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Turkey faces election runoff, Erdogan seen with momentum

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President Tayyip Erdogan led comfortably on Monday after the first round of Turkey’s presidential election, with his rival facing an uphill struggle to prevent the president extending his rule into a third decade in a runoff vote on May 28, Reuters reported.

Turkish assets weakened on the news, which showed Erdogan only just below the 50% threshold needed to avoid sending the NATO-member country to a second round of a presidential election viewed as passing judgment on his autocratic rule.

Erdogan’s People’s Alliance, comprising his Islamist-rooted AK Party and its nationalist partners, also appeared set to win a majority in Turkey’s new parliament with 321 of the 600 seats, further boosting his chances in the presidential runoff.

“The winner has undoubtedly been our country,” Erdogan said in a speech to cheering supporters at the AKP headquarters in the capital Ankara overnight.

With most votes counted in the presidential contest, Erdogan had 49.51% and his main opposition rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu 44.88%, High Election Board chairman Ahmet Yener told reporters. Turnout was a very high 88.8%, read the report.

Further boosting Erdogan’s prospects, nationalist candidate Sinan Ogan, who placed third in Sunday’s election, told Reuters in an interview he would only endorse Kilicdaroglu in the runoff if the latter ruled out any concessions to a pro-Kurdish party, parliament’s third largest.

That party, the HDP, backs Kilicdaroglu but is accused of ties to Kurdish militants, which it denies.

The 2.8 million voters who backed Ogan in the first round could prove crucial for Kilicdaroglu if he is to defeat Erdogan.

Opinion polls had shown Erdogan, 69, trailing Kilicdaroglu, but the outcome suggested that the president and his AK Party were able to rally conservative voters despite a cost-of-living crisis and soaring inflation, Reuters reported.

Kilicdaroglu, head of a six-party alliance, vowed to prevail in the runoff and accused Erdogan’s party of interfering with the counting and reporting of results. He called on his supporters to be patient, but they were downcast on Monday.

“We are sad, we are depressed about the whole situation. We expected different results,” said commuter Volkan Atilgan as he sat near a ferry station in Istanbul. “God willing, we will win this victory in the second round.”

By contrast, Erdogan supporters were jubilant as the results filtered out, with cyber security engineer Feyyaz Balcu, 23, confident that Erdogan could fix Turkey’s economic woes.

“It is very important for all Turkish people that Erdogan wins the elections. He is a world leader and all the Turks and Muslims want Erdogan as president,” he said.

The prospect of five more years of Erdogan’s rule will upset civil rights activists campaigning for reforms to undo the damage they say he has done to Turkey’s democracy. He says he respects democracy.

Thousands of political prisoners and activists could be released if the opposition prevails, Reuters reported.

Stocks fell, the lira was near a two-month low, sovereign dollar bonds fell and the cost of insuring exposure to Turkey’s debt spiked. Analysts voiced concern about the uncertainty and diminishing prospects of a return to economic policy orthodoxy.

“Erdogan has now a clear psychological lead against the opposition,” said Teneo co-president Wolfango Piccoli. “Erdogan will likely double down on his national security focused narratives over the next two weeks.”

The election has been closely watched in Europe, Washington, Moscow, and across the region, where Erdogan has asserted Turkish power while strengthening ties to Russia and putting strain on Ankara’s traditional alliance with the United States, Reuters reported.

Erdogan has cordial relations with President Vladimir Putin and his strong showing is likely to encourage the Kremlin but unnerve the Biden administration, as well as many European and leaders who had troubled ties with Erdogan.

White House spokesperson John Kirby said President Joe Biden was looking forward to working with whoever won the vote. The Kremlin said it expected Russia’s cooperation with Turkey to continue and deepen whoever wins.

Analysts saw Middle Eastern governments preferring continuity over change after Erdogan’s showing, regarding him as part of an acceptable status quo in a tumultuous region.

The opposition had expected to benefit from voter anger at economic woes after an unorthodox policy of low interest rates triggered a lira crisis and soaring inflation. A slow government response to earthquakes that killed 50,000 people in February had also been expected to influence voters.

Kilicdaroglu, 74, has pledged to revive democracy after years of state repression, return to orthodox economic policies, empower institutions that lost autonomy under Erdogan and rebuild frail ties with the West, read the report.

The political uncertainty is expected to weigh on financial markets over the next two weeks. The lira stood at 19.67 to the dollar at 1348 GMT, after reaching 19.70 in earlier trading, its weakest since a record low of 19.80 hit in March.

The cost of insuring against Turkey defaulting on its sovereign debts surged to a six-month high, jumping 105 basis points (bps) from Friday’s levels to 597 bps, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, Reuters reported.

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Trump says further US attacks on Iran ‘highly unlikely’ as peace talks gain momentum

Although Trump played down the prospect of renewed attacks, he warned that US forces remained prepared to respond if circumstances changed.

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US President Donald Trump has said further American military strikes against Iran are “highly unlikely”, signalling a possible shift towards de-escalation as diplomatic efforts to end the conflict gather momentum.

Speaking to reporters at the White House on Monday, Trump said Iran was effectively defeated militarily and suggested Washington was prepared to maintain the current situation while negotiations continued.

“Iran militarily is effectively over,” Trump said, adding that there was “positive momentum” behind efforts to reach an agreement.

“We’re just keeping it the status quo,” he said, explaining that the decision was largely being taken at the request of neighbouring countries.

