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Headline inflation in Afghanistan down to -10.2% in January: World Bank

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In January 2024, headline inflation experienced a significant downturn, reaching -10.2 percent on a year-on-year basis, the World Bank said in a report.

This substantial drop was largely due to a sharp decline in prices across both food and non-food categories, the report said.

Moreover, core inflation, which strips out the typically volatile food and energy sectors, also fell into negative territory, posting a rate of -6.5 percent on year-on-year basis.

“This ongoing core deflation reflects a troubling inability of both private and public sectors to stimulate sufficient demand. While this period of falling prices may offer temporary financial relief to the most vulnerable households by reducing the cost of living, it can also harm the broader macroeconomy,” the World Bank said.

According to the bank, Afghanistan’s exports contracted by 5 percent on year-on-year basis to $140.5 million in January 2024, down from $148.1 million the previous January.

Food exports to India jumped by 22 percent, compared to an 18 percent decline in Pakistan. Pakistan and India continued to be the top export destinations, claiming 45 percent and 34 percent of the total exports in January 2024, respectively.

The 2023 growth trend in imports extended into January 2024, hitting $830 million, up 37 percent from $600 million in January 2023.

According to the report, in 2023, the afghani (AFN) saw a significant 27 percent appreciation against the US dollar, buoyed by the influx of around $1.8 billion in UN cash shipments and an estimated $2 billion in remittances.

Revenues have been below the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’s (IEA) target during the first eleven months of FY2024, with border taxes underperforming despite a surge in imports.

Over the eleven-month span of FY2024, from March 22, 2023, to February 21, 2024, Afghanistan’s revenue collection reached AFN 189 billion, narrowly missing the target by 2 percent but marking a 5.6 percent increase from the previous fiscal year, the report said.

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Afghanistan, Turkmenistan agree to establish joint road transport commission

The sides also agreed to establish a joint commission to address road transport issues and improve coordination.

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Afghanistan and Turkmenistan have agreed to establish a joint commission on road transport and facilitate transit between the two countries following two days of talks in Herat.

Afghanistan’s Ministry of Transport and Civil Aviation said the meeting brought together technical delegations from both countries to strengthen bilateral transport and transit cooperation.

The talks focused on easing visa procedures for Afghan and Turkmen drivers and traders, operationalising the Lapis Lazuli transit corridor and increasing the movement of transit vehicles between the two countries.

The sides also agreed to establish a joint commission to address road transport issues and improve coordination.

Representatives from Afghanistan’s ministries of foreign affairs, industry and commerce and the railway authority attended the talks, alongside the Ministry of Transport and Civil Aviation. Railway links, bilateral trade and wider transit cooperation were also discussed, with private-sector representatives expected to participate in future discussions.

The agreement comes as Turkmenistan works to strengthen its role as a regional transport and logistics hub, using its road, rail and Caspian Sea infrastructure to connect Central Asia with markets to the west and south.

A key part of that network is the International Seaport of Turkmenbashi, which links Turkmenistan with Azerbaijan and onward routes towards the South Caucasus and Europe.

Turkmenistan’s transport infrastructure also forms part of the wider Middle Corridor, or Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, connecting China and Central Asia with Azerbaijan, Georgia and Türkiye before reaching European markets.

For Afghanistan, the Lapis Lazuli Corridor is particularly important. It connects Afghanistan through Turkmenistan and across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan, Georgia and Türkiye, providing a potential route towards European markets.

Rail links such as the Herat-Torghundi line could further connect Afghanistan’s markets with Turkmenistan’s wider transport network.

The latest agreement puts road transport and transit facilitation at the centre of efforts by the two neighbours to expand trade and strengthen regional connectivity.

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TAPI gas deliveries to Afghanistan and Pakistan expected to begin in 2027

Turkmenistan regards TAPI as a key project for diversifying its gas exports and strengthening regional economic cooperation.

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Turkmenistan expects natural gas supplies to Afghanistan and Pakistan through the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) pipeline to begin in 2027, according to the Turkmen Embassy in Islamabad.

Turkmen Ambassador Atajan Movlamov said construction of the strategically important Serhetabat-Herat section of the pipeline is expected to be completed by the end of this year.

Movlamov made the remarks during an Ambassadors’ Dinner hosted by the Lahore Chamber of Commerce and Industry in Islamabad.

He said the implementation of TAPI and other regional energy projects could strengthen Pakistan’s energy security while creating new opportunities for industrial development and economic growth.

The planned 1,800-kilometre pipeline is designed to transport up to 33 billion cubic metres of natural gas annually from Turkmenistan’s giant Galkynysh gas field through Afghanistan to Pakistan and India.

Turkmenistan regards TAPI as a key project for diversifying its gas exports and strengthening regional economic cooperation.

The Galkynysh field, which is the main resource base for TAPI, is among the world’s largest gas fields, with estimated reserves of more than 27 trillion cubic metres.

The project has faced years of delays, but recent construction and developments in the regional energy sector have renewed attention to TAPI as a potential link between Central Asian gas resources and South Asian energy markets.

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Dogharoun handles 60% of Iran’s exports to Afghanistan

Modoudi invited machinery manufacturing companies in Iran to establish operations in the area.

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Mohammadreza Modoudi, CEO of the Dogharoon Free Zone, has criticized what he described as the neglect of Dogharoun’s potential, saying Iran ranks first among all countries in terms of exports of goods to Afghanistan.

He said 60 percent of this large volume of exports passes through the Dogharoun border crossing, adding that, despite this, the region’s significant potential has been overlooked.

Modoudi invited machinery manufacturing companies in Iran to establish operations in the area.

He said it is time to take a realistic approach and transform Dogharoun from a transit route into a major hub for production, value-chain development and a driving force for international trade.

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