Climate Change
World on ‘thin ice’ as UN climate report gives stark warning
Humanity still has a chance, close to the last, to prevent the worst of climate change’s future harms, a top United Nations panel of scientists said Monday.
But doing so requires quickly slashing nearly two-thirds of carbon pollution by 2035, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said. The United Nations chief said it more bluntly, calling for an end to new fossil fuel exploration and for rich countries to quit coal, oil and gas by 2040.
“Humanity is on thin ice — and that ice is melting fast,” United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said. “Our world needs climate action on all fronts — everything, everywhere, all at once.”
Stepping up his pleas for action on fossil fuels, Guterres called for rich countries to accelerate their target for achieving net zero emissions to as early as 2040, and developing nations to aim for 2050 — about a decade earlier than most current targets. He also called for them to stop using coal by 2030 and 2040, respectively, and ensure carbon-free electricity generation in the developed world by 2035, meaning no gas-fired power plants either.
That date is key because nations soon have to come up with goals for pollution reduction by 2035, according to the Paris climate agreement. After contentious debate, the U.N. science report approved Sunday concluded that to stay under the warming limit set in Paris the world needs to cut 60% of its greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, compared with 2019, adding a new target not previously mentioned in six previous reports issued since 2018.
“The choices and actions implemented in this decade will have impacts for thousands of years,” the report said, calling climate change “a threat to human well-being and planetary health.”
“We are not on the right track but it’s not too late,” said report co-author and water scientist Aditi Mukherji. “Our intention is really a message of hope, and not that of doomsday.’’
With the world only a few tenths of a degree away from the globally accepted goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times, scientists stressed a sense of urgency. The goal was adopted as part of the 2015 Paris climate agreement and the world has already warmed 1.1 degrees Celsius.
This is likely the last warning the Nobel Peace Prize-winning collection of scientists will be able to make about the 1.5 mark because their next set of reports may well come after Earth has either passed the mark or is locked into exceeding it soon, several scientists, including report authors, told The Associated Press.
After 1.5 degrees “the risks are starting to pile on,” said report co-author Francis X. Johnson, a climate, land and policy scientist at the Stockholm Environment Institute. The report mentions “tipping points” around that temperature of species extinction, including coral reefs, irreversible melting of ice sheets and sea level rise of several meters.
“1.5 is a critical critical limit, particularly for small islands and mountain (communities) which depend on glaciers,” said Mukherji.
“The window is closing if emissions are not reduced as quickly as possible,” Johnson said in an interview. “Scientists are rather alarmed.”
Many scientists, including at least three co-authors, said hitting 1.5 degrees is inevitable.
“We are pretty much locked into 1.5,” said report co-author Malte Meinshausen, a climate scientist at the University of Melbourne in Australia. “There’s very little way we will be able to avoid crossing 1.5 C sometime in the 2030s ” but the big issue is whether the temperature keeps rising from there or stabilizes.
Guterres insisted “the 1.5-degree limit is achievable.” Science panel chief Hoesung Lee said so far the world is far off course.
If current consumption and production patterns continue, Lee said, “the global average 1.5 degrees temperature increase will be seen sometime in this decade.”
Scientists emphasize that the world or humanity won’t end suddenly if Earth passes the 1.5 degree mark. Mukherji said “it’s not as if it’s a cliff that we all fall off.” But an earlier IPCC report detailed how the harms — including even nastier extreme weather — are much worse beyond 1.5 degrees of warming.
“It is certainly prudent to be planning for a future that’s warmer than 1.5 degrees,” said IPCC report review editor Steven Rose, an economist at the Electric Power Research Institute in the United States.
If the world continues to use all the fossil fuel-powered infrastructure either existing now or proposed, Earth will warm at least 2 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times, the report said.
Because the report is based on data from a few years ago, the calculations about fossil fuel projects already in the pipeline do not include the increase in coal and natural gas use after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It comes a week after the Biden Administration in the United States approved the huge Willow oil-drilling project in Alaska, which could produce up to 180,000 barrels of oil a day.
