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Putin orders tactical nuclear weapon drills to deter the West

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Russia said on Monday it would practise the deployment of tactical nuclear weapons as part of a military exercise after what the Moscow said were threats from France, Britain and the United States, Reuters reported.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, Russia has repeatedly warned of rising nuclear risks - warnings which the United States says it has to take seriously though U.S. officials say they have seen no change in Russia's nuclear posture.

Russia says the United States and its European allies are pushing the world to the brink of confrontation between nuclear powers by supporting Ukraine with tens of billions of dollars of weapons, some of which are being used against Russian territory.

Russia's defence ministry said it would hold military drills including practice for the preparation and deployment for use of non-strategic nuclear weapons. It said the exercises were ordered by President Vladimir Putin.

"During the exercise, a set of measures will be carried out to practise the issues of preparation and use of non-strategic nuclear weapons," the ministry said.

Missile forces in the Southern Military District, aviation and the navy will take part, the defence ministry said.

The exercise is aimed at ensuring Russia's territorial integrity and sovereignty "in response to provocative statements and threats by certain Western officials against the Russian Federation", it said.

Russia and the United States are by far the world's biggest nuclear powers, holding more than 10,600 of the world's 12,100 nuclear warheads. China has the third-largest nuclear arsenal, followed by France and Britain.

Russia has about 1,558 non-strategic nuclear warheads, according to the Federation of American Scientists, opens new tab, though there is uncertainty about exact figures for such weapons due to a lack of transparency, read the report.

No power has used nuclear weapons in war since the United States unleashed the first atomic bomb attacks on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki in 1945.

Major nuclear powers routinely check their nuclear weapons but very rarely publicly link such exercises to specific perceived threats in the way that Russia has.

NUCLEAR RISKS

U.S. President Joe Biden said last year that he felt there was no real prospect of Russia using nuclear weapons but CNN reported that top U.S. officials did contingency planning, opens new tab for a potential Russian nuclear strike against Ukraine in 2022.

Some Western and Ukrainian officials have said Russia is bluffing over nuclear weapons to scare the West, though the Kremlin has repeatedly indicated that it would consider breaking the nuclear taboo if Russia's existence was threatened, Reuters reported.

"We do not see anything new here," said Andriy Yusov, a spokesperson for Ukrainian military intelligence. "Nuclear blackmail is a constant practice of Putin's regime."

The defence ministry, run by long-term Putin ally Sergei Shoigu, did not say which specific Western officials it was referring to in its statement.

The Kremlin said that it was in response to remarks by French President Emmanuel Macron, British officials and a representative of the U.S. Senate.

Macron has in public raised the idea of sending European troops to fight Russia in Ukraine while British Foreign Secretary David Cameron said that Ukraine had a right to use the weapons provided by London to strike targets inside Russia.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Western statements about sending NATO soldiers to Ukraine amounted to "a completely new round of escalation of tension - it is unprecedented, and of course it requires special attention and special measures".

Putin warned the West in March that a direct conflict between Russia and the U.S.-led NATO military alliance would mean the planet was one step away from World War Three but said hardly anyone wanted such a scenario, read the report.

WAR GAMES

NATO, created in 1949 to provide collective security against the Soviet Union, is currently holding the "Steadfast Defender" exercise, its largest since the end of the Cold War. NATO has not said whether it would include rehearsal of any nuclear element.

A nuclear command exercise by NATO in 1983 prompted fears at the top levels of the Kremlin that the United States was preparing for a surprise nuclear attack.

Putin has faced calls inside Russia from some hardliners to change Russia's nuclear doctrine, which sets out the conditions under which Russia would use a nuclear weapon, though Putin said last year he saw no need for change.

Broadly, the doctrine says such a weapon would be used in response to an attack using nuclear or other weapons of mass destruction, or the use of conventional weapons against Russia "when the very existence of the state is put under threat".

Putin casts the war as part of a centuries-old battle with the West which he says humiliated Russia after the Berlin Wall fell in 1989 by enlarging NATO and encroaching on what Moscow considers to be Russia's historical sphere of influence.

Ukraine and its Western backers say the war is an imperial-style land grab by a corrupt dictatorship. Western leaders have vowed to work for a defeat of Russian forces in Ukraine, while ruling out any deployment of NATO personnel there.

