Regional
Gaza ceasefire and hostage release set to begin
During the first phase the Israeli army will pull back from some of its positions in Gaza and Palestinians displaced from areas in northern Gaza will be allowed to return.
A ceasefire in Gaza between Israel and Hamas is set to come into effect on Sunday morning with a hostage release to follow hours later, opening the way to a possible end to a 15-month war that has upended the Middle East, Reuters reported.
Israeli forces started withdrawing from areas in Gaza’s Rafah to the Philadelphi corridor along the border between Egypt and Gaza, pro-Hamas media reported early on Sunday.
The ceasefire agreement followed months of on-off negotiations brokered by Egypt, Qatar and the United States, and came just ahead of the Jan. 20 inauguration of U.S. President-elect Donald Trump.
The three-stage ceasefire will come into effect at 0630 GMT on Sunday.
Its first stage will last six weeks, during which 33 of the remaining 98 hostages – women, children, men over 50, the ill and wounded – will be released in return for almost 2,000 Palestinian prisoners and detainees.
They include 737 male, female and teen-aged prisoners, some of whom are members of militant groups convicted of attacks that killed dozens of Israelis, as well as hundreds of Palestinians from Gaza in detention since the start of the war, read the report.
Three female hostages are expected to be released on Sunday afternoon through the Red Cross, in return for 30 prisoners each.
After Sunday’s hostage release, lead U.S. negotiator Brett McGurk said, the accord calls for four more female hostages to be freed after seven days, followed by the release of three further hostages every seven days thereafter.
During the first phase the Israeli army will pull back from some of its positions in Gaza and Palestinians displaced from areas in northern Gaza will be allowed to return.
U.S. President Joe Biden’s team worked closely with Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff to push the deal over the line.
As his inauguration approached, Trump had repeated his demand that a deal be done swiftly, warning repeatedly that there would be “hell to pay” if the hostages were not released.
But what will come next in Gaza remains unclear in the absence of a comprehensive agreement on the postwar future of the enclave, which will require billions of dollars and years of work to rebuild.
And although the stated aim of the ceasefire is to end the war entirely, it could easily unravel.
Hamas, which has controlled Gaza for almost two decades, has survived despite losing its top leadership and thousands of fighters, Reuters reported.
Israel has vowed it will not allow Hamas to return to power and has cleared large stretches of ground inside Gaza, in a step widely seen as a move towards creating a buffer zone that will allow its troops to act freely against threats in the enclave.
In Israel, the return of the hostages may ease some of the public anger against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his right-wing government over the Oct. 7 security failure that led to the deadliest single day in the country’s history.
But hardliners in his government have already threatened to quit if war on Hamas is not resumed, leaving him pressed between Washington’s desire to see the war end, and his far-right political allies at home.
And if war resumes, dozens of hostages could be left behind in Gaza.
Outside Gaza, the war sent shockwaves across the region, triggering a war with the Tehran-backed Lebanese Hezbollah movement and bringing Israel into direct conflict with its arch-foe Iran for the first time, Reuters reported.
More than a year later, the Middle East has been transformed. Iran, which spent billions building up a network of militant groups around Israel, has seen its “Axis of Resistance” wrecked and was unable to inflict more than minimal damage on Israel in two major missile attacks.
Hezbollah, whose huge missile arsenal was once seen as the biggest threat to Israel, has been humbled, with its top leadership killed and most of its missiles and military infrastructure destroyed.
In the aftermath, the decades-long Assad regime in Syria was overturned, removing another major Iranian ally and leaving Israel’s military effectively unchallenged in the region.
But on the diplomatic front, Israel has faced outrage and isolation over the death and devastation in Gaza.
Netanyahu faces an International Criminal Court arrest warrant on war crimes allegations and separate accusations of genocide at the International Court of Justice.
Israel has reacted with fury to both cases, rejecting the charges as politically motivated and accusing South Africa, which brought the original ICJ case as well as the countries that have joined it, of antisemitism.
The war was triggered by Hamas’ Oct. 7, 2023, attack on southern Israel in which 1,200 people were killed and more than 250 taken hostage, according to Israeli tallies. More than 400 Israeli soldiers have been killed in combat in Gaza since.
