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SIGAR finds single key factor to ANDSF collapse was withdrawal of US troops
The United States’ Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) has found that the single most important factor behind the Afghan National Defense and Security Force’s (ANDSF) collapse in August last year was the US’ decision to withdraw military forces and contractors from Afghanistan.
This decision was taken after the US signed an agreement in February 2020, under former president Donald Trumps administration, with the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) – an agreement adhered to by President Joe Biden.
In their latest report, SIGAR stated that due to the ANDSF’s dependency on US military forces, these events destroyed ANDSF morale.
The ANDSF had long relied on the US military’s presence to protect against large-scale ANDSF losses, and Afghan troops saw the United States as a means of holding their government accountable for paying their salaries.
The US-IEA agreement made it clear that this was no longer the case, resulting in a sense of abandonment within the ANDSF and the Afghan population, SIGAR reported.
The agreement set in motion a series of events crucial to understanding the ANDSF’s collapse, SIGAR stated.
Among those included a drop in the number of US airstrikes; the fact that ANDSF remained reliant on the US military, especially as “the United States designed the ANDSF as a mirror image of US forces.
“This created long-term ANDSF dependencies. The United States created a combined arms military structure that required a high degree of professional military sophistication and leadership,” SIGAR stated adding that the ANDSF had stockpiles of US-provided weapons and supplies, but did not have the logistics capabilities to move these items quickly enough to meet operational demands and had to rely on a thinly-stretched Afghan Air Force to do so.
“As a result, ANDSF units complained that they did not have enough ammunition, food, water, or other military equipment to sustain military engagements against the Taliban (IEA).
“Additionally, the Afghan government failed to develop a national security strategy and plan for nationwide security following the withdrawal of US forces,” SIGAR stated adding that instead, former president Ashraf Ghani frequently changed ANDSF leaders and appointed loyalists, while marginalizing well-trained ANDSF officers aligned with the United States.
The constant turnover weakened military chains of command, trust, and morale in the ANDSF. “Young, welltrained, educated, and professional ANDSF officers who grew up under US tutelage were marginalized and their ties to the U.S. became a liability.”
SIGAR also stated that the United States created more long-term dependencies by providing the ANDSF with advanced military equipment that they could not sustain and that required a US military or contractor presence and that the US lacked any real way to measure the ANDSF’s development.
“The metrics DOD used were inconsistent and unable to measure the development of ANDSF capabilities and capacities over time,” SIGAR stated.
SIGAR also stated that while ANDSF members have either left Afghanistan, or are in hiding, there are those who “have joined extremist groups in Afghanistan.”
Russian ambassador in Kabul, Dmitry Zhirnov, on Sunday invited the political deputy prime minister Mawlawi Abdul Kabir to participate in an international meeting that is expected to be held in Kazan city, Tatarstan.
According to a statement issued by the deputy PM’s office, in his meeting with the Russian ambassador, Kabir thanked him for the invitation to this meeting and said that relations between Russia and Afghanistan are important and friendly and Russian businessmen should invest in Afghanistan.
He added that relations between Moscow and Kabul benefit both sides and can help development and stability in the region.
According to the statement, the Russian envoy said that his country is ready to cooperate with Afghanistan in various fields and wants to expand bilateral relations.
He added that cooperation and increased interaction between the Islamic Emirate and Russia can contribute to stability and economic development in the region.
The Directorate of Migration Affairs in Ghor says one person was killed, two were injured and more than 500 families displaced due to Saturday’s floods in two districts of the province.
The directorate added that floods occurred in Murghab and Chaharsada districts of Ghor, which affected more than ten villages in Marghab district and six villages in Chaharsada district.
According to the directorate, 55 shops, and 10 residential houses have been destroyed and the roads between the two districts are also blocked.
The directorate quoted Mir Ahmad Mosamem, the head of migrant affairs in Ghor, as saying that families from their original places are living in the open air in the mountains and are in urgent need of basic assistance.
According to him, the possibility of more losses is expected.
The ban on opium cultivation precipitated a staggering $1.3 billion loss in farmers’ incomes, equivalent to approximately 8 percent of the country’s GDP, the World Bank said in a new report.
The bank said that over the past two fiscal years, the real GDP of Afghanistan contracted by 26 percent, and the country’s economic outlook remains uncertain, with the threat of stagnation looming large until at least 2025.
According to the report, structural deficiencies in the private sector and waning international support for essential services are anticipated to impede any semblance of economic progress.
Half of Afghanistan’s population lives in poverty and 15 million people face food insecurity, it noted.
“Afghanistan’s long-term growth prospects depend on a significant shift from its previous reliance on consumption-driven growth and international aid to a more resilient, private sector-led economy that capitalizes on the country’s strengths,” said Melinda Good, World Bank Country Director for Afghanistan.
“For a sustainable future, Afghanistan needs to address harmful gender policies, invest in health and education, and focus on the comparative advantages it has in the agricultural and extractive sectors.”
The World Bank pointed out that the increase in Afghanistan’s trade deficit is another challenge for the country’s economy. According to the bank’s report, in 2023, Afghanistan’s imports increased by 23% and reached $7.8 billion.
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