Climate Change
Forty drown in France as people seek relief from Europe’s heatwave
France experienced its hottest day on record on Tuesday, Meteo France forecaster said, with a peak of 44.3 degrees Celsius (111.74 degrees Fahrenheit) in one town in the south west.
Forty people have drowned in France over recent days as they sought to cool down to escape record heat, the prime minister said on Tuesday, as a heatwave swept across much of Europe.
Britain, Italy, Switzerland and Spain were also sweltering in extreme heat, with record temperatures in some areas disrupting schools and transport networks and forcing tourist sites – including the Eiffel Tower – to shut.
Europe is warming at more than twice the global average, according to the World Meteorological Organization, making such prolonged heat episodes increasingly likely.
HEAT ALERT ACROSS FRANCE
France experienced its hottest day on record on Tuesday, Meteo France forecaster said, with a peak of 44.3 degrees Celsius (111.74 degrees Fahrenheit) in one town in the south west.
Fifty-four departments are under red alerts in what Meteo France said was unprecedented. That will jump to 58 on Wednesday.
Across the country, people have been jumping into canals and rivers to cool off. Sports minister Marina Ferrari said she understood the urge to escape the heat but warned against swimming in unauthorized or dangerous areas.
Speaking ahead of an emergency meeting on the heatwave, Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu called the drownings “a sad scourge” and said there had been 40 deaths since June 18, most of them young people.
On Monday, first responders were unable to resuscitate two children, aged 2 and 4, who were found unconscious by their mother in the family car outside their home, said a prosecutor in Carpentras, southeast France.
HEAT DOME
The heatwave is being driven by a weather pattern known as an Omega block, because it takes the shape of the Greek letter Ω, with a bulge of hot air trapped between cooler systems, allowing temperatures to build day after day. Heatwaves and storms are being intensified by climate change.
Meteo France said current conditions were comparable to the August 2003 heatwave, which lasted 16 days and led to an estimated 80,000 excess deaths across Europe. It was uncertain how long the current episode would last.
“Thursday will once again be a sweltering day (in France), with temperatures remaining just as high. On Friday, a gradual drop is expected to begin from the Atlantic coast,” the weather forecaster said.
Heatwaves can affect people’s physical and mental health but also force businesses to adapt and put grain harvests at risk.
HEAT ALERTS IN ITALY, BRITAIN
In Italy, the health ministry issued its highest level alert for 15 cities and authorities took measures to curtail work in some sectors. Storms were expected over the Alps and Apennines, bringing heavy rain, gusty winds and hail.
Britain is also in the grip of the heat, with the Met Office forecasting temperatures of up to 37 C in southern England on Tuesday — potentially a new June record — before rising further on Wednesday and Thursday. Dozens of schools planned early closures.
Transport networks across Europe came under strain, with trains cancelled or running more slowly.
CLIMATE SHELTERS
Spain’s meteorological agency has issued red alerts across parts of the country, warning of dangerous heat with temperatures expected to reach 44 C. Dozens of municipalities across northern Spain cancelled traditional bonfires due to wildfire risks.
Madrid has opened climate shelters for the homeless and other vulnerable people.
In Belgium, soaring temperatures forced a primary school near Brussels to relocate its final exams to a nearby church.
In Switzerland, the northeastern canton of St. Gallen restricted water withdrawal from rivers and lakes, citing low levels and high temperatures.
TRYING TO ADAPT
In cities affected by the heatwave, fans and air conditioning units were flying off the shelves.
“I came quick, I haven’t even had my coffee this morning, I ran here to buy an electric fan,” said filmmaker Victoria Yakubov, who managed to snag one last remaining fan in a Paris shop. “Everything was gone in less than 30 minutes.”
It was the same story in London, with fans “flying off the shelves”, John Lewis Oxford street branch manager, Paul Marsden said.
As parts of Europe baked, and the Eiffel Tower closed at 4 p.m. (1400 GMT) because of the heat, cooler northern destinations were drawing tourists seeking a “coolcation”.
“We were thinking about travelling to Croatia, but we came to Sweden because it’s cooler here,” said German tourist Katharina Rexing in Stockholm’s Old Town, on a day when it was 22 C in the Swedish capital and 30 C in Croatia’s Zagreb.