Israel’s 15-month campaign in Gaza has killed nearly 47,000 Palestinians, according to Gaza health ministry figures, which do not distinguish between fighters and civilians, and left the narrow coastal enclave a wasteland of rubble.
Health officials say most of the dead are civilians. Israel says more than a third are fighters.
Regional
Russia sought to blackmail US using intelligence to Iran, Zelenskiy says
Zelenskiy, who said on Monday that Ukraine’s military intelligence has “irrefutable” evidence that Russia is continuing to provide intelligence to Iran.
Russia sought to blackmail the United States by offering to stop sharing military intelligence with Iran if, in return, Washington would cut off Ukraine from its intelligence data, President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on Wednesday.
Zelenskiy, who said on Monday that Ukraine’s military intelligence has “irrefutable” evidence that Russia is continuing to provide intelligence to Iran, told Reuters he had seen the data but provided no further details, Reuters reported.
Speaking in his presidential compound in Kyiv, Zelenskiy said that some Iranian drones, used to attack U.S. military assets and its allies during the war in the Middle East, contained Russian components.
“I have reports from our intelligence services showing that Russia is doing this and saying: ‘I will not pass on intelligence to Iran if America stops passing intelligence to Ukraine.’ Isn’t that blackmail? Absolutely,” Zelenskiy said.
He did not say who, according to the reports, Russia was addressing the comments to. Russia has denied assisting Iran in its month-old conflict with the United States and Israel – a denial that Washington said earlier this month that it had also received directly from Moscow when the issue was discussed.
Ukraine, which has faced sustained attacks by Iranian-designed Shahed drones since Russia launched its invasion in 2022, is helping several Gulf states – including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, and Qatar – to counter drone attacks on their territory, the president said.
Zelenskiy said he hoped that Ukraine would be able to reach long-term deals with some Gulf countries that would raise funds for the production of Ukrainian drone interceptors or receiving much-needed air-defence missiles, read the report.
Regional
Israel strikes Tehran as Trump says US negotiating to end war
Israel struck the Iranian capital Tehran on Wednesday, Israeli military and Iranian media said, as President Donald Trump said the U.S. was making progress in its efforts to negotiate an end to the war, with reports of a 15-point plan sent to Tehran.
The Israeli Defense Forces said in a Telegram post it had launched a wave of strikes targeting infrastructure across Tehran. The semi-official Iranian SNN News Agency said the strikes hit a residential area in the city, with rescuers searching the rubble, Reuters reported.
Kuwait and Saudi Arabia said on Wednesday they had repelled fresh drone attacks, without stating where they originated. Drones targeted a fuel tank at Kuwait International Airport, causing a fire but no casualties, Kuwait’s Civil Aviation Authority said.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said it had launched a new wave of attacks against locations in Israel including Tel Aviv and Kiryat Shmona, as well as U.S. bases in Kuwait, Jordan and Bahrain, Iranian state media reported.
Trump said on Tuesday the U.S. was in “negotiations” to end the war, which has already killed thousands and created the worst energy shock in history, leading to global fuel shortages and roiling markets.
Stocks rose and oil prices fell on Wednesday on reports the U.S. is seeking a month-long ceasefire and had sent a 15-point plan to Iran for discussion, raising hopes for a resumption of oil exports out of the Persian Gulf.
Trump told reporters at the White House the U.S. was talking to “the right people” in Iran to end hostilities, adding the Iranians wanted to reach a deal very badly.
Iran’s powerful parliament speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf on Monday dismissed such reports as “fake news.”
15 POINT PLAN SENT TO IRAN
The New York Times reported on Tuesday that Washington sent Iran a 15-point plan to end the war in the Middle East. Israel’s Channel 12, quoting three sources, said the U.S. was seeking a month-long ceasefire to discuss the 15-point plan.
A source familiar with the matter confirmed that the U.S. had sent a plan to Iran but provided no further details.
