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Iran faces U.S. without Plan B as nuclear red lines collide

On Tuesday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rejected U.S. demands to halt uranium enrichment as “excessive and outrageous”, warning that the talks are unlikely to yield results.

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While rising U.S.-Iran tensions over Tehran’s uranium enrichment jeopardize nuclear talks, three Iranian sources said on Tuesday that the clerical leadership lacks a clear fallback plan if efforts to resolve a decades-long dispute collapse, Reuters reported.

With negotiations faltering over clashing red lines, Iran may turn to China and Russia as a “Plan B”, the sources said, but with Beijing’s trade war with Washington and Moscow distracted with its war in Ukraine, Tehran’s backup plan appears shaky.

“The plan B is to continue the strategy before the start of talks. Iran will avoid escalating tensions, it is ready to defend itself,” a senior Iranian official said.

“The strategy also includes strengthening ties with allies like Russia and China.”

On Tuesday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rejected U.S. demands to halt uranium enrichment as “excessive and outrageous”, warning that the talks are unlikely to yield results.

After four rounds of talks aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear programme in return for sanctions relief, multiple stumbling blocks remain. Tehran refuses to ship all of its highly enriched uranium stockpile abroad or engage in discussions over its ballistic missile programme, two of the Iranian officials and a European diplomat said.

The lack of trust on both sides and President Donald Trump’s decision to pull out of a 2015 accord with world powers has also raised the importance for Iran of getting guarantees that Washington will not renege on a future accord, read the report.

Compounding Tehran’s challenges, Iran’s clerical establishment is grappling with mounting crises – energy and water shortages, a plummeting currency, military losses among regional allies, and rising fears of an Israeli attack on its nuclear sites – all exacerbated by Trump’s hardline policies.

With Trump’s speedy revival of a “maximum pressure” campaign on Tehran since February, including tightened sanctions and military threats, the sources said, Iran’s leadership “has no better option” than a new deal to avert economic chaos at home that could threaten its rule.

Nationwide protests over social repression and economic hardship in recent years, met with harsh crackdowns, have exposed the Islamic Republic’s vulnerability to public anger and triggered sets of Western human rights sanctions.

“Without lifting sanctions to enable free oil sales and access to funds, Iran’s economy cannot recover,” said the second official, who like others asked not to be identified due to sensitivity of matter.

Iran’s foreign ministry was not immediately available for comment.

Wendy Sherman, former U.S. Undersecretary for Political Affairs who led the U.S. negotiating team that reached the 2015 accord between Tehran and six world powers, said it was impossible to convince Tehran to “dismantle its nuclear programme and give up their enrichment even though that would be ideal”.

“So that means they will come to an impasse, and that we will face the potential for war, which I don’t think, quite frankly, President Trump looks forward to because he has campaigned as a peace president,” she said.

Even if enrichment disputes narrow, lifting sanctions remains fraught. The U.S. favours phasing out nuclear-related sanctions, while Tehran demands immediate removal of all restrictions.

Dozens of Iranian institutions vital to Iran’s economy, including its central bank and national oil company, have been sanctioned since 2018 for “supporting terrorism or weapons proliferation”.

When asked about Iran’s options if talks fail, Sherman said Tehran would likely “continue to circumvent sanctions and sell oil, largely to China, perhaps India and others”.

China, Iran’s primary oil buyer despite sanctions, has helped stave off economic collapse, but Trump’s intensified pressure on Chinese trade entities and tankers threatens these exports.

Analysts warn that China and Russia’s support has limits. China insists on steep discounts for Iranian oil and may push for lower prices as global oil demand weakens.

If talks collapse – a scenario both Tehran and Washington hope to avoid – neither Beijing nor Moscow can shield Iran from unilateral U.S. and EU sanctions, Reuters reported.

France, Britain and Germany, though not part of the U.S.-Iran talks, have warned they would reimpose U.N. sanctions if no deal emerged quickly.

Under the 2015 nuclear pact’s U.N. resolution, the E3 have until October 18 to trigger the so-called “snapback mechanism” before the resolution expires.

According to diplomats and a document seen by Reuters, the E3 countries may do this by August if no substantial deal can be found by then.

Diplomats warn that getting a deal before then would mean, in the best case scenario, an initial political framework like in 2013 whereby both sides offer some immediate concrete concessions giving time for a more detailed negotiation.

