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Israel’s endgame? No sign of post-war plan for Gaza

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Israel is vowing to wipe out Hamas in a relentless onslaught on the Gaza Strip but has no obvious endgame in sight, with no clear plan for how to govern the ravaged Palestinian enclave even if it triumphs on the battlefield.

Codenamed “Operation Swords of Iron”, the military campaign will be unmatched in its ferocity and unlike anything Israel has carried out in Gaza in the past, according to eight regional and Western officials with knowledge of the conflict who declined to be named due to the sensitivity of the matter, Reuters reported.

Israel has called up a record 360,000 reservists and has been bombarding the tiny enclave non-stop following Hamas’s assault on southern Israel on Oct. 7, which killed about 1,400 people, mostly civilians.

The immediate Israeli strategy, said three regional officials familiar with discussions between the U.S. and Middle Eastern leaders, is to destroy Gaza’s infrastructure, even at the cost of high civilian casualties, push the enclave’s people towards the Egyptian border and go after Hamas by blowing up the labyrinth of underground tunnels the group has built to conduct its operations.

Israeli officials have said that they don’t have a clear idea for what a post-war future might look like, though.

Some of U.S. President Joe Biden’s aides are concerned that while Israel may craft an effective plan to inflict lasting damage to Hamas, it has yet to formulate an exit strategy, a source in Washington familiar with the matter said.

Trips to Israel by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin this past week had stressed the need to focus on the post-war plan for Gaza, the source added.

Arab officials are also alarmed that Israel hasn’t set out a clear plan for the future of the enclave, ruled by Hamas since 2006 and home to 2.3 million people.

“Israel doesn’t have an endgame for Gaza. Their strategy is to drop thousands of bombs, destroy everything and go in, but then what? They have no exit strategy for the day after,” said one regional security source.

An Israeli invasion has yet to start, but Gaza authorities say 3,500 Palestinians have already been killed by the aerial bombardment, around a third of them children – a larger death toll than in any previous conflict between Hamas and Israel.

Biden, on a visit to Israel on Wednesday, told Israelis that justice needed to be served to Hamas, though he cautioned that after the 9/11 attacks on New York, the U.S. had made mistakes.

The “vast majority of Palestinians are not Hamas”, he said. “Hamas does not represent the Palestinian people.”

Aaron David Miller, a Middle East expert at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said Biden’s visit would have given him a chance to press Israeli leader Benjamin Netanyahu to think through issues such as the proportional use of force and the longer-term plans for Gaza before any invasion.

City of tunnels

Israeli officials, including Netanyahu, have said they will wipe out Hamas in retribution for the Oct. 7 killings, the deadliest militant attack in Israel’s 75-year-old history.

What will follow is less defined.

“We are of course thinking and dealing with this, and this involves assessments and includes the National Security Council, the military and others about the end situation,” Israeli National Security Council director Tzachi Hanegbi told reporters on Tuesday. “We don’t know what this will be with certainty.”

“But what we do know is what there will not be,” he said, referring to Israel’s stated aim to eradicate Hamas.

This might be easier said than done.

“It’s an underground city of tunnels that make the Vietcong tunnels look like child’s play,” said the first regional source, referring to the Communist guerrilla force that defied U.S. troops in Vietnam. “They’re not going to end Hamas with tanks and firepower.”

Two regional military experts told Reuters that Hamas’s armed wing, the Ezzedine al-Qassam Brigades, has mobilized for an invasion, setting up anti-tank mines and booby-trapped explosive devices to ambush troops.

Israel’s coming offensive is set to be much bigger than past Gaza operations that Israeli officials had previously referred to as “mowing the grass”, degrading Hamas’s military capabilities but not eliminating it.

Israel has fought three previous conflicts with Hamas, in 2008-9, 2012 and 2014, and launched limited land invasions during two of those campaigns, but unlike today, Israel’s leaders never vowed to destroy Hamas once and for all.

In those three confrontations, just under 4,000 Palestinians and fewer than 100 Israelis died.

There is less optimism in Washington, though, that Israel will be able to completely destroy Hamas and U.S. officials see little chance that Israel will want to hold on to any Gaza territory or re-occupy it, the U.S. source said.

A more likely scenario, the person said, would be for Israeli forces to kill or capture as many Hamas members as they can, blow up tunnels and rocket workshops, then after Israeli casualties mount, look for a way to declare victory and exit, Reuters reported.