The Israeli media outlet said the plan would include the dismantling of Iran’s nuclear programme, ceasing support for proxy groups, such as Lebanon’s Hezbollah, and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The U.S. and Israel launched strikes on Iran on February 28 after saying they had failed to make enough headway in talks aimed at ending Iran’s nuclear programme, although mediator Oman said significant progress had been made.
Since then, Iran has attacked countries that host U.S. bases, struck Gulf energy infrastructure and effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, conduit for a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas.
Iran has told the United Nations Security Council and the International Maritime Organization that “non-hostile vessels” may transit the Strait of Hormuz if they coordinate with Iranian authorities, according to a note seen by Reuters on Tuesday.
The effective closure of the waterway, where 20% of the world’s oil and gas normally transits, has created the worst energy supply shock in history, sent fuel prices soaring, and disrupted global aviation.
PAKKISTAN OFFERS TO HOLD US-IRAN TALKS
Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said on Tuesday he was willing to host talks between the U.S. and Iran on ending the war, a day after Trump postponed threats to bomb Iranian power plants after what he called “productive” talks.
Pakistan has long-standing ties to neighbouring Iran’s Islamic Republic and has been building a relationship with Trump.
Despite reports of negotiations, the Pentagon is expected to send thousands of soldiers from the U.S. Army’s elite 82nd Airborne Division to the Middle East, two people familiar with the matter told Reuters on Tuesday, adding to a massive U.S. military buildup.
The forces will add to the 50,000 U.S. troops already in the region and accelerate Washington’s massive U.S. military buildup there, fuelling fears of a longer conflict.
Regional
US allies in Middle East ‘edging closer’ to joining conflict
Key U.S. allies in the Middle East are moving closer to direct involvement in the conflict with Iran, as sustained attacks on Gulf infrastructure intensify pressure on regional governments, according to a report by The Wall Street Journal.
Both Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are reportedly weighing deeper coordination with the United States and Israel, following repeated Iranian missile and drone strikes that have disrupted their economies and threatened regional energy security.
While neither country has formally committed troops, recent developments suggest a shift toward more active participation. The report indicates that Gulf support is already enhancing U.S. operational capabilities, including facilitating airstrike logistics and potentially opening new avenues to target Iran’s financial networks.
Saudi Arabia signals shift in stance
Saudi Arabia appears to be reassessing its position as attacks on critical infrastructure continue. Riyadh has reportedly allowed U.S. forces access to the King Fahd Air Base, a move that could support expanded military operations.
Foreign Minister Faisal bin Farhan warned that the kingdom’s tolerance for Iranian attacks is limited. “Any belief that Gulf countries are incapable of responding is a miscalculation,” he said following recent strikes on energy facilities.
Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is said to be considering stronger action to restore deterrence, with officials suggesting it may be only a matter of time before Saudi Arabia takes a more direct role in the conflict.
According to the WSJ report, one source said that “it is only a matter of time before the kingdom enters the war.”
UAE ramps up pressure on Tehran
The United Arab Emirates has also taken steps to increase pressure on Tehran, particularly through economic measures. Authorities in Dubai have shut down Iranian-linked institutions, including the Iranian Hospital and Iranian Club, citing violations of national laws and alleged links to state-backed activities.
Officials warned that further action could include freezing billions of dollars in Iranian assets held within the UAE, a move that could significantly impact Iran’s already strained economy.
Long regarded as a key financial hub for Iranian businesses, the UAE’s shift signals a notable escalation in its stance, even as it continues to deliberate over potential military involvement.
Regional tensions and strategic stakes
The growing alignment among Gulf states follows a series of attacks on energy facilities across Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, the UAE, and Qatar. Doha has condemned the strikes as a dangerous escalation and a direct threat to regional stability.
At the center of the war remains control over the Strait of Hormuz, a critical artery for global oil shipments. Iran’s ability to disrupt traffic through the strait continues to give it significant strategic leverage.
Risk of wider regional war
As the conflict approaches the one-month mark, Gulf states are maintaining close coordination with Washington over next steps. However, analysts warn that continued Iranian strikes could force regional powers into open confrontation.
With economic, security, and geopolitical stakes rising, the prospect of a broader regional war is becoming increasingly likely unless tensions are quickly contained through diplomatic efforts.
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