Climate Change
US scientists say one-in-three chance 2024 another year of record heat
This year has a one-in-three chance of being even hotter than 2023, which was already the world’s hottest on record, scientists from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said on Friday.
In its annual global climate analysis, the agency confirmed the findings of EU scientists that 2023 was the warmest since records began in 1850, putting it at 1.35 degrees Celsius (2.43 degrees Fahrenheit) above the preindustrial average. The amount of heat stored in the upper layers of the ocean also reached a record high last year, NOAA said, Reuters reported.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) also confirmed 2023 was a record year on Friday and said the world has warmed 1.2C (2.16F) above the preindustrial average, based on the ten-year global average temperature from 2014 to 2023.
The record was made possible by climate change, driven by the burning of fossil fuels, alongside an El Nino climate pattern that emerged halfway through the year. El Nino is a natural event that leads to warmer surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean and higher global temperatures.
It is expected to persist until at least April, increasing the likelihood 2024 will be another record year.
“The interesting and depressing question is what will happen in 2024? Will it be warmer than 2023? We don’t know yet,” said Christopher Hewitt, WMO head of international climate services.
NOAA said there was a one-in-three chance that 2024 would be warmer than 2023, and a 99% chance it would rank among the five warmest on record.
“It’s highly likely (El Nino) will persist until April, possibly May, and then beyond that we’re not sure — it becomes less certain,” said Hewitt.
The impacts of El Nino normally peak during the Northern Hemisphere’s winter and then diminish, switching to either neutral conditions or a La Nina phase which generally yields cooler global temperatures. But there is also the risk El Nino will return.
“If we were to make a transition into a La Nina phase … maybe 2024 might not be the warmest on record,” said Carlo Buontempo, director of Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.
As the Southern Hemisphere is now in summer when El Nino peaks, authorities are on alert for heatwaves, drought and fire.
This week, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology issued extreme heat alerts for Western Australia.
And in southern Africa, “we’re really concerned about the potential for dry spells in January and February with a high likelihood of below-average rainfall,” said Lark Walters, a decision support adviser for the Famine Early Warning System Network.
“We’re estimating over 20 million will be in need of emergency food assistance.”
Climate Change
Afghanistan needs international assistance to combat climate change: Baradar
Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs, has called for Afghanistan to have fair access to international financial and technical assistance to combat climate change and reduce losses caused by natural disasters.
Speaking at a ceremony marking the International Day for Disaster Risk Reduction, Baradar said Afghanistan continues to suffer from the effects of climate change despite having no significant role in greenhouse gas emissions or global climate degradation.
He added that Afghanistan suffered severe social and economic losses last year due to earthquakes, seasonal floods and droughts. These disasters caused casualties and extensive financial losses, as well as damage to public infrastructure.
Emphasizing the need for climate justice, Baradar said: “It is inconsistent with the principles of global climate justice that we have no role in creating the problem, yet must bear its severe consequences and pay the price for the destruction caused by others.”
He urged the international community, the United Nations and climate-related organizations not to allow political considerations to interfere with efforts to combat climate change.
Baradar said climate change affects everyone and that protecting the global climate is a shared responsibility of all countries, without exception.
He stressed that fair access to international financial and technical assistance to reduce losses caused by natural disasters and climate change is Afghanistan’s right.
The Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs also called on the international community to provide practical assistance by supplying modern meteorological equipment, early warning systems, advanced rescue equipment and support to strengthen Afghanistan’s technical capacity.
He further said the Islamic Emirate had made significant efforts to construct buildings that meet standards for resilience against natural disasters, build standard retaining walls to control water flows, and protect and restore forests. He added that these efforts would continue.
Climate Change
Afghanistan on climate front line as Kabul faces groundwater warning
Participants also highlighted growing pressure on already limited water and other community resources following the return of large numbers of Afghan migrants.
Afghanistan is among the countries most vulnerable to climate change despite contributing less than 0.1 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, UN officials and experts said at a meeting on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York.
The meeting, titled “Afghanistan on the Front Line of Climate and Migration Pressures,” brought together UN representatives, experts and Afghan activists to discuss the country’s worsening water crisis, drought, floods, displacement and the impact of climate change.
Selwin Hart, Adviser to the UN Secretary-General on Climate Action, said Afghanistan faces severe climate vulnerability, environmental degradation, economic fragility and limited institutional capacity.
“Afghanistan accounts for less than 0.1 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions, but faces severe climate vulnerability, environmental degradation, economic fragility and limited institutional capacity,” Hart said.
He said drought had severely affected Afghan communities for four consecutive years between 2021 and 2024, while flash floods this spring affected more than 73,000 people.
Participants also highlighted growing pressure on already limited water and other community resources following the return of large numbers of Afghan migrants.
Najibullah Sadid, a water resources and climate change expert, warned that Kabul could become the first capital in the world to face severe groundwater shortages by 2030.
Kabul’s groundwater resources have been declining amid growing demand, with the city’s population estimated at around seven million. Experts have warned that continued overuse and reduced water availability could put the capital under severe water stress in the coming years.
Switzerland’s representative to the United Nations said his country supports Afghanistan’s efforts to address climate change and water security and is working through various channels to strengthen capacity in these areas.
He said Switzerland supports initiatives including the UN Regional Centre for Preventive Diplomacy in Central Asia and the Global Network of Women in Water Diplomacy, as well as the network’s activities in Central Asia and Afghanistan.
Participants called for Afghanistan’s climate crisis to be addressed through greater international cooperation and responsibility. They also urged improved access for Afghanistan and local institutions to financial resources for climate adaptation and compensation for climate-related losses.
Climate Change
El Niño likely to intensify, may become strongest ever recorded, WMO says
A very strong El Niño can significantly shift rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide, and fuel extreme weather, like typhoons.
The El Niño weather phenomenon is set to intensify further into 2027 and could be the strongest ever, raising risks of extreme weather into next year, the World Meteorological Organization said on Thursday.
“If this trajectory continues, it may be stronger than anything since our monitoring began. So literally off the charts we have used for the past four decades,” WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo told a Geneva press conference, Reuters reported.
The U.N. weather agency said its forecasts showed a near 100% likelihood that El Niño will persist through February 2027, fuelled by exceptionally warm Pacific Ocean temperatures. This is the first time it has expressed such a degree of certainty, the WMO said.
A very strong El Niño can significantly shift rainfall and temperature patterns worldwide, and fuel extreme weather, like typhoons.
“El Niño is being supersized before our eyes. The science leaves no room for doubt: The planet is in uncharted waters, and those waters are heating up,” said United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres.
El Niño is a periodic warming of sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific caused by weakening trade winds. It occurs naturally every two to seven years and tends to last up to 12 months, causing intense rains and droughts across Latin America.
This year’s phenomenon has already had an impact on soft commodities in tropical areas, causing a severe food crisis across Central America’s Dry Corridor.
It is set to peak towards the end of this year, the WMO said in a statement. But its effects will continue into 2027 and are set to leave higher global temperatures next year in its wake, Saulo said.
Saulo said the WMO was stepping up preparedness and early warning efforts in preparation.
“WMO is committed to working closely with partners across the United Nations and humanitarian system to provide the climate intelligence and insights needed to support disaster management and climate-sensitive sectors like agriculture, health, energy and water resources,” she said.
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