The UN Security Council is expected to discuss escalating tensions between Afghanistan and Pakistan this month, as cross Durand Line clashes, airstrikes and militant attacks fuel growing fears of wider regional instability.

Diplomats say the situation will be raised during the Council’s quarterly briefing on Afghanistan, where senior UN officials from the UN Assistance Mission in Afghanistan (UNAMA) and the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA) are set to present updates on security, humanitarian needs and political developments.

Friction between Islamabad and the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) has been building since the Tehreek-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) ended its ceasefire with Pakistan in late 2022.

The standoff escalated sharply in October when Afghan authorities accused Pakistan of launching strikes in Kabul and Paktika. Pakistan denies conducting the attacks but maintains that Afghan soil is being used for operations by the TTP—an allegation the IEA rejects.

A UN monitoring report released in July said the TTP continues to receive “substantial logistical and operational support” from inside Afghanistan.

In the days following the October accusations, fierce clashes erupted at multiple points along the Durand Line. Pakistan reportedly carried out airstrikes in Kabul and Kandahar provinces on 15 October, while skirmishes and retaliatory fire left both civilians and security personnel dead or injured.

UNAMA confirmed that at least 17 civilians were killed and more than 340 wounded in Spin Boldak, with additional casualties documented across Paktika, Kunar, Paktia and Helmand.

Ceasefire Holds, but Talks Stall

The two sides agreed to a 48-hour ceasefire on 15 October, later extended and formalised in Doha with mediation from Qatar and Türkiye. While largely holding, the truce has been punctuated by sporadic incidents, including a Pakistani airstrike in Paktika on 17 October and renewed exchanges of fire near Spin Boldak on 6 November.

IEA officials last week accused Pakistan of carrying out new strikes in Khost, Kunar and Paktika, claiming women and children were among the casualties. Pakistan’s military denied responsibility.

Negotiations in Doha have meanwhile stalled, with Pakistan pressing Kabul to take decisive action against the TTP. Pakistani Defence Minister Khawaja Muhammad Asif warned in late October of the possibility of “open war” if no agreement is reached.

Tensions have been further aggravated by militant attacks inside Pakistan. Two suicide bombings on 11 and 12 November killed 15 people, including one outside a courthouse in Islamabad. Pakistan has blamed Afghan nationals and again accused the IEA of enabling militants. Afghan authorities dismiss the allegations.

Humanitarian crisis deepens

The widening security rift comes as Afghanistan faces one of the world’s most severe humanitarian crises. OCHA estimates that 22.9 million people—over half the population—required assistance in 2025.

This year’s mass return of nearly two million Afghans from Iran and Pakistan has placed immense pressure on crossing facilities and aid networks. A series of deadly earthquakes since August has also compounded the suffering.

Council weighs response

With the ceasefire fragile and talks at an impasse, UN Security Council members are expected to consider their options. Diplomats say one proposal under discussion is a resolution urging both sides to avoid further escalation, recommit to dialogue, and respect counter-terrorism obligations—including halting any support to the TTP.

UNAMA’s mandate runs until 17 March 2026, and officials are expected to brief the Council on the security situation, humanitarian constraints, and ongoing political engagement efforts, including the Doha process.

As the areas along the disputed Durand Line remain volatile, analysts warn that even a limited miscalculation could quickly widen the conflict—heightening risks for civilians and complicating UN efforts to stabilise the region.