.88%, High Election Board chairman Ahmet Yener told reporters. Turnout was a very high 88.8%, read the report.

Further boosting Erdogan's prospects, nationalist candidate Sinan Ogan, who placed third in Sunday's election, told Reuters in an interview he would only endorse Kilicdaroglu in the runoff if the latter ruled out any concessions to a pro-Kurdish party, parliament's third largest.

That party, the HDP, backs Kilicdaroglu but is accused of ties to Kurdish militants, which it denies.

The 2.8 million voters who backed Ogan in the first round could prove crucial for Kilicdaroglu if he is to defeat Erdogan.

Opinion polls had shown Erdogan, 69, trailing Kilicdaroglu, but the outcome suggested that the president and his AK Party were able to rally conservative voters despite a cost-of-living crisis and soaring inflation, Reuters reported.

Kilicdaroglu, head of a six-party alliance, vowed to prevail in the runoff and accused Erdogan's party of interfering with the counting and reporting of results. He called on his supporters to be patient, but they were downcast on Monday.

"We are sad, we are depressed about the whole situation. We expected different results," said commuter Volkan Atilgan as he sat near a ferry station in Istanbul. "God willing, we will win this victory in the second round."

By contrast, Erdogan supporters were jubilant as the results filtered out, with cyber security engineer Feyyaz Balcu, 23, confident that Erdogan could fix Turkey's economic woes.

"It is very important for all Turkish people that Erdogan wins the elections. He is a world leader and all the Turks and Muslims want Erdogan as president," he said.

The prospect of five more years of Erdogan's rule will upset civil rights activists campaigning for reforms to undo the damage they say he has done to Turkey's democracy. He says he respects democracy.

Thousands of political prisoners and activists could be released if the opposition prevails, Reuters reported.

Stocks fell, the lira was near a two-month low, sovereign dollar bonds fell and the cost of insuring exposure to Turkey's debt spiked. Analysts voiced concern about the uncertainty and diminishing prospects of a return to economic policy orthodoxy.

"Erdogan has now a clear psychological lead against the opposition," said Teneo co-president Wolfango Piccoli. "Erdogan will likely double down on his national security focused narratives over the next two weeks."

The election has been closely watched in Europe, Washington, Moscow, and across the region, where Erdogan has asserted Turkish power while strengthening ties to Russia and putting strain on Ankara's traditional alliance with the United States, Reuters reported.

Erdogan has cordial relations with President Vladimir Putin and his strong showing is likely to encourage the Kremlin but unnerve the Biden administration, as well as many European and leaders who had troubled ties with Erdogan.

White House spokesperson John Kirby said President Joe Biden was looking forward to working with whoever won the vote. The Kremlin said it expected Russia's cooperation with Turkey to continue and deepen whoever wins.

Analysts saw Middle Eastern governments preferring continuity over change after Erdogan's showing, regarding him as part of an acceptable status quo in a tumultuous region.

The opposition had expected to benefit from voter anger at economic woes after an unorthodox policy of low interest rates triggered a lira crisis and soaring inflation. A slow government response to earthquakes that killed 50,000 people in February had also been expected to influence voters.

Kilicdaroglu, 74, has pledged to revive democracy after years of state repression, return to orthodox economic policies, empower institutions that lost autonomy under Erdogan and rebuild frail ties with the West, read the report.

The political uncertainty is expected to weigh on financial markets over the next two weeks. The lira stood at 19.67 to the dollar at 1348 GMT, after reaching 19.70 in earlier trading, its weakest since a record low of 19.80 hit in March.

The cost of insuring against Turkey defaulting on its sovereign debts surged to a six-month high, jumping 105 basis points (bps) from Friday's levels to 597 bps, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, Reuters reported.

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Ukraine’s Zelenskiy says ‘victory plan’ is ready

Zelenskiy has rejected any notion of negotiations while Russian troops occupy nearly 20% of the country’s territory.

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President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Wednesday that his "Victory Plan", intended to bring peace to Ukraine while keeping the country strong and avoiding all "frozen conflicts", was now complete after much consultation, Reuters reported.

Zelenskiy pledged last month to present his plan to U.S. President Joe Biden, presumably next week when he attends sessions of the U.N. Security Council and General Assembly.

While providing daily updates on the plan's preparation, Zelenskiy has given few clues of the contents, indicating only that it aims to create terms acceptable to Ukraine, now locked in conflict with Russia for more than 2-1/2 years.

"Today, it can be said that our victory plan is fully prepared. All the points, all key focus areas and all necessary detailed additions of the plan have been defined," Zelenskiy said in his nightly video address.

"The most important thing is the determination to implement it.

There was, Zelenskiy said, no alternative to peace, "no freezing of the war or any other manipulations that would simply postpone Russian aggression to another stage".

On Tuesday, the president said a meeting with top commanders had produced "good and strong content" in military terms, "precisely the kind that can significantly strengthen Ukraine".

Zelenskiy has used as the basis for negotiations a peace plan he presented in late 2022 calling for a withdrawal of all Russian troops, the restoration of Ukraine's post-Soviet borders and a means to bring Russia to account for its invasion, read the report.