Although Trump played down the prospect of renewed attacks, he warned that US forces remained prepared to respond if circumstances changed.

“We’re locked and loaded,” he said, while describing further strikes as “highly unlikely”.

The comments come amid growing pressure on the Trump administration to bring the conflict to an end, following bruising midterm election results for Republicans last week. 

Several senior party figures, including Vice-President JD Vance, have pointed to the war as a factor behind the party’s poor performance.

Trump had previously indicated that US forces carried out what he described as limited strikes on an Iranian island near the strategically important Strait of Hormuz. 

However, in a television interview broadcast on Sunday, he said he currently saw no reason to escalate the military campaign.

He also stopped short of formally declaring the war over, arguing that Washington still had to protect its Gulf allies from possible Iranian attacks.

The US naval blockade of Iranian ports, he suggested, was helping maintain security across the region.

Global oil prices fell further following Trump’s latest remarks, with Brent crude dropping more than 1% to around $91.50 a barrel, while US crude also declined.

Gulf diplomacy intensifies

Trump’s comments followed a meeting with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman Al Thani at the White House on Monday.

The US president described their discussions as excellent, while the Qatari leader said he had held positive talks with Trump and Vance on reaching an agreement and restoring regional peace.

Diplomatic efforts to end the conflict have largely been conducted through intermediaries since the war erupted following joint US-Israeli strikes against Iran in February.

Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are among Washington’s Gulf partners that have been targeted by Iranian attacks during the conflict, while security concerns have also caused significant disruption to regional air travel.

Political pressure mounts in Washington

Meanwhile, the war is generating further political tensions in Washington.

Republican Congressman Thomas Massie on Monday announced plans to force a House of Representatives vote this week on impeaching Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth over his handling of the conflict.

Hegseth, who has received Trump’s backing, dismissed the threat, describing Massie’s effort as a “sham”.

The impeachment initiative is unlikely to succeed while Republicans retain control of Congress. However, Democrats have indicated they could pursue the matter when the new congressional session begins in January.

For Trump, the challenge is increasingly twofold: finding a diplomatic exit from the conflict while managing mounting political pressure at home and reassuring US allies across the Gulf.

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First Muslim US senator-elect El-Sayed calls for review of aid to Pakistan

He also called for restrictions on US arms sales to Israel, alleging that some American-supplied weapons were being used in actions involving what he described as genocide and apartheid.

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Abdul El-Sayed, the first Muslim elected to the US Senate, has called on Washington to reconsider its financial and military assistance to Pakistan and several other countries, arguing that American taxpayer money should not be used to support violations of international law.

El-Sayed, a Democrat who recently defeated Republican candidate Mike Rogers in Michigan, said the United States must ensure that its foreign assistance policies are consistent with international law.

In an interview with ABC, he stressed that the issue should not be limited to Israel, but should also include Pakistan, Egypt and Jordan.

“When we are giving money to a country that is using our money to violate international law, that seems to me a good place to start,” El-Sayed said.

His remarks come after US President Donald Trump announced plans to end approximately $4 billion in annual military assistance to Israel by the end of the year.

El-Sayed welcomed Trump’s proposal to reduce military aid to Israel, saying he agreed with the president’s approach.

He also called for restrictions on US arms sales to Israel, alleging that some American-supplied weapons were being used in actions involving what he described as genocide and apartheid.

The United States currently provides Israel with $3.8 billion in annual military assistance under an agreement that remains in effect until 2028.

However, El-Sayed’s criticism extends beyond Israel. He has also questioned US military assistance to Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Pakistan, arguing that American taxpayer money should instead be directed towards domestic priorities.

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Houthi-run health ministry says airstrikes kill 33 near Yemen capital

The ministry said the strikes ​hit homes in the town of Bani Hushaysh, a Houthi stronghold ​east of Sanaa, and that most of those killed were women and children.

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At least 33 people were killed and 39 wounded in what the Houthi-run Saba news agency said ​were Saudi airstrikes on a village near Yemen’s capital Sanaa ‌on Saturday, in one of the deadliest reported attacks since fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-aligned group resumed in July.

Reuters could not independently verify the account. ​Saudi Arabia’s Center for International Communication said it was investigating the report.

The ​renewed fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis has shattered ⁠a 2022 UN-brokered truce that largely halted attacks between the Saudi-led ​coalition and the group, which controls Sanaa. The Houthis have since launched ​missile and drone attacks on Saudi airports and oil facilities, while Riyadh has carried out airstrikes in Yemen in support of its Yemeni allies.

The ministry said the strikes ​hit homes in the town of Bani Hushaysh, a Houthi stronghold ​east of Sanaa, and that most of those killed were women and children.

Abdul-Aziz al-Dailami, ‌director ⁠of Sehatuna Hospital in Sanaa, said many victims remained trapped under the rubble, including first responders.

“The strikes keep coming. Just as rescuers arrive, another strike hits. We have even lost some of our own medical responders, ​who have been martyred,” ​he told Reuters.

“We ⁠received a number of wounded individuals in very critical condition, with injuries to the head, chest and legs, ​as well as fractures,” al-Dailami added.

The fighting, a spillover ​from the ⁠wider US-Iran conflict, has revived a complex 12-year war in Yemen that has caused one of the worst humanitarian crises globally and fragmented the Arab world’s most ⁠impoverished ​country.

The number of people displaced since the ​latest round of fighting began has climbed to more than 200,000, the International Organization for Migration said ​in October.

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