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US strikes may have set back Iran nuclear program only months, sources say

A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the U.S. did not yet know the true extent of the damage.

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A preliminary U.S. intelligence assessment has determined that U.S. strikes over the weekend on Iranian nuclear facilities have set back Tehran’s program by only a matter of months, three sources with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.

The initial report was prepared by the Defense Intelligence Agency, the Pentagon’s main intelligence arm and one of 18 U.S. intelligence agencies, said two of the sources, who requested anonymity to discuss classified matters.

The assessment found that Iran could restart its nuclear program in a matter of months, according to the three sources, one of whom said it estimated the earliest restart could be in one to two months.

The classified assessment is at odds with the statements of President Donald Trump and high-ranking U.S. officials – including Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. They have said the weekend strikes, which used a combination of bunker-busting bombs and more conventional weapons, essentially eliminated Iran’s nuclear program.

Trump’s administration on Tuesday told the U.N Security Council that its weekend strikes had “degraded” Iran’s nuclear program, short of Trump’s earlier assertion that the facilities had been “obliterated.”

Asked for comment, the White House pointed to a statement by spokesperson Karoline Leavitt to CNN, which first reported the assessment, that the “alleged” conclusion was “flat-out wrong.”

“Everyone knows what happens when you drop fourteen 30,000 pound bombs perfectly on their targets: total obliteration,” she said.

A U.S. official who read the assessment noted that it contained a number of caveats and “ifs” and said a more refined report was expected in the coming days and weeks.

Analysts said that, if the assessment was based on satellite imagery, the extent of damage to the deeply buried Fordow uranium enrichment facility would not necessarily be revealed.

Trump has said the attacks were necessary to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon. Iran denies it is seeking such a weapon and says its nuclear program is for peaceful purposes.

Assessing the damage at the Fordow, Isfahan and Natanz nuclear sites is expected to be a difficult task, and the DIA is not the only agency tasked with the job. One source said the assessment was not universally accepted and had generated significant disagreement.

A U.S. official, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the U.S. did not yet know the true extent of the damage.

Still, the initial assessment indicated the strikes may not have been nearly as successful as the Trump administration has claimed.

The sources said that the report found that the U.S. attack had caved in facility entrances and destroyed or damaged infrastructure. However, one added, the strike did not collapse underground buildings.

Restarting operations would basically depend on “how long it takes them to dig out and build or repair” power and water supply facilities, said the second source.

The Washington Post, citing a person familiar the report, said some centrifuges for enriching uranium were intact.

The Pentagon disputed the notion that the damage was insignificant, though it did not dispute that the DIA assessment exists.

“Based on everything we have seen — and I’ve seen it all — our bombing campaign obliterated Iran’s ability to create nuclear weapons,” Hegseth said in a statement to Reuters.

“Our massive bombs hit exactly the right spot at each target—and worked perfectly. The impact of those bombs is buried under a mountain of rubble in Iran; so anyone who says the bombs were not devastating is just trying to undermine the President and the successful mission.”

One source, however, said Iran’s enriched uranium stocks had not been eliminated.

David Albright, a former U.N. nuclear inspector, said that based on post-strike commercial satellite imagery, he believed the U.S. attack effectively destroyed Iran’s uranium enrichment program for now, but failed to eliminate the longer-term threat.

“Iran retains an ability to break out and produce weapon-grade uranium,” said Albright, the head of the Institute for Science and International Security, in a post on X.

He noted that Iran’s stock of near-weapons grade highly enriched uranium – enough for about nine warheads – is unaccounted for as are advanced centrifuges for a new enrichment facility that Iran this month told the IAEA it was preparing.

Initial military assessments can change as more information comes to light and it is not uncommon for opinions to vary across different U.S. intelligence agencies.

Democrats have previously said Trump’s claims that the weekend strikes eliminated or seriously set back Iran’s nuclear program were not yet backed by evidence.

“There’s zero evidence that I’ve seen that the nuclear program was completely and totally obliterated as Donald Trump has claimed,” House of Representatives Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries said on Monday.

Classified briefings on the matter for members of the House of Representatives and Senate were canceled on Tuesday.

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Death toll from migrant rush into Spanish enclave in North Africa rises to 72

Authorities have reinforced police and army patrols. A 500-metre (1,600-foot) floating barrier was installed off Ceuta on Saturday.