The plan was the focal point of a "peace summit" hosted by Switzerland in June with participants pledging to convene a second summit later this year. Russia was not invited to the June summit and branded it as meaningless, though Ukraine and its allies say Moscow could attend the next gathering.

Zelenskiy has rejected any notion of negotiations while Russian troops occupy nearly 20% of the country's territory.

Russia has repeatedly said it is willing to negotiate, but rules out discussions while Ukrainian forces remain in its Kursk region after it launched an incursion into the area last month.

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North Korea tests new ballistic missiles with super-large warhead, KCNA says

South Korea’s military said on Thursday two ballistic missiles landed in a mountainous area in the North’s northeast.

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North Korea tested new tactical ballistic missiles using super-large warheads and modified cruise missiles on Wednesday as leader Kim Jong Un called for stronger conventional weapons and nuclear capabilities, state news agency KCNA reported.

The tests to improve weapons capabilities are required because of the grave threat posed by outside forces to the security of the country, Kim, who led the tests, was quoted as saying.

The account followed the firing of multiple short-range ballistic missiles on Wednesday reported by the South Korean military, which was the second time the North test-launched missiles in a week.

Last week, North Korea also unveiled a uranium enrichment facility, in its first such public report, Reuters reported.

Kim stressed "the need to continue to bolster up the nuclear force and have the strongest military technical capability and overwhelming offensive capability in the field of conventional weapons too," KCNA said.

Wednesday's tests involved the new tactical ballistic Hwasongpho-11-Da-4.5 missiles, KCNA said, indicating it was part of a series of short-range ballistic missiles it had been developing.

The missile was mounted with a 4.5-ton super-large conventional warhead, KCNA said.

North Korea's state media reported the tests of missiles with the same name in July, which was considered a partial success. On Thursday, state media released photographs of a projectile striking a target in a hilly area, read the report.

South Korea's military said on Thursday two ballistic missiles landed in a mountainous area in the North's northeast.

Such a missile launch test with an intention to hit an inland target is likely unprecedented, said Shin Seung-ki who is the head of research on North Korea's military at the state-run Korea Institute for Defense Analyses in Seoul.

North Korea routinely test-launches missiles to drop in the sea or on an uninhabited island.

The particular missile with the Hwasongpho-11-Da-4.5 designation is still under development but Russia may want it soon if its performance and reliability can be guaranteed through further testing, Shin said.

"North Korea will want to shorten that time as much as possible," he said.

Kyiv officials and independent experts have said there were signs some of the missiles used by Russia in the war against Ukraine were North Korean-made, including some that were produced this year. Moscow and Pyongyang both deny any illicit arms trade or shipments.

The North's military also tested a strategic cruise missile that has been upgraded for combat use, KCNA said.

North Korea has criticized military drills by the South Korean and U.S. militaries, including a large-scale exercise conducted this summer, as preparations for war on the Korean peninsula.

The allies say the drills are defensive in nature and aimed at maintaining readiness against any North Korean aggression.

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Sweden to pay migrants over $34,000 to return home

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Sweden, which has been known for years for its welcoming policy toward migrants, plans to increase its cash offer of $978 to about $34,000 to those who voluntarily return home.

Last week, the Swedish government said it would raise the 10,000 krona ($978) per adult to 350,000 krona ($34,000) and simplify the process involved in applying for the grant.

The government said this is in a bid to create incentive for migrants to return home.

This increase is expected to come into effect in 2026.

Sweden is one of a number of European countries taking a harder stance on immigration.

Sweden, with a population of 10.6 million people, had more than 250,000 refugees in mid-2023.

One politician, Ludvig Aspling, said in an interview recently that only 70 people applied for the grant last year, and only one got it.

However, 16,000 migrants from Central Asia, Africa, and the Middle East left Sweden voluntarily last year without the grant.

Addressing a press conference last week, Sweden’s migration Minister Johan Forssell described the new policy as a “paradigm shift” in the Nordic country which in 2015 opened its borders to 162,877 asylum seekers, mostly of Syrian, Afghan, and Iraqi descent as a “humanitarian superpower”.

According to AFP news agency a number of other European countries already have schemes that pay migrants to return to their home countries, with offers of around $2,000 in Germany, $2,800 in France, $1,400 in Norway and more than $15,000 in Denmark.

The move however by Sweden has sparked widespread condemnation in the country from Swedes who took to social media to voice their objections.

One social media user, named only user-cb3l said: “They (migrants) will take the money but never leave. It's too late for band aid solutions.”

Somali78 was quite upfront about what he would do and said:
“I will take it and I will never leave.”

Susann Leinonen said: “Now more people come to my country for the money and I have to work for more years.”

Featherface01 meanwhile said on social media that “they'll take that 34k, leave Sweden and show up in Britain a week later.”

Tehmudjinkhan2207 queried whether this was a good idea. He said: “I’m Swedish, I don’t understand why we need to throw money at every single person in the world. When you hand out free money, every single scammer in the world will come here to take advantage. Criminal gangs will find ways to abuse this easily.”

But Johnmash327 warned: “I'm in Africa, once our brothers hear this, you'll regret this bad idea i'm telling you.”

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