World
Israel’s endgame? No sign of post-war plan for Gaza
Israel is vowing to wipe out Hamas in a relentless onslaught on the Gaza Strip but has no obvious endgame in sight, with no clear plan for how to govern the ravaged Palestinian enclave even if it triumphs on the battlefield.
Codenamed “Operation Swords of Iron”, the military campaign will be unmatched in its ferocity and unlike anything Israel has carried out in Gaza in the past, according to eight regional and Western officials with knowledge of the conflict who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter, Reuters reported.
Israel has called up a record 360,000 reservists and has been bombarding the tiny enclave non-stop following Hamas’s assault on southern Israel on Oct. 7, which killed about 1,400 people, mostly civilians.
The immediate Israeli strategy, said three regional officials familiar with discussions between the U.S. and Middle Eastern leaders, is to destroy Gaza’s infrastructure, even at the cost of high civilian casualties, push the enclave’s people towards the Egyptian border and go after Hamas by blowing up the labyrinth of underground tunnels the group has built to conduct its operations.
Israeli officials have said that they don’t have a clear idea for what a post-war future might look like, though.
Some of U.S. President Joe Biden’s aides are concerned that while Israel may craft an effective plan to inflict lasting damage to Hamas, it has yet to formulate an exit strategy, a source in Washington familiar with the matter said.
Trips to Israel by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin this past week had stressed the need to focus on the post-war plan for Gaza, the source added.
Arab officials are also alarmed that Israel hasn’t set out a clear plan for the future of the enclave, ruled by Hamas since 2006 and home to 2.3 million people.
“Israel doesn’t have an endgame for Gaza. Their strategy is to drop thousands of bombs, destroy everything and go in, but then what? They have no exit strategy for the day after,” said one regional security source.
An Israeli invasion has yet to start, but Gaza authorities say 3,500 Palestinians have already been killed by the aerial bombardment, around a third of them children – a larger death toll than in any previous conflict between Hamas and Israel.
Biden, on a visit to Israel on Wednesday, told Israelis that justice needed to be served to Hamas, though he cautioned that after the 9/11 attacks on New York, the U.S. had made mistakes.
The “vast majority of Palestinians are not Hamas”, he said. “Hamas does not represent the Palestinian people.”
Aaron David Miller, a Middle East expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Biden’s visit would have given him a chance to press Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu to think through issues such as the proportional use of force and the longer-term plans for Gaza before any invasion.
City of tunnels
Israeli officials, including Netanyahu, have said they will wipe out Hamas in retribution for the Oct. 7 killings, the deadliest militant attack in Israel’s 75-year-old history.
What will follow is less defined.
“We are of course thinking and dealing with this, and this involves assessments and includes the National Security Council, the military and others about the end situation,” Israeli National Security Council director Tzachi Hanegbi told reporters on Tuesday. “We don’t know what this will be with certainty.”
“But what we do know is what there will not be,” he said, referring to Israel’s stated aim to eradicate Hamas.
This might be easier said than done.
“It’s an underground city of tunnels that make the Vietcong tunnels look like child’s play,” said the first regional source, referring to the Communist guerrilla force that defied U.S. troops in Vietnam. “They’re not going to end Hamas with tanks and firepower.”
Two regional military experts told Reuters that Hamas’s armed wing, the Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades, has mobilized for an invasion, setting up anti-tank mines and booby-trapped explosive devices to ambush troops.
Israel’s coming offensive is set to be much bigger than past Gaza operations that Israeli officials had previously referred to as “mowing the grass”, degrading Hamas’s military capabilities but not eliminating it.
Israel has fought three previous conflicts with Hamas, in 2008-9, 2012 and 2014, and launched limited land invasions during two of those campaigns, but unlike today, Israel’s leaders never vowed to destroy Hamas once and for all.
In those three confrontations, just under 4,000 Palestinians and fewer than 100 Israelis died.
There is less optimism in Washington, though, that Israel will be able to completely destroy Hamas and U.S. officials see little chance that Israel will want to hold on to any Gaza territory or re-occupy it, the U.S. source said.
A more likely scenario, the person said, would be for Israeli forces to kill or capture as many Hamas members as they can, blow up tunnels and rocket workshops, then after Israeli casualties mount, look for a way to declare victory and exit, Reuters reported.
Fear grows in region
The fear across the region is that the war will blow up beyond the confines of Gaza, with Lebanon’s Hezbollah and its backer Iran opening major new fronts in support of Hamas.
Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian warned of a possible “preemptive” action against Israel if it carried out its invasion of Gaza. He said last weekend that Iran would not watch from the sidelines if the U.S. failed to restrain Israel.
Arab leaders have told Blinken, who has been criss-crossing the region this past week, that while they condemn Hamas’s attack on Israel, they oppose collective punishment against ordinary Palestinians, which they fear will trigger regional unrest.
