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Pakistan’s citrus export crisis deepens amid ongoing Afghanistan trade route closure

Afghanistan, which absorbs around 60% of Pakistan’s citrus exports, has remained closed to trade since mid-October.

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Pakistan’s citrus sector is facing a worsening export crisis as the closure of the Afghanistan crossing continues to block access to its largest market.

Despite the start of the 2025 citrus season, exports are set to fall further from an already steep decline — dropping from $211 million in fiscal year 2021 to just $92.5 million in fiscal year 2025.

Afghanistan, which absorbs around 60% of Pakistan’s citrus exports, has remained closed to trade since mid-October.

This year alone, Pakistan shipped 153,683 tonnes of citrus to Afghanistan, while exports through the Afghan transit route also supply Russia, Kazakhstan, and Uzbekistan. With that corridor shut, exporters warn that the bulk of Pakistan’s kinnow harvest could go unsold.

A temporary policy exemption now allows citrus shipments to transit through Iran, but exporters say volumes to Central Asia and Russia cannot compensate for the loss of the Afghan market.

The crisis, however, goes deeper than the current crossing closure situation. Pakistan’s citrus industry continues to suffer from long-standing structural challenges — including reliance on the outdated, seeded kinnow variety that makes up over 90% of exports.

Climate change, rising pest pressure, shrinking yields, and declining A-grade fruit quality have all eroded competitiveness. Yields have fallen to about six tonnes per acre, and nearly half of kinnow processing units have closed.

Global competitors such as Egypt, China, Spain, Morocco, and Brazil have overtaken Pakistan by introducing new seedless, high-yielding varieties with longer harvest windows. As profits shrink, farmers are abandoning citrus orchards: the cultivated area has dropped 16% in the past five years.

Experts say Pakistan must urgently invest in developing seedless, climate-resilient varieties and strengthen existing research centres. At the same time, trade officials need to diversify export destinations by securing new sanitary and phytosanitary agreements to reduce dependence on a single market.

Without structural reforms and diversified access, Pakistan’s signature fruit risks losing its place in global markets — and its farmers risk losing their livelihoods.

Business

Trump says nations doing business with Iran face 25% tariff on US trade

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President Donald Trump said on Monday any country that does business with Iran will face a tariff rate of 25% on any trade with the U.S., as Washington weighs a response to the situation in Iran which is seeing its biggest anti-government protests in years.

“Effective immediately, any Country doing business with the Islamic Republic of Iran will pay a Tariff of 25% on any and all business being done with the United States of America,” Trump said in a post on Truth Social, Reuters reported.

Tariffs are paid by U.S. importers of goods from those countries. Iran, a member of the OPEC oil producing group, has been heavily sanctioned by Washington for years. It exports much of its oil to China, with Turkey, Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and India among its other top trading partners.

“This Order is final and conclusive,” Trump said without providing any further detail.

There was no official documentation from the White House of the policy on its website, nor information about the legal authority Trump would use to impose the tariffs, or whether they would be aimed at all of Iran’s trading partners. The White House did not respond to a request for comment.

The Chinese embassy in Washington criticized Trump’s approach, saying China will take “all necessary measures” to safeguard its interests and opposed “any illicit unilateral sanctions and long-arm jurisdiction.”

“China’s position against the indiscriminate imposition of tariffs is consistent and clear. Tariff wars and trade wars have no winners, and coercion and pressure cannot solve problems,” a spokesperson of the Chinese embassy in Washington said on X.

Iran, which had a 12-day war with U.S. ally Israel last year and whose nuclear facilities the U.S. military bombed in June, is seeing its biggest anti-government demonstrations in years.

Trump has said the U.S. may meet Iranian officials and that he was in contact with Iran’s opposition, while piling pressure on its leaders, including threatening military action.

Tehran said on Monday it was keeping communication channels with Washington open as Trump considered how to respond to the situation in Iran, which has posed one of the gravest tests of clerical rule in the country since the Islamic Revolution in 1979.

Demonstrations evolved from complaints about dire economic hardships to defiant calls for the fall of the deeply entrenched clerical establishment. U.S.-based rights group HRANA said it had verified the deaths of 599 people – 510 protesters and 89 security personnel – since the protests began on December 28.

While air strikes were one of many alternatives open to Trump, “diplomacy is always the first option for the president,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on Monday.

During the course of his second term in office, Trump has often threatened and imposed tariffs on other countries over their ties with U.S. adversaries and over trade policies that he has described as unfair to Washington.

Trump’s trade policy is under legal pressure as the U.S. Supreme Court is considering striking down a broad swathe of Trump’s existing tariffs.

Iran exported products to 147 trading partners in 2022, according to World Bank’s most recent data.

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Afghanistan–China joint market opens in Kabul

In a statement issued on Monday, the ACCI said the newly launched “Afghan–China Market” offers approximately 28,000 varieties of Chinese products, now available to consumers across the capital.

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The Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce and Investment (ACCI) has announced the official opening of a joint Afghanistan–China market in Kabul, established through shared investment by Afghan and Chinese traders.

In a statement issued on Monday, the ACCI said the newly launched “Afghan–China Market” offers approximately 28,000 varieties of Chinese products, now available to consumers across the capital.

Officials overseeing the project said the goods are being sold at competitive prices while meeting quality standards, with the aim of expanding choices for Kabul residents and supporting local traders.

They noted that joint initiatives of this nature can contribute significantly to economic growth, enhance bilateral trade ties between Afghanistan and China, and encourage increased foreign investment.

The launch of the Afghan–China Market aligns with broader efforts to strengthen regional trade cooperation and generate new business and employment opportunities within Afghanistan.

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Gold edges past $4,600/oz as Powell-Trump rift stokes safe-haven demand

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Gold broke through $4,600/ounce for the first time on Monday, while silver also hit a record high, as investors snapped up safe havens due to heightened geopolitical uncertainties and a criminal probe into Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell.

Spot gold jumped 1.3% to $4,566.80 per ounce by 0410 GMT. Bullion hit a record high of $4,600.33 earlier in the day, Reuters reported.

U.S. gold futures for February delivery firmed 1.8% to $4,579.10.

“So, between events in Iran, and potential U.S. involvement, and the (Fed) chair being the focus of a criminal probe… U.S. futures turned lower on the Powell news, which was a green light for gold to take a run higher,” said Tim Waterer, KCM Trade’s chief market analyst.

Unrest in Iran has killed more than 500 people, a rights group said on Sunday, as Tehran threatened to target U.S. military bases if President Donald Trump carries out his renewed threats to strike the country on behalf of protesters.

Iran’s unrest comes as Trump flexes U.S. muscles internationally, having ousted Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, and discussing acquiring Greenland by purchase or force.

Powell said on Sunday the Trump administration had threatened him with a criminal indictment over Congressional testimony, an action Powell called a “pretext” aimed at putting further pressure on the central bank to lower rates. This sent the dollar and U.S. equity futures lower.

Investors currently expect at least two Fed rate cuts this year.

Non-yielding assets tend to do well in a low-interest-rate environment and during geopolitical or economic uncertainties.

“I expect that central bank appetite for gold and silver will continue to grow this year, with precious metals perceived as being a lower risk alternative to the dollar,” Waterer said.

Spot silver was up 4.1% at $83.20 per ounce, after hitting an all-time high of $83.96 earlier in the day.

Spot platinum climbed 3.4% to $2,349.59 per ounce after scaling a record high of $2,478.50 on December 29.

Palladium gained 3.4% to $1,877.96 per ounce.

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