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Refugees return to Syria as caretaker prime minister appointed

Rebuilding Syria will be a colossal task following a civil war that killed hundreds of thousands of people

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Refugees from Syria's long civil war were making their way home on Wednesday, as a new interim prime minister said he had been appointed with the backing of the rebels who toppled President Bashar al-Assad.

U.S. officials, engaging with rebels led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), urged them not to assume automatic leadership of the country but instead run an inclusive process to form a transitional government.

The new government must "uphold clear commitments to fully respect the rights of minorities, facilitate the flow of humanitarian assistance to all in need, prevent Syria from being used as a base for terrorism or posing a threat to its neighbours," U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said in a statement.

HTS is a former al Qaeda affiliate that led the anti-Assad revolt and has lately downplayed its jihadist roots, Reuters reported.

In a brief address on state television on Tuesday, Mohammed al-Bashir, a figure little known across most of Syria, said he would lead the interim authority until March 1.

"Today we held a cabinet meeting that included a team from the Salvation Government that was working in Idlib and its vicinity, and the government of the ousted regime," he said.

Bashir ran the rebel-led Salvation Government before the 12-day lightning rebel offensive swept into Damascus.

Rebuilding Syria will be a colossal task following a civil war that killed hundreds of thousands of people. Cities have been bombed to ruins, swathes of countryside depopulated, the economy gutted by international sanctions and millions of refugees still live in camps after one of the biggest displacements of modern times.

With European countries pausing asylum applications from Syrians, some refugees from Turkey and elsewhere began making their way home.

Ala Jabeer cried as he prepared to cross from Turkey into Syria with his 10-year-old daughter on Tuesday, 13 years after the war forced him to flee his home.

He returns without his wife and three of his children who died in devastating earthquakes that struck the region last year.

"God willing, things will be better than under Assad's government. We've already seen that his oppression is over," he said.

"The most important reason for me to return is that my mother lives in Latakia. She can take care of my daughter, so I can work," Jabeer said.

In the Syrian capital Damascus, banks reopened for the first time since Assad's overthrow on Tuesday. Shops also opened again, traffic returned to the roads, cleaners were out sweeping the streets and there were fewer armed men about.

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Syria’s rebels work to form government, restore order after Assad ouster

Assad’s prime minister, Mohammed Jalali, on Monday agreed to hand power to the rebel-led Salvation Government

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The lightning overthrow of President Bashar al-Assad left Syrians, countries in the region and world powers nervous on Tuesday about what comes next as the rebel alliance took its first steps in a government transition.

The United Nations Security Council met behind closed doors late on Monday, and diplomats said they were still in shock at how quickly Assad's overthrow unfolded over 12 days, after a 13-year civil war that was locked in stalemate for years.

"Everyone was taken by surprise, everyone, including the members of the council. So we have to wait and see and watch ... and evaluate how the situation will develop," Russian U.N. Ambassador Vassily Nebenzia told reporters after the body met.

Russia played a major role in supporting Assad's government and helping it fight the rebels. The Syrian leader fled Damascus for Moscow on Sunday, ending more than 50 years of brutal rule by his family.

With the mood in Damascus still celebratory, Assad's prime minister, Mohammed Jalali, on Monday agreed to hand power to the rebel-led Salvation Government, an administration based in rebel-held territory in northwest Syria, Reuters reported.

The main rebel commander Ahmed al-Sharaa, better known as Abu Mohammed al-Golani, met with Jalali and Vice President Faisal Mekdad to discuss the transitional government, a source familiar with the discussions told Reuters. Jalali said the handover could take days to carry out.

Al Jazeera television reported the transitional authority would be headed by Mohamed al-Bashir, who has headed the Salvation Government.

The steamroller advance of the militia alliance headed by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a former al-Qaeda affiliate, was a generational turning point for the Middle East.

The civil war that began in 2011 killed hundreds of thousands, caused one of the biggest refugee crises of modern times and left cities bombed to rubble, countryside depopulated and the economy hollowed out by global sanctions.

But the rebel alliance has not communicated plans for Syria's future, and there is no template for such a transition in the fractious region.

The U.S. was seeking ways to engage with Syrian rebel groups and is reaching out to partners in the region such as Turkey to start informal diplomacy, Washington said.

