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Peace talks ‘under threat’ as Taliban prepare for major spring offensive

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Unusually intense fighting in the winter by Taliban insurgents has spurred Afghan government preparations for more violence in the warmer spring, which international players fear will further endanger the nation’s fragile peace process, Reuters reported.

This comes after a sharp increase in attacks by the group since the signing of the US-Taliban agreement in Doha in February last year. 

General Scott Miller, the head of US forces and the NATO-led Resolute Support mission told Reuters that “Taliban violence is much higher than historical norms.”

“It just doesn’t create the conditions to move forward in what is hopefully a historic turning point for Afghanistan,” he said.

Typically fighting quietens down during the snowy winter months before the Taliban launch a “spring offensive” around March. However, this winter, fighting has been intense. 

Miller said that the fighting now was an indicator that not only would there be a spring offensive – a move many diplomats view as against the spirit of the Doha agreement – but that it could be more intense than before, Reuters reported.

This also comes as negotiations have largely stalled in Doha in recent weeks and Taliban leaders have left Qatar, a senior state department official said, leading to growing fears that talks could be on the brink of collapse.

“If the violence isn’t reduced, it’s going to make a peace process very, very difficult; it would be very difficult for any side to make the necessary compromises,” Miller said.

The Afghan government has instructed security forces to carry out a comprehensive troop restructuring and design operations to prepare for a “tough and hard” spring offensive, two government sources told Reuters.

They added that Afghanistan’s special forces from different institutions such as the military and police are being streamlined to operate under one command. Highly experienced commanders have been appointed to key areas, and security forces were planning to conduct more airstrikes to avoid losses on the ground.

An Afghan National Security Council spokesman said they were “ready for any kind of war”, though they remained in “active defence” mode.

Four Taliban sources said that most of their commanders had in recent weeks cut short annual training sessions after being called back to the battlefield to prepare for intensive fighting.

Three residents in areas dominated by the Taliban in north-eastern Afghanistan had noticed a pick-up in the group’s activity in recent weeks, telling Reuters they had seen Taliban fighters moving en masse, holding meetings in mosques and beginning food and recruitment drives.

“In the past two weeks the topics Taliban preachers preach, especially on Friday prayers… have changed,” said a tribal elder from Kunduz province who asked not to be named for security reasons. “They preach about… fighting against invasion, and they openly invite people to join them. It’s a clear message that they are preparing for another fight this spring.”

A member of what the Taliban considers its special forces told Reuters that the group was preparing to act when there was an announcement about foreign troops.

“If they don’t leave Afghanistan on the preset date then the USA, NATO and the world will face a dangerous war, a war that never happened in the past 20 years,” he said.

A Taliban spokesman did not reply to a request for comment on the spring offensive.

The administration of US President Joe Biden is reviewing its plans for Afghanistan, including whether to stick to the May 1 deadline in the troop withdrawal agreement former President Trump’s administration signed with the Taliban in February 2020.

Miller said his command recognised that foreign forces could be a target if the Taliban view the deal as breached.

Experts and diplomats see a vanishing window of opportunity for talks to survive, although sides say they are committed negotiating, Reuters reported.

“Talks seem already very close to falling apart,” said Ashley Jackson, co-director of the Centre for the Study of Armed Groups at the Overseas Development Institute. “The trouble is that (Washington) seems to grossly underestimate just how bad things could get and how quickly that could happen.”

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Omari and Iranian ambassador meet to strengthen Afghan migrant labor ties

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Pakistan’s actions target militants, not religious sites: Khawaja Asif

He rejected claims equating these operations with India’s alleged strikes on mosques and religious seminaries in Bahawalpur and Muridke, stressing that Pakistan does not target religious or civilian sites.

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Pakistan’s Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif has dismissed comparisons between Pakistan’s counterterrorism operations along the disputed Durand Line and what he described as India’s attacks on religious sites, saying such parallels are “entirely wrong and inappropriate.”