“There is no reason to think it will take less time than the 18 months in 2013 especially when the parameters and the geopolitical situation is more complicated now,” a senior European official said.

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Iran ties Hormuz reopening to US concessions on several demands

Araqchi said reopening ​the strait would depend in part on the U.S. paying compensation for damage it caused in widespread attacks on Iran.

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Iran said it was nearing a final pact with Oman defining new shipping lanes between them through the Strait of Hormuz ​but repeated that the U.S. must meet other conditions, including compensation and an end to sanctions and military threats, before the strategic waterway is reopened.

A U.S. official told ‌Reuters on Friday that Iran and Oman were close to a deal that could pave the way for restoring safe passage through the strait, a major conduit for oil and gas shipping before Iran blocked Hormuz in response to U.S. and Israeli attacks on Tehran that began in late February, Reuters reported.

Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said on Sunday an agreement with Oman on the strait was in its “final stages” but reiterated comments made on Saturday that Tehran would not reopen the ​channel unless the U.S. met certain demands made by Tehran.

The deal with Iran would set out the new shipping lanes to be used once the U.S. fulfils those conditions ​and the strait is reopened, Iran’s Mehr news agency quoted him as saying.

Iran and the U.S. are not engaged in direct talks, and Tehran will ⁠not start them as long as Washington breaches an interim deal signed in June, Araqchi said, adding that messages were being exchanged through intermediaries.

U.S. President Donald Trump said in an interview with ​Axios that the U.S. was “low-keying” it with Iran. “We are only semi-negotiating with them. We are just watching Iran with its huge inflation and the fact they have no money.”

CONDITIONS INCLUDE COMPENSATION

Araqchi said reopening ​the strait would depend in part on the U.S. paying compensation for damage it caused in widespread attacks on Iran.

The secretary of Iran’s top national security body, Mohammad Baqer Zolqadr, also listed ending further U.S. threats against Iran; halting aggression toward Iran and its Lebanese, Palestinian, Yemeni and Iraqi allies; removing a U.S. naval blockade in the Gulf; lifting sanctions on Iran; and releasing frozen Iranian assets.

The United States and Israel launched air strikes on Iran more than ​five months ago. Trump has said the attacks were aimed at keeping the Islamic Republic from developing nuclear weapons and degrading its ability to threaten the region.

Washington and Tehran agreed to a ​ceasefire in June, but the U.S. reimposed a blockade on Iranian shipping in the Gulf in July, a move that Tehran said violated the truce, which by then had already broken down.

“Once the deal is announced to ‌restore commercial shipping ⁠without impediments, the United States will lift the blockade of Iranian ports,” the U.S. official told Reuters on condition of anonymity.

U.S. actions would be tied to Iran’s implementation of its commitments, the official said.

The U.S. comments indicated delicate sequencing toward a deal that sources had told Reuters appeared to be set to give Tehran control over vessel traffic entering the Gulf through the strait, which shippers have said was not easily workable.

The United Arab Emirates said on Saturday that Iran had attacked a ship affiliated with its state oil company. There was no immediate comment from Iran, whose Revolutionary Guard Corps previously has ​attacked ships that it said tried to cross the ​strait without Iranian permission.

HOUTHI ATTACKS

Iranian strikes on ⁠Strait of Hormuz shipping have been coupled with increased attacks by its Yemen-based allies, the Houthi rebels, who have targeted ships at another oil chokepoint on the other side of the Arabian Peninsula between the Red Sea and Gulf of Aden.

The Houthis also declared a naval blockade against Saudi ​Arabia in the Red Sea last month in response to what they said was a Saudi siege on them in Yemen, an allegation denied ​by Riyadh, which backs ⁠Yemen’s internationally recognised government.

The Yemeni rebel group said they had attacked Saudi Aramco’s Jazan refinery on Sunday, two days after the kingdom signed a defence pact with Sunni Muslim allies Turkey and Pakistan in response to growing regional instability from the U.S.-Israeli war on Shi’ite Iran.

The Saudi energy ministry said a fire had broken out at the refinery but was later extinguished with no injuries, without giving a cause.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan ⁠said the ​new alliance was not directed against Iran or any other country, but rather served as a general pledge to support ​security.

Fighting has escalated between the Houthis and government forces in Yemen, with the Yemeni military on Monday saying seven people including military personnel and civilians were killed in a Houthi attack on the Red Sea port city of Mocha.

