Regional
Only Gaza ceasefire will delay retaliation, say Iranian officials
In Israel, many observers believe a response is imminent after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Iran would “harshly punish” Israel for the strike in Tehran.
Only a ceasefire deal in Gaza stemming from hoped-for talks this week would hold Iran back from direct retaliation against Israel for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on its soil, three senior Iranian officials said.
Iran has vowed a severe response to Haniyeh’s killing, which took place as he visited Tehran late last month and which it blamed on Israel. Israel has neither confirmed or denied its involvement. The U.S. Navy has deployed warships and a submarine to the Middle East to bolster Israeli defenses.
One of the sources, a senior Iranian security official, said Iran, along with allies such as Hezbollah, would launch a direct attack if the Gaza talks fail or it perceives Israel is dragging out negotiations. The sources did not say how long Iran would allow for talks to progress before responding.
With an increased risk of a broader Middle East war after the killings of Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, Iran has been involved in intense dialogue with Western countries and the United States in recent days on ways to calibrate retaliation, said the sources, who all spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.
In comments published on Tuesday, the U.S. ambassador to Turkey confirmed Washington was asking allies to help convince Iran to de-escalate tensions. Three regional government sources described conversations with Tehran to avoid escalation ahead of the Gaza ceasefire talks, due to begin on Thursday in either Egypt or Qatar.
“We hope our response will be timed and executed in a way that does not harm a potential ceasefire,” Iran’s mission to the U.N. said on Friday in a statement. Iran’s foreign ministry on Tuesday said calls to exercise restraint “contradict principles of international law.”
Iran’s foreign ministry and its Revolutionary Guards Corps did not immediately respond to questions for this story. The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office and the U.S. State Department did not respond to questions.
“Something could happen as soon as this week by Iran and its proxies… That is a U.S. assessment as well as an Israel assessment,” White House spokesperson John Kirby told reporters on Monday.
“If something does happen this week, the timing of it could certainly well have an impact on these talks we want to do on Thursday,” he added.
At the weekend, Hamas cast doubt on whether talks would go ahead. Israel and Hamas have held several rounds of talks in recent months without agreeing a final ceasefire.
In Israel, many observers believe a response is imminent after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Iran would “harshly punish” Israel for the strike in Tehran.
“We are closely following what happens in Beirut and Tehran, and are working to thwart any (possible) threat, while also preparing a variety of offensive options,” Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said during a visit to an intelligence base in Northern Israel.
“We are determined to fulfill our mission – we must ensure the safe return of (Israel’s northern) residents to their homes, once we ensure that Hezbollah withdraws north of the Litani River.”
Iran’s regional policy is set by the elite Revolutionary Guards, who answer only to Khamenei, the country’s top authority. Iran’s relatively moderate new president Masoud Pezeshkian has repeatedly reaffirmed Iran’s anti-Israel stance and its support for resistance movements across the region since taking office last month.
Meir Litvak, a senior researcher at Tel Aviv University’s Alliance Center for Iranian Studies, said he thought Iran would put its needs before helping its ally Hamas but that Iran also wanted to avoid a full-scale war.
“The Iranians never subordinated their strategy and policies to the needs of their proxies or protégées,” Litvak said. “An attack is likely and almost inevitable but I don’t know the scale and the timing.”
Iran-based analyst Saeed Laylaz said the Islamic Republic’s leaders were now keen to work towards a ceasefire in Gaza, “to obtain incentives, avoid an all-out war and strengthen its position in the region.”
Laylaz said Iran had not previously been involved in the Gaza peace process but was now ready to play “a key role.”
Iran, two of the sources said, was considering sending a representative to the ceasefire talks. However, they said the representative would not directly attend the meetings but would engage in behind-the-scenes discussions “to maintain a line of diplomatic communication” with the United States while negotiations proceed.
Iran’s mission to the United Nations in New York told Reuters that Tehran would not have a representative present on the sidelines of the ceasefire talks. Officials in Washington, Qatar and Egypt did not immediately respond to questions about whether Iran would play an indirect role in talks.
Two senior sources close to Lebanon’s Hezbollah said Tehran would give the negotiations a chance but would not give up its intentions to retaliate.
A ceasefire in Gaza would give Iran cover for a smaller “symbolic” response, one of the sources said.
Israel launched its assault on Gaza after Hamas fighters stormed into southern Israel on Oct. 7, killing 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and capturing more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.
Since then, nearly 40,000 Palestinians have been killed in the Israeli offensive in Gaza, according to the health ministry.
Iran has not publicly indicated what would be the target of an eventual response to the Haniyeh assassination. Reuters
On April 13, two weeks after two Iranian generals were killed in a strike on Tehran’s embassy in Syria, Iran unleashed a barrage of hundreds of drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles towards Israel, damaging two airbases. Almost all of the weapons were shot down before they reached their targets.
