Russia will see revenue from its biggest ‌single oil tax double to $9 billion in April due to the oil and gas crisis triggered by the U.S. and Israeli attack on Iran, Reuters calculations showed on Thursday.

The Reuters calculation is some of the first concrete evidence of a windfall ​for Russia, the world’s second-largest oil exporter, from the Iran war, which oil traders say has ​triggered the most serious energy crisis in recent history.

Iran effectively shut the Strait of ⁠Hormuz – a route for about a fifth of global oil and LNG flows – after U.S. and Israeli ​airstrikes on Iran at the end of February, sending Brent futures shooting well past $100 per barrel.

Russia’s main revenue from ​its vast oil and gas industry is based on production. Export duty on crude oil has been nullified from the start of 2024 as part of the so-called wider tax manoeuvre, a years-long tax reform of the industry.

According to Reuters calculations ​based on preliminary production data and oil prices, Russia’s mineral extraction tax on oil output will increase ​in April to around 700 billion roubles ($9 billion) from 327 billion roubles in March. The revenue is up by some ‌10% from ⁠April last year.

For the whole of 2026, Russia has budgeted for 7.9 trillion roubles from the mineral extraction tax.

The average price of Russia’s Urals crude, used for taxation, jumped to $77 per barrel in March, its highest since October 2023, according to economy ministry data.

That was up 73% from February’s $44.59 per barrel ​and above the level of $59 ​assumed in this year’s ⁠state budget.

The Kremlin said on Tuesday there were a huge number of requests for Russian energy from a range of different places amid a grave global energy crisis ​that was shaking the foundations of the oil and gas markets.

Still, there are ​limits on ⁠the windfall for Russia, and economists inside Russia have repeatedly cautioned that 2026 could be a tough year.

Russia ran a budget deficit of 4.58 trillion roubles, or 1.9% of gross domestic product, in January-March 2026, the finance ministry ⁠said on ​Wednesday.

And Ukraine’s attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, with an aim ​to cripple Moscow’s finances, have also contributed to lower earnings and threaten oil production cuts.

The size of the windfall for Russia will ultimately depend ​on how long the Iran crisis lasts.

As the United States and Iran move toward cementing a ceasefire, Israeli military strategy appears increasingly focused on preparing for a prolonged and evolving regional conflict.

According to Israeli officials and analysts, the country has intensified efforts to establish and maintain “buffer zones” across multiple areas, including the Gaza Strip, southern Lebanon, and parts of Syria.

The approach reflects a shift in doctrine following the October 7 attacks, with an emphasis on containing threats rather than fully eliminating them.

Reuters reported that Israeli officials say the aim of these zones is to push potential threats further from border communities and reduce the risk of attacks. Military sources indicate that areas extending several kilometres beyond Israel’s borders are being cleared or monitored to limit the reach of armed groups such as Hezbollah and Hamas.

The developments come as Washington and Tehran agreed to a temporary pause in hostilities while negotiating a broader settlement following the latest escalation, which began in late February.

While Israel has reportedly halted direct strikes on Iran, it continues operations against Iran-aligned groups in neighbouring areas.

In southern Lebanon, Israeli forces have advanced into areas near the Litani River, with military officials describing efforts to establish a security belt aimed at preventing cross-border fire. The operation has reportedly involved evacuations and the destruction of structures suspected of being used for military purposes.

Israeli leaders have framed the strategy as necessary for long-term security.

In recent remarks, Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel has created defensive belts extending beyond its borders in multiple areas, including Gaza and Syria.

However, the approach has raised concerns among analysts and legal experts. Some warn that widespread destruction of civilian infrastructure may violate international law unless clearly justified by military necessity. Others caution that maintaining multiple fronts could place significant strain on Israeli forces over time.

The strategy also reflects deep scepticism within Israel about the prospects for lasting peace agreements. Surveys in recent years suggest limited public confidence in long-term stability with Palestinians or neighbouring states, reinforcing support for security-driven policies.

At the same time, statements from some members of Israel’s government have fuelled concern about possible territorial ambitions, particularly in Gaza and southern Lebanon. Still, military officials have indicated that buffer zones are intended as flexible security measures rather than permanent borders.

As diplomatic efforts continue, the contrast between ceasefire negotiations and military preparations highlights the uncertainty surrounding the region’s trajectory—raising the possibility that even if fighting subsides in the short term, a longer period of instability may lie ahead.

In a significant diplomatic development, Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif held a telephone conversation on Wednesday afternoon with Masoud Pezeshkian, the president of Iran, ahead of scheduled negotiations between Tehran and Washington in Islamabad later this week.

The call, described as “warm and cordial” and lasting more than 45 minutes, highlighted Pakistan’s role in helping secure a temporary ceasefire between the United States and Iran, following weeks of rising regional tensions.

During the conversation, Sharif expressed deep appreciation for the Iranian leadership’s wisdom in agreeing to the ceasefire and thanked Pezeshkian for accepting Pakistan’s offer to host the negotiations. He also conveyed his respects to Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei.

Pezeshkian, in turn, thanked Sharif and praised Pakistan’s efforts in mediating the ceasefire. He confirmed that Iran would participate in the upcoming talks and sent best wishes to the people of Pakistan. Both leaders agreed to remain in close contact.

The Islamabad-hosted negotiations follow a two-week ceasefire agreement between the United States and Iran, aimed at preventing further escalation and stabilizing the region.

Pakistan has actively called for an end to hostilities, citing economic disruptions and security concerns. Tehran has agreed to ensure safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping during the ceasefire.

International observers see the Islamabad talks as a critical opportunity to transform a temporary pause into a lasting settlement.

While global leaders have cautiously welcomed the ceasefire, they stress that sustained diplomacy will be necessary to achieve long-term peace. Analysts note that significant hurdles remain, and the outcome of the talks will have broad implications for regional stability and global markets.