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Israel’s endgame? No sign of post-war plan for Gaza

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Israel is vowing to wipe out Hamas in a relentless onslaught on the Gaza Strip but has no obvious endgame in sight, with no clear plan for how to govern the ravaged Palestinian enclave even if it triumphs on the battlefield.

Codenamed “Operation Swords of Iron”, the military campaign will be unmatched in its ferocity and unlike anything Israel has carried out in Gaza in the past, according to eight regional and Western officials with knowledge of the conflict who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter, Reuters reported.

Israel has called up a record 360,000 reservists and has been bombarding the tiny enclave non-stop following Hamas’s assault on southern Israel on Oct. 7, which killed about 1,400 people, mostly civilians.

The immediate Israeli strategy, said three regional officials familiar with discussions between the U.S. and Middle Eastern leaders, is to destroy Gaza’s infrastructure, even at the cost of high civilian casualties, push the enclave’s people towards the Egyptian border and go after Hamas by blowing up the labyrinth of underground tunnels the group has built to conduct its operations.

Israeli officials have said that they don’t have a clear idea for what a post-war future might look like, though.

Some of U.S. President Joe Biden’s aides are concerned that while Israel may craft an effective plan to inflict lasting damage to Hamas, it has yet to formulate an exit strategy, a source in Washington familiar with the matter said.

Trips to Israel by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin this past week had stressed the need to focus on the post-war plan for Gaza, the source added.

Arab officials are also alarmed that Israel hasn’t set out a clear plan for the future of the enclave, ruled by Hamas since 2006 and home to 2.3 million people.

“Israel doesn’t have an endgame for Gaza. Their strategy is to drop thousands of bombs, destroy everything and go in, but then what? They have no exit strategy for the day after,” said one regional security source.

An Israeli invasion has yet to start, but Gaza authorities say 3,500 Palestinians have already been killed by the aerial bombardment, around a third of them children – a larger death toll than in any previous conflict between Hamas and Israel.

Biden, on a visit to Israel on Wednesday, told Israelis that justice needed to be served to Hamas, though he cautioned that after the 9/11 attacks on New York, the U.S. had made mistakes.

The “vast majority of Palestinians are not Hamas”, he said. “Hamas does not represent the Palestinian people.”

Aaron David Miller, a Middle East expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Biden’s visit would have given him a chance to press Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu to think through issues such as the proportional use of force and the longer-term plans for Gaza before any invasion.

City of tunnels

Israeli officials, including Netanyahu, have said they will wipe out Hamas in retribution for the Oct. 7 killings, the deadliest militant attack in Israel’s 75-year-old history.

What will follow is less defined.

“We are of course thinking and dealing with this, and this involves assessments and includes the National Security Council, the military and others about the end situation,” Israeli National Security Council director Tzachi Hanegbi told reporters on Tuesday. “We don’t know what this will be with certainty.”

“But what we do know is what there will not be,” he said, referring to Israel’s stated aim to eradicate Hamas.

This might be easier said than done.

“It’s an underground city of tunnels that make the Vietcong tunnels look like child’s play,” said the first regional source, referring to the Communist guerrilla force that defied U.S. troops in Vietnam. “They’re not going to end Hamas with tanks and firepower.”

Two regional military experts told Reuters that Hamas’s armed wing, the Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades, has mobilized for an invasion, setting up anti-tank mines and booby-trapped explosive devices to ambush troops.

Israel’s coming offensive is set to be much bigger than past Gaza operations that Israeli officials had previously referred to as “mowing the grass”, degrading Hamas’s military capabilities but not eliminating it.

Israel has fought three previous conflicts with Hamas, in 2008-9, 2012 and 2014, and launched limited land invasions during two of those campaigns, but unlike today, Israel’s leaders never vowed to destroy Hamas once and for all.

In those three confrontations, just under 4,000 Palestinians and fewer than 100 Israelis died.

There is less optimism in Washington, though, that Israel will be able to completely destroy Hamas and U.S. officials see little chance that Israel will want to hold on to any Gaza territory or re-occupy it, the U.S. source said.

A more likely scenario, the person said, would be for Israeli forces to kill or capture as many Hamas members as they can, blow up tunnels and rocket workshops, then after Israeli casualties mount, look for a way to declare victory and exit, Reuters reported.

