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World Banks says Afghanistan’s economy adjusting to new realities

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The World Bank said in it’s latest Afghanistan Development Update report that the country’s economy is adjusting to a “new normal” following the collapse of the former government and take over by the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA).

According to the report, a sharp decline in public spending, lower household incomes, and reduced consumption caused aggregate demand to fall, while disruptions in the payment system and supply constraints further hampered private sector activities, initially forcing many businesses to close or scale down their operations.

The report noted that preliminary statistics on the gross domestic product (GDP) show that the economy contracted by about 20 percent in 2021.

However, the resumption of off-budget international support for humanitarian needs and basic services helped mitigate some of the negative impacts over the past year.

The report concludes that Afghanistan’s economy is now much smaller than before after contracting significantly. The economy has now reached a point where it is likely to plateau.

The World Bank stated that while inflation remains high, some indicators have improved: exports have increased, exchange-rate volatility has reduced, and domestic revenue collection is relatively healthy.

In addition, private businesses are adjusting to the new operating environment.

“While there are signs of economic stabilization and resilience of Afghan businesses, the country continues to face enormous social and economic challenges that are impacting heavily on the welfare of the Afghan people, especially women, girls, and minorities,” said Melinda Good, World Bank Country Director for Afghanistan.

“Living conditions showed slight improvements in the past few months, but deprivation remains very high across the country, and persistent inflation might further erode any welfare gains,” she added.

The report projects that the real GDP in 2022 will contract further, with an accumulated contraction of close to 30-35 percent between 2021 and 2022.

“A range of economic and political scenarios is possible for Afghanistan’s future. While all scenarios depend on continued off-budget aid from the international community, a more upside and sustainable trajectory requires actions by the interim Taliban (IEA) administration to unlock much-needed economic integration and domestic opportunities for the private sector to create jobs for the Afghan people,” added Good.

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Afghanistan eyes direct Basmati rice imports from India amid tensions with Pakistan

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Afghanistan is exploring direct imports of Basmati rice from India as it seeks to diversify its supply sources amid ongoing tensions with Pakistan, according to a report by The Hindu.

The report said Indian exporters and Afghan importers are expected to meet next month to discuss expanding direct trade in Basmati rice, following preliminary talks between officials from both countries held last week with the facilitation of the PHD Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

Afghanistan consumes nearly 500,000 tonnes of Basmati rice annually and has traditionally relied on imports from neighboring Pakistan. However, industry sources told The Hindu that recent strains in Afghanistan-Pakistan relations have encouraged Kabul to seek alternative suppliers, including India.

Representatives of Afghanistan’s diplomatic mission in New Delhi reportedly took part in the discussions and expressed interest in increasing purchases of Indian Basmati rice. At present, some Indian rice reaches Afghanistan indirectly through traders in Iran and Dubai, a route that adds to transportation and transaction costs.

One proposal under consideration is to transport rice through Iran’s Bandar Abbas Port, subject to agreements between the two governments. The discussions are also expected to cover logistics, payment mechanisms, and the possibility of barter trade, with Afghanistan’s dried fruit exports to India seen as a potential component of future trade arrangements.

According to The Hindu, a direct trade arrangement could help India expand its share of Afghanistan’s Basmati market, which has historically been dominated by Pakistani suppliers.

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Afghanistan, Kyrgyzstan establish trade council to boost economic cooperation

The two sides signed a memorandum of understanding to establish the Afghanistan-Kyrgyzstan Trade Council.

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The Embassy of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan in Kyrgyzstan says the Afghanistan-Kyrgyzstan Business Forum has been held with the participation of officials from both countries.

According to a statement issued by the embassy, Acting Ambassador Abdul Shakoor Haqqani said Afghanistan supports strengthening bilateral trade relations and promoting joint economic initiatives between the two countries.

The statement added that the two sides signed a memorandum of understanding to establish the Afghanistan-Kyrgyzstan Trade Council. The council aims to strengthen ties between business communities, coordinate joint initiatives, and expand and support economic projects.

Meanwhile, Sayed Karim Hashemi, Chairman of the Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce and Investment, arrived in Kyrgyzstan on Saturday at the head of a trade delegation to participate in the forum.

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Afghanistan invites Turkish investors to expand joint investments

Participants stressed the importance of increasing private sector cooperation and creating new opportunities to boost trade and investment between Afghanistan and Türkiye.

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A high-level Afghan business delegation, led by the Chairman of the Balkh Chamber of Commerce and Investment, Mohammad Ibrahim Ghazanfar, participated in the Afghanistan–Türkiye Joint Business Council meeting in Istanbul, calling for expanded joint investment and stronger economic cooperation between the two countries.

According to a statement from the Balkh Chamber of Commerce and Investment, Ghazanfar invited Turkish investors and industrialists to explore investment opportunities across various sectors in Afghanistan, emphasizing the country’s potential for mutually beneficial partnerships.

The meeting brought together business leaders, investors, and private sector representatives from both Afghanistan and Türkiye to discuss ways to strengthen bilateral trade and economic ties.

During the event, several cooperation agreements were signed between Afghan and Turkish economic institutions. The agreements are aimed at expanding commercial relations, promoting joint investment projects, and enhancing economic cooperation between the two countries.

The meeting was chaired by Süleyman Güllü, Chairman of the Türkiye–Afghanistan Joint Business Council, and was attended by Mohammad Akbar Azimi, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’s Consul General in Istanbul, along with a number of businessmen and investors from both countries.

Participants stressed the importance of increasing private sector cooperation and creating new opportunities to boost trade and investment between Afghanistan and Türkiye.

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