Climate Change
UN urges the world to ready for extreme heat risk from El Nino
The weather pattern is known to disrupt regional climates, potentially bringing warmer temperatures across the globe, while increasing rainfall to the southern parts of South America and the United States, parts of the Horn of Africa and central Asia.
The United Nations weather agency forecast on Tuesday a moderate or possibly a strong El Nino that could drive up global temperatures and increase the risk of extreme weather over the coming months.
El Nino is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, which typically lasts between nine and 12 months, according to the World Meteorological Organization.
The WMO said warm ocean waters were driving El Nino’s development and predicted above-average temperatures in most parts of the world from June to August. The WMO said it is likely El Nino will continue until November.
It also said it remained uncertain how strong El Nino will be as models differ on its severity, but officials warned of the need to be ready.
“We need to prepare for a potentially strong El Nino event – which will exacerbate drought and heavy rainfall and increase the risk of heatwaves both on land and in the ocean,” said WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo.
MORE DROUGHTS, HURRICANES AND HEAT?
The weather pattern is known to disrupt regional climates, potentially bringing warmer temperatures across the globe, while increasing rainfall to the southern parts of South America and the United States, parts of the Horn of Africa and central Asia.
El Nino can also cause drought in Australia, Central America, Indonesia, and parts of south Asia, and spur hurricane formation in the central and eastern Pacific, the WMO said.
The last El Nino, which meteorologists said was strong, in 2023 to 2024 contributed to making 2024 the hottest year on record, Saulo said.
Saulo said other risks associated with extreme heat included a wider spread of diseases borne by vectors such as mosquitoes and ticks and reduced food and water supplies.
“Communities that were already struggling will be pushed farther beyond their limits,” she said.
For consumers, facing inflation because of the Iran war, food prices may rise further because of El Nino.
Hein Schumacher, CEO of Barry Callebaut, one of the world’s biggest cocoa processors, warned crops in the growing regions of Ecuador and West Africa that account for 60% of global output could be reduced.
“This is something that we are very cautiously observing,” he told media on a call on Tuesday. “El Nino could have an effect that could lead to, you know, a few thousands per ton.”
London cocoa futures are trading at £2,944 ($3,964.10) per metric ton, down from more than 9,000 in April 2024.
Some national weather agencies have forecast the strongest El Nino in a decade.
The WMO is more circumspect but said it had observed unusually warm subsurface conditions across the tropical Pacific with temperatures exceeding 6 degrees Celsius (10.8 degrees Fahrenheit) above average, creating a reservoir of heat that is driving surface warming.
U.N. Secretary-General António Guterres said it was a reminder of the need for a shift away from fossil fuels towards renewable energy.
“The world must treat it as the urgent climate warning it is. El Nino conditions will pour fuel on the fire of a warming world,” he said.
Climate Change
Afghanistan climate and housing challenges highlighted at World Urban Forum in Baku
Speakers also urged developed nations to expand support for vulnerable countries dealing with climate change, rapid urbanization and housing shortages.
The World Urban Forum, which opened Sunday in Baku, Azerbaijan, continued Tuesday with a special session focused on Afghanistan and the country’s growing urban and environmental challenges.
Ariana News correspondent Naweed Bahar, reporting from Baku, said the panel is expected to feature remarks from the head of UN-Habitat in Afghanistan and will examine key issues affecting the country.
According to forum reports, discussions will focus on the impact of climate change in Afghanistan, the social and economic pressures caused by the return of millions of migrants, and the country’s worsening housing crisis.
An Afghan delegation led by officials from the National Environmental Protection Agency is also participating in the forum and is expected to hold meetings with representatives of several countries and international organizations.
Talks are expected to include environmental projects, international assistance for climate-related challenges, and possible cooperation to help address Afghanistan’s housing and urban development needs.
During the forum’s general session on Monday, several world leaders called on the United Nations to strengthen efforts toward creating safe, sustainable and accessible cities around the world.
Speakers also urged developed nations to expand support for vulnerable countries dealing with climate change, rapid urbanization and housing shortages.
The World Urban Forum will continue through May 23, with a series of sessions dedicated to climate change, urban development and housing issues affecting vulnerable nations globally.
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