Regional
India and China are partners, not rivals, Modi and Xi say
Xi said that China and India are each other’s development opportunities rather than threats, Chinese state news agency Xinhua reported.
India and China are development partners, not rivals, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed on Sunday, as they discussed ways to improve trade ties amid global tariff uncertainty, Reuters reported.
Modi is in China for the first time in seven years to attend a two-day meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation regional security bloc, along with Russian President Vladimir Putin and leaders from Iran, Pakistan and four Central Asian states in a show of Global South solidarity.
Analysts say Xi and Modi are seeking to align against pressure from the West, days after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed a punitive total of 50% tariff on Indian goods, partly in response to New Delhi’s purchase of Russian oil.
Trump’s moves hurt decades of carefully cultivated U.S. ties with New Delhi, which Washington had hoped would act as a regional counterweight to Beijing.
Modi told Xi his country was committed to improving ties with China and discussed reducing India’s burgeoning bilateral trade deficit of nearly $99.2 billion, while emphasising the need to maintain peace and stability at their disputed border after a clash in 2020 triggered a five-year military standoff.
“We are committed to progressing our relations based on mutual respect, trust and sensitivities,” Modi said during the meeting on the sidelines of the summit, according to a video posted on his official X account.
He said an atmosphere of “peace and stability” has been created on their disputed Himalayan border and that cooperation between the two nations was linked to the interests of 2.8 billion people of the world’s two most populous countries.
The nuclear-armed Asian neighbours share a 3,800 km (2,400 miles) border that is poorly demarcated and has been disputed since the 1950s.
Xi said that China and India are each other’s development opportunities rather than threats, Chinese state news agency Xinhua reported.
“We must … not let the border issue define the overall China-India relationship,” Xinhua reported Xi as saying.
China-India ties could be “stable and far-reaching” if both sides focus on viewing each other as partners instead of rivals, Xi added.
Ties between the nations were ruptured by the 2020 clash, in which 20 Indian and four Chinese soldiers died in hand-to-hand combat, following which the Himalayan border was heavily militarised by both sides.
Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri told reporters later in the day in that the border situation had evolved over the course of last year, following a patrolling agreement in October. “The situation at the border is moving towards normalisation,” he said.
To a question on the U.S. tariffs, he said that Modi and Xi discussed the international “economic situation” and the challenges it created.
“They tried to … see how to leverage that for building greater understanding between themselves and how to … take forward the economic and commercial relationship between India and China,” he said.
The leaders also discussed expanding common ground on bilateral, regional, and global issues, and challenges like terrorism and fair trade in multilateral platforms, a statement from the Indian foreign ministry said.
Both leaders had a breakthrough meeting in Russia last year after reaching a border patrol agreement, setting off a tentative thaw in ties that has accelerated in recent weeks as New Delhi seeks to hedge against renewed tariff threats from Washington, read the report.
Direct flights between both nations, which have been suspended since 2020, are being resumed, Modi added, without providing a timeframe.
China had agreed to lift export curbs on rare earths, fertilisers and tunnel boring machines this month during a key visit to India by China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi.
China opposes Washington’s steep tariffs on India and will “firmly stand with India,” Chinese Ambassador to India Xu Feihong said this month.
In recent months, China has allowed Indian pilgrims to visit Hindu and Buddhist sites in Tibet, and both countries have lifted reciprocal tourist visa restrictions.
“I see the meeting as a step in the direction of incremental improvement. The readouts indicate a lot of mixed political signalling … But there’s also a sense of the need to stabilise the relationship in the context of broader geopolitical currents,” said Manoj Kewalramani, a Sino-Indian relations expert at the Takshashila Institution think tank in Bengaluru.
Other long-term irritants remain in the relationship, too.
China is India’s largest bilateral trade partner, but the long-running trade deficit – a persistent source of frustration for Indian officials – reached a record $99.2 billion this year.
Meanwhile, a planned Chinese mega-dam in Tibet has sparked fears of mass water diversion that could reduce water flows on the major Brahmaputra River by up to 85% in the dry season, according to Indian government estimates, Reuters reported.
