Regional
Iran faces U.S. without Plan B as nuclear red lines collide
On Tuesday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rejected U.S. demands to halt uranium enrichment as “excessive and outrageous”, warning that the talks are unlikely to yield results.

While rising U.S.-Iran tensions over Tehran’s uranium enrichment jeopardize nuclear talks, three Iranian sources said on Tuesday that the clerical leadership lacks a clear fallback plan if efforts to resolve a decades-long dispute collapse, Reuters reported.
With negotiations faltering over clashing red lines, Iran may turn to China and Russia as a “Plan B”, the sources said, but with Beijing’s trade war with Washington and Moscow distracted with its war in Ukraine, Tehran’s backup plan appears shaky.
“The plan B is to continue the strategy before the start of talks. Iran will avoid escalating tensions, it is ready to defend itself,” a senior Iranian official said.
“The strategy also includes strengthening ties with allies like Russia and China.”
On Tuesday, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei rejected U.S. demands to halt uranium enrichment as “excessive and outrageous”, warning that the talks are unlikely to yield results.
After four rounds of talks aimed at curbing Iran’s nuclear programme in return for sanctions relief, multiple stumbling blocks remain. Tehran refuses to ship all of its highly enriched uranium stockpile abroad or engage in discussions over its ballistic missile programme, two of the Iranian officials and a European diplomat said.
The lack of trust on both sides and President Donald Trump’s decision to pull out of a 2015 accord with world powers has also raised the importance for Iran of getting guarantees that Washington will not renege on a future accord, read the report.
Compounding Tehran’s challenges, Iran’s clerical establishment is grappling with mounting crises – energy and water shortages, a plummeting currency, military losses among regional allies, and rising fears of an Israeli attack on its nuclear sites – all exacerbated by Trump’s hardline policies.
With Trump’s speedy revival of a “maximum pressure” campaign on Tehran since February, including tightened sanctions and military threats, the sources said, Iran’s leadership “has no better option” than a new deal to avert economic chaos at home that could threaten its rule.
Nationwide protests over social repression and economic hardship in recent years, met with harsh crackdowns, have exposed the Islamic Republic’s vulnerability to public anger and triggered sets of Western human rights sanctions.
“Without lifting sanctions to enable free oil sales and access to funds, Iran’s economy cannot recover,” said the second official, who like others asked not to be identified due to sensitivity of matter.
Iran’s foreign ministry was not immediately available for comment.
Wendy Sherman, former U.S. Undersecretary for Political Affairs who led the U.S. negotiating team that reached the 2015 accord between Tehran and six world powers, said it was impossible to convince Tehran to “dismantle its nuclear programme and give up their enrichment even though that would be ideal”.
“So that means they will come to an impasse, and that we will face the potential for war, which I don’t think, quite frankly, President Trump looks forward to because he has campaigned as a peace president,” she said.
Even if enrichment disputes narrow, lifting sanctions remains fraught. The U.S. favours phasing out nuclear-related sanctions, while Tehran demands immediate removal of all restrictions.
Dozens of Iranian institutions vital to Iran’s economy, including its central bank and national oil company, have been sanctioned since 2018 for “supporting terrorism or weapons proliferation”.
When asked about Iran’s options if talks fail, Sherman said Tehran would likely “continue to circumvent sanctions and sell oil, largely to China, perhaps India and others”.
China, Iran’s primary oil buyer despite sanctions, has helped stave off economic collapse, but Trump’s intensified pressure on Chinese trade entities and tankers threatens these exports.
Analysts warn that China and Russia’s support has limits. China insists on steep discounts for Iranian oil and may push for lower prices as global oil demand weakens.
If talks collapse – a scenario both Tehran and Washington hope to avoid – neither Beijing nor Moscow can shield Iran from unilateral U.S. and EU sanctions, Reuters reported.
France, Britain and Germany, though not part of the U.S.-Iran talks, have warned they would reimpose U.N. sanctions if no deal emerged quickly.
Under the 2015 nuclear pact’s U.N. resolution, the E3 have until October 18 to trigger the so-called “snapback mechanism” before the resolution expires.
According to diplomats and a document seen by Reuters, the E3 countries may do this by August if no substantial deal can be found by then.
Diplomats warn that getting a deal before then would mean, in the best case scenario, an initial political framework like in 2013 whereby both sides offer some immediate concrete concessions giving time for a more detailed negotiation.
“There is no reason to think it will take less time than the 18 months in 2013 especially when the parameters and the geopolitical situation is more complicated now,” a senior European official said.
Regional
Iran’s Khamenei rejects Trump’s call for unconditional surrender

Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said in a statement read by a television presenter on Wednesday that his country will not accept U.S. President Donald Trump’s call for an unconditional surrender.
In his first remarks since Friday, when he delivered a speech broadcast on state media after Israel began bombarding Iran, Khamenei said peace or war could not be imposed on the Islamic Republic, Reuters reported.
“Intelligent people who know Iran, the Iranian nation, and its history will never speak to this nation in threatening language because the Iranian nation will not surrender,” he said.
“The Americans should know that any U.S. military intervention will undoubtedly be accompanied by irreparable damage.”
Thousands of people were fleeing Tehran on Wednesday after Israeli warplanes bombed the city overnight, and a source said Trump was considering options that include joining Israel in attacking Iranian nuclear sites, Reuters reported.
Israel’s military said 50 Israeli jets had struck around 20 targets in Tehran overnight, including sites producing raw materials, components and manufacturing systems for missiles.
A source familiar with internal discussions said Trump and his team were considering a number of options, which included joining Israel in strikes against Iranian nuclear sites.
Iran had conveyed to Washington that it would retaliate against the United States for any direct participation, its ambassador to the United Nations in Geneva, Ali Bahreini, said. He said he already saw the U.S. as “complicit in what Israel is doing”.
Regional
Israel strikes Iran nuclear site; Tehran responds with hypersonic missiles

