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World Bank reports Afghanistan’s economic recovery remains ‘fragile’

The World Bank report revealed that Afghanistan’s trade deficit surged by 54 percent in 2024, reaching $9 billion, which represents 45 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP).

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In their January Economic Monitor report, the World Bank noted Monday that while Afghanistan’s economic growth in 2023-24 was a positive development, growth remained insufficient to significantly improve social indicators.

“High poverty, unemployment, limited resources, and weak purchasing power continue to leave millions vulnerable,” the report stated adding that the outlook remains fragile due to policy uncertainty, financial isolation, and inadequate human and
physical capital.

“A rapid decline in foreign aid could further weaken aggregate demand, exacerbating economic pressures,” the World Bank stated.

The World Bank report revealed that Afghanistan’s trade deficit surged by 54 percent in 2024, reaching $9 billion, which represents 45 percent of the country’s gross domestic product (GDP).

The report attributes this decline to a five percent drop in exports, totaling $1.8 billion, primarily due to a reduction in coal and textile exports.

“Coal exports saw the steepest decline, plunging 64 percent to $92 million as Pakistan shifted to its traditional suppliers,” stated the World Bank.

The report highlighted an 11.5 percent increase in Afghanistan’s revenue collection, primarily driven by non-tax revenue and taxes levied at the country’s borders.

“Revenue collection remained strong in the first ten months of FY2024-25 (March 22, 2024 – January 21, 2025), totaling AFN 190.5 billion ($2.5 billion), or 12 percent of annual GDP,” stated the report.

The report also noted the country’s central bank, Da Afghanistan Bank, suspended US dollar auctions from September 4 to December 9 last year, which contributed to the depreciation of the afghani (AFN). The auctions resumed in January 2025, with the bank injecting more than $100 million.

The World Bank noted that fragile trade relations with Pakistan pushed Afghanistan to diversify its export markets, with Iran, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan each contributing around three percent of total exports.

However, Pakistan remains the largest export destination, accounting for 45 percent, followed by India at 34 percent.

“Afghanistan’s export base remains heavily dependent on food and coal, which made up 60 percent of total exports in 2024, down from 80 percent in 2023,” the report read adding that “this
highlights the urgent need for Afghanistan to expand its export portfolio and reduce reliance on a few commodities and markets”.

The World Bank stated that domestic tax revenue meanwhile grew 11 percent to AFN 72.1 billion, contributing 2.8 percentage points to overall revenue growth.

Non-tax revenue increased by 22 percent to AFN 66 billion. This growth was driven by higher income from mining, tolls, vehicle registrations, passport issuance, transport services, railways, and telecommunications, the report read.

“Ministries responsible for non-tax revenue exceeded targets by eight percent, contributing 45 percent to inland revenue collection,” the World Bank stated.

Customs duties and fees grew 20 percent year-on-year to AFN 51.5 billion, contributing 4.5 percentage points to total revenue growth. This increase was fueled by higher imports, stronger trade ties with Iran and Central Asia, improved border management, and recent tariff adjustments.

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Over 2.13 million Afghan refugees repatriated from Pakistan

Officials say over 150,000 individuals were returned from Punjab alone, where enforcement efforts are being led by the Punjab Home Department’s Foreign National Security Cell.

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More than 2.13 million Afghan nationals have been repatriated from Pakistan to Afghanistan as part of an ongoing campaign targeting undocumented foreign residents, according to Pakistani authorities cited by local media.

Officials say over 150,000 individuals were returned from Punjab alone, where enforcement efforts are being led by the Punjab Home Department’s Foreign National Security Cell. The campaign includes inspections of thousands of residential areas and hundreds of markets, resulting in numerous detentions and legal cases against Afghan nationals found without valid documentation.

The repatriation process comes amid heightened tensions along key border crossings between the two countries. Hundreds of migrants have recently been sent back via the Chaman crossing, particularly during disruptions at other transit points.

The Torkham crossing—a major gateway for cross-border movement—has faced repeated closures. Although it briefly reopened, local officials in Nangarhar Province report that it was shut again after only a few hours. Authorities in Pakistan have not provided a clear explanation for the latest closure.

According to Sediqullah Quraishi, head of Nangarhar’s Information Department, the crossing was opened temporarily on Thursday before being closed again without official clarification.

Meanwhile, hundreds of Afghan migrants remain in temporary holding centers across Punjab, where they are undergoing registration and processing ahead of their return to Afghanistan. The large-scale repatriation effort continues to raise humanitarian and logistical concerns, particularly as border access remains unpredictable.

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Human Rights Watch calls Pakistani airstrike on Kabul rehab center ‘unlawful’

Patricia Gossman, senior associate Asia director at Human Rights Watch, said available evidence suggests the strike hit a well-known civilian medical facility.

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Human Rights Watch has condemned a recent Pakistani airstrike on a rehabilitation facility in Kabul, calling it “unlawful” and warning it could amount to a war crime.

The strike, which reportedly took place on March 16, targeted the Omid Drug Rehabilitation Center, located within the former Camp Phoenix complex in eastern Kabul. According to international agencies, at least 143 people were killed and more than 250 others injured, most of them patients undergoing treatment.

Patricia Gossman, senior associate Asia director at Human Rights Watch, said available evidence suggests the strike hit a well-known civilian medical facility.

“The available evidence indicates that the Pakistani airstrike against a well-known Kabul medical facility killing dozens of patients was unlawful,” she said, adding that authorities must determine why the site was targeted and who should be held accountable.

An employee of the center told the organization that three buildings were struck, including a dining hall, a residential building housing hundreds of patients, and a guard post. At the time of the attack, more than 1,000 patients were reportedly at the facility, many gathered to break their fast during Ramadan.

Human Rights Watch said satellite imagery and visual evidence show extensive destruction across the compound, with multiple structures either destroyed or severely damaged. The organization added that it found no indication the facility was being used for military purposes.

Under international humanitarian law, medical facilities are afforded special protection. The group stressed that attacks failing to distinguish between civilian and military targets, or those causing disproportionate civilian harm, may constitute serious violations of the laws of war.

Human Rights Watch has called on Pakistan to carry out a prompt, impartial investigation and ensure accountability if violations are confirmed.

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Torkham crossing closes again hours after brief reopening

Officials say the reason for the sudden closure has not been clearly communicated by authorities in Pakistan.

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Torkham closed

The key border crossing at Torkham crossing has once again been shut down, just hours after it was temporarily reopened, according to local officials in Nangarhar province.

Sediqullah Quraishi, head of information at the provincial Department of Information and Culture, said that on Thursday the Pakistani side allowed the crossing to open briefly to Afghan migrants. However, the crossing was closed again shortly afterward, leaving many travelers stranded.

Officials say the reason for the sudden closure has not been clearly communicated by authorities in Pakistan.

The Torkham crossing serves as one of the most important transit points between Afghanistan and Pakistan. Its repeated closures have caused significant disruption, particularly for migrants, traders, and families who rely on cross-border movement.

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