Qatari diplomats spoke with HTS on Monday, an official briefed on the developments told Reuters, as regional states race to open contact with the group.

Some insurgent fighters who milled about the capital on Monday, clustering in the central Umayyad Square, expressed hope a civilian administration would soon be running the country.

"We want the state and security forces to be in charge," said Firdous Omar, a fighter who intends to resume farming in provincial Idlib.

Golani has vowed to rebuild Syria, and HTS has spent years trying to soften its image to reassure foreign nations and minority groups within Syria.

But fears of reprisals remained. HTS said it will not hesitate to hold security and army officers involved in torturing the Syrian people accountable, describing them as criminals and murderers.

"We will release a list that includes the names of the most senior officials involved in the torturing of the Syrian people," Golani said in a statement. "Rewards will be offered to those who will provide information about senior army and security officers involved in war crimes."

HTS is designated as a terrorist organisation by many states and the U.N., and its governing credentials are uncertain.

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Iran in ‘direct contact’ with groups in Syria’s new leadership

Assad’s fall as president removed a bastion from which Iran and Russia exercised influence across the Arab world

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Iran has opened a direct line of communication with rebels in Syria's new leadership since its ally Bashar al-Assad was ousted, in an attempt to "prevent a hostile trajectory" between the countries, a senior Iranian official told Reuters on Monday.

The lightning advance of a militia alliance spearheaded by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, a former al-Qaeda affiliate, led by Abu Mohammed al-Jawlani, marked one of the biggest turning points for the Middle East in generations.

Assad's fall as president removed a bastion from which Iran and Russia exercised influence across the Arab world.

Hours after Assad's fall, Iran said it expected relations with Damascus to continue based on the two countries' "far-sighted and wise approach" and called for the establishment of an inclusive government representing all segments of Syrian society.

There is little doubt about Tehran's concern about how the change of power in Damascus will affect Iran's influence in Syria, the lynchpin of its regional clout, Reuters reported.

But there is no panic, three Iranian officials told Reuters, as Tehran seeks diplomatic avenues to establish contact with people whom one of the officials called "those within Syria's new ruling groups whose views are closer to Iran's".

"The main concern for Iran is whether Assad's successor will push Syria away from Tehran's orbit," a second Iranian official said.

"That is a scenario Iran is keen to avoid."

A hostile post-Assad Syria would deprive Lebanese armed group Hezbollah of its only land supply route and deny Iran its main access to the Mediterranean and the "front line" with Israel.

One of the senior officials said Iran's clerical rulers, facing the loss of an important ally in Damascus and the return of Donald Trump to the White House in January, were open to engaging with Syria's new leaders.

"This engagement is key to stabilise ties and avoiding further regional tensions," the official said.

Contact with new Syrian leadership

Tehran has established contacts with two groups inside the new leadership and the level of interaction will be assessed in the coming days after a meeting at Iran's Supreme National Security Council, a top security body, the official told Reuters.

Two of the Iranian officials said Tehran was wary of Trump using Assad's removal as leverage to intensify economic and political pressure on Iran, "either to force concessions or to destabilise the Islamic Republic".

After pulling the United States out of Iran's 2015 nuclear deal with six major powers in 2018, then-president Trump pursued a "maximum pressure" policy that led to extreme economic hardship and exacerbated public discontent in Iran.

Trump is staffing his planned administration with hawks on Iran.

In 2020, Trump, as president, ordered a drone strike that killed Qassem Soleimani, Iran's most powerful military commander and mastermind of overseas attacks on U.S. interests and those of its allies.

"Iran is now only left with two options: fall back and draw a defensive line in Iraq or seek a deal with Trump," said Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group.

The fall of Assad exposed Tehran's dwindling strategic leverage in the region, exacerbated by Israel's military offensives against Hezbollah in Lebanon and the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza, Reuters reported.

Iran spent billions of dollars propping up Assad during the civil war that erupted in Syria in 2011 and deployed its Revolutionary Guards to Syria to keep its ally in power and maintain Tehran's "Axis of Resistance" to Israel and U.S. influence in the Middle East.

Assad's fall removes a critical link in Iran's regional resistance chain that served as a crucial transit route for Tehran to supply arms and fund its proxies and particularly Hezbollah.

 

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