Former U.S. special envoy for Afghan peace talks, Zalmay Khalilzad, has issued a stark warning about China’s accelerating efforts to dominate Central Asia’s vast mineral wealth. He urged Washington—specifically the Trump administration—to act swiftly before Beijing consolidates its hold over the region’s critical resources.

“China’s push for hegemony in Central Asia is marching forward with its aggressive drive to control the region’s rich mineral resources,” Khalilzad posted on X. “We must contain China’s mineral expansionism.”

Khalilzad emphasized that countries including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan remain open to deeper mineral cooperation with the United States, but cautioned that time is running out.

“It is imperative that we decide—and soon—on plans for exploring opportunities with each of these countries, and perhaps regionwide. Our neglect will only help China,” he said.

China’s advance in the region

Under its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), Beijing has emerged as the dominant economic actor in Central Asia, investing billions in infrastructure, energy, and mining projects. Chinese firms have secured major stakes in lithium, copper, uranium, gold, and rare earth deposits across Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan.

These deals, often linked to infrastructure financing and soft loans, have effectively aligned regional economies with Chinese supply chains—particularly in sectors vital to the global clean energy transition.

Afghanistan: A high-stakes frontier

Afghanistan remains central to China’s long-term mineral strategy. The country’s estimated $1 trillion in untapped mineral wealth includes lithium, copper, rare earth minerals, and iron ore—resources critical for everything from electric vehicle batteries to defense technologies.

Since the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) returned to power in 2021, China has maintained diplomatic engagement, kept its embassy in Kabul open, and signed agreements focused on mining and infrastructure cooperation.

However, the Stimson Center, a U.S.-based nonpartisan think tank, recently noted that despite China’s interest in Afghanistan, Beijing has maintained roughly the same level of investment stock since the IEA takeover. The organization suggests that China is pursuing a measured investment strategy, playing a long game amid ongoing uncertainty.

U.S. absence and strategic risk

While the U.S. once led resource mapping and infrastructure development in Afghanistan through USAID and the Pentagon, it now lacks direct engagement in the country’s mineral sector. Efforts such as the Minerals Security Partnership (MSP) and C5+1 diplomacy have yet to yield significant investments or a strategic presence.

Khalilzad’s warnings echo concerns from other U.S. officials. In January, Congressman Rob Wittman told the House Select Committee on China that Beijing was using below-cost price dumping on rare earths to undercut competitors and monopolize supply chains—a tactic designed to “drive out competition” and assert long-term control.

China’s dominance over Central Asian and Afghan mineral assets grants it growing leverage over global clean energy and technology supply chains, just as Western economies seek to reduce dependence on Chinese exports.

Despite heightened awareness in Washington, observers warn that a lack of cohesive and timely U.S. strategy may allow Beijing to further solidify its foothold.

Dr. Michael Kugelman, senior associate for South Asia at the Wilson Center, said in March: “The U.S. failure to establish a robust, long-term strategy in Afghanistan’s mining sector has left a vacuum that China is eager to fill. Beijing’s patient, strategic approach to securing mineral resources in Afghanistan illustrates Washington’s retreat from a critical arena of geopolitical competition.”

Highlighting Afghanistan’s mineral reserves as a centerpiece in global power dynamics, Marcena Hunter, director at Geneva-based Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, said: “In a world where access to these minerals is a matter of national security, there is a geopolitical race to secure control of critical mineral supply chains.”