Israel confirmed it targeted a nuclear centrifuge facility near Tehran on Wednesday as its air campaign against Iran entered a sixth day. In response, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard said it fired hypersonic Fattah-1 missiles toward Tel Aviv, escalating the region’s most serious military exchange in years.
The Israeli military reported that over 50 fighter jets struck multiple targets near Tehran overnight, including weapons factories and a key centrifuge production site.
Centrifuges are essential for uranium enrichment, a core component of Iran’s disputed nuclear program.
Iran responded by launching missiles and a swarm of drones, claiming damage in Israel. While Israeli air defense systems intercepted most of the threats, some damage and injuries were reported.
Israel also said one of its own drones was downed over Iranian territory.
In Washington, President Donald Trump ruled out immediate intervention but demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender.” He claimed the U.S. could easily target Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, whom he called an “easy target,” but said such an action was not imminent.
Khamenei responded defiantly, promising “no mercy” for Israel’s leadership and vowing continued retaliation.
Meanwhile, hundreds of foreign nationals have fled Iran through Armenia and Azerbaijan. Inside Tehran, long queues formed at bakeries and gas stations amid fears of prolonged conflict.
The UN’s nuclear watchdog confirmed strikes on enrichment facilities at Natanz, a core site of Iran’s nuclear program. Negotiations on Iran’s nuclear deal have stalled since the conflict began, with Tehran refusing talks under fire.
Civilian casualties continue to mount. Iran reports 224 deaths, including scientists and military personnel, while Israel says at least 24 have been killed on its side.
The fighting has drawn global concern, with European leaders urging restraint and warning that further escalation risks destabilizing the entire Middle East.
Regional
Iran ‘prepares’ missiles to target US forces in Middle East
US military analysts say Tehran’s preparations are intended to serve both as a deterrent and a retaliatory option if the US intervenes militarily in support of Israel,

Iran is reportedly preparing its missile forces to launch strikes against American military targets across the Middle East, should the United States enter the growing conflict between Israel and Iran.
Citing US intelligence officials, The New York Times reported that based on classified assessments, corroborated by multiple defense officials, Iran has moved key missile assets into operational positions and activated allied militia networks across the region.
This is seen as part of a broader strategy to deter direct US involvement.
According to the New York Times, Iran has positioned medium- and long-range ballistic missiles, as well as cruise missile platforms, near launch-ready sites inside its territory and in parts of Iraq and Syria under the control of Iranian-aligned militias.
Some of these systems have ranges exceeding 1,000 kilometers and are capable of reaching major US installations in the region within minutes.
Iran is also reportedly coordinating with Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthi forces in Yemen, and Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) in Iraq — groups with a proven track record of launching drone and rocket attacks against US interests.
US military analysts say Tehran’s preparations are intended to serve both as a deterrent and a retaliatory option if the US intervenes militarily in support of Israel, particularly in the event of Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities.
U.S. Bases Potentially at Risk
ArianaNews.com meanwhile looked at what US bases and installations are within range of Iranian missiles or proxy forces. The results are as follows:
Al Udeid Air Base – Qatar
Significance: Regional command hub for U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) operations.
Assets: Hosts U.S. Air Force bombers, surveillance aircraft, and refueling tankers.
Risk: High, due to its strategic role and location just 200 miles from Iran.
Al Dhafra Air Base – United Arab Emirates
Significance: Important forward operating location for U.S. fighter jets and surveillance aircraft.
Assets: F-35s, Global Hawk drones.
Risk: High, as it’s within reach of both Iranian missiles and Houthi drones from Yemen.
Camp Arifjan & Ali Al Salem Air Base – Kuwait
Significance: Major logistical hub and troop staging ground.
Assets: Ground forces, Patriot missile defense systems.
Risk: Moderate to high; within range of medium-range missiles and vulnerable to militia activity in Iraq.
Ain al-Asad Air Base – Iraq
Significance: Largest U.S. base in Iraq; has previously been targeted by Iranian ballistic missiles (2020).
Risk: Very high, due to its proximity and exposed position in western Iraq.
Erbil Air Base – Iraqi Kurdistan
Significance: Special operations and intelligence base.
Risk: High; has faced repeated drone attacks by Iran-backed groups in recent years.
Al-Tanf Garrison – Syria
Significance: U.S. special forces base near Syria’s border with Iraq and Jordan.
Risk: High, due to encirclement by Iran-backed militias and limited support infrastructure.
Naval Assets in the Red Sea, Gulf of Oman, and Arabian Gulf
Significance: Includes U.S. 5th Fleet in Bahrain and carrier groups in regional waters.
Risk: Subject to missile or naval mine attacks; the Strait of Hormuz remains a flashpoint.
Strategic Context
Tehran’s missile deployments are viewed as part of its “deterrence by escalation” doctrine, signaling that it is prepared to expand the war beyond Israeli territory if attacked. The Pentagon has responded by increasing force protection at regional bases and deploying additional Patriot and THAAD missile defense batteries.
A senior US official, speaking anonymously, said: “We are closely monitoring Iran’s military posture. Any move against our personnel will be met with an immediate and proportional response.”
Meanwhile, diplomatic backchannels remain active, with efforts underway through European and Gulf intermediaries to de-escalate tensions before open war breaks out across the region.
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