India also hosts the Dalai Lama, the exiled Tibetan Buddhist spiritual leader whom Beijing views as a dangerous separatist influence. India’s arch-rival Pakistan also benefits from staunch Chinese economic, diplomatic and military support.
Regional
Gas leak caused blast in Iran’s Bandar Abbas, Iranian media say
A video published on social media showed people standing among debris and wrecked cars in front of a damaged building following the explosion.
An explosion that hit a building in the southern Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas on Saturday was caused by a gas leak, according to a preliminary assessment, the local head of the fire department said.
Iranian state media reported that at least two people have been killed and 14 injured in the blast, which comes amid heightened tensions between Tehran and Washington over Iran’s crackdown earlier this month on nationwide protests and over the country’s nuclear programme.
“This (gas leak) is the preliminary assessment. My colleagues will give more details in the next few hours,” Mohammad Amin Liaqat, the fire department chief, said in a video published by Iran’s semi-official Mehr news agency.
A video published on social media showed people standing among debris and wrecked cars in front of a damaged building following the explosion.
Reuters was able to verify the location by analysing buildings, trees, and road layout, which matched satellite and file imagery. Reuters could not independently verify the date the video was filmed.
Separately, four people were killed after another gas explosion in the city of Ahvaz near the Iraqi border, according to state-run Tehran Times. No further information was immediately available.
The explosions highlighted the jittery mood prevailing in Iran amid its clerical rulers’ standoff with the Trump administration.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on January 22 an “armada” was heading toward Iran. Multiple sources said on Friday that Trump was weighing options against Iran that include targeted strikes on security forces.
Ali Larijani, a senior Iranian security official, said on X on Saturday that work on a framework for negotiations with the United States was progressing, downplaying what he described as an “atmosphere created by artificial media warfare.”
Trump told Fox News correspondent Jacqui Heinrich that Iran was “negotiating, so we’ll see what happens,” Heinrich wrote on X.
“You know, the last time they negotiated, we had to take out their nuclear, didn’t work, you know. Then we took it out a different way, and we’ll see what happens,” Heinrich quoted Trump as saying.
Before the reports of the two blasts on Saturday, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian accused U.S., Israeli and European leaders of exploiting Iran’s economic problems, inciting unrest and providing people with the means to “tear the nation apart.”
The semi-official Tasnim news agency said social media reports alleging that a Revolutionary Guard navy commander had been targeted in the Bandar Abbas explosion were “completely false.”
Two Israeli officials told Reuters that Israel was not involved in Saturday’s blasts. The Pentagon did not immediately respond to a request for comment.
Bandar Abbas, home to Iran’s most important container port, lies on the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway between Iran and Oman which handles about a fifth of the world’s seaborne oil.
The port suffered a major explosion last April that killed dozens and injured over 1,000 people. An investigative committee at the time blamed the blast on shortcomings in adherence to principles of civil defence and security.
Iran has been rocked by nationwide protests that erupted in December over economic hardship and have posed one of the toughest challenges to the country’s clerical rulers.
U.S.-based rights group HRANA has said at least 6,500 people were killed in the protests, including hundreds of security personnel.
Regional
Iran ready for ‘fair’ talks with US but not on defence capabilities
U.S.-Iranian tensions have soared in recent weeks after a on protests across Iran by its clerical authorities.
Iran is prepared for the resumption of talks with the United States, but they should be fair and not include Iran’s defence capabilities, Iran’s chief diplomat said on Friday, as regional powers work to prevent military conflict between the two foes, Reuters reported.
U.S. President Donald Trump said on Thursday he planned to speak with Iran, even as the U.S. sent another warship to the Middle East and the Pentagon chief said the military would be ready to carry out whatever the president decided.
U.S.-Iranian tensions have soared in recent weeks after a on protests across Iran by its clerical authorities.
One of the main U.S. demands as a condition for resuming talks with Iran is curbing its missile programme, a senior Iranian official told Reuters last week. Iran rejects that demand.
Speaking at a press conference in Istanbul after talks with his Turkish counterpart, Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said Iran was ready to participate in “fair and equitable” negotiations, but added there were currently no meetings with U.S. officials arranged.