Air defences ​intercepted and shot down 11 Houthi drones that participated in the attack, the military said.

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Turkey, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia defence pact technically same as NATO’s Article 5, Turkish minister says

Fidan also said Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan wanted to see the alliance expand, and that Egypt was a potential candidate to ​join, among others.

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A defence pact signed between Turkey, Pakistan and Saudi Arabia is ‌technically the same as NATO’s Article 5 mutual defence agreement, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said on Saturday, adding the accord was not targeting Iran.

Fidan also said Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan wanted to see the alliance expand, and that Egypt was a potential candidate to ​join, among others.

The regional powers signed the “Mecca Joint Defence Agreement” on Friday, wedding Sunni Muslim U.S. allies alarmed ​at a regional conflagration that has brought Iranian missile fire onto Gulf oil exporters.

In a ⁠joint statement, they said the accord intended to strengthen collective deterrence against any act of aggression and stipulates ​that an armed attack against any of the three would be regarded as an attack on all.

Speaking to the ​state-run Anadolu news agency, Fidan said the new alliance was not directed against Iran or any other country, but rather served as a general pledge to support the three allies’ security.

He added that the allies would decide through consultations what degree, form, and format of ​support they would ask for in the event of an attack, but that no country would be considered a ​threat as long as a member state is not attacked.

Turkey, which has NATO’s second-largest army, has said the pact was open ‌to ⁠expansion to other regional countries and did not seek to replace any existing alliances.

“NATO is a giant military alliance where there are 32 countries. We have started here as three countries and we have to take very humble but concrete steps,” he said, adding efforts to finalise the pact had been underway for two years and eight months.

He ​added that a committee ​of ministers similar to that ⁠within NATO would be formed as part of the alliance, as well as a general secretariat based in Saudi Arabia, but that operational details would be set at ​the first committee meeting.

“Our president’s vision is that we don’t remain limited to three ​countries, that ⁠we grow and bring together all (regional) countries under this roof,” he said, adding Egypt could potentially join the pact once certain technical matters are resolved.

In recent months, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Egypt formed a group to address regional issues, ⁠namely the ​war on Iran. Turkey has said the group – dubbed the R4 – ​aims to solidify its partnership through concrete mechanisms.

Fidan also said Turkey should be involved in an international coalition to protect shipping in the Red Sea ​from Houthi attacks because shipping safety concerned Ankara’s interests.

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Goods transporters to go on strike from Saturday after talks with Pakistan govt fail

However, the minister has assured the transporters that he would discuss their demands, and the next round of talks would be held on Monday morning.

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Goods transporters and oil tanker operators began suspending their services on Friday night after negotiations with the Pakistani government failed, ahead of their nationwide wheel-jam strike scheduled for Saturday.

All Pakistan Goods Transport Itehad spokesman and All Pakistan Goods Transport Owners Association President Mohammad Owais Chaudhry Advocate told Dawn that talks with Federal Minister for Communications Aleem Khan and other government officials had failed.

He said the negotiations ended without a breakthrough, prompting transporters, including edible oil tanker operators, petroleum oil tanker operators, truckers, trailer operators and other intercity transporters, to proceed with their previously announced strike.

“We have informed the government side about the problems we are facing and our concerns,” Chaudhry said, adding that the strike would continue until their demands were accepted.

However, the minister has assured the transporters that he would discuss their demands, and the next round of talks would be held on Monday morning.

The unified body of transporters had already announced that it would begin its wheel-jam strike from August 8, and warned that it would not be a token strike but an indefinite one.

“Commercial goods carriers across the country have already been taken off the roads and will remain stationed at designated places during the protest period,” Chaudhry said.

Among the key demands of the transporters is the uniform enforcement of axle-load limits across the country and permission for 10-wheel vehicles to carry up to 35 tonnes.

They have also demanded reductions in diesel prices and toll taxes, besides seeking relief in withholding tax to ease the financial burden on the transport sector.

The transporters have also called for the withdrawal of customs provisions that, according to the association, allow authorities to confiscate vehicles carrying goods found to be in violation of customs laws.

Other demands include the withdrawal of the Punjab Highway Patrol’s powers to issue challans to commercial vehicles, an end to what the association described as unnecessary challans and excessive fines on motorways and highways, and measures to facilitate the issuance of heavy transport vehicle licences to drivers.

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