In a statement issued Tuesday, Asif said Pakistan’s military actions are strictly aimed at verified camps belonging to Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) militants operating from Afghanistan. He rejected claims equating these operations with India’s alleged strikes on mosques and religious seminaries in Bahawalpur and Muridke, stressing that Pakistan does not target religious or civilian sites.

The defence minister said the international community, including the United Nations, has repeatedly expressed concern over the threat of terrorism they claim is originating from Afghanistan. He said these concerns are reinforced by continued militant infiltration and attacks inside Pakistan, which, according to him, are carried out by armed groups entering from Afghan territory.

Referring to India’s allegations surrounding the Pahalgam incident, Asif said New Delhi has failed to present credible or verifiable evidence to support its claims. He added that Pakistan had offered to cooperate with an independent and impartial investigation, an offer that India declined.

Asif further said a recent United Nations report had described India’s actions as illegal and based on unsubstantiated claims, while affirming that Pakistan’s response was justified under international law. He said Pakistan has already addressed and clarified allegations regarding India, what he termed proxy extremist elements, and their alleged supporters.

Reiterating Pakistan’s stance, the defence minister said the country remains vigilant and determined to protect its sovereignty and national security. He emphasized that Pakistan will continue its counterterrorism efforts and will challenge what he described as baseless accusations and hostile narratives at all international forums.

Meanwhile, the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) has consistently rejected Pakistan’s accusations, maintaining that Afghanistan does not allow any group to operate from its soil. Afghan authorities have repeatedly stated that Pakistan’s security challenges are an internal matter and should be addressed domestically.

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Germany conducts first deportation to Syria in a decade

The deportation marks a historic shift in German migration policy and signals the government’s determination to enforce stricter measures against convicted foreign nationals.

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Germany has carried out its first deportation to Syria since the outbreak of the country’s civil war in 2011, sending a convicted Syrian national back to Damascus on a scheduled commercial flight.

The 37-year-old man, who had served a prison sentence in North Rhine-Westphalia for aggravated robbery, bodily harm, and extortion, was escorted by federal police to the Syrian capital, where he was handed over to local authorities on Tuesday, December 23.

The Federal Interior Ministry confirmed the deportation, which coincided with another removal of an individual to Afghanistan. The ministry said it had reached agreements with both Damascus and Kabul authorities to facilitate “regular” deportations of serious offenders and individuals considered security risks in the future.

The Afghan national had been imprisoned in Bavaria, including for intentional bodily harm. The ministry said this marked the second deportation of an Afghan criminal within a week.

“Criminals must leave our country. We stand for control, consequence, and zero tolerance towards offenders and threats,” said Interior Minister Alexander Dobrindt (CSU), emphasizing that the move reflects Germany’s commitment to law and order.

Dobrindt further justified the policy by highlighting the strain on local municipalities, which have faced challenges accommodating foreign nationals serving prison sentences. “We have reached the breaking point for a long time, and the overload in the municipalities is visible,” he said.

The deportation follows months of diplomatic negotiations after the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime in December 2024, which ended a 14-year civil war. The change prompted Germany to reassess its long-standing ban on returns to Syria.

The current coalition government, formed by CDU/CSU and SPD, explicitly committed in its agreement to resume deportations to Syria and Afghanistan, targeting criminals and “Gefährder” — individuals considered potential security threats. Chancellor Friedrich Merz has been a vocal supporter of the policy, meeting with Syria’s transitional president Ahmed al-Sharaa to discuss mechanisms for further returns.

The move carries symbolic weight amid heightened public concern over migration, with roughly one million Syrians currently residing in Germany, many of whom arrived during the 2015-2016 refugee influx under former Chancellor Angela Merkel.

While the German government asserts that the Syrian conflict is over, human rights organizations continue to caution against deportations, citing lingering instability, ongoing reconstruction challenges, and potential security risks for returnees.

The deportation marks a historic shift in German migration policy and signals the government’s determination to enforce stricter measures against convicted foreign nationals.

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