Business
Afghanistan faces economic strains following a ‘series of shocks’ last year
These pressures have driven an estimated 11 percent population increase in the fiscal year 2025, largely due to returning migrants, the World Bank stated.
Afghanistan’s fragile economy is grappling with a series of shocks that intensified in 2025, according to a World Bank economic update report released on Wednesday.
The report noted that Afghanistan has been hit by reduced foreign aid, prolonged crossing closures along the disputed Durand Line with Pakistan, natural disasters, and a significant return of refugees from Iran and Pakistan.
These pressures have driven an estimated 11 percent population increase in the fiscal year 2025, largely due to returning migrants, the World Bank stated.
While Afghanistan’s aggregate GDP grew by around 4.8 percent last year, reflecting a rebound in nonagricultural activity and private consumption, the growth has not kept pace with population expansion. As such, per capita GDP contracted by 5.6 percent, as rising inflation and higher trade and transport costs eroded living standards.
“The influx of returnees has temporarily boosted domestic demand, but also places additional strain on labor markets, housing, and social services,” the report noted.
Looking ahead, Afghanistan’s economy is projected to grow by 4.0 percent in 2026, driven by strengthening domestic demand, higher private investment, and improved absorption of returnees into the workforce. However, the report warns that ongoing conflict in the Middle East and disruptions to trade routes, particularly the 60 percent of Afghan trade that passes through Iran, pose significant risks.
“Border closures or sudden surges in returnees could further depress per capita incomes and fuel inflation,” the World Bank said. Trade rerouting may mitigate some effects, but the country remains vulnerable to regional instability.
Despite these challenges, analysts highlight that modest growth and ongoing private-sector activity offer some hope for recovery. The World Bank emphasizes that sustained economic resilience will depend on peace, stable trade corridors, and the ability to productively integrate returning populations into the labor market.
Afghanistan’s experience underscores the broader regional pressures in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAAP), where conflict and humanitarian crises continue to ripple through economies, affecting inflation, trade, and social stability.
Business
Chinese and Uzbek investors express interest in Afghanistan’s mining sector
During the meeting, the investors reportedly welcomed what they described as improved nationwide security and a more favorable investment environment under the Islamic Emirate.
Afghanistan’s Ministry of Mines and Petroleum says a group of investors from China and Uzbekistan have shown interest in investing in the country’s metallic and non-metallic mining sector.
According to the ministry, Deputy Minister for Finance and Administration Hasamuddin Saberi held talks with the foreign investors to discuss potential investment opportunities in Afghanistan’s mining industry.
During the meeting, the investors reportedly welcomed what they described as improved nationwide security and a more favorable investment environment under the Islamic Emirate. They also expressed readiness to invest in a range of mining projects across Afghanistan.
Saberi welcomed the interest shown by the Chinese and Uzbek delegations and said the Ministry of Mines and Petroleum would provide the necessary cooperation to facilitate investment in accordance with Afghanistan’s mining laws and procedures.
Afghanistan is believed to possess significant untapped reserves of minerals and rare earth resources, and the Islamic Emirate has repeatedly called on foreign investors to participate in the development of the country’s mining sector.
The Office of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar has announced a contract worth over $46 million for the construction and outfitting of standard laboratory complexes in Kabul and nine major ports across Afghanistan.
The agreement, signed Wednesday at the Government Media and Information Center, was finalized between Faizullah Tamim, head of the Standards and Quality Authority, and representatives of the Indian international firm TCRC, according to a statement from the Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Office.
Under the five-year deal, TCRC will establish modern laboratory complexes in the capital and key ports, install advanced equipment, renovate existing facilities, and introduce foreign specialists to strengthen the professional capacity of the authority’s staff.
The project will also provide domestic and international training programs for technical employees and support efforts to secure internationally recognized quality certifications from the International Organization for Standardization (ISO).
Officials said the initiative aims to improve Afghanistan’s quality control systems and enhance standards infrastructure nationwide.
Ariana Afghan Airlines has announced a reduction in cargo service rates on the Kabul–Delhi route as part of efforts to support Afghanistan’s trade and export sector.
The airline said the new cargo rate has been set at $1.20 per kilogram, a move intended to make air freight more affordable and accessible for Afghan traders and exporters.
Bakht-ur-Rahman Sharafat, head of Ariana Afghan Airlines, said the decision is expected to play a significant role in increasing exports of domestic products and strengthening commercial activity between Afghanistan and India.
He added that Ariana will continue to introduce new measures in the future to improve its services and better meet the needs of its customers.
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