“Iran has no problem with negotiations, but negotiations cannot take place under the shadow of threats. They must certainly set aside their threats and change their approach toward a fair and equitable negotiation, as Mr. Trump himself said in his post,” he said.
“I should also state unequivocally that Iran’s defensive and missile capabilities — and Iran’s missiles — will never be the subject of any negotiations,” he added.
“We will preserve and expand our defensive capabilities to whatever extent is necessary to defend the country,” Araqchi said.
Regional allies, including Turkey, the United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia, have been engaging in diplomatic efforts to prevent a military confrontation between Washington and Tehran, read the report.
In response to U.S. threats of military action, Araqchi said Tehran was ready for either negotiations or warfare, and also ready to engage with regional countries to promote stability and peace.
Araqchi and Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said they had been speaking to each other almost every day to discuss the tensions.
U.S. officials say Trump his options but has not decided whether to strike Iran.
Trump has repeatedly threatened to intervene if Iran continued to kill protesters in its crackdown on the countrywide demonstrations over economic privations and political repression, but the protests have since abated.
Israel’s Ynet news website said on Friday that a U.S. Navy destroyer had docked at the Israeli port of Eilat.
NATO member Turkey shares a border with Iran and opposes any foreign intervention there. It has called for U.S.-Iran dialogue to avoid further destabilisation and has been in touch with both sides to seek a solution.
Earlier on Friday, Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan told his Iranian counterpart Masoud Pezeshkian in a call that Ankara was ready to play a “facilitator” role between the sides.
Speaking alongside Araqchi, Fidan said he had long discussions on the issue with U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff on Thursday and would keep lines open with Washington to avoid conflict and the isolation of Iran, Reuters reported.
Fidan said U.S.-Iran nuclear negotiations must restart and would pave the way to lifting sanctions on Iran. “We call the parties to the negotiating table” to address the issues “one by one,” he said.
Regional
Trump weighs Iran strikes to inspire renewed protests – Reuters
U.S. President Donald Trump is weighing options against Iran that include targeted strikes on security forces and leaders to inspire protesters, multiple sources said, even as Israeli and Arab officials said air power alone would not topple the clerical rulers, Reuters reported.
Two U.S. sources familiar with the discussions said Trump wanted to create conditions for “regime change” after a crackdown crushed a nationwide protest movement earlier this month, killing thousands of people.
To do so, he was looking at options to hit commanders and institutions Washington holds responsible for the violence, to give protesters the confidence that they could overrun government and security buildings, they said.
One of the U.S. sources said the options being discussed by Trump’s aides also included a much larger strike intended to have lasting impact, possibly against the ballistic missiles that can reach U.S. allies in the Middle East or its nuclear enrichment programmes.
The other U.S. source said Trump has not yet made a final decision on a course of action including whether to take the military path.
The arrival of a U.S. aircraft carrier and supporting warships in the Middle East this week has expanded Trump’s capabilities to potentially take military action, after he repeatedly threatened intervention over Iran’s crackdown.
Four Arab officials, three Western diplomats and a senior Western source whose governments were briefed on the discussions said they were concerned that instead of bringing people onto the streets, such strikes could weaken a movement already in shock after the bloodiest repression by authorities since the 1979 Islamic Revolution.
Alex Vatanka, director of the Iran Program at the Middle East Institute, said that without large-scale military defections Iran’s protests remained “heroic but outgunned.”
The sources in this story requested anonymity to talk about sensitive matters. Iran’s foreign office, the U.S. Department of Defense and the White House did not respond to requests for comment. The Israeli Prime Minister’s office declined to comment.
Trump urged Iran on Wednesday to come to the table and make a deal on nuclear weapons, warning that any future U.S. attack would be more severe than a June bombing campaign against three nuclear sites. He described the ships in the region as an “armada” sailing to Iran.
A senior Iranian official told Reuters that Iran was “preparing itself for a military confrontation, while at the same time making use of diplomatic channels.” However, Washington was not showing openness to diplomacy, the official said.
Iran, which says its nuclear program is civilian, was ready for dialogue “based on mutual respect and interests” but would defend itself “like never before” if pushed, Iran’s mission to the United Nations said in a post on X on Wednesday.