“Iran wants its response to be much more effective than the April 13 attack,” said Farzin Nadimi, senior fellow with the Washington Institute for Near East policy.”
Nadimi said such a response would require “a lot of preparation and coordination” especially if it involved Iran’s network of allied armed groups opposing Israel and the United States across the Middle East, with Hezbollah the senior member of the so-called “Axis of Resistance,” that along with Iraqi militias and Yemen’s Houthis have harried Israel since Oct. 7.
Two of the Iranian sources said Iran would support Hezbollah and other allies if they launched their own responses to the killing of Haniyeh and Hezbollah’s top military commander, Fuad Shukr, who died in a strike in Beirut the day before Haniyeh was killed in Tehran.
The sources did not specify what form such support could take.
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Pakistan’s military chief Asim Munir in spotlight over Trump’s Gaza plan
Munir was earlier this month anointed chief of the defence forces to head the air force and navy as well, with a job extension until 2030.
Pakistan’s most powerful military chief in decades faces the toughest test of his newly amassed powers as Washington pushes Islamabad to contribute troops to the Gaza stabilisation force, a move analysts say could spark domestic backlash.
Field Marshal Asim Munir is expected to fly to Washington to meet President Donald Trump in the coming weeks for a third meeting in six months that will likely focus on the Gaza force, two sources told Reuters, one of them a key player in the general’s economic diplomacy.
Trump’s 20-point Gaza plan calls for a force from Muslim nations to oversee a transition period for reconstruction and economic recovery in the war-torn Palestinian territory, decimated by over two years of Israeli military bombardment.
Many countries are wary of the mission to demilitarise Gaza’s Islamist militant group Hamas, which could drag them into the conflict and enrage their pro-Palestinian and anti-Israeli populations.
But Munir has built a close relationship with the mercurial Trump to repair years of mistrust between Washington and Islamabad. In June, he was rewarded with a White House lunch – the first time a U.S. president hosted Pakistan’s army chief alone, without civilian officials.
“Not contributing (to the Gaza stabilisation force) could annoy Trump, which is no small matter for a Pakistani state that appears quite keen to remain in his good graces – in great part to secure U.S. investment and security aid,” said Michael Kugelman, Senior Fellow, South Asia at Washington-based Atlantic Council.
Pakistan, the world’s only Muslim country with nuclear weapons, has a battle-hardened military having gone to war with arch-rival India three times and a brief conflict this summer.
It has also tackled insurgencies in its far-flung regions and is currently embroiled in a bruising war with Islamist militants who it says are operating from Afghanistan.
Pakistan’s military strength means “there is a greater pressure on Munir to deliver his capacity,” said author and defence analyst Ayesha Siddiqa.
Pakistan’s military, foreign office and information ministry did not respond to questions from Reuters. The White House also did not respond to a request for a comment.
Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said last month that Islamabad could consider contributing troops for peacekeeping but disarming Hamas “is not our job.”
Munir was earlier this month anointed chief of the defence forces to head the air force and navy as well, with a job extension until 2030.
He will retain his field marshal title forever, as well as enjoy lifetime immunity from any criminal prosecution under the constitutional amendments that Pakistan’s civilian government pushed through parliament late last month.
“Few people in Pakistan enjoy the luxury of being able to take risks more than Munir. He has unbridled power, now constitutionally protected,” Kugelman added.
“Ultimately, it will be Munir’s rules, and his rules only.”
Over the past few weeks, Munir has met military and civilian leaders from countries such as Indonesia, Malaysia, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Jordan, Egypt and Qatar, according to the military’s statements, which Siddiqa said appeared to be consultations on the Gaza force.
But the big concern at home is that the involvement of Pakistan troops in Gaza under a U.S.-backed plan could re-ignite protests from Pakistan’s Islamist parties that are deeply opposed to the U.S. and Israel.
The Islamists have street power to mobilise thousands.
A powerful and violent anti-Israel Islamist party that fights for upholding Pakistan’s ultra-strict blasphemy laws was banned in October.
Authorities arrested its leaders and over 1,500 supporters and seized its assets and bank accounts in an ongoing crackdown, officials said.
While Islamabad has outlawed the group, its ideology is still alive.
The party of former jailed premier, Imran Khan, whose supporters won the most seats in the 2024 national elections and has wide public support, also has an axe to grind against Munir.
Abdul Basit, Senior Associate Fellow, S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies in Singapore, said if things escalated once the Gaza force was on the ground, it would cause problems quickly.
“People will say ‘Asim Munir is doing Israel’s bidding’ – it will be foolhardy of anyone not to see it coming.”
