Climate Change
US scientists say one-in-three chance 2024 another year of record heat
This year has a one-in-three chance of being even hotter than 2023, which was already the world’s hottest on record, scientists from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said on Friday.
In its annual global climate analysis, the agency confirmed the findings of EU scientists that 2023 was the warmest since records began in 1850, putting it at 1.35 degrees Celsius (2.43 degrees Fahrenheit) above the preindustrial average. The amount of heat stored in the upper layers of the ocean also reached a record high last year, NOAA said, Reuters reported.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) also confirmed 2023 was a record year on Friday and said the world has warmed 1.2C (2.16F) above the preindustrial average, based on the ten-year global average temperature from 2014 to 2023.
The record was made possible by climate change, driven by the burning of fossil fuels, alongside an El Nino climate pattern that emerged halfway through the year. El Nino is a natural event that leads to warmer surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean and higher global temperatures.
It is expected to persist until at least April, increasing the likelihood 2024 will be another record year.
“The interesting and depressing question is what will happen in 2024? Will it be warmer than 2023? We don’t know yet,” said Christopher Hewitt, WMO head of international climate services.
NOAA said there was a one-in-three chance that 2024 would be warmer than 2023, and a 99% chance it would rank among the five warmest on record.
“It’s highly likely (El Nino) will persist until April, possibly May, and then beyond that we’re not sure — it becomes less certain,” said Hewitt.
The impacts of El Nino normally peak during the Northern Hemisphere’s winter and then diminish, switching to either neutral conditions or a La Nina phase which generally yields cooler global temperatures. But there is also the risk El Nino will return.
“If we were to make a transition into a La Nina phase … maybe 2024 might not be the warmest on record,” said Carlo Buontempo, director of Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.
As the Southern Hemisphere is now in summer when El Nino peaks, authorities are on alert for heatwaves, drought and fire.
This week, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology issued extreme heat alerts for Western Australia.
And in southern Africa, “we’re really concerned about the potential for dry spells in January and February with a high likelihood of below-average rainfall,” said Lark Walters, a decision support adviser for the Famine Early Warning System Network.
“We’re estimating over 20 million will be in need of emergency food assistance.”
Climate Change
El Niño likely to intensify, may become strongest ever recorded, WMO says
A very strong El Niño can significantly shift rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide, and fuel extreme weather, like typhoons.
The El Niño weather phenomenon is set to intensify further into 2027 and could be the strongest ever, raising risks of extreme weather into next year, the World Meteorological Organization said on Thursday.
“If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began. So literally off the charts we have used for the past four decades,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo told a Geneva press conference, Reuters reported.
The U.N. weather agency said its forecasts showed a near 100% likelihood that El Niño will persist through February 2027, fuelled by exceptionally warm Pacific Ocean temperatures. This is the first time it has expressed such a degree of certainty, the WMO said.
A very strong El Niño can significantly shift rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide, and fuel extreme weather, like typhoons.
“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: The planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up,” said United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.
El Niño is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific caused by weakening trade winds. It occurs naturally every two to seven years and tends to last up to 12 months, causing intense rains and droughts across Latin America.
This year’s phenomenon has already had an impact on soft commodities in tropical areas, causing a severe food crisis across Central America’s Dry Corridor.
It is set to peak towards the end of this year, the WMO said in a statement. But its effects will continue into 2027 and are set to leave higher global temperatures next year in its wake, Saulo said.
Saulo said the WMO was stepping up preparedness and early warning efforts in preparation.
“WMO is committed to working closely with partners across the United Nations and humanitarian system to provide the climate intelligence and insights needed to support disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water resources,” she said.
Climate Change
Nepal flood rescue mission enters critical phase as thousands remain missing
Nepal’s search, rescue and recovery operation has entered a critical phase after devastating flash floods swept through communities along the Bhotekoshi and Trishuli river systems, leaving hundreds dead and thousands of people still unaccounted for.
The latest figures put the death toll at 734, with 2,498 people still missing. More than 8,000 people have been rescued or evacuated, including foreign nationals.
