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World Bank warns global economy could tip into recession in 2023

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(Last Updated On: January 11, 2023)

The World Bank slashed its 2023 growth forecasts on Tuesday to levels teetering on the brink of recession for many countries as the impact of central bank rate hikes intensifies, Russia’s war in Ukraine continues, and the world’s major economic engines sputter.

The development lender said it expected global GDP growth of 1.7% in 2023, the slowest pace outside the 2009 and 2020 recessions since 1993. In its previous Global Economic Prospects report in June 2022, the bank had forecast 2023 global growth at 3.0%, Reuters reported.

It forecast global growth in 2024 to pick up to 2.7% — below the 2.9% estimate for 2022 — and said average growth for the 2020-2024 period would be under 2% — the slowest five-year pace since 1960.

The bank said major slowdowns in advanced economies, including sharp cuts to its forecast to 0.5% for both the United States and the euro zone, could foreshadow a new global recession less than three years after the last one.

“Given fragile economic conditions, any new adverse development — such as higher-than-expected inflation, abrupt rises in interest rates to contain it, a resurgence of the COVID-19 pandemic or escalating geopolitical tensions — could push the global economy into recession,” the bank said in a statement accompanying the report.

The bleak outlook will be especially hard on emerging market and developing economies, the World Bank said, as they struggle with heavy debt burdens, weak currencies and income growth, and slowing business investment that is now forecast at a 3.5% annual growth rate over the next two years — less than half the pace of the past two decades.

“Weakness in growth and business investment will compound the already devastating reversals in education, health, poverty and infrastructure and the increasing demands from climate change,” World Bank President David Malpass said in a statement.

China’s growth in 2022 slumped to 2.7%, its second slowest pace since the mid-1970s after 2020, as zero-COVID restrictions, property market turmoil and drought hit consumption, production and investment, the World Bank report said. It predicted a rebound to 4.3% for 2023, but that is 0.9 percentage-point below the June forecast due to the severity of COVID disruptions and weakening external demand.

The World Bank noted that some inflationary pressures started to abate as 2022 drew to a close, with lower energy and commodity prices, but warned that risks of new supply disruptions were high, and elevated core inflation may persist. This could cause central banks to respond by raising policy rates by more than currently expected, worsening the global slowdown, it added.

The bank called for increased support from the international community to help low-income countries deal with food and energy shocks, people displaced by conflicts, and a growing risk of debt crises. It said new concessional financing and grants are needed along with the leveraging of private capital and domestic resources to help boost investment in climate adaptation, human capital and health, the report said.

The report comes as the World Bank’s board this week is expected to consider a new “evolution road map” for the institution to vastly expand its lending capacity to address climate change and other global crises. The plan will guide negotiations with shareholders, led by the United States, for the biggest revamp in the bank’s business model since its creation at the end of World War Two.

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Five countries eager to invest in lithium mines in Nuristan: officials

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(Last Updated On: March 24, 2023)

The Islamic Emirate officials say five countries are interested in investing in the “lithium” mining sector in Afghanistan’s Nuristan province.

Mohammad Yunus Rashid, the deputy of youth in the Ministry of Information and Culture, said that Japan, the US, China, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are among the countries that are interested in investing in the mining sector of lithium mines in Nuristan province.

“There is a lot of interest in lithium mining at the global level, five countries have made contact with the Islamic Emirate and said that they are ready to invest in this sector,” said Rashid.

According to officials, there are high capacities for economic self-sufficiency in the country and positive changes will be made in the economic development of the country in the near future.

Economic experts meanwhile believe that if the extraction and processing of the country’s minerals are done in Afghanistan, the country can get out of the economic crisis very quickly.

“There are trillions of dollars of capacity in Afghanistan’s mines, which should be invested, the statistics should be accurate, the regions should be determined, in which areas we have what kind of mines,” said Kamaluddin Kakar, an economic expert.

In addition, members of the private sector say they are trying to invest jointly and individually with foreign investors in the mining sector. They call on the Islamic Emirate to hand over mining contracts to companies that have the ability to process in the country.

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Customs duties on essential food items drops by up to 70%

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(Last Updated On: March 20, 2023)

The Ministry of Finance said that based on the decision of the leadership of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan, customs duties on basic food items have dropped by between 50 and 70 percent in the last solar year.

As a result of this decision customs duties have been reduced to the value of 6.7 million afghanis this year, the ministry said.

The decision to decrease customs duties on the food items that include flour, wheat, cooking oil, rice, and sugar, was to keep the prices down on local markets.

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Kunduz commerce department’s revenues rise by 48%

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(Last Updated On: March 19, 2023)

Kunduz Directorate of Industry and Commerce officials say their revenues have increased by 48 percent this solar year.

According to officials, the institution has collected more than 12 million Afghanis from the extension and distribution of licenses to manufacturing companies.

Mohammad Rahim Sirat, head of Kunduz Directorate of Industry and Commerce, said they distributed licenses to 112 people and renewed the licenses for 303 people.

Meanwhile, Kunduz Municipality officials also announced that they have collected 120 million Afghanis in 11 months of the current solar year, which shows a 40 percent increase compared to the same period last year.

Tajuddin Sohak, the spokesman for Kunduz Municipality, said they collected 120 million Afghanis this year, which shows a 40 percent increase from 86 million afghanis last year.

But shopkeepers and owners of manufacturing companies in Kunduz complain about the lack of a market for their products. They say that in the past their goods used to be exported abroad, but now exports have declined.

“In the past, we used to export to Iran, Pakistan, and Iraq, but our exports have decreased compared to the past. We ask the government to cooperate with us to provide the basis for export,” Wasim Akram, an entrepreneur, said.

Local officials in Kunduz say they have always tried to facilitate trade. They express hope that in the new year their efforts for foreign marketing of manufacturing companies will produce good results.

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