Regional
Two US soldiers and an interpreter killed in suspected Daesh attack in Syria
Two U.S. Army soldiers and a civilian interpreter were killed in Syria on Saturday by a suspected Daesh attacker who targeted a convoy of American and Syrian forces before being shot dead, the U.S. military said.
The attack was barely a month after Syria announced it had signed a political cooperation agreement with the U.S.-led coalition against Daesh, which coincided with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s visit to the White House, Reuters reported.
The attacker was a member of the Syrian security forces, three local officials told Reuters. A Syrian Interior Ministry spokesperson told a state-run television channel that the man did not have a leadership role in the security forces.
“On December 10, an evaluation was issued indicating that this attacker might hold extremist ideas, and a decision regarding him was due to be issued tomorrow, on Sunday,” the spokesperson, Noureddine el-Baba, told Syrian television channel Al-Ikhbariya.
In a post on his Truth Social platform, U.S. President Donald Trump vowed “very serious retaliation,” mourning the loss of “three great patriots”. He described the incident in remarks to reporters as a “terrible” attack.
CENTRAL COMMAND SAYS THE ATTACKER WAS KILLED
Three U.S. soldiers were also wounded in the attack, the U.S. military’s Central Command said.
In a statement, Central Command said the attack by a lone gunman occurred “as the soldiers were conducting a key leader engagement” in the central Syrian town of Palmyra. “Partner forces” killed the attacker, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth wrote in a social media post.
A senior U.S. official said initial assessments indicated that Daesh probably carried out the attack, although the militant group did not immediately claim responsibility.
It took place in an area not controlled by the Syrian government, the official said.
Baba said Syria had warned about the possibility of an Daesh attack in that region but that “coalition forces did not take the Syrian warnings… into account.”
He said Syria would determine whether the attacker was linked to Daesh or merely subscribed to the group’s ideology.
The soldiers’ names will be withheld until 24 hours after the next-of-kin notification, the U.S. military said.
US ENVOY CONDEMNS THE ATTACK
Syrian state news agency SANA quoted a security source as saying two Syrian service personnel were injured, without providing further details. The source told SANA that American helicopters evacuated the injured to a U.S. base in Syria’s Al-Tanf region near the Iraqi border.
Tom Barrack, the U.S. ambassador to Turkey and special envoy to Syria, condemned the attack.
“We mourn the loss of three brave U.S. service members and civilian personnel and wish a speedy recovery to the Syrian troops wounded in the attack,” Barrack said in a statement. “We remain committed to defeating terrorism with our Syrian partners.”
The U.S.-led coalition has carried out air strikes and ground operations in Syria targeting Islamic State suspects in recent months, often with the involvement of Syria’s security forces. Syria last month also carried out a nationwide campaign arresting more than 70 people accused of links to the group.
The United States has troops stationed in northeastern Syria as part of a decade-long effort to help a Kurdish-led force there.
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Pakistan’s ex-spy chief jailed for 14 years in rare military rebuke
A military court in Pakistan jailed former spy chief Faiz Hamid for 14 years on four charges including interference in politics, the army said on Thursday, in a rare conviction of a once-powerful general in the South Asian nation.
Hamid, in custody and under trial since August last year, was the chief of Pakistan’s powerful Inter-Services Intelligence agency from 2019 to 2021 under jailed former Prime Minister Imran Khan, and the two were considered close allies.”The accused was tried on four charges,” the military said in a statement, Reuters reported.
The charges ranged from engaging in political activities and violating the Official Secrets Act in a way detrimental to safety and state interest to misuse of authority and resources as well as causing wrongful loss to individuals, it added.
TIES TO JAILED FORMER PM IMRAN KHAN
The former general was found guilty on all the charges, the military said, without detailing the incidents. His conviction followed “lengthy and laborious legal proceedings”, it added, and Hamid has a right of appeal.
He also faces a separate investigation of his role in May 2023 attacks by thousands of Khan’s supporters on scores of military installations and offices to protest against the arrest of the 72-year-old former cricket star.
Information Minister Attaullah Tarar said Hamid had crossed “red lines” and acted as an advisor to Khan’s party to try to create chaos in the country.
Hamid’s lawyers or family could not be reached for comment. Khan’s PTI party did not immediately respond to a Reuters request for comment.
Khan has been in jail since August 2023.
Khan and nearly 150 of his party leaders and supporters have already been indicted by an anti-terrorism court on charges of inciting the attacks that also targeted military headquarters in the garrison city of Rawalpindi.
Khan and his associates deny the charges.
Hamid’s close ties to Khan, who blames the military for ousting him from power in 2022, were a source of tension between the cricketer-turned-politician and the military.
The military, which has directly ruled the nation of 241 million for more than three decades of its 77-year independent history, plays a big role in making or breaking governments.
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