The disaster struck on August 26 when a massive surge of water and debris tore through communities in northern and central Nepal. The precise cause remains under investigation, although the catastrophe has been linked to a glacier collapse or ice-and-rock avalanche in the Himalayan region.
Rescue teams race to reach trapped workers
Among the most urgent rescue operations is the search for workers believed to be trapped inside hydropower tunnels along the Trishuli corridor.
Authorities say 933 hydropower workers are among those reported missing. At the Trishuli 3A hydropower project, rescuers have inserted a pipe into a tunnel and begun pumping air inside as teams work to reach people who may still be alive.
Specialist teams from neighbouring India and China are assisting with the difficult tunnel operations. Access remains extremely challenging, with roads and bridges destroyed, tunnel entrances buried and sections of infrastructure cut off by mud and floodwater.
Helicopters remain vital
With large sections of the affected region inaccessible by road, helicopters have become a crucial part of the rescue effort.
Military and other rescue aircraft are being used to evacuate survivors, transport food and medical supplies and reach communities cut off by the destruction. Poor weather, mountainous terrain and rising river levels, however, continue to hamper operations.
Authorities have also warned residents to remain vigilant as water levels rise in some rivers and new landslides create additional risks.
Search turns to recovery
As hopes of finding survivors continue, rescue teams are also facing the grim task of recovering and identifying victims.
Hundreds of bodies and human remains have been recovered from flood-affected districts, with some carried considerable distances downstream. The scale of the disaster has placed enormous pressure on local identification facilities, while additional forensic and DNA-testing support is being sought.
Families of missing people have gathered at hospitals, rescue centres and military bases, searching lists of survivors and recovered victims for information about relatives who remain unaccounted for.
International assistance grows
International support is also arriving as Nepal begins the enormous task of providing emergency assistance and planning for reconstruction.
India has deployed specialist rescue personnel and relief supplies, while China is assisting with tunnel rescue operations. Other countries and international organisations are also providing humanitarian assistance and specialist equipment.
The destruction of roads, bridges, homes, power infrastructure and hydropower facilities is expected to create a major long-term reconstruction challenge.
A race against time
For rescuers, the immediate priority remains finding those who may still be alive beneath collapsed structures and inside flooded tunnels.
For families, the operation is becoming a desperate search for answers.
Across the devastated river valleys, rescue workers continue digging through mud and debris while helicopters move between isolated communities. But with thousands still missing and the threat of further flooding and landslides, authorities face a race against time to locate survivors and recover those who did not make it.
Climate Change
China evacuates thousands as Typhoon Narra brings torrential rain
Flooding and waterlogging were also reported in Pingxiang City and Ningming County, with rural roads submerged and farmland inundated.
Authorities in China’s southern Guangxi Zhuang Autonomous Region are evacuating residents trapped by flooding as Typhoon Narra brings heavy rain to the area.
In Shangsi County of Fangchenggang City, floodwater reached around 1.5 metres in some urban areas, inundating major roads and leaving several villages without drinking water, electricity or communications.
Local authorities deployed 50 militiamen to search for and rescue residents overnight using rubber boats and relief supplies. At least 203 people have been safely evacuated.
Flooding and waterlogging were also reported in Pingxiang City and Ningming County, with rural roads submerged and farmland inundated.
More than 400 militiamen were deployed to help evacuate residents, including door-to-door operations. In one severely affected village in Ningming, inflatable boats were used to ferry villagers across a flooded river.
In Youyi Township of Pingxiang, rescuers helped elderly people and children with limited mobility reach safer areas. By Monday morning, local militiamen had assisted 1,499 people trapped by the floods.
Typhoon Narra, the 19th typhoon of the year, was located in the Beibu Gulf early Monday, about 185 kilometres southwest of Beihai, with maximum winds of 23 metres per second near its centre.
The storm was expected to move eastward before turning north, travelling at 5 to 10 kilometres per hour toward coastal areas of Guangxi and western Leizhou Peninsula in neighbouring Guangdong Province.
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