Fear grows in region

The fear across the region is that the war will blow up beyond the confines of Gaza, with Lebanon’s Hezbollah and its backer Iran opening major new fronts in support of Hamas.

Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian warned of a possible “preemptive” action against Israel if it carried out its invasion of Gaza. He said last weekend that Iran would not watch from the sidelines if the U.S. failed to restrain Israel.

Arab leaders have told Blinken, who has been criss-crossing the region this past week, that while they condemn Hamas’s attack on Israel, they oppose collective punishment against ordinary Palestinians, which they fear will trigger regional unrest.

Popular anger will ratchet up across the region when the body count rises, they said.

Washington has sent an aircraft carrier strike group to the eastern Mediterranean and is concerned that Hezbollah might join the battle from Israel’s northern border. There has been no sign, however, that the U.S. military would then move from a deterrent posture to direct involvement.

The regional sources said Washington was proposing to re-energise the Palestinian Authority (PA), which lost control of Gaza to Hamas in 2007, although there is huge doubt whether the PA or any other authority would be able to govern the coastal enclave should Hamas be driven out.

In the meantime, calls for the creation of humanitarian corridors within Gaza and escape routes for Palestinian civilians have drawn a strong reaction from Arab neighbors.

They fear an Israeli invasion will spark a new permanent mass wave of displacement, a replay of the 1948 Israeli war of independence and 1967 Arab-Israeli war. Millions of Palestinians who were forced to flee then have remained stranded as refugees in the countries that hosted them.

World

EU leaders agree joint borrowing to fund Ukraine, setting aside plan to use Russian frozen assets

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European Union leaders decided on Friday to borrow cash to fund Ukraine’s defence against Russia for the next two years rather than use frozen Russian assets, sidestepping divisions over an unprecedented plan to finance Kyiv with Russian sovereign cash.

“Today we approved a decision to provide 90 billion euros to Ukraine,” EU summit chairman Antonio Costa told a news conference early on Friday morning after hours of talks among the leaders in Brussels, Reuters reported. “As a matter of urgency, we will provide a loan backed by the European Union budget.”

The leaders also gave the European Commission a mandate to keep working on a so-called reparations loan based on Russian immobilised assets but that option proved unworkable for now, above all due to resistance from Belgium, where the bulk of the assets is held.

The idea of EU borrowing initially seemed unworkable as it requires unanimity and Hungary’s Russia-friendly Prime Minister Viktor Orban had opposed it. But Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic agreed to let the scheme go ahead as long as it did not impact them financially.

The EU leaders said Russian assets, totalling 210 billion euros in the EU, will remain frozen until Moscow pays war reparations to Ukraine. If Moscow ever takes such a step, Ukraine could then use they money to pay back the loan.

USE OF RUSSIAN ASSETS TO COMPLEX AT THIS STAGE

“This is good news for Ukraine and bad news for Russia and this was our intention,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said.

The stakes for finding money for Kyiv were high because without the EU’s financial help, Ukraine would run out of money in the second quarter of next year and most likely lose the war to Russia, which the EU fears would bring closer the threat of Russian aggression against the bloc.

The decision follows hours of discussions among leaders on the technical details of an unprecedented loan based on the frozen Russian assets, which turned out to be too complex or politically demanding to resolve at this stage.

The main difficulty was providing Belgium, where 185 billion euros of the total Russian assets in Europe are held, with sufficient guarantees against financial and legal risks from potential Russian retaliation for the release of the money to Ukraine.

“There were so many questions on the Reparations Loan, we had to go to Plan B. Rationality has prevailed,” Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever told a news conference. “The EU has avoided chaos and division and remained united,” he said.

HUNGARY SCORES A WIN

With public finances across the EU already strained by high debt levels, the European Commission had proposed using the Russian assets for a loan to Kyiv or joint borrowing against the EU budget.

Using the latter option allowed Orban to claim a diplomatic victory.

“Orban got what he wanted: no reparation loan. And EU action without participation of Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia,” one EU diplomat said.

‘CAN’T AFFORD TO FAIL’

Several EU leaders arriving at the summit said it was imperative they find a solution to keep Ukraine financed and fighting for the next two years. They were also keen to show European countries’ strength and resolve after U.S. President Donald Trump last week called them “weak”.

“We just can’t afford to fail,” EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who took part in the summit, urged the bloc to agree to use the Russian assets to provide the funds he said would allow Ukraine to keep fighting.

