Climate Change
US scientists say one-in-three chance 2024 another year of record heat
This year has a one-in-three chance of being even hotter than 2023, which was already the world’s hottest on record, scientists from the U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said on Friday.
In its annual global climate analysis, the agency confirmed the findings of EU scientists that 2023 was the warmest since records began in 1850, putting it at 1.35 degrees Celsius (2.43 degrees Fahrenheit) above the preindustrial average. The amount of heat stored in the upper layers of the ocean also reached a record high last year, NOAA said, Reuters reported.
The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) also confirmed 2023 was a record year on Friday and said the world has warmed 1.2C (2.16F) above the preindustrial average, based on the ten-year global average temperature from 2014 to 2023.
The record was made possible by climate change, driven by the burning of fossil fuels, alongside an El Nino climate pattern that emerged halfway through the year. El Nino is a natural event that leads to warmer surface waters in the eastern Pacific Ocean and higher global temperatures.
It is expected to persist until at least April, increasing the likelihood 2024 will be another record year.
“The interesting and depressing question is what will happen in 2024? Will it be warmer than 2023? We don’t know yet,” said Christopher Hewitt, WMO head of international climate services.
NOAA said there was a one-in-three chance that 2024 would be warmer than 2023, and a 99% chance it would rank among the five warmest on record.
“It’s highly likely (El Nino) will persist until April, possibly May, and then beyond that we’re not sure — it becomes less certain,” said Hewitt.
The impacts of El Nino normally peak during the Northern Hemisphere’s winter and then diminish, switching to either neutral conditions or a La Nina phase which generally yields cooler global temperatures. But there is also the risk El Nino will return.
“If we were to make a transition into a La Nina phase … maybe 2024 might not be the warmest on record,” said Carlo Buontempo, director of Europe’s Copernicus Climate Change Service.
As the Southern Hemisphere is now in summer when El Nino peaks, authorities are on alert for heatwaves, drought and fire.
This week, Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology issued extreme heat alerts for Western Australia.
And in southern Africa, “we’re really concerned about the potential for dry spells in January and February with a high likelihood of below-average rainfall,” said Lark Walters, a decision support adviser for the Famine Early Warning System Network.
“We’re estimating over 20 million will be in need of emergency food assistance.”
Climate Change
Iran war is supercharging the clean energy transition, UN climate chief says
The Iran war is “supercharging” the world’s shift to renewable energy, as countries scramble to reduce their exposure to volatile oil and gas markets, the U.N. climate secretary said on Thursday.
The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has upended oil and gas supplies, prompting some countries to ration fuel and others to roll out subsidies and tax cuts to shield consumers from surging prices, Reuters reported.
Early signs indicate the war, which began two months ago, is speeding up some countries’ low-carbon transition.
Demand for rooftop solar systems across Europe has surged, while countries including Pakistan have reported a jump in electric vehicle sales.
Chinese President Xi Jinping called this month to speed up the construction of a new energy system to safeguard energy security, emphasising hydropower development and the expansion of nuclear power.
“Those who’ve fought to keep the world hooked on fossil fuels are inadvertently supercharging the global renewables boom,” said Simon Stiell, Executive Secretary of the U.N.’s climate secretariat UNFCCC.
“Renewables offer safer, cheaper, cleaner energy that can’t be held captive by narrow shipping straits, or global conflicts,” Stiell told a meeting of government officials at the International Energy Agency in Paris.
However, the war has also prompted some nations to increase the use of highly polluting coal or furnace oil-based power generation as they struggle to replace gas from the Middle East.
Turkey’s Climate Minister Murat Kurum – who will preside over the U.N.’s COP31 climate summit this year – said fossil fuel dependency now topped the global political agenda.
“The best way to protect citizens from the violent convulsions of global energy markets is to accelerate the clean-energy transition,” he said in a statement after the IEA event.
Around 60 governments including Brazil, Germany, Canada and Nigeria, met in Colombia this week for a summit to discuss how to phase out fossil fuels.
Conference hosts Colombia and the Netherlands said on Thursday countries had agreed to continue working, over the next year, on how to do this in their trade systems.
Climate Change
Uzbek president emphasizes Afghanistan’s role in regional water cooperation
At a regional water summit in Astana on Wednesday, Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev emphasized the importance of involving Afghanistan in broader regional cooperation on water, climate, and environmental issues.
He underlined that Afghanistan’s participation is essential for effective management of shared water resources in Central Asia, particularly in the Aral Sea basin, where upstream and downstream countries are closely interconnected.
The Uzbek president also called for increased international support for environmental protection and land reclamation projects inside Afghanistan.
He further stressed that long-term stability in the region will depend on the development of a legal framework governing water allocation that clearly defines the rights and obligations of all countries in the basin.
Uzbekistan’s authorities have expressed concern over the construction of the Qosh Tepa canal in Afghanistan, saying it could “radically change the water regime and balance” in Central Asia.
The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA), however, has said that Uzbekistan will not be harmed by the canal.
Climate Change
Webinar series highlights growing climate pressures on livelihoods in Afghanistan
Afghanistan is widely regarded as one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change, with limited capacity to manage its effects.
A recent webinar series hosted by the United Nations Assistance Mission (UNAMA) in Afghanistan has underscored the escalating impact of climate change on humanitarian needs and livelihoods across Afghanistan.
Held in partnership with Samuel Hall, the six-part series in late 2025 brought together Afghan experts, humanitarian workers, UN agencies, NGOs and local stakeholders to examine the country’s mounting environmental challenges and explore potential responses.
Afghanistan is widely regarded as one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change, with limited capacity to manage its effects. Participants warned that communities are already facing severe consequences, including rising displacement, worsening food insecurity and increasing pressure on natural resources.
The discussions highlighted that nearly 70 percent of the population depends on climate-sensitive agriculture, leaving livelihoods exposed to shifting weather patterns. A changing water cycle has intensified water scarcity nationwide, while urban centres such as Kabul are grappling with declining groundwater levels.
At the same time, increasingly erratic seasonal flooding continues to damage homes, infrastructure and farmland, compounding humanitarian needs.
Speakers also pointed to the growing link between climate change and displacement, noting that environmental shocks are driving both internal migration and cross-border movements as livelihoods come under strain.
Across the six sessions, participants explored a range of themes, including water management, climate finance, the role of women and youth, and the intersection of climate change with peace and security.
The series aimed to amplify Afghan perspectives and maintain focus on the country’s climate challenges, particularly as Afghanistan remains largely absent from global climate forums.
Organisers said the discussions highlighted both the scale of the crisis and the depth of local expertise available to respond, while calling for sustained, coordinated and evidence-based action.
Summary notes and recordings from the sessions have been released to inform policymakers, donors and practitioners, outlining key recommendations and areas requiring further investment and collaboration.
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