Climate Change
World on ‘thin ice’ as UN climate report gives stark warning
Humanity still has a chance, close to the last, to prevent the worst of climate change’s future harms, a top United Nations panel of scientists said Monday.
But doing so requires quickly slashing nearly two-thirds of carbon pollution by 2035, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change said. The United Nations chief said it more bluntly, calling for an end to new fossil fuel exploration and for rich countries to quit coal, oil and gas by 2040.
“Humanity is on thin ice — and that ice is melting fast,” United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said. “Our world needs climate action on all fronts — everything, everywhere, all at once.”
Stepping up his pleas for action on fossil fuels, Guterres called for rich countries to accelerate their target for achieving net zero emissions to as early as 2040, and developing nations to aim for 2050 — about a decade earlier than most current targets. He also called for them to stop using coal by 2030 and 2040, respectively, and ensure carbon-free electricity generation in the developed world by 2035, meaning no gas-fired power plants either.
That date is key because nations soon have to come up with goals for pollution reduction by 2035, according to the Paris climate agreement. After contentious debate, the U.N. science report approved Sunday concluded that to stay under the warming limit set in Paris the world needs to cut 60% of its greenhouse gas emissions by 2035, compared with 2019, adding a new target not previously mentioned in six previous reports issued since 2018.
“The choices and actions implemented in this decade will have impacts for thousands of years,” the report said, calling climate change “a threat to human well-being and planetary health.”
“We are not on the right track but it’s not too late,” said report co-author and water scientist Aditi Mukherji. “Our intention is really a message of hope, and not that of doomsday.’’
With the world only a few tenths of a degree away from the globally accepted goal of limiting warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times, scientists stressed a sense of urgency. The goal was adopted as part of the 2015 Paris climate agreement and the world has already warmed 1.1 degrees Celsius.
This is likely the last warning the Nobel Peace Prize-winning collection of scientists will be able to make about the 1.5 mark because their next set of reports may well come after Earth has either passed the mark or is locked into exceeding it soon, several scientists, including report authors, told The Associated Press.
After 1.5 degrees “the risks are starting to pile on,” said report co-author Francis X. Johnson, a climate, land and policy scientist at the Stockholm Environment Institute. The report mentions “tipping points” around that temperature of species extinction, including coral reefs, irreversible melting of ice sheets and sea level rise of several meters.
“1.5 is a critical critical limit, particularly for small islands and mountain (communities) which depend on glaciers,” said Mukherji.
“The window is closing if emissions are not reduced as quickly as possible,” Johnson said in an interview. “Scientists are rather alarmed.”
Many scientists, including at least three co-authors, said hitting 1.5 degrees is inevitable.
“We are pretty much locked into 1.5,” said report co-author Malte Meinshausen, a climate scientist at the University of Melbourne in Australia. “There’s very little way we will be able to avoid crossing 1.5 C sometime in the 2030s ” but the big issue is whether the temperature keeps rising from there or stabilizes.
Guterres insisted “the 1.5-degree limit is achievable.” Science panel chief Hoesung Lee said so far the world is far off course.
If current consumption and production patterns continue, Lee said, “the global average 1.5 degrees temperature increase will be seen sometime in this decade.”
Scientists emphasize that the world or humanity won’t end suddenly if Earth passes the 1.5 degree mark. Mukherji said “it’s not as if it’s a cliff that we all fall off.” But an earlier IPCC report detailed how the harms — including even nastier extreme weather — are much worse beyond 1.5 degrees of warming.
“It is certainly prudent to be planning for a future that’s warmer than 1.5 degrees,” said IPCC report review editor Steven Rose, an economist at the Electric Power Research Institute in the United States.
If the world continues to use all the fossil fuel-powered infrastructure either existing now or proposed, Earth will warm at least 2 degrees Celsius since pre-industrial times, the report said.
Because the report is based on data from a few years ago, the calculations about fossil fuel projects already in the pipeline do not include the increase in coal and natural gas use after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. It comes a week after the Biden Administration in the United States approved the huge Willow oil-drilling project in Alaska, which could produce up to 180,000 barrels of oil a day.
Climate Change
Afghanistan needs international assistance to combat climate change: Baradar
Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, has called for Afghanistan to have fair access to international financial and technical assistance to combat climate change and reduce losses caused by natural disasters.
Speaking at a ceremony marking the International Day for Disaster Risk Reduction, Baradar said Afghanistan continues to suffer from the effects of climate change despite having no significant role in greenhouse gas emissions or global climate degradation.