“The decision now on the table – the decision to fully use Russian assets to defend against Russian aggression – is one of the clearest and most morally justified decisions that could ever be made,” he said.

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World

US readies new Russia sanctions if Putin rejects peace deal, Bloomberg News reports

A State Department spokesperson told Reuters it does not preview sanctions.

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The United States is preparing a further round of sanctions targeting Russia’s energy sector to increase pressure on Moscow should it reject a peace deal with Ukraine, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.

A White House official told Reuters that U.S. President Donald Trump had made no new decisions regarding Russian sanctions.

 “It is the role of agencies to prepare options for the president to execute,” the official said.

Bloomberg had reported the U.S. was considering options including targeting vessels in what is known as Russia’s shadow fleet of tankers used to transport exported oil, as well as traders who facilitate such transactions.

The new measures could be announced as early as this week, the report said, adding that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent discussed the move with a group of European ambassadors this week.

“It is explicitly false to conclude any decisions have been made regarding future sanctions against Russia. As we have said for months, all options remain on the table in support of President Trump’s tireless efforts to stop the senseless killing, and to achieving a lasting, durable peace,” a U.S. Treasury Department spokesperson said.

A State Department spokesperson told Reuters it does not preview sanctions.

Asked about the Bloomberg article, the Kremlin said it had not seen the report but that any sanctions harm efforts to mend U.S.-Russia relations.

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World

Trump adds seven countries, including Syria, to full travel ban list

The White House cited visa overstay rates for Syria in its justification for the ban.

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U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday expanded a list of countries subject to a full travel ban, prohibiting citizens from an additional seven countries, including Syria, from entering the United States.

The White House said in a statement that Trump signed a proclamation “expanding and strengthening entry restrictions on nationals from countries with demonstrated, persistent, and severe deficiencies in screening, vetting, and information-sharing to protect the Nation from national security and public safety threats.”

Tuesday’s move banned citizens from Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, South Sudan, Syria and those holding Palestinian Authority-issued travel documents. The action also imposes a full ban on Laos and Sierra Leone, which had previously only been subject to partial restrictions.

The White House said the expanded ban goes into effect on January 1.

The action comes despite Trump’s vow to do everything he could to make Syria successful after landmark talks in November with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former al Qaeda commander who until recently was sanctioned by Washington as a foreign terrorist.

Trump has backed Sharaa, whose visit capped a stunning year for the rebel-turned-ruler who toppled longtime autocratic leader Bashar al-Assad and has since traveled the world trying to depict himself as a moderate leader who wants to unify his war-ravaged nation and end its decades of international isolation.

But in a post on his Truth Social platform on Saturday, Trump vowed “very serious retaliation” after the U.S. military said two U.S. Army soldiers and a civilian interpreter were killed in Syria by a suspected Islamic State attacker who targeted a convoy of American and Syrian forces before being shot dead. He described the incident in remarks to reporters as a “terrible” attack.

The White House cited visa overstay rates for Syria in its justification for the ban.

“Syria is emerging from a protracted period of civil unrest and internal strife. While the country is working to address its security challenges in close coordination with the United States, Syria still lacks an adequate central authority for issuing passports or civil documents and does not have appropriate screening and vetting measures,” the White House said.

Trump signed a proclamation in June banning the citizens of 12 countries from entering the United States and restricting those from seven others, saying it was needed to protect against “foreign terrorists” and other security threats. The bans apply to both immigrants and non-immigrants, such as tourists, students and business travelers.

The travel ban remains on those twelve countries, the White House said.

Trump also added partial restrictions and entry limitations on an additional 15 countries, including Nigeria, which is under scrutiny from Trump, who in early November threatened military action over the treatment of Christians in the country.

Nigeria says claims that Christians face persecution misrepresent a complex security situation and do not take into account efforts to safeguard religious freedom.

Since returning to office in January, Trump has aggressively prioritized immigration enforcement, sending federal agents to major U.S. cities and turning away asylum seekers at the U.S.-Mexico border.

The expansion of the countries subject to entry restrictions marks a further escalation of immigration measures the administration has taken since the shooting of two National Guard members in Washington, D.C., last month.

Investigators say the shooting was carried out by an Afghan national who entered the U.S. in 2021 through a resettlement program under which Trump administration officials have argued there was insufficient vetting.

Days after the shooting, Trump vowed to “permanently pause” migration from all “Third World Countries,” although he did not identify any by name or define the term.

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