Business
Political and security uncertainty slow Afghanistan’s economic recovery
Continued political uncertainty and a possible decline in international aid is slowing down Afghanistan’s economic recovery from COVID-19, the World Bank said Monday in its latest country update.
The World Bank’s report, Setting Course to Recovery, shows that robust agricultural growth has partially buoyed Afghanistan’s economy, which shrunk by around two percent in 2020 – a smaller contraction than previous estimates.
However, lockdowns, weak investment, and trade disruptions have hit services and industries, increasing hardship and unemployment in cities.
Growth is expected to reach one percent in 2021 and top around three percent in 2022 as the COVID-19 crisis fades. Per capita incomes are unlikely to recover to pre-COVID levels until 2025 due to fast population growth, the report noted.
“The current political and security uncertainties have created serious hurdles to Afghanistan’s economic recovery from the COVID-19 crisis. A slower pace of recovery means higher unemployment, lower government revenues, and – ultimately – more difficult living conditions for Afghans,” said Henry Kerali, World Bank Country Director for Afghanistan.
A full recovery will be challenging as many firms have closed and jobs were lost. Private sector confidence has weakened amid difficult security conditions, uncertainty about the outcome of the ongoing peace talks, the possible withdrawal of international troops, and potential sharp declines in future international aid support.
The report also noted that droughts are expected in 2021 and will likely reduce agricultural activity, further weakening growth prospects.
The report emphasizes that a strong and sustainable partnership between the Afghan government and its international partners is key to driving recovery and restoring private sector confidence.
In that effort, the government needs to accelerate reforms to improve governance, fight corruption, mobilize revenue, and boost business.
The report also noted that simultaneously, donors can support private sector confidence through clearer multi-year aid commitments and by defining measurable priority reforms that condition continued grant support.
Pakistan’s kinno exports remain far below potential as regional tensions, high freight costs and weak government support continue to choke the citrus trade.
Despite being a leading global citrus producer, Pakistan is expected to export just 400,000–450,000 tonnes of kinno in the 2025–26 season, compared with an estimated capacity of 700,000–800,000 tonnes.
Exports in 2024–25 stood at around 350,000–400,000 tonnes, mainly to Russia, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, Indonesia and Central Asia. While better fruit quality this season has raised hopes, persistent crossing disruptions—especially with Afghanistan—and transport bottlenecks have offset gains.
Growers say prices have collapsed sharply, forcing panic sales. Rates for large kinno have fallen from over Rs120 per kg early in the season to as low as Rs75, while smaller fruit is selling for Rs35–40 per kg amid weak demand.
Industry leaders warn the crisis is crippling processing units and jobs. More than 100 factories reportedly failed to open this season, with dozens more shutting down as exports stall. Cold storages in Sargodha are nearly full, putting fruit worth millions of dollars at risk of spoilage, while growers fear losses of up to Rs10 billion.
Exporters are urging the government to urgently resolve issues, subsidise logistics, and help access alternative markets, warning that prolonged inaction could devastate farmers, workers and the wider economy.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has said that Tehran will facilitate trade and economic exchanges with Afghanistan, including easing procedures at customs and local marketplaces.
He made the remarks during a televised interview following his visit to South Khorasan province, which shares a border with Afghanistan.
Pezeshkian, in a separate event addressing local business leaders, highlighted the province’s strategic advantages, citing its rich mineral resources, proximity to neighboring countries such as Afghanistan and Pakistan, and access to the ocean via the Chabahar port. He described the region as “a golden opportunity not found everywhere,” emphasizing its potential for economic growth and cross-border commerce.
A Kazakh delegation led by the Deputy Minister of Finance of Kazakhstan met with Sediqullah Khalid, First Deputy Governor of Da Afghanistan Bank, to discuss ways of strengthening banking and economic cooperation between the two countries.
According to a statement issued by Da Afghanistan Bank, Khalid said the central bank is keen to establish regular and effective banking relations with Kazakhstan as part of broader efforts to expand bilateral trade.
He noted that enhanced banking cooperation would help facilitate trade, investment, and wider economic interaction between Afghanistan and Kazakhstan, while also contributing to financial stability at the regional level.
Members of the Kazakh delegation also emphasized the importance of developing banking and economic ties and expressed their readiness to expand joint cooperation.
The two sides further agreed to establish technical committees from both countries to hold expert-level discussions and advance practical steps for cooperation.
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