Regional
Iran faces U.S. without Plan B as nuclear red lines collide
On Tuesday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rejected U.S. demands to halt uranium enrichment as “excessive and outrageous”, warning that the talks are unlikely to yield results.
While rising U.S.-Iran tensions over Tehran’s uranium enrichment jeopardize nuclear talks, three Iranian sources said on Tuesday that the clerical leadership lacks a clear fallback plan if efforts to resolve a decades-long dispute collapse, Reuters reported.
With negotiations faltering over clashing red lines, Iran may turn to China and Russia as a “Plan B”, the sources said, but with Beijing’s trade war with Washington and Moscow distracted with its war in Ukraine, Tehran’s backup plan appears shaky.
“The plan B is to continue the strategy before the start of talks. Iran will avoid escalating tensions, it is ready to defend itself,” a senior Iranian official said.
“The strategy also includes strengthening ties with allies like Russia and China.”
On Tuesday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rejected U.S. demands to halt uranium enrichment as “excessive and outrageous”, warning that the talks are unlikely to yield results.
After four rounds of talks aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear programme in return for sanctions relief, multiple stumbling blocks remain. Tehran refuses to ship all of its highly enriched uranium stockpile abroad or engage in discussions over its ballistic missile programme, two of the Iranian officials and a European diplomat said.
The lack of trust on both sides and President Donald Trump’s decision to pull out of a 2015 accord with world powers has also raised the importance for Iran of getting guarantees that Washington will not renege on a future accord, read the report.
Compounding Tehran’s challenges, Iran’s clerical establishment is grappling with mounting crises – energy and water shortages, a plummeting currency, military losses among regional allies, and rising fears of an Israeli attack on its nuclear sites – all exacerbated by Trump’s hardline policies.
With Trump’s speedy revival of a “maximum pressure” campaign on Tehran since February, including tightened sanctions and military threats, the sources said, Iran’s leadership “has no better option” than a new deal to avert economic chaos at home that could threaten its rule.
Nationwide protests over social repression and economic hardship in recent years, met with harsh crackdowns, have exposed the Islamic Republic’s vulnerability to public anger and triggered sets of Western human rights sanctions.
“Without lifting sanctions to enable free oil sales and access to funds, Iran’s economy cannot recover,” said the second official, who like others asked not to be identified due to sensitivity of matter.
Iran’s foreign ministry was not immediately available for comment.
Wendy Sherman, former U.S. Undersecretary for Political Affairs who led the U.S. negotiating team that reached the 2015 accord between Tehran and six world powers, said it was impossible to convince Tehran to “dismantle its nuclear programme and give up their enrichment even though that would be ideal”.
“So that means they will come to an impasse, and that we will face the potential for war, which I don’t think, quite frankly, President Trump looks forward to because he has campaigned as a peace president,” she said.
Even if enrichment disputes narrow, lifting sanctions remains fraught. The U.S. favours phasing out nuclear-related sanctions, while Tehran demands immediate removal of all restrictions.
Dozens of Iranian institutions vital to Iran’s economy, including its central bank and national oil company, have been sanctioned since 2018 for “supporting terrorism or weapons proliferation”.
When asked about Iran’s options if talks fail, Sherman said Tehran would likely “continue to circumvent sanctions and sell oil, largely to China, perhaps India and others”.
China, Iran’s primary oil buyer despite sanctions, has helped stave off economic collapse, but Trump’s intensified pressure on Chinese trade entities and tankers threatens these exports.
Analysts warn that China and Russia’s support has limits. China insists on steep discounts for Iranian oil and may push for lower prices as global oil demand weakens.
If talks collapse – a scenario both Tehran and Washington hope to avoid – neither Beijing nor Moscow can shield Iran from unilateral U.S. and EU sanctions, Reuters reported.
France, Britain and Germany, though not part of the U.S.-Iran talks, have warned they would reimpose U.N. sanctions if no deal emerged quickly.
Under the 2015 nuclear pact’s U.N. resolution, the E3 have until October 18 to trigger the so-called “snapback mechanism” before the resolution expires.
According to diplomats and a document seen by Reuters, the E3 countries may do this by August if no substantial deal can be found by then.
Diplomats warn that getting a deal before then would mean, in the best case scenario, an initial political framework like in 2013 whereby both sides offer some immediate concrete concessions giving time for a more detailed negotiation.
“There is no reason to think it will take less time than the 18 months in 2013 especially when the parameters and the geopolitical situation is more complicated now,” a senior European official said.
Regional
Fourteen Pakistani police officers killed in KP car bombing and shootout
The death toll from a suicide attack on a security post in northwest Pakistan rose to 14 police officers, authorities said early Sunday.
A suicide bomber and several gunmen detonated an explosives-laden vehicle near the post in Bannu, a district in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, late Saturday, said senior police official Sajjad Khan. The attack triggered an intense shootout, and some officers were killed in the exchange, while others died later after the building collapsed, the Associated Press reported.
Rescuers conducted an hourslong search operation using heavy machinery to retrieve bodies from under the rubble, Khan said, adding that three police officers were wounded in the attack.
