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Afghanistan’s growth prospects remain uncertain amid global uncertainty: World Bank report

According to the report, in Afghanistan, despite aid cuts, the economy is estimated to have grown by 2.5 percent in FY24-25, which was slower than the pace of population growth.

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Amid increasing uncertainty in the global economy, South Asia’s growth prospects have weakened, with projections downgraded in most countries in the region, including Afghanistan.

Stepping up domestic revenue mobilization could help the region strengthen fragile fiscal positions and increase resilience against future shocks, said the World Bank in its twice-yearly regional outlook – the South Asia Development Update – which was released on Wednesday.

According to the report, in Afghanistan, despite aid cuts, the economy is estimated to have grown by 2.5 percent in FY24-25, which was slower than the pace of population growth.

Growth is forecast to increase only moderately to 2.2 percent in 2025/26, the World Bank report stated.

Coinciding with the release of the South Asia report was the World Bank’s Afghanistan Development Update report which explained the situation in more detail.

Stating that while the country’s economy is gradually recovering, the outlook remains uncertain due to growing fiscal pressures, a widening trade deficit and persistent poverty and food insecurity.

The report stated that these factors continue to strain households and hinder inclusive growth.

However, Afghanistan recorded its second consecutive year of growth in 2024, the World Bank stated, adding that the recovery was largely driven by the agriculture sector.

Manufacturing and services remained subdued due to an unfavorable business environment, persistent export barriers and declining foreign aid.

Modest gains in private consumption and real estate investment contributed to growth, the report stated, adding that rising imports widened the trade deficit, increasing external vulnerabilities.

At the same time, rapid population growth and the return of refugees continue to strain job creation and public service delivery, further deepening the fragility of the economy.

Deflation meanwhile persisted in 2024, with food prices having declined sharply. Non-food inflation remained stable. Persistent deflation continued in 2024,

Poverty, food insecurity, and malnutrition however remained pressing challenges and despite modest wage growth, high unemployment and restrictions on women continue to strain livelihoods, the report stated.

Early this year, 14.8 million people faced food shortages, while acute malnutrition – now affecting 4.7 million women and children – is worsening. The World Bank warned that without urgent action, human capital development will be further undermined.

Fiscal pressures meanwhile remained high as domestic revenue mobilization, though relatively strong, is insufficient to offset the sharp decline in aid.

The report also stated that exports declined in 2024, while imports surged – widening the trade deficit.

The increase in imports however was driven by rising industrial demand and substitution of domestic consumer goods.

The afghani (AFN) currency, which had appreciated significantly in 2023 due to strong foreign inflows stabilized with slight depreciation in 2024 but the banking sector remained fragile.

The World Bank reported that economic growth is expected to slow to 2.2 percent in 2025 amid aid disruptions, before gradually recovering to 2.5 percent in 2026–27.

The organization however warned that while Afghanistan’s youth remain a vital source of resilience and untapped potential, urgent action to expand job opportunities for them is needed.

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US and China reach deal to temporarily slash tariffs, easing slump fears

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The United States and China have agreed to temporarily slash reciprocal tariffs in a deal that surpassed expectations as the world’s two biggest economies seek to end a damaging trade war that has stoked fears of recession and roiled financial markets.

The U.S. will cut extra tariffs it imposed on Chinese imports in April this year to 30% from 145% and Chinese duties on U.S. imports will fall to 10% from 125%, the two sides said on Monday. The new measures are effective for 90 days, Reuters reported.

The dollar rose and stock markets lifted following the news, which helped allay concerns about a downturn triggered last month by U.S. President Donald Trump’s escalation of tariff measures aimed at narrowing the U.S. trade deficit.

“Both countries represented their national interest very well,” U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said after talks with Chinese officials in Geneva. “We both have an interest in balanced trade, the U.S. will continue moving towards that.”

Striking a conciliatory tone towards China, Bessent was speaking alongside U.S. Trade Representative Jamieson Greer after the weekend talks in Switzerland in which both sides hailed progress on narrowing differences.

“The consensus from both delegations this weekend is neither side wants a decoupling,” Bessent said. “And what had occurred with these very high tariffs … was the equivalent of an embargo, and neither side wants that. We do want trade.”

The tariff dispute had brought nearly $600 billion in two-way trade to a standstill, disrupting supply chains, sparking fears of stagflation and triggering some layoffs.

The Geneva meetings were the first face-to-face interactions between senior U.S. and Chinese economic officials since Trump returned to power and launched a global tariff blitz, imposing particularly hefty duties on China.

