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World Bank warns global economy could tip into recession in 2023

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The World Bank slashed its 2023 growth forecasts on Tuesday to levels teetering on the brink of recession for many countries as the impact of central bank rate hikes intensifies, Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, and the world’s major economic engines sputter.

The development lender said it expected global GDP growth of 1.7% in 2023, the slowest pace outside the 2009 and 2020 recessions since 1993. In its previous Global Economic Prospects report in June 2022, the bank had forecast 2023 global growth at 3.0%, Reuters reported.

It forecast global growth in 2024 to pick up to 2.7% — below the 2.9% estimate for 2022 — and said average growth for the 2020-2024 period would be under 2% — the slowest five-year pace since 1960.

The bank said major slowdowns in advanced economies, including sharp cuts to its forecast to 0.5% for both the United States and the euro zone, could foreshadow a new global recession less than three years after the last one.

“Given fragile economic conditions, any new adverse development — such as higher-than-expected inflation, abrupt rises in interest rates to contain it, a resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic or escalating geopolitical tensions — could push the global economy into recession,” the bank said in a statement accompanying the report.

The bleak outlook will be especially hard on emerging market and developing economies, the World Bank said, as they struggle with heavy debt burdens, weak currencies and income growth, and slowing business investment that is now forecast at a 3.5% annual growth rate over the next two years — less than half the pace of the past two decades.

“Weakness in growth and business investment will compound the already devastating reversals in education, health, poverty and infrastructure and the increasing demands from climate change,” World Bank President David Malpass said in a statement.

China’s growth in 2022 slumped to 2.7%, its second slowest pace since the mid-1970s after 2020, as zero-COVID restrictions, property market turmoil and drought hit consumption, production and investment, the World Bank report said. It predicted a rebound to 4.3% for 2023, but that is 0.9 percentage-point below the June forecast due to the severity of COVID disruptions and weakening external demand.

The World Bank noted that some inflationary pressures started to abate as 2022 drew to a close, with lower energy and commodity prices, but warned that risks of new supply disruptions were high, and elevated core inflation may persist. This could cause central banks to respond by raising policy rates by more than currently expected, worsening the global slowdown, it added.

The bank called for increased support from the international community to help low-income countries deal with food and energy shocks, people displaced by conflicts, and a growing risk of debt crises. It said new concessional financing and grants are needed along with the leveraging of private capital and domestic resources to help boost investment in climate adaptation, human capital and health, the report said.

The report comes as the World Bank’s board this week is expected to consider a new “evolution road map” for the institution to vastly expand its lending capacity to address climate change and other global crises. The plan will guide negotiations with shareholders, led by the United States, for the biggest revamp in the bank’s business model since its creation at the end of World War Two.

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Afghanistan eyes direct Basmati rice imports from India amid tensions with Pakistan

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Afghanistan is exploring direct imports of Basmati rice from India as it seeks to diversify its supply sources amid ongoing tensions with Pakistan, according to a report by The Hindu.

The report said Indian exporters and Afghan importers are expected to meet next month to discuss expanding direct trade in Basmati rice, following preliminary talks between officials from both countries held last week with the facilitation of the PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

Afghanistan consumes nearly 500,000 tonnes of Basmati rice annually and has traditionally relied on imports from neighboring Pakistan. However, industry sources told The Hindu that recent strains in Afghanistan-Pakistan relations have encouraged Kabul to seek alternative suppliers, including India.

Representatives of Afghanistan’s diplomatic mission in New Delhi reportedly took part in the discussions and expressed interest in increasing purchases of Indian Basmati rice. At present, some Indian rice reaches Afghanistan indirectly through traders in Iran and Dubai, a route that adds to transportation and transaction costs.

One proposal under consideration is to transport rice through Iran’s Bandar Abbas Port, subject to agreements between the two governments. The discussions are also expected to cover logistics, payment mechanisms, and the possibility of barter trade, with Afghanistan’s dried fruit exports to India seen as a potential component of future trade arrangements.

According to The Hindu, a direct trade arrangement could help India expand its share of Afghanistan’s Basmati market, which has historically been dominated by Pakistani suppliers.

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Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan establish trade council to boost economic cooperation

The two sides signed a memorandum of understanding to establish the Afghanistan-Kyrgyzstan Trade Council.

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The Embassy of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan in Kyrgyzstan says the Afghanistan-Kyrgyzstan Business Forum has been held with the participation of officials from both countries.

According to a statement issued by the embassy, Acting Ambassador Abdul Shakoor Haqqani said Afghanistan supports strengthening bilateral trade relations and promoting joint economic initiatives between the two countries.

The statement added that the two sides signed a memorandum of understanding to establish the Afghanistan-Kyrgyzstan Trade Council. The council aims to strengthen ties between business communities, coordinate joint initiatives, and expand and support economic projects.

Meanwhile, Sayed Karim Hashemi, Chairman of the Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce and Investment, arrived in Kyrgyzstan on Saturday at the head of a trade delegation to participate in the forum.

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Afghanistan invites Turkish investors to expand joint investments

Participants stressed the importance of increasing private sector cooperation and creating new opportunities to boost trade and investment between Afghanistan and Türkiye.

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A high-level Afghan business delegation, led by the Chairman of the Balkh Chamber of Commerce and Investment, Mohammad Ibrahim Ghazanfar, participated in the Afghanistan–Türkiye Joint Business Council meeting in Istanbul, calling for expanded joint investment and stronger economic cooperation between the two countries.

According to a statement from the Balkh Chamber of Commerce and Investment, Ghazanfar invited Turkish investors and industrialists to explore investment opportunities across various sectors in Afghanistan, emphasizing the country’s potential for mutually beneficial partnerships.

The meeting brought together business leaders, investors, and private sector representatives from both Afghanistan and Türkiye to discuss ways to strengthen bilateral trade and economic ties.

During the event, several cooperation agreements were signed between Afghan and Turkish economic institutions. The agreements are aimed at expanding commercial relations, promoting joint investment projects, and enhancing economic cooperation between the two countries.

The meeting was chaired by Süleyman Güllü, Chairman of the Türkiye–Afghanistan Joint Business Council, and was attended by Mohammad Akbar Azimi, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’s Consul General in Istanbul, along with a number of businessmen and investors from both countries.

Participants stressed the importance of increasing private sector cooperation and creating new opportunities to boost trade and investment between Afghanistan and Türkiye.

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