Trump has not publicly detailed what he is looking for in any deal. His administration’s previous negotiating points have included banning Iran from independently enriching uranium and restrictions on long-range ballistic missiles and on Tehran’s network of armed proxies in the Middle East.
LIMITS OF AIR POWER
A senior Israeli official with direct knowledge of planning between Israel and the United States told Reuters Israel does not believe airstrikes alone can topple the Islamic Republic, if that is Washington’s goal.
“If you’re going to topple the regime, you have to put boots on the ground,” he said, noting that even if the United States killed Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran would “have a new leader that will replace him.”
Only a combination of external pressure and an organised domestic opposition could shift Iran’s political trajectory, the official said.
The Israeli official said Iran’s leadership had been weakened by the unrest but remained firmly in control despite the ongoing deep economic crisis that sparked the protests.
Multiple U.S. intelligence reports reached a similar conclusion, that the conditions that led to the protests were still in place, weakening the government, but without major fractures, two people familiar with the matter said.
The Western source said they believed Trump’s goal appeared to be to engineer a change in leadership, rather than “topple the regime,” an outcome that would be similar to Venezuela, where U.S. intervention replaced the president without a wholesale change of government.
Khamenei has publicly acknowledged several thousand deaths during the protests. He blamed the unrest on the United States, Israel and what he called “seditionists.”
U.S.-based rights group HRANA has put the unrest-related death toll at 5,937, including 214 security personnel, while official figures put the death toll at 3,117. Reuters has been unable to independently verify the numbers.
KHAMENEI RETAINS CONTROL BUT LESS VISIBLE
At 86, Khamenei has retreated from daily governance, reduced public appearances and is believed to be residing in secure locations after Israeli strikes last year decimated many of Iran’s senior military leaders, regional officials said.
Day-to-day management has shifted to figures aligned with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), including senior adviser Ali Larijani, they said. The powerful Guards dominate Iran’s security network and big parts of the economy.
However, Khamenei retains final authority over war, succession and nuclear strategy – meaning political change is very difficult until he exits the scene, they said. Iran’s foreign ministry did not respond to questions about Khamenei.
In Washington and Jerusalem, some officials have argued that a transition in Iran could break the nuclear deadlock and eventually open the door to more cooperative ties with the West, two of the Western diplomats said.
But, they cautioned, there is no clear successor to Khamenei. In that vacuum, the Arab officials and diplomats said they believe the IRGC could take over, entrenching hard-line rule, deepening the nuclear standoff and regional tensions.
Any successor seen as emerging under foreign pressure would be rejected and could strengthen, not weaken the IRGC, the official said.
Across the region, from the Gulf to Turkey, officials say they favour containment over collapse – not out of sympathy for Tehran, but out of fear that turmoil inside a nation of 90 million, riven by sectarian and ethnic fault lines, could unleash instability far beyond Iran’s borders.
A fractured Iran could spiral into civil war as happened after the 2003 U.S. invasion of Iraq, two of the Western diplomats warned, unleashing an influx of refugees, fueling Islamist militancy and disrupting oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a global energy chokepoint.
The gravest risk, analyst Vatanka warned, is fragmentation into “early-stage Syria,” with rival units and provinces fighting for territory and resources.
REGIONAL BLOWBACK
Gulf states – long‑time U.S. allies and hosts to major American bases- fear they would be the first targets for Iranian retaliation that could include Iranian missiles or drone attacks from the Tehran-aligned Houthis in Yemen.
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Oman and Egypt have lobbied Washington against a strike on Iran. Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman has told Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian that Riyadh will not allow its airspace or territory to be used for military actions against Tehran.
“The United States may pull the trigger,” one of the Arab sources said, “but it will not live with the consequences. We will.”
Mohannad Hajj-Ali of the Carnegie Middle East Center said the U.S. deployments suggest planning has shifted from a single strike to something more sustained, driven by a belief in Washington and Jerusalem that Iran could rebuild its missile capabilities and eventually weaponise its enriched uranium.
The most likely outcome is a “grinding erosion – elite defections, economic paralysis, contested succession – that frays the system until it snaps,” analyst Vatanka said.
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