He added that Afghanistan suffered severe social and economic losses last year due to earthquakes, seasonal floods and droughts. These disasters caused casualties and extensive financial losses, as well as damage to public infrastructure.
Emphasizing the need for climate justice, Baradar said: “It is inconsistent with the principles of global climate justice that we have no role in creating the problem, yet must bear its severe consequences and pay the price for the destruction caused by others.”
He urged the international community, the United Nations and climate-related organizations not to allow political considerations to interfere with efforts to combat climate change.
Baradar said climate change affects everyone and that protecting the global climate is a shared responsibility of all countries, without exception.
He stressed that fair access to international financial and technical assistance to reduce losses caused by natural disasters and climate change is Afghanistan’s right.
The Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs also called on the international community to provide practical assistance by supplying modern meteorological equipment, early warning systems, advanced rescue equipment and support to strengthen Afghanistan’s technical capacity.
He further said the Islamic Emirate had made significant efforts to construct buildings that meet standards for resilience against natural disasters, build standard retaining walls to control water flows, and protect and restore forests. He added that these efforts would continue.
Climate Change
Afghanistan on climate front line as Kabul faces groundwater warning
Participants also highlighted growing pressure on already limited water and other community resources following the return of large numbers of Afghan migrants.
Afghanistan is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change despite contributing less than 0.1 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, UN officials and experts said at a meeting on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York.
The meeting, titled “Afghanistan on the Front Line of Climate and Migration Pressures,” brought together UN representatives, experts and Afghan activists to discuss the country’s worsening water crisis, drought, floods, displacement and the impact of climate change.
Selwin Hart, Adviser to the UN Secretary-General on Climate Action, said Afghanistan faces severe climate vulnerability, environmental degradation, economic fragility and limited institutional capacity.
“Afghanistan accounts for less than 0.1 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, but faces severe climate vulnerability, environmental degradation, economic fragility and limited institutional capacity,” Hart said.
He said drought had severely affected Afghan communities for four consecutive years between 2021 and 2024, while flash floods this spring affected more than 73,000 people.
Participants also highlighted growing pressure on already limited water and other community resources following the return of large numbers of Afghan migrants.
Najibullah Sadid, a water resources and climate change expert, warned that Kabul could become the first capital in the world to face severe groundwater shortages by 2030.
Kabul’s groundwater resources have been declining amid growing demand, with the city’s population estimated at around seven million. Experts have warned that continued overuse and reduced water availability could put the capital under severe water stress in the coming years.
Switzerland’s representative to the United Nations said his country supports Afghanistan’s efforts to address climate change and water security and is working through various channels to strengthen capacity in these areas.
He said Switzerland supports initiatives including the UN Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy in Central Asia and the Global Network of Women in Water Diplomacy, as well as the network’s activities in Central Asia and Afghanistan.
Participants called for Afghanistan’s climate crisis to be addressed through greater international cooperation and responsibility. They also urged improved access for Afghanistan and local institutions to financial resources for climate adaptation and compensation for climate-related losses.
Climate Change
El Niño likely to intensify, may become strongest ever recorded, WMO says
A very strong El Niño can significantly shift rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide, and fuel extreme weather, like typhoons.
The El Niño weather phenomenon is set to intensify further into 2027 and could be the strongest ever, raising risks of extreme weather into next year, the World Meteorological Organization said on Thursday.
“If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began. So literally off the charts we have used for the past four decades,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo told a Geneva press conference, Reuters reported.
The U.N. weather agency said its forecasts showed a near 100% likelihood that El Niño will persist through February 2027, fuelled by exceptionally warm Pacific Ocean temperatures. This is the first time it has expressed such a degree of certainty, the WMO said.
A very strong El Niño can significantly shift rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide, and fuel extreme weather, like typhoons.
“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: The planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up,” said United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.
El Niño is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific caused by weakening trade winds. It occurs naturally every two to seven years and tends to last up to 12 months, causing intense rains and droughts across Latin America.
This year’s phenomenon has already had an impact on soft commodities in tropical areas, causing a severe food crisis across Central America’s Dry Corridor.
It is set to peak towards the end of this year, the WMO said in a statement. But its effects will continue into 2027 and are set to leave higher global temperatures next year in its wake, Saulo said.
Saulo said the WMO was stepping up preparedness and early warning efforts in preparation.
“WMO is committed to working closely with partners across the United Nations and humanitarian system to provide the climate intelligence and insights needed to support disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water resources,” she said.
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