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The death toll from a mass rush of migrants from Morocco into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta last week reached at least 72 ‌on Sunday, as five more bodies were found along the North African coast, officials said, Reuters reported.

The number of fatalities was considerably higher than what was announced by Moroccan authorities on Sunday.

More than 50,000 people crossed into Ceuta by land and sea in an unprecedented surge that began on Thursday at one of the European Union’s only two land borders ​with Africa, prompting alarm across the bloc. More than 48,000 returned to Morocco within 48 hours and more did so over the weekend, Spanish authorities ​said.

The Spanish government representative in Ceuta, Miguel Angel Perez, told reporters on Sunday that, in addition to the 72 fatalities, ⁠more than 1,000 people had been treated by health services. The situation in the enclave had improved markedly, he said, but more remained to be ​done to re-establish normality.

Some migrants drowned and others were crushed while trying to climb a breakwater and border fence. Many had been driven to migrate by ​economic hardship and encouraged by social media rumours.

Morocco’s Interior Ministry said in a statement on Sunday that 11 people had died, mostly by drowning while trying to cross into Spanish territory, noting that it was fact-checking reports on deaths from the other side of the border, read the report.

The ministry blamed the rush of migrants on social media misinformation, human ​trafficking networks and misinterpretation of a Spanish ruling banning immediate returns of migrants intercepted at sea. That statement is similar to the Spanish Foreign Ministry’s comments on ​the matter.

Moroccan authorities set the number of those involved in the crossing at 40,000, far lower than the figure used by Spanish officials, adding that 1,135 were ‌stopped from ⁠entering Melilla, another Spanish enclave.

The statement reiterated that Morocco was committed to countering illegal migration and called for the burden of managing migration to be shared.

“It pains me deeply that young people are dying at sea. It’s not right that, in the year 2026, women with children as young as two months old should be crossing the sea only to die,” Karima Abenaz, a French national in Ceuta with family in Morocco, said while holding back tears.

“In ​Morocco, there’s food, there’s everything we need,” she added. “If we don’t have ​a decent job, we should go ⁠on strike and demand our rights from the government. We shouldn’t be dying at sea, it’s not right.”

Ceuta leader Juan Jesus Vivas told the newspaper El Pais the city’s morgue had received 88 corpses, including some who had died in earlier, smaller ​attempts to reach the territory in hazardous night-time swims over the past two weeks. He said Moroccan authorities ​were also recovering bodies ⁠from the sea, but no official information was available.

Authorities have reinforced police and army patrols. A 500-metre (1,600-foot) floating barrier was installed off Ceuta on Saturday.

Twenty-two European Union member states wrote a letter asking for coordinated action to protect external borders and other measures after the Ceuta incident. Italy suspended passport-free Schengen travel arrangements with Spain for one month, Reuters reported.

Spain has ⁠adopted a ​more open stance on migrants than most other EU countries, introducing a programme to grant residency ​to more than half a million undocumented people.

It has rejected suggestions that the scheme encouraged the rush into Ceuta, saying that those who entered the enclave irregularly could not travel on to ​mainland Spain or elsewhere in the Schengen zone.

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Three killed, two injured in shooting at Idaho shopping center

Authorities said at least two other people were wounded and transported for medical treatment. Their conditions were not immediately released.

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Three people, including the suspected gunman, were killed and at least two others were injured after a shooting at a busy shopping area in Twin Falls, Idaho, on Saturday, local authorities said.

The incident occurred at around 2:30 p.m. local time near an In-N-Out Burger restaurant in a high-traffic commercial district, according to Josh Palmer, the city’s public information coordinator.

Twin Falls Police Chief Matthew Hicks said the suspected shooter was among the dead and confirmed that the threat to the community had been eliminated.

“At this point, the shooter is no longer a threat,” Hicks told reporters, adding that investigators are working to identify the suspect and determine a motive for the attack.

Authorities said at least two other people were wounded and transported for medical treatment. Their conditions were not immediately released.

Following the shooting, the Twin Falls Police Department temporarily closed roads surrounding the scene, including a nearby bridge, as officers secured the area and launched an investigation.

Twin Falls, with a population of about 47,400, is located in Idaho’s Magic Valley region.

Police have not yet released additional details about the victims or the circumstances surrounding the shooting, and the investigation remains ongoing.

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Saar: Trade shifts from Pakistan to Central Asia and Iran discussed

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