Business
Afghanistan’s economic prospects are bleak: World Bank
The absence of GDP growth coupled with declining external financing avenues for off-budget expenditures paint a bleak picture of Afghanistan’s economic prospects, the World Bank said.
After a severe 20.7 percent GDP contraction in 2021, the Afghan economy contracted further by 6.2 percent in 2022, the bank said in a report.
“While Afghanistan’s agricultural and subsistence economy, including illicit opium production, provided some resilience in rural areas, higher prices, reduced demand, lower employment, and disruptions to services had severe impacts across the country,” it said.
The proportion of households that did not have enough income to meet basic food needs more than doubled from 16 percent to 36 percent in this period, according to the bank.
In the context of deep concerns about the policies of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA), including restrictions imposed on women and girls, the international community, including the World Bank, recalibrated its approach to supporting Afghanistan: first to providing humanitarian support and then to providing off-budget support for basic service delivery and livelihoods.
However, IEA moved to restore domestic revenues, which reached $2.2 billion or 15 percent of GDP in 2022. “Nevertheless, overall economic activity remained depressed, unemployment stayed high, and the banking sector was dysfunctional due to constraints on international transfers and concerns about liquidity and solvency.”
World Bank said that Afghanistan’s economic outlook remains uncertain, with the threat of stagnation looming large until at least 2025. “This economic stagnation will deepen poverty and unemployment, with job opportunities expected to decrease and food insecurity expected to increase.”
The bank noted that for a sustainable future, Afghanistan needs to focus on its comparative advantages, particularly in the agricultural and extractive sectors. Agriculture could be a key driver of growth and poverty reduction, with the potential to create jobs, it added.
Pakistan’s kinno exports remain far below potential as regional tensions, high freight costs and weak government support continue to choke the citrus trade.
Despite being a leading global citrus producer, Pakistan is expected to export just 400,000–450,000 tonnes of kinno in the 2025–26 season, compared with an estimated capacity of 700,000–800,000 tonnes.
Exports in 2024–25 stood at around 350,000–400,000 tonnes, mainly to Russia, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Afghanistan, Indonesia and Central Asia. While better fruit quality this season has raised hopes, persistent crossing disruptions—especially with Afghanistan—and transport bottlenecks have offset gains.
Growers say prices have collapsed sharply, forcing panic sales. Rates for large kinno have fallen from over Rs120 per kg early in the season to as low as Rs75, while smaller fruit is selling for Rs35–40 per kg amid weak demand.
Industry leaders warn the crisis is crippling processing units and jobs. More than 100 factories reportedly failed to open this season, with dozens more shutting down as exports stall. Cold storages in Sargodha are nearly full, putting fruit worth millions of dollars at risk of spoilage, while growers fear losses of up to Rs10 billion.
Exporters are urging the government to urgently resolve issues, subsidise logistics, and help access alternative markets, warning that prolonged inaction could devastate farmers, workers and the wider economy.
Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian has said that Tehran will facilitate trade and economic exchanges with Afghanistan, including easing procedures at customs and local marketplaces.
He made the remarks during a televised interview following his visit to South Khorasan province, which shares a border with Afghanistan.
Pezeshkian, in a separate event addressing local business leaders, highlighted the province’s strategic advantages, citing its rich mineral resources, proximity to neighboring countries such as Afghanistan and Pakistan, and access to the ocean via the Chabahar port. He described the region as “a golden opportunity not found everywhere,” emphasizing its potential for economic growth and cross-border commerce.
A Kazakh delegation led by the Deputy Minister of Finance of Kazakhstan met with Sediqullah Khalid, First Deputy Governor of Da Afghanistan Bank, to discuss ways of strengthening banking and economic cooperation between the two countries.
According to a statement issued by Da Afghanistan Bank, Khalid said the central bank is keen to establish regular and effective banking relations with Kazakhstan as part of broader efforts to expand bilateral trade.
He noted that enhanced banking cooperation would help facilitate trade, investment, and wider economic interaction between Afghanistan and Kazakhstan, while also contributing to financial stability at the regional level.
Members of the Kazakh delegation also emphasized the importance of developing banking and economic ties and expressed their readiness to expand joint cooperation.
The two sides further agreed to establish technical committees from both countries to hold expert-level discussions and advance practical steps for cooperation.
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