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Shippers mask positions, weigh options amid Red Sea attacks

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A number of container ships are anchored in the Red Sea and others have turned off tracking systems as traders adjust routes and prices in response to maritime attacks by Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthis on the world’s main East-West trade route.

Attacks in recent days on ships in the major Red Sea shipping route have raised the specter of another bout of disruption to international commerce following the upheaval of the COVID pandemic, and prompted a U.S.-led international force to patrol waters near Yemen, Reuters reported.

The Red Sea is linked to the Mediterranean by the Suez Canal, which creates the shortest shipping route between Europe and Asia. About 12% of world shipping traffic transits the canal.

Major shippers including Hapag Lloyd (HLAG.DE), MSC and Maersk (MAERSKb.CO), oil major BP (BP.L) and oil tanker group Frontline (FRO.OL) have said they will be avoiding the Red Sea route and re-routing via southern Africa’s Cape of Good Hope.

But many ships are still plying the waterway. Several ships underway have armed guards on board, LSEG data showed.

At least 11 container ships which had passed through Suez and were approaching Yemen carrying consumer goods and grains bound for countries including Singapore, Malaysia and the United Arab Emirates, are now anchored in the Red Sea between Sudan and Saudi Arabia, LSEG shiptracking data showed.

Four MSC container ships in the Red Sea have had their transponders turned off since Dec. 17, the data showed, likely to avoid detection.

Some vessels are attempting to mask their positions by pinging on other locations, as a safety precaution when entering the Yemen coastline, said Ioannis Papadimitriou, senior freight analyst at Vortexa.

Denmark’s Maersk on Friday paused all container shipments through the Red Sea following a “near-miss incident” involving its vessel Maersk Gibraltar a day earlier. A number of the ships at anchor in the Red Sea are Maersk vessels, LSEG data showed.

On Tuesday it said vessels previously paused and due to sail through the southern Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden would be rerouted around Africa.

The Iran-backed Houthis, who say they are supporting Palestinians under siege by Israel in the Gaza Strip, have waded into the Israel-Hamas conflict by attacking vessels in vital shipping lanes and even firing drones and missiles at Israel, more than 1,000 miles from the Yemeni capital Sanaa.

Houthis attacked two commercial shipping vessels in the southern Red Sea on Monday.

Industry sources say the impact on global trade will depend on how long the crisis persists, but insurance premiums and longer routes would be immediate burdens.

Vortexa’s Papadimitriou on Tuesday said the price of a Suezmax to carry crude from the Middle East to Europe has risen 25% in a week.

The disruption to energy flows in the Red Sea is unlikely to have large effects on crude and liquefied natural gas (LNG) prices, Goldman Sachs said on Monday, as vessels can be redirected.

“We do estimate that a hypothetical prolonged redirection of all 7 million barrels per day of gross (Northbound and Southbound) oil flows would raise spot crude prices relative to long-dated prices by $3-4/per barrel

Regional

Trump backs down on strikes on Iran’s power network, says US and Tehran holding talks

Iranian attacks have effectively closed the Strait, which ​carries a ⁠fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas.

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President Donald Trump backed down on targeting Iran’s power network on Monday, saying the U.S. and ​Iran have held constructive talks and that he would ‌postpone any strikes on power plants and energy infrastructure, Reuters reported.

Trump’s statement came after Iran threatened to attack Israel’s power plants and those supplying U.S. bases ​across the Gulf region if the U.S. targets Iran’s ​power network.

The dollar plunged and ​stocks surged following Trump’s post.

The United States and Iran “have had, over ​the last two days, very good and productive conversations regarding a complete and total resolution of our hostilities in the Middle East,” Trump wrote ​in a post on Truth Social.

“I have instructed the Department ​of War to postpone any and all military strikes against Iranian power plants ‌and ⁠energy infrastructure for a five-day period, subject to the success of the ongoing meetings and discussions.”

On Saturday, Trump warned that Iranian power plants would be destroyed if Tehran failed to “fully open” ​the Strait of ​Hormuz to ⁠all shipping within 48 hours. Trump set a deadline of around 7:44 p.m. EDT (2344 GMT) on ​Monday.

Iranian attacks have effectively closed the Strait, which ​carries a ⁠fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas, read the report.

More than 2,000 people have been killed in the war the U.S. and Israel ⁠launched ​on February 28, which has upended markets, ​driven up fuel costs, fuelled global inflation fears and convulsed the postwar Western ​alliance.

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Iran says coastal attack will lead to full Gulf closure and mine-laying

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An attack on Iran’s southern coast and islands will lead to ​Gulf routes being cut with the ‌laying of sea mines, the country’s Defence Council said on Monday according to state media, Reuters reported.

The ​U.S. is considering plans to occupy, opens new tab or ​blockade Iran’s Kharg Island, the country’s main ⁠oil export hub, to pressure Tehran ​to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to ​all shipping, according to Axios.

“Any attempt to attack Iran’s coasts or islands will cause all access routes ​in the Gulf (…) to be mined ​with various types of sea mines, including floating ‌mines ⁠that can be released from the coast,” the statement read.

“In this case, the entire Gulf will practically be in a situation ​similar to ​the ⁠Strait of Hormuz for a long time (…) One should not forget ​the failure of more than ​100 ⁠minesweepers in the 1980s in removing a few sea mines.”

The Defence Council recalled that ⁠non-belligerent ​states can only pass through ​the Strait of Hormuz by coordinating passage with Iran.

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Regional

Iran says Hormuz open to all but ‘enemy-linked’ ships

The threat of Iranian attacks during the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has kept most ships from getting through the narrow strait, the conduit for around a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, threatening a global energy shock.

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The Strait of Hormuz remains open to all shipping except vessels linked to “Iran’s enemies”, Iranian media reports published on Sunday quoted Iran’s representative to the U.N. maritime agency as saying.

Ali Mousavi’s comments came from an interview published on Friday by Chinese news agency Xinhua, before U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat to target ⁠Iranian power plants if the strait was not “fully open” within 48 hours.

The threat of Iranian attacks during the U.S.-Israeli war on Iran has kept most ships from getting through the narrow strait, the conduit for around a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas supplies, threatening a global energy shock.

Mousavi, who is also Iran’s ambassador to the ⁠UK, was also quoted as saying that Tehran would continue to cooