The International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies (IFRC) warned Tuesday that an additional one million Afghans could be deported from Iran by the end of 2025, intensifying an already dire humanitarian crisis in Afghanistan and overwhelming an underfunded aid response.

According to the United Nations refugee agency (UNHCR), more than 1.2 million Afghans have been returned from Iran since the start of the year, with daily returns surging sharply in recent weeks—particularly after escalating tensions between Iran and Israel, which exchanged missile and drone strikes last month.

Speaking at a press briefing in Geneva, Sami Fakhouri, head of the IFRC Delegation for Afghanistan, said he witnessed firsthand the mass returns at Islam Qala, the main border crossing in Afghanistan’s western Herat province.

“We are anticipating that an additional one million people, possibly more, may return from Iran to Afghanistan by the end of this year,” Fakhouri said. “The majority didn’t have a say in coming back. They were put on buses and driven to the border.”

The forced returns are placing acute strain on Afghanistan’s border provinces, particularly in Herat and Nimroz, where thousands of returnees arrive daily—many without shelter, documentation, or family support. Aid workers say the flow of people has become nearly unmanageable.

Fakhouri warned that many returnees are now homeless, having fled Afghanistan years ago due to war, drought, or political persecution, and now returning to communities that no longer exist or are unable to support them.

The IFRC has appealed for 25 million Swiss francs ($31.4 million) to fund emergency support for returnees, including food, shelter, and health services at border points and in transit camps. As of this week, the appeal is only 10 percent funded, raising fears that vital aid operations may be scaled back.

“We are very concerned about how long we can maintain services without additional funding,” Fakhouri said.

The UNHCR also voiced alarm at the scale and speed of returns. Babar Baloch, spokesperson for the agency, said more than 50,000 Afghans crossed back from Iran on July 4 alone, underscoring the intensity of the current wave of deportations.

“Tens of thousands are arriving from Iran every day,” Baloch said. “The psychological scars are going to stay with Afghans who have been made to come back to the country in this way.”

Baloch also highlighted concerns over family separations, with many deported individuals unable to locate spouses or children after arriving in Afghanistan. Aid agencies say Iran frequently deports individuals without prior notice or the opportunity to arrange safe returns for entire families.

Iran’s crackdown on undocumented migrants comes amid growing domestic economic strain and rising anti-migrant sentiment, exacerbated by international sanctions, inflation, and security concerns following recent regional military escalations.

Iran has hosted millions of Afghan nationals over the past four decades, many of whom arrived during the Soviet occupation in the 1980s and later during the U.S.-led war. However, the government in Tehran has increased deportations sharply since 2023, citing internal pressures and national security risks.

Pakistan has also deported hundreds of thousands of Afghans in recent months, part of what human rights organizations describe as a regional pattern of forced returns that disproportionately affects vulnerable groups, including women, children, and ethnic minorities.