Fear grows in region

The fear across the region is that the war will blow up beyond the confines of Gaza, with Lebanon’s Hezbollah and its backer Iran opening major new fronts in support of Hamas.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian warned of a possible “preemptive” action against Israel if it carried out its invasion of Gaza. He said last weekend that Iran would not watch from the sidelines if the U.S. failed to restrain Israel.

Arab leaders have told Blinken, who has been criss-crossing the region this past week, that while they condemn Hamas’s attack on Israel, they oppose collective punishment against ordinary Palestinians, which they fear will trigger regional unrest.

Popular anger will ratchet up across the region when the body count rises, they said.

Washington has sent an aircraft carrier strike group to the eastern Mediterranean and is concerned that Hezbollah might join the battle from Israel’s northern border. There has been no sign, however, that the U.S. military would then move from a deterrent posture to direct involvement.

The regional sources said Washington was proposing to re-energise the Palestinian Authority (PA), which lost control of Gaza to Hamas in 2007, although there is huge doubt whether the PA or any other authority would be able to govern the coastal enclave should Hamas be driven out.

In the meantime, calls for the creation of humanitarian corridors within Gaza and escape routes for Palestinian civilians have drawn a strong reaction from Arab neighbors.

They fear an Israeli invasion will spark a new permanent mass wave of displacement, a replay of the 1948 Israeli war of independence and 1967 Arab-Israeli war. Millions of Palestinians who were forced to flee then have remained stranded as refugees in the countries that hosted them.

World

Putin visits India for first time since 2022 Ukraine invasion

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Russian President Vladimir Putin will begin a two-day trip to India on Thursday, his first since launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as Moscow seeks to reinforce defense and trade ties with New Delhi amid rising pressure from the Trump administration over India’s continued purchases of Russian oil.

Putin will travel with a high-level delegation that includes Defense Minister Andrei Belousov.
Media reports suggest the two countries may revisit a long-delayed fighter jet agreement during the visit.

India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to host Putin for a private dinner on Thursday, followed by a summit meeting and business engagements on Friday.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia’s S-400 air defense systems would be a “significant” point of discussion, underscoring the central role of military cooperation in the relationship. India has so far received three of the five S-400 units ordered in 2018, with remaining shipments delayed by Western sanctions and supply disruptions linked to the war in Ukraine.

Reports also indicate that Moscow may propose jointly manufacturing its Su-57 fighter jet in India. Russia remains a major source of India’s defense equipment, though its share of India’s arms imports has declined as New Delhi expands domestic production.

The visit comes shortly after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on most Indian exports, arguing that India’s reliance on discounted Russian crude indirectly supports Moscow’s war effort. India has emerged as a major buyer of Russian oil since 2022, saving billions of dollars, though it has recently scaled back purchases as Washington tightened sanctions on producers such as Rosneft and Lukoil.

Indian officials worry that new defense or energy deals with Moscow could trigger additional retaliation from Washington at a sensitive moment in U.S.–India trade talks.

Speaking to Indian media, Peskov dismissed concerns over U.S. measures. “What matters to us is maintaining and increasing our business with India without interference,” he said.

Analysts say neither country is likely to abandon the relationship. Even if India further reduces its intake of Russian crude, Moscow remains indispensable as a supplier of parts for India’s large stock of Russian-made military platforms.

“There may be some reduction in energy purchases under U.S. pressure,” said Nandan Unnikrishnan of the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi, “but the overall direction of the ties will be maintained because both countries need each other at the strategic level.”

Bilateral trade reached $68.7 billion in 2024–25, nearly six times the pre-pandemic figure, though Indian exports accounted for less than $5 billion. New Delhi has been pressing Moscow to open more space for Indian pharmaceuticals, automobiles and service-sector companies.

Analysts say the visit gives both leaders an opportunity to assess the geopolitical landscape, including the war in Ukraine, and signal continuity in the partnership.

“For India, the optics underscore its commitment to strategic autonomy, and for Putin—who rarely travels—the trip highlights the importance he places on the relationship,” said Harsh V. Pant of King’s College London.

A senior Indian Foreign Ministry official, speaking anonymously, described Russia–India ties as among the “most stable relationships in modern times,” urging observers to view the visit in its bilateral context.

