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IEA sign deal for Russian oil products, gas and wheat

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The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) has signed a provisional deal with Russia to supply gasoline, diesel, gas and wheat to Afghanistan, Afghan Commerce and Industry Minister Haji Nooruddin Azizi told Reuters.

Azizi said his ministry was working to diversify its trading partners and that Russia had offered the IEA a discount to average global commodity prices.

The move, the first known major international economic deal struck by the IEA since they returned to power more than a year ago, could help to ease Afghanistan’s isolation that has effectively cut it off from the global banking system.

Azizi said the deal would involve Russia supplying around one million tonnes of gasoline, one million tonnes of diesel, 500,000 tonnes of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) and two million tonnes of wheat annually.

Russia’s energy and agriculture ministries did not immediately respond to requests for comment on the agreement. The office of Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, who is in charge of oil and gas, also did not immediately respond.

Azizi said the agreement would run for an unspecified trial period, after which both sides were expected to sign a longer term deal if they were content with the arrangement.

He declined to give details on pricing or payment methods, but said Russia had agreed to a discount to global markets on goods that would be delivered to Afghanistan by road and rail.

The deal was finalized after an Afghan technical team spent several weeks in discussions in Moscow, having stayed on after Azizi visited there last month.

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Mahirood Customs leads Iran’s exports to Afghanistan

More than 1.5 million tonnes of goods were exported to Afghanistan through the border crossing during this period.

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Mahirood Customs in South Khorasan province has become Iran’s main export gateway to Afghanistan, accounting for 36 percent of the country’s total exports to its eastern neighbor, Iranian officials said.

South Khorasan Governor Seyed Mohammadreza Hashemi told local media that Mahirood ranked first among Iran’s 71 active customs points during the first eight months of the current Iranian year.

More than 1.5 million tonnes of goods were exported to Afghanistan through the border crossing during this period.

Official customs figures show that Iran’s total exports to Afghanistan exceeded 4.26 million tonnes in the first eight months of the year, with Mahirood handling the largest share, Hashemi said.

He attributed the strong performance to South Khorasan’s strategic location, improved border infrastructure, effective planning, close cooperation with traders, and coordinated efforts by government agencies.

Hashemi said the expansion of exports via Mahirood Customs is contributing to economic growth, job creation, and stronger economic diplomacy for the province.

He added that continued support for exporters and streamlined customs procedures could further increase South Khorasan’s share of the Afghan market and other target markets in the future.

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Afghanistan, India discuss expanding investment opportunities

Officials said the proposed investments could contribute significantly to job creation, the transfer of technical skills, and the broader growth of Afghanistan’s economy.

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Abdul Mateen Saeed, Deputy Minister for Customs and Revenue at Afghanistan’s Ministry of Finance, has held talks with a delegation of Indian investors on potential investment opportunities in the country.

In a statement, the Ministry of Finance said Saeed highlighted the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’s recent measures to facilitate trade and investment, noting that additional incentives for traders and industrialists are also being developed.

He emphasized that bilateral relations between Afghanistan and India—particularly in trade and investment—are gradually strengthening.

The Indian investors expressed readiness to invest in several priority sectors, including the manufacture of medicines for human, agricultural and veterinary use, the introduction of modern technologies in agriculture and mining, and the implementation of capacity-building programs for Afghan professionals.

Officials said the proposed investments could contribute significantly to job creation, the transfer of technical skills, and the broader growth of Afghanistan’s economy.

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Afghan economy posts second year of growth despite deep structural challenges

The recent uptick has been driven in part by increased demand linked to the return of more than two million Afghans from Iran and Pakistan, boosting activity in the services and industrial sectors.

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Afghanistan’s economy is set to record a second consecutive year of growth, supported by low inflation and stronger domestic revenues, but deep structural challenges continue to weigh heavily on the country’s long-term outlook.

According to the World Bank’s latest Afghanistan Development Update, cited by Himalaya Diary, gross domestic product is projected to expand by 4.3 percent in 2025, following an estimated 2.5 percent growth in 2024.

The recent uptick has been driven in part by increased demand linked to the return of more than two million Afghans from Iran and Pakistan, boosting activity in the services and industrial sectors.

Agriculture has shown relative resilience, with a record irrigated wheat harvest achieved despite severe drought conditions. Mining and construction have also contributed to overall output growth, helping sustain economic momentum.

However, the recovery has not translated into improved living standards. Rapid population growth, estimated at 8.6 percent in 2025, is expected to push GDP per capita down by around 4 percent. Inflation remains low at about 2 percent — among the lowest in the region — reflecting stable food prices and a stronger currency, but also highlighting Afghanistan’s reliance on imports and exposure to external shocks.

On the fiscal front, domestic revenues have improved, with tax collection projected to reach 17.1 percent of GDP in 2025 as enforcement measures tighten. At the same time, declining foreign grants are shrinking the overall fiscal space, increasing reliance on trade taxes and continued donor support.

The financial sector remains under strain. Banks face regulatory uncertainty, rising non-performing loans and weak credit growth, while liquidity pressures persist as more cash circulates outside the formal system. Limited access to banking services and the transition to Islamic finance have further constrained financial inclusion.

Labour market pressures are also mounting. Nearly one in four young Afghans is unemployed, and restrictions on women’s education and economic participation are undermining human capital and long-term growth prospects. These challenges are compounded by one of the largest return migration waves in recent years, with an estimated 4 to 4.7 million people returning between late 2023 and mid-2025, intensifying pressure on jobs and public services, particularly in urban and border areas.

The World Bank warns that sustaining the recovery will require reforms to attract private investment, strengthen the financial system and diversify exports. Improved governance, a more supportive business environment and stronger engagement with international partners will be critical if Afghanistan is to reduce its reliance on humanitarian aid and move toward more resilient and inclusive growth.

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