Popular anger will ratchet up across the region when the body count rises, they said.
Washington has sent an aircraft carrier strike group to the eastern Mediterranean and is concerned that Hezbollah might join the battle from Israel’s northern border. There has been no sign, however, that the U.S. military would then move from a deterrent posture to direct involvement.
The regional sources said Washington was proposing to re-energise the Palestinian Authority (PA), which lost control of Gaza to Hamas in 2007, although there is huge doubt whether the PA or any other authority would be able to govern the coastal enclave should Hamas be driven out.
In the meantime, calls for the creation of humanitarian corridors within Gaza and escape routes for Palestinian civilians have drawn a strong reaction from Arab neighbors.
They fear an Israeli invasion will spark a new permanent mass wave of displacement, a replay of the 1948 Israeli war of independence and 1967 Arab-Israeli war. Millions of Palestinians who were forced to flee then have remained stranded as refugees in the countries that hosted them.
World
Israel’s Netanyahu expected to press Trump over Iran diplomacy
Iran says its nuclear activities are for peaceful purposes, while the U.S. and Israel have accused it of past efforts to develop nuclear weapons.
President Donald Trump will host Benjamin Netanyahu at the White House on Wednesday where the Israeli prime minister is expected to press him to widen U.S. talks with Iran to include curbs on Tehran’s missile arsenal and other security threats that go beyond its nuclear program, Reuters reported.
In his seventh meeting with Trump since the president returned to office nearly 13 months ago, Netanyahu will be looking to influence the next round of U.S. discussions with Iran following nuclear negotiations held in Oman last Friday amid heightened Middle East tensions.
Trump has threatened to carry out strikes on Iran if an agreement is not reached, and Tehran has responded with vows to retaliate, fueling fears of a wider regional war. He has repeatedly voiced support for a secure Israel, long a close U.S. ally in the Middle East and an arch-foe of Iran.
The president repeated his warning in a series of media interviews on Tuesday, saying while he believes Iran wants to make a deal, he would do “something very tough” if they refused. He told Axios he was considering sending a second aircraft carrier strike group as part of a massive buildup of U.S. forces near Iran, read the report.
Israel is concerned that the U.S. might pursue a narrow nuclear deal that does not include limitations on Iran’s ballistic missile program or an end to Iranian support for armed proxy groups such as Hamas and Hezbollah, according to people familiar with the matter.
“I will present to the president our perceptions of the principles in the negotiations,” Netanyahu told reporters before departing for the U.S.
The two men could also discuss potential military action in the event that U.S.-Iran diplomacy fails, according to one of the sources.
After arriving in Washington on Tuesday night, Netanyahu met U.S. special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, who led the U.S. team at the Iran talks, according to a post on X by Israel’s ambassador to Washington, Michael Leiter.
Also on the agenda will be Gaza, with Trump looking to push ahead with a ceasefire agreement he helped to broker. Progress on his 20-point plan to end the war and rebuild the shattered Palestinian enclave has stalled with wide gaps remaining over complex steps it envisions, including Hamas disarming as Israeli troops withdraw in phases.
“We continue to work closely with our ally Israel to implement President Trump’s historic Gaza peace agreement and to strengthen regional security,” White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly said when asked about U.S. priorities for the meeting.
Netanyahu’s visit, originally scheduled for February 18, was brought forward amid renewed U.S. engagement with Iran. Both sides at last week’s Oman meeting said it was positive and further talks were expected soon.
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said last week, ahead of the Oman meeting, that the talks would have to include the range of Iran’s missiles, its support for proxy groups and its treatment of its own people.
Iran, which has ruled out restrictions on its missiles, said Friday’s discussions had been limited to nuclear issues, Reuters reported.
Trump has been vague about broadening the negotiations. He was quoted as telling Axios on Tuesday that it was a “no-brainer” for any deal to cover Iran’s nuclear program, but that he also thought it possible to address its missile stockpiles.
Iran says its nuclear activities are for peaceful purposes, while the U.S. and Israel have accused it of past efforts to develop nuclear weapons.
Last June, the U.S. joined Israel’s strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities during a 12-day war.
Israel also heavily damaged Iran’s air defenses and missile arsenal. But, according to two Israeli officials, there have been signs of a push to restore those capabilities, which Israel sees as a strategic threat.
Trump had threatened last month to intervene militarily during a bloody crackdown on nationwide anti-government protests in Iran, but ultimately held off.
Tehran’s regional sway has been weakened by Israel’s attack in June as well as blows to Iranian proxies – from Hamas in Gaza to Hezbollah in Lebanon, the Houthis in Yemen and militias in Iraq – and by the ousting of Iran’s close ally, former Syrian President Bashar al-Assad.