Bessent said the deal did not include sector-specific tariffs and that the U.S. would continue strategic rebalancing in areas including medicines, semiconductors and steel where it had identified supply chain vulnerabilities.

The accord went further than many analysts had expected following weeks of confrontational rhetoric on trade.

“This is better than I expected. I thought tariffs would be cut to somewhere around 50%,” said Zhiwei Zhang, chief economist at Pinpoint Asset Management in Hong Kong.

“Obviously, this is very positive news for economies in both countries and for the global economy, and makes investors much less concerned about the damage to global supply chains in the short term,” Zhang added.

REPRIEVE

Since taking office in January, Trump had hiked the tariffs paid by U.S. importers for goods from China to 145%, in addition to those he imposed on many Chinese goods during his first term and the duties levied by the Biden administration.

China hit back by putting export curbs on some rare earth elements, vital for U.S. manufacturers of weapons and electronic consumer goods, and raising tariffs on U.S. goods to 125%.

Shares in European firms hit by the trade war rallied after the deal. Shipping company Maersk was the biggest gainer in Europe, up more than 12%. It warned last week that container volumes between the U.S. and China had plunged due to the dispute.

Meanwhile, shares in luxury firms LVMH and Gucci-owner Kering were up 7.4% and 6.7% respectively.

U.S. planemaker Boeing did not respond to requests for comment on how the deal would affect deliveries of aircraft to Chinese customers. In April, it said it was looking to resell potentially dozens of planes locked out of China by tariffs.

Wall Street stock futures climbed as the talks boosted hopes a global recession might be averted.

Trump gave a positive reading of the talks before they had concluded, saying the two sides had negotiated “a total reset… in a friendly, but constructive, manner.”

The president levied the tariffs in part after declaring a national emergency over fentanyl entering the United States, and Greer said conversations over curbing the deadly opioid were “very constructive” though on a separate track.

U.S. and Chinese officials met over two days at the Swiss U.N. ambassador’s gated villa overlooking Lake Geneva. Greer said many of the most challenging issues were settled outside, sitting on patio furniture beneath the shade of a tall tree.

“Having this setting, as opposed to … a sterile hotel conference situation or conference rooms, I think, let us develop personal relationships with our counterparts and lead to the successful conclusion,” he said.

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Pakistan’s exports to Afghanistan rise by over 64% in 9 months

Overall exports to Afghanistan were recorded at $623.285 million during July-March (FY2024-25) against exports of $378.922 million during the same period last year. 

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Pakistan has reported that its export of goods and services to Afghanistan witnessed an increase of 64.48 percent during the first nine months of the fiscal year (2024-25) as compared to the exports of the corresponding period of last year.

According to the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), the overall exports to Afghanistan were recorded at $623.285 million during July-March (FY2024-25) against exports of $378.922 million during the same period last year. 

On a year-on-year basis, the exports to Afghanistan decreased by 45.54 percent from $55.907 million in March 2024, against the exports of $30.445 million in March 2025. 

On a month-on-month basis, the exports to Afghanistan also dipped by 15.37 percent during March 2025 as compared to the exports of $35.977 million in February 2025, the SBP data revealed. 

On the other hand, the imports from Afghanistan into the country during the months under review were recorded at $20.127 million against $6.438 million last year, showing an increase of 212.62 percent in July-March (2024-25). 

On a year-on-year basis, the imports from Afghanistan witnessed an increase of 99.79 percent, going up from $0.960 million in March 2024 against the imports of $1.918 million in March 2025. 

On a month-on-month basis, the imports from Afghanistan into the country also witnessed a decrease of 36.23 percent during March 2025, as compared to the imports of $3.008m during February 2025, according to the data.

 

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Chinese company keen to invest $50 million in automobile industry in Afghanistan

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Chinese automobile company Dongfeng has expressed an interest to invest $50 million in Afghanistan.

A representative of the company said in a meeting with Ahmadullah Zahid, Deputy Minister of Industry and Commerce, that the company wants to invest $50 million in the automobile manufacturing sector in Afghanistan in four phases over a period of three and a half years.

He added that with this investment, 2,000 vehicles will be manufactured per year.

Welcoming the company’s interest in investing in the country Ahmadullah Zahid, the Deputy Minister of Industry and Commerce, described Afghanistan as one of the safe and secure places for investment with favorable profits.

He assured the Chinese that all domestic and foreign investors will be treated equally and will be fully supported.

In the meeting, the representative of Dongfeng also emphasized that the company’s investment in Afghanistan will create jobs for 500 to 700 people in the country.

He said that the company’s products will include cars, trucks, ambulances, and buses.

 

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