Business
World Banks says Afghanistan’s economy adjusting to new realities
The World Bank said in it’s latest Afghanistan Development Update report that the country’s economy is adjusting to a “new normal” following the collapse of the former government and take over by the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA).
According to the report, a sharp decline in public spending, lower household incomes, and reduced consumption caused aggregate demand to fall, while disruptions in the payment system and supply constraints further hampered private sector activities, initially forcing many businesses to close or scale down their operations.
The report noted that preliminary statistics on the gross domestic product (GDP) show that the economy contracted by about 20 percent in 2021.
However, the resumption of off-budget international support for humanitarian needs and basic services helped mitigate some of the negative impacts over the past year.
The report concludes that Afghanistan’s economy is now much smaller than before after contracting significantly. The economy has now reached a point where it is likely to plateau.
The World Bank stated that while inflation remains high, some indicators have improved: exports have increased, exchange-rate volatility has reduced, and domestic revenue collection is relatively healthy.
In addition, private businesses are adjusting to the new operating environment.
“While there are signs of economic stabilization and resilience of Afghan businesses, the country continues to face enormous social and economic challenges that are impacting heavily on the welfare of the Afghan people, especially women, girls, and minorities,” said Melinda Good, World Bank Country Director for Afghanistan.
“Living conditions showed slight improvements in the past few months, but deprivation remains very high across the country, and persistent inflation might further erode any welfare gains,” she added.
The report projects that the real GDP in 2022 will contract further, with an accumulated contraction of close to 30-35 percent between 2021 and 2022.
“A range of economic and political scenarios is possible for Afghanistan’s future. While all scenarios depend on continued off-budget aid from the international community, a more upside and sustainable trajectory requires actions by the interim Taliban (IEA) administration to unlock much-needed economic integration and domestic opportunities for the private sector to create jobs for the Afghan people,” added Good.
Ariana Afghan Airlines has announced a reduction in cargo service rates on the Kabul–Delhi route as part of efforts to support Afghanistan’s trade and export sector.
The airline said the new cargo rate has been set at $1.20 per kilogram, a move intended to make air freight more affordable and accessible for Afghan traders and exporters.
Bakht-ur-Rahman Sharafat, head of Ariana Afghan Airlines, said the decision is expected to play a significant role in increasing exports of domestic products and strengthening commercial activity between Afghanistan and India.
He added that Ariana will continue to introduce new measures in the future to improve its services and better meet the needs of its customers.
Thirteen trade and investment memorandums of understanding (MoUs) worth more than $100 million were signed between private sector representatives of Afghanistan and Uzbekistan during a conference held in Kabul on Saturday.
The conference, which brought together business leaders and officials from both countries, focused on expanding bilateral economic cooperation, increasing trade volume, and identifying new investment opportunities.
Speaking at the event, Nooruddin Azizi, Minister of Industry and Commerce of Afghanistan, said economic relations between Afghanistan and Uzbekistan have gained notable momentum in recent months. He stressed that Afghanistan is actively working to strengthen regional trade ties and create a more favorable environment for investors.
Azizi added that Afghanistan offers significant investment potential, particularly due to its available workforce and emerging opportunities across multiple sectors, and is ready to welcome joint ventures with foreign partners.
Officials from the Ministry of Industry and Commerce of Afghanistan said the government has facilitated around $2 billion in investment across various sectors over the past year, reflecting growing investor interest in the country’s economy.
The Uzbek delegation also reiterated its commitment to expanding economic relations with Afghanistan, describing the agreements as an important step toward deeper regional cooperation.
Amanbay Orynbayev, head of Uzbekistan’s Karakalpakstan delegation, said his country places strong emphasis on long-term, transparent, and reliable economic partnerships. He encouraged Afghan traders to take advantage of joint investment opportunities to access new regional markets.
The Afghan private sector welcomed the agreements, expressing hope that increased trade engagement and business exchanges will further strengthen economic ties between the two neighboring countries.
Officials noted that the total value of agreements signed between Afghanistan and Uzbekistan has now exceeded $1.5 billion. If implemented effectively, these commitments are expected to contribute to increased trade flows and broader economic growth in Afghanistan.
A new multimodal freight corridor linking China and Afghanistan via Turkmenistan has been officially launched, aiming to improve the speed and efficiency of overland cargo transportation across Central Asia.
According to the Turkmenistan Embassy in London, the country has become part of a newly established route designed to accelerate freight deliveries between China and Afghanistan.
The corridor, developed with the involvement of Uzbekistan Railways’ subsidiary Uztemiryulcontainer, covers approximately 7,400 kilometers and is expected to reduce transit time to around 30 days, improving overall logistics efficiency.
Under the new route, containers are transported by rail from China through the Altynkol station in Kazakhstan, continuing via Uzbekistan to a logistics hub in Bukhara. From there, cargo is transferred to road transport and moved across Turkmenistan before reaching Herat in Afghanistan.
Officials say the new system integrates rail and road networks into a unified logistics chain, making transport more predictable and efficient.
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