But Israel has been wary of its foes rebuilding after they suffered heavy losses in the multi-front war sparked by Hamas’ October 2023 cross-border attack on southern Israel.
While Trump and Netanyahu have mostly been in sync and the U.S. remains Israel’s main arms supplier, Wednesday’s discussions have the potential for tensions to surface.
Part of Trump’s Gaza plan holds out the prospect for eventual Palestinian statehood – which Netanyahu and his coalition, the most far-right in Israel’s history, have long resisted.
Netanyahu’s security cabinet on Sunday authorized steps that would make it easier for Israeli settlers in the occupied West Bank to buy land while granting Israel broader powers in what the Palestinians see as the heartland of a future state. The Israeli decision drew international condemnation, read the report.
“I am against annexation,” Trump was quoted as telling Axios, reiterating his stance on the issue. “We have enough things to think about now.”
World
Hong Kong tycoon Jimmy Lai sentenced to 20 years in jail in national security trial
Hong Kong’s most prominent media tycoon Jimmy Lai was sentenced on Monday to a total of 20 years in jail on national security charges comprising two counts of conspiracy to collude with foreign forces and one of publishing seditious materials.
The sentence ends a legal saga spanning almost five years, and Hong Kong’s most high-profile national security hearing. Lai, founder of the now-shuttered Apple Daily newspaper, was first arrested in August 2020 and convicted last year, Reuters reported.
Lai’s sentence of 20 years was within the most severe penalty “band” of 10 years to life imprisonment for offences of a “grave nature”.
The Hong Kong court said Lai’s sentence was enhanced by the fact that he was “mastermind” and driving force behind foreign collusion conspiracies.
The 78-year-old, a British citizen, has denied all the charges against him, saying in court he is a “political prisoner” facing persecution from Beijing.
Lai’s plight has been criticised by global leaders, opens new tab including U.S. President Donald Trump and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, spotlighting a years-long national security crackdown in the China-ruled Asian financial hub, following mass pro-democracy protests in 2019.
“The rule of law has been completely shattered in Hong Kong. Today’s egregious decision is the final nail in the coffin for freedom of the press in Hong Kong,” said Jodie Ginsberg, CEO of the Committee to Protect Journalism.
“The international community must step up its pressure to free Jimmy Lai if we want press freedom to be respected anywhere in the world.”
Lai arrived to court in a white jacket, with hands held together in a praying gesture as he smiled and waved at supporters.
The case has drawn calls for the long-standing critic of the Chinese Communist Party, who friends and supporters say is in frail health, to be freed.
“The harsh 20-year sentence against 78-year-old Jimmy Lai is effectively a death sentence,” said Elaine Pearson, Asia Director of Human Rghts Watch. “A sentence of this magnitude is both cruel and profoundly unjust.”
Dozens of Lai’s supporters queued for several days to secure a spot in the courtroom, with scores of police officers, sniffer dogs and police vehicles including an armoured truck and a bomb disposal van deployed around the area.
“I feel that Mr. Lai is the conscience of Hong Kong,” said a man named Sum, 64, who was in the queue.
“He speaks up for Hong Kong people, and even for many wrongful cases in mainland China and for the development of democracy. So I feel that spending a few days of my own freedom sleeping out here is better than seeing him locked up inside.”
Starmer raised the case of Lai, who holds British citizenship, in detail during a tête-à-tête with Chinese leader Xi Jinping last month in Beijing’s Great Hall of the People, according to people briefed on the discussions. Britain’s national security adviser, Jonathan Powell, and China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, were also present.
“I raised the case of Jimmy Lai and called for his release,” Starmer told the UK parliament after his trip.
Trump too, raised Lai’s case with Xi during a meeting last October. Several Western diplomats told Reuters that negotiations to free Lai would likely begin in earnest after he is sentenced, and depending on whether Lai will appeal.
LIFE IN PRISON?
Lai’s family, lawyer, supporters and former colleagues have warned that he could die in prison as he suffers from health conditions including heart palpitations and high blood pressure.
Besides Lai, six former senior Apple Daily staffers, an activist and a paralegal will also be sentenced.
“Jimmy Lai’s trial has been nothing but a charade from the start and shows total contempt for Hong Kong laws that are supposed to protect press freedom,” said the Committee to Protect Journalists’ Asia-Pacific Director Beh Lih Yi.
Beijing, however, says Lai has received a fair trial and all are treated equally under the national security law that has restored order to the city.
World
Trump signs order threatening tariffs on nations doing business with Iran
U.S. President Donald Trump signed an executive order on Friday that may impose a 25% tariff on countries that do business with Iran.
The order comes as tensions between Iran and U.S. continue to simmer even as the two countries engaged in talks this week.
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