Business
Pakistan-Afghanistan trade shrinks to $1 billion amid border disruptions and policy uncertainty
Trade experts and business leaders are urging both Islamabad and Kabul to adopt consistent and transparent trade policies
The annual trade volume between Pakistan and Afghanistan has dropped sharply from $2.5 billion to just $1 billion, as ongoing border closures and inconsistent trade policies continue to strain economic ties between the two neighbors.
Zia-ul-Haq Sarhadi, Vice President of the Pakistan-Afghanistan Joint Chamber of Commerce, described the decline as “deeply concerning,” warning that Pakistan’s broader regional trade ambitions, including access to Central Asian markets, depend on a stable trading relationship with Afghanistan.
For years, Pakistan has exported essential goods to Afghanistan, including cement, steel bars, pharmaceuticals, vegetables, flour, and sugar, while importing fresh produce and other agricultural products in return.
However, persistent challenges and growing diplomatic friction between the two countries have disrupted this exchange.
A key flashpoint occurred in February when heightened tensions prompted a closure of the Pakistan-Afghanistan border.
The shutdown halted the movement of goods and people, causing significant losses in tax revenues for both nations and stalling cross-border commerce.
“The impact wasn’t just on trade numbers,” Sarhadi noted. “From Karachi’s ports to the Torkham crossing, thousands of laborers and transport workers were left jobless for days. The ripple effects hurt the most vulnerable segments of society.”
Trade experts and business leaders are urging both Islamabad and Kabul to adopt consistent and transparent trade policies, emphasizing that long-term economic cooperation is vital not only for mutual economic benefit but also for fostering regional peace and stability.
They warn that without a sustained diplomatic and economic dialogue, both countries risk further isolation and economic stagnation, especially at a time when the region faces broader geopolitical and security challenges.
Business
Mahirood Customs leads Iran’s exports to Afghanistan
More than 1.5 million tonnes of goods were exported to Afghanistan through the border crossing during this period.
Mahirood Customs in South Khorasan province has become Iran’s main export gateway to Afghanistan, accounting for 36 percent of the country’s total exports to its eastern neighbor, Iranian officials said.
South Khorasan Governor Seyed Mohammadreza Hashemi told local media that Mahirood ranked first among Iran’s 71 active customs points during the first eight months of the current Iranian year.
More than 1.5 million tonnes of goods were exported to Afghanistan through the border crossing during this period.
Official customs figures show that Iran’s total exports to Afghanistan exceeded 4.26 million tonnes in the first eight months of the year, with Mahirood handling the largest share, Hashemi said.
He attributed the strong performance to South Khorasan’s strategic location, improved border infrastructure, effective planning, close cooperation with traders, and coordinated efforts by government agencies.
Hashemi said the expansion of exports via Mahirood Customs is contributing to economic growth, job creation, and stronger economic diplomacy for the province.
He added that continued support for exporters and streamlined customs procedures could further increase South Khorasan’s share of the Afghan market and other target markets in the future.
Business
Afghanistan, India discuss expanding investment opportunities
Officials said the proposed investments could contribute significantly to job creation, the transfer of technical skills, and the broader growth of Afghanistan’s economy.
Abdul Mateen Saeed, Deputy Minister for Customs and Revenue at Afghanistan’s Ministry of Finance, has held talks with a delegation of Indian investors on potential investment opportunities in the country.
In a statement, the Ministry of Finance said Saeed highlighted the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan’s recent measures to facilitate trade and investment, noting that additional incentives for traders and industrialists are also being developed.
He emphasized that bilateral relations between Afghanistan and India—particularly in trade and investment—are gradually strengthening.
The Indian investors expressed readiness to invest in several priority sectors, including the manufacture of medicines for human, agricultural and veterinary use, the introduction of modern technologies in agriculture and mining, and the implementation of capacity-building programs for Afghan professionals.
Officials said the proposed investments could contribute significantly to job creation, the transfer of technical skills, and the broader growth of Afghanistan’s economy.
Business
Afghan economy posts second year of growth despite deep structural challenges
The recent uptick has been driven in part by increased demand linked to the return of more than two million Afghans from Iran and Pakistan, boosting activity in the services and industrial sectors.
Afghanistan’s economy is set to record a second consecutive year of growth, supported by low inflation and stronger domestic revenues, but deep structural challenges continue to weigh heavily on the country’s long-term outlook.
According to the World Bank’s latest Afghanistan Development Update, cited by Himalaya Diary, gross domestic product is projected to expand by 4.3 percent in 2025, following an estimated 2.5 percent growth in 2024.
The recent uptick has been driven in part by increased demand linked to the return of more than two million Afghans from Iran and Pakistan, boosting activity in the services and industrial sectors.
Agriculture has shown relative resilience, with a record irrigated wheat harvest achieved despite severe drought conditions. Mining and construction have also contributed to overall output growth, helping sustain economic momentum.
However, the recovery has not translated into improved living standards. Rapid population growth, estimated at 8.6 percent in 2025, is expected to push GDP per capita down by around 4 percent. Inflation remains low at about 2 percent — among the lowest in the region — reflecting stable food prices and a stronger currency, but also highlighting Afghanistan’s reliance on imports and exposure to external shocks.
On the fiscal front, domestic revenues have improved, with tax collection projected to reach 17.1 percent of GDP in 2025 as enforcement measures tighten. At the same time, declining foreign grants are shrinking the overall fiscal space, increasing reliance on trade taxes and continued donor support.
The financial sector remains under strain. Banks face regulatory uncertainty, rising non-performing loans and weak credit growth, while liquidity pressures persist as more cash circulates outside the formal system. Limited access to banking services and the transition to Islamic finance have further constrained financial inclusion.
Labour market pressures are also mounting. Nearly one in four young Afghans is unemployed, and restrictions on women’s education and economic participation are undermining human capital and long-term growth prospects. These challenges are compounded by one of the largest return migration waves in recent years, with an estimated 4 to 4.7 million people returning between late 2023 and mid-2025, intensifying pressure on jobs and public services, particularly in urban and border areas.
The World Bank warns that sustaining the recovery will require reforms to attract private investment, strengthen the financial system and diversify exports. Improved governance, a more supportive business environment and stronger engagement with international partners will be critical if Afghanistan is to reduce its reliance on humanitarian aid and move toward more resilient and inclusive growth.
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