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Khalilzad warns of China’s growing grip on Central Asian minerals, urges swift US action
Former U.S. special envoy for Afghan peace talks, Zalmay Khalilzad, has issued a stark warning about China’s accelerating efforts to dominate Central Asia’s vast mineral wealth. He urged Washington—specifically the Trump administration—to act swiftly before Beijing consolidates its hold over the region’s critical resources.
“China’s push for hegemony in Central Asia is marching forward with its aggressive drive to control the region’s rich mineral resources,” Khalilzad posted on X. “We must contain China’s mineral expansionism.”
Khalilzad emphasized that countries including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan remain open to deeper mineral cooperation with the United States, but cautioned that time is running out.
“It is imperative that we decide—and soon—on plans for exploring opportunities with each of these countries, and perhaps regionwide. Our neglect will only help China,” he said.
China’s advance in the region
Under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Beijing has emerged as the dominant economic actor in Central Asia, investing billions in infrastructure, energy, and mining projects. Chinese firms have secured major stakes in lithium, copper, uranium, gold, and rare earth deposits across Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.
These deals, often linked to infrastructure financing and soft loans, have effectively aligned regional economies with Chinese supply chains—particularly in sectors vital to the global clean energy transition.
Afghanistan: A high-stakes frontier
Afghanistan remains central to China’s long-term mineral strategy. The country’s estimated $1 trillion in untapped mineral wealth includes lithium, copper, rare earth minerals, and iron ore—resources critical for everything from electric vehicle batteries to defense technologies.
Since the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) returned to power in 2021, China has maintained diplomatic engagement, kept its embassy in Kabul open, and signed agreements focused on mining and infrastructure cooperation.
However, the Stimson Center, a U.S.-based nonpartisan think tank, recently noted that despite China’s interest in Afghanistan, Beijing has maintained roughly the same level of investment stock since the IEA takeover. The organization suggests that China is pursuing a measured investment strategy, playing a long game amid ongoing uncertainty.
U.S. absence and strategic risk
While the U.S. once led resource mapping and infrastructure development in Afghanistan through USAID and the Pentagon, it now lacks direct engagement in the country’s mineral sector. Efforts such as the Minerals Security Partnership (MSP) and C5+1 diplomacy have yet to yield significant investments or a strategic presence.
Khalilzad’s warnings echo concerns from other U.S. officials. In January, Congressman Rob Wittman told the House Select Committee on China that Beijing was using below-cost price dumping on rare earths to undercut competitors and monopolize supply chains—a tactic designed to “drive out competition” and assert long-term control.
China’s dominance over Central Asian and Afghan mineral assets grants it growing leverage over global clean energy and technology supply chains, just as Western economies seek to reduce dependence on Chinese exports.
Despite heightened awareness in Washington, observers warn that a lack of cohesive and timely U.S. strategy may allow Beijing to further solidify its foothold.
Dr. Michael Kugelman, senior associate for South Asia at the Wilson Center, said in March: “The U.S. failure to establish a robust, long-term strategy in Afghanistan’s mining sector has left a vacuum that China is eager to fill. Beijing’s patient, strategic approach to securing mineral resources in Afghanistan illustrates Washington’s retreat from a critical arena of geopolitical competition.”
Highlighting Afghanistan’s mineral reserves as a centerpiece in global power dynamics, Marcena Hunter, director at Geneva-based Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, said: “In a world where access to these minerals is a matter of national security, there is a geopolitical race to secure control of critical mineral supply chains.”
The Embassy of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan in Malaysia on Tuesday held a ceremony to commemorate the fifth anniversary of the Islamic Emirate’s return to power. The event was attended by Malaysian government officials and diplomats, religious scholars, members of royal families, representatives of international and Islamic organizations, Afghan traders and Afghans living in Malaysia.
Naqibullah Ahmadi, the acting head of the embassy, described the anniversary as the result of the courage and sacrifices of the Afghan people and highlighted progress over the past five years in security, stability, economic growth, infrastructure and public services.
He emphasized balanced engagement with the international community and called for expanded cooperation between Afghanistan and Malaysia in trade, transit, agriculture, mining and investment.
Meanwhile, Dato’ Ahmad Azam Abdul Rahman, Special Adviser to Malaysia’s Foreign Minister, congratulated Afghanistan on the fifth anniversary of the victory and emphasized the continuation of relations between the two countries.
He expressed Malaysia’s readiness to share its experience in Islamic banking, halal certification, public health, agriculture, mining and good governance.
The ceremony also featured a video presentation highlighting developments in Afghanistan over the past five years. The event concluded with prayers for lasting peace, prosperity and national unity in Afghanistan.
Panjshir’s media office says that Mirdif Al-Qashouti, Qatar’s ambassador to Afghanistan, has visited Panjshir for the first time, following efforts by the provincial administration to attract investment and development projects.
Mohammad Agha Hakim, the governor of Panjshir, described relations between Afghanistan and Qatar as important during his meeting with the Qatari ambassador and called for increased investment by Islamic countries and Arab businessmen in the province.
Highlighting Panjshir’s potential in horticulture, agriculture and mining, he said apples, cherries, grapes and walnuts are among the province’s key products and that investment opportunities are available in these sectors. According to him, mining operations are currently underway at around 600 mines, while around 2,000 additional mines have been identified.
The Qatari ambassador described Afghanistan as a brotherly country and a longstanding friend of Qatar and reaffirmed his country’s support for Afghanistan. He said Qatar is committed to implementing various projects in Panjshir and plans to invest in establishing companies to process the province’s fresh and dried fruits.
A memorandum of understanding (MoU) has been signed between the Afghanistan Chamber of Commerce and Investment and the Chamber of Industries and Mines to establish a joint-stock company aimed at financing major economic and infrastructure projects and promoting investment in Afghanistan.
The agreement was signed on Tuesday at the Government Media and Information Center in the presence of Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs.
Speaking at the ceremony, Baradar said the new company would provide a structured mechanism for mobilizing private capital to finance large-scale economic and infrastructure projects.
He said the private sector has a key role to play in Afghanistan’s economic growth, particularly in boosting domestic production, creating jobs, expanding exports and financing major development projects.
Baradar said the company would pool the capital of traders, industrialists and investors under an organized, transparent and legal framework, allowing their combined resources to be used for major projects.
He also said the Islamic Emirate had created a secure environment for investors and industrialists and was working to streamline administrative procedures, provide legal and economic facilities, and remove barriers to investment.
Baradar called on traders, industrialists and investors to pool their resources and jointly invest in Afghanistan’s economic development. He also urged government institutions to provide comprehensive support to the private sector.
Under the agreement, the joint-stock company will focus on implementing infrastructure projects across various sectors and is expected to create new opportunities for investment in the country.
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