“This is just another annual summit between two countries with a steady relationship,” the official said.

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World

Russia says no Ukraine compromise after five-hour Putin meeting with Trump envoys

The late-night meeting at the Kremlin brought together Putin, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner.

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Russia and the United States failed to reach a compromise on a potential peace deal to end the war in Ukraine following five hours of talks between President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump’s top envoys, the Kremlin said on Wednesday.

The late-night meeting at the Kremlin brought together Putin, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. The discussions stretched past midnight but produced no breakthrough, according to Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov.

“Compromises have not yet been found,” Ushakov told reporters. “There is still a lot of work to be done.”

He said Putin reacted negatively to some U.S. proposals and that the two sides remained divided on key issues, including the “territorial problem” — Russia’s claim to the entire Donbas region.

Ukraine continues to control roughly 5,000 square kilometers of territory that Moscow asserts as its own, although almost all countries recognize Donbas as part of Ukraine.

Witkoff later visited the U.S. Embassy in Moscow to brief the White House, Ushakov said.

While describing the talks as “constructive,” Ushakov stressed that no meeting between Putin and Trump is planned at this stage. He added that both sides had agreed not to disclose further details of the discussions.

Trump, speaking earlier in Washington, called the conflict “a mess” and said his envoys were in Moscow to explore whether a settlement was possible. He cited casualty estimates of 25,000 to 30,000 per month in the ongoing war.

Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, triggering the most severe confrontation between Moscow and the West since the Cold War.

Concerns Among European Allies

The talks come amid unease in European capitals after a leaked set of 28 draft U.S. peace proposals appeared in November, prompting fears that Washington was leaning too far toward Moscow’s demands. European powers subsequently drafted counter-proposals, and U.S. and Ukrainian officials said they had produced an “updated and refined peace framework” during follow-up discussions in Geneva.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, speaking in Dublin, said he feared the U.S. might lose interest in the peace process and warned against negotiations taking place “behind Ukraine’s back.”

“There will be no easy solutions,” he said. “It is important that everything is fair and open.”

Just hours before meeting Witkoff and Kushner, Putin said Russia did not seek war with Europe but warned that any conflict would end “so swiftly” that negotiations afterward would be meaningless. He also threatened to cut Ukraine’s access to the sea in response to recent drone attacks on Russia’s “shadow fleet” in the Black Sea.

Ukraine’s foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, said Putin’s remarks showed he was not prepared to end the war.

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Pope Leo: Palestinian state ‘only’ solution to Israeli conflict

Leo, who usually prefers using careful, diplomatic language, ramped up criticism earlier this year of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza.

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Pope Leo said on Sunday that the only solution in the decades-long conflict between Israel and the Palestinian people must include a Palestinian state, reaffirming the Vatican’s position.

“We all know that at this time Israel still does not accept that solution, but we see it as the only solution,” Leo, the first U.S. pope, told journalists on a flight from Turkey to Lebanon during his first in-flight press conference.

“We are also friends with Israel and we are seeking to be a mediating voice between the two parties that might help them close in on a solution with justice for everyone,” added the pope, speaking in Italian.

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reaffirmed opposition to a Palestinian state after even its biggest ally the U.S. indicated support for Palestinian independence.

Leo spoke in a brief eight-minute press conference focused on his visit to Turkey, which he visited from Thursday to Sunday on his first overseas trip since election in May as leader of the 1.4 billion-member Catholic Church.

The pope said he and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan discussed both the Israel-Palestinian and Ukraine-Russia conflicts. Turkey has an important role to play helping end both wars, Leo said.

During his visit to Turkey, the pope warned that humanity’s future was at risk because of the world’s unusual number of bloody conflicts and condemned violence in the name of religion.

Leo, who usually prefers using careful, diplomatic language, ramped up criticism earlier this year of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza.

Turkey is predominantly Muslim but is also home to Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew, spiritual leader of the world’s 260 million Orthodox Christians.

Leo praised Turkey as an example of religious co-existence.

“People of different religions are able to live in peace,” said the pope. “That is one example of what I think we all would be looking for throughout the world.”

Leo is visiting Lebanon until Tuesday, when he returns to Rome.

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