Security forces have also launched an operation to track down the perpetrators.
A newly formed militant group, Ittehad-ul-Mujahideen Pakistan, claimed responsibility for the attack.
Regional
UAE countering Iranian air attack after Trump says ceasefire still in effect
U.S. ally the United Arab Emirates said its air defences were engaging missile and drone threats from Iran early on Friday in a further test of the shaky, month-long ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran.
There were few details immediately available about the latest attack on the UAE, which came a day after the U.S. and Iran exchanged fire around the Strait of Hormuz, and as Washington awaited a response from Tehran to its proposal to end the conflict. Iran has often targeted the UAE and other Gulf countries that host U.S. bases since the war began on February 28, Reuters reported.
President Donald Trump said on Thursday three U.S. Navy destroyers were attacked as they moved through the strait, a conduit for around a fifth of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas flows that Iran has all but closed since the conflict started.
“Three World Class American Destroyers just transited, very successfully, out of the Strait of Hormuz, under fire. There was no damage done to the three Destroyers, but great damage done to the Iranian attackers,” Trump wrote on Truth Social.
Trump later told reporters the ceasefire was still in effect and sought to play down the exchange.
“They trifled with us today. We blew them away,” Trump said in Washington.
Iran’s top joint military command accused the U.S. of violating the ceasefire by targeting an Iranian oil tanker and another ship, and of carrying out air attacks on civilian areas on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz and the nearby coastal areas of Bandar Khamir and Sirik on the mainland. The military said it responded by attacking U.S. military vessels east of the strait and south of the port of Chabahar.
A spokesperson for Iran’s Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters said the Iranian strikes inflicted “significant damage,” but U.S. Central Command said none of its assets were hit.
Iran’s Press TV later reported that, following several hours of fire, “the situation on Iranian islands and coastal cities by the Strait of Hormuz is back to normal now.”
The two sides have occasionally exchanged gunfire since the ceasefire took effect on April 7, with Iran hitting targets in Gulf countries including the UAE.
Oil prices rose in early trade in Asia on Friday, with Brent crude jumping above $100 a barrel after the latest clashes between the U.S. and Iran.
TRUMP URGES NEGOTIATED END TO WAR
Trump suggested ongoing talks with Tehran remained on track despite Thursday’s hostilities, telling reporters, “We’re negotiating with the Iranians.”
Before the latest strikes, the U.S. had floated a proposal that would formally end the conflict but did not address key U.S. demands that Iran suspend its nuclear work and reopen the strait.
Tehran said it had not yet reached a decision on the emerging plan.
Even so, Trump said Tehran had acknowledged his demand that Iran could never get a nuclear weapon, a prohibition he said was spelled out in the U.S. proposal.
“There’s zero chance. And they know that, and they’ve agreed to that. Let’s see if they are willing to sign it,” Trump said.
Asked when any deal might be reached, Trump said, “It might not happen, but it could happen any day. I believe they want to deal more than I do.”
The war has tested Trump’s relationship with his U.S. base of supporters, after he had campaigned against involving the United States in foreign wars and promised to bring down fuel prices.
Average U.S. gasoline prices have climbed more than 40% since late February, rising by about $1.20 a gallon to more than $4, according to data from the American Automobile Association, as disruptions to oil shipments through the Strait of Hormuz pushed crude oil prices higher.
Regional
US and Iran closing in on one-page memo to end war, Axios reports
The U.S. State Department and White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
The White House believes it is getting close to an agreement with Iran on a one-page memorandum of understanding to end the war and set a framework for more detailed nuclear negotiations, Axios reported on Wednesday, citing two U.S. officials and two other sources briefed on the issue.
The U.S. expects Iranian responses on several key points in the next 48 hours, according to the report which cautioned that nothing has been agreed yet but said this was the closest the parties had been to an agreement since the war began, Reuters reported.
Among other provisions, the deal would involve Iran committing to a moratorium on nuclear enrichment, the U.S. agreeing to lift its sanctions and release billions in frozen Iranian funds, and both sides lifting restrictions around transit through the Strait of Hormuz, Axios said.
The one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding is being negotiated between U.S. envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and several Iranian officials, both directly and through mediators, the report said.
In its current form, the memorandum would declare an end to the war in the region and the start of a 30-day period of negotiations on a detailed agreement to open the strait, limit Iran’s nuclear programme and lift U.S. sanctions, Axios added.
Iran’s restrictions on shipping through the strait and the U.S. naval blockade would be gradually lifted during that 30-day period, Axios said, citing one U.S. official who added that if the negotiations collapse, U.S. forces would be able to restore the blockade or resume military action, read the report.
Iran said earlier on Wednesday it would accept a peace deal only if it was “fair”, after U.S. President Donald Trump paused a three-day-old naval mission tasked with reopening the Strait of Hormuz that had shaken the war’s month-old ceasefire.
Reuters could not immediately verify the report. The U.S. State Department and White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
U.S. stock index futures extended gains following the Axios report.
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