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World Banks says Afghanistan’s economy adjusting to new realities

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The World Bank said in it’s latest Afghanistan Development Update report that the country’s economy is adjusting to a “new normal” following the collapse of the former government and take over by the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA).

According to the report, a sharp decline in public spending, lower household incomes, and reduced consumption caused aggregate demand to fall, while disruptions in the payment system and supply constraints further hampered private sector activities, initially forcing many businesses to close or scale down their operations.

The report noted that preliminary statistics on the gross domestic product (GDP) show that the economy contracted by about 20 percent in 2021.

However, the resumption of off-budget international support for humanitarian needs and basic services helped mitigate some of the negative impacts over the past year.

The report concludes that Afghanistan’s economy is now much smaller than before after contracting significantly. The economy has now reached a point where it is likely to plateau.

The World Bank stated that while inflation remains high, some indicators have improved: exports have increased, exchange-rate volatility has reduced, and domestic revenue collection is relatively healthy.

In addition, private businesses are adjusting to the new operating environment.

“While there are signs of economic stabilization and resilience of Afghan businesses, the country continues to face enormous social and economic challenges that are impacting heavily on the welfare of the Afghan people, especially women, girls, and minorities,” said Melinda Good, World Bank Country Director for Afghanistan.

“Living conditions showed slight improvements in the past few months, but deprivation remains very high across the country, and persistent inflation might further erode any welfare gains,” she added.

The report projects that the real GDP in 2022 will contract further, with an accumulated contraction of close to 30-35 percent between 2021 and 2022.

“A range of economic and political scenarios is possible for Afghanistan’s future. While all scenarios depend on continued off-budget aid from the international community, a more upside and sustainable trajectory requires actions by the interim Taliban (IEA) administration to unlock much-needed economic integration and domestic opportunities for the private sector to create jobs for the Afghan people,” added Good.

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Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan target Afghanistan in push to expand regional trade

According to Uzbek media, the initiative was discussed during the Uzbek-Kazakh Business Forum in Tashkent.

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Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are seeking to deepen economic cooperation and jointly expand into new regional markets, including Afghanistan, as part of broader efforts to strengthen trade and investment across Central Asia and the Middle East.

According to Uzbek media, the initiative was discussed during the Uzbek-Kazakh Business Forum in Tashkent, where business leaders and trade associations from both countries explored opportunities to promote their products in third-country markets, particularly Afghanistan, Syria and Iraq.

Afghanistan featured prominently in the discussions, with participants noting that Kazakhstan’s exports to Afghanistan reached nearly $500 million during the first seven months of 2025—almost matching the country’s total exports to Afghanistan for all of 2024. Officials said the long-term goal is to increase exports to $3 billion.

The forum also highlighted growing imports of mineral raw materials from Afghanistan. Participants discussed a proposed agreement to supply Afghan zinc ore to the Almalyk Mining and Metallurgical Complex in Uzbekistan.

Beyond Afghanistan, delegates examined emerging business opportunities in Syria and Iraq, where reconstruction efforts are expected to drive demand for food products, construction materials and industrial goods.

The forum also focused on improving regional logistics. Officials discussed using available capacity on Turkish freight trucks transiting Uzbekistan, a move expected to reduce transport costs and improve access to regional markets.

At the conclusion of the forum, both sides agreed to organise joint business missions to third-country markets, including Aleppo, Syria, in late September and Erbil, Iraq, in early October, with the aim of strengthening commercial partnerships and identifying new investment opportunities.

The discussions reflect growing economic cooperation between Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan as both countries seek to expand regional connectivity, diversify exports and strengthen trade links with neighbouring markets, including Afghanistan.

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Uzbekistan’s Fergana region strengthens economic ties with Afghanistan

The meeting followed a Fergana delegation’s visit to Afghanistan on July 26-27, during which officials and business representatives held talks in Kabul and Mazar-i-Sharif.

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Uzbekistan’s Fergana region is moving to deepen economic cooperation with Afghanistan after officials and business leaders agreed to fast-track joint investment projects and expand bilateral trade.

According to a statement from the Fergana Regional Administration, Governor Khayrullo Bozorov met with leading Afghan business figures, including Emerald Diamond Trading Director Abdul Hamid Anyuri, Kam Air Director Atilla Azimi, Tojmahal Petroleum Director Abdul Latif Nawruzi, and their regional partners to discuss practical measures for strengthening economic ties.

The meeting followed a Fergana delegation’s visit to Afghanistan on July 26-27, during which officials and business representatives held talks in Kabul and Mazar-i-Sharif. The delegation also inaugurated Fergana Trade Houses in both cities to promote trade and commercial cooperation.

“The parties agreed to accelerate the implementation of joint investment projects, increase bilateral trade and elevate cooperation to a new level,” the regional administration said.

Discussions focused on turning agreements reached during the Afghanistan visit into practical projects, identifying new investment opportunities, and expanding trade between the two sides. Afghan business representatives expressed interest in working with Fergana companies in key sectors including trade, agriculture, aviation, energy and logistics, while presenting several new investment initiatives.

Bozorov reaffirmed Fergana’s commitment to strengthening economic relations with Afghanistan, saying the regional administration stands ready to support joint projects and create favourable conditions for closer business cooperation.

The regional administration said the meeting reflects growing momentum in economic engagement between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan, with both sides seeking to expand cross-border trade, attract investment and develop new commercial partnerships as part of broader efforts to strengthen regional economic connectivity.

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Afghanistan invites Iranian investors to expand economic cooperation

Discussions focused on expanding private-sector cooperation, increasing joint investment, and boosting bilateral trade between the two countries.

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Afghanistan has invited Iranian investors to explore business opportunities and participate in joint economic projects as the country seeks to strengthen investment and trade ties with its western neighbor.

Kamaluddin Tawhidi, head of the Afghanistan-Iran Joint Chamber of Commerce, made the appeal during a visit to Iran, where he attended the “Economic Cooperation Opportunities with Afghanistan” conference in Alborz Province, according to Iran’s state broadcaster.

Speaking at the event, Tawhidi highlighted Afghanistan’s investment potential and encouraged Iranian businesses to take advantage of opportunities across a range of economic sectors.

Discussions focused on expanding private-sector cooperation, increasing joint investment, and boosting bilateral trade between the two countries.

Tawhidi said stronger economic partnerships could create new business opportunities and support broader regional economic growth.

The meeting comes as Afghanistan continues efforts to attract foreign investment and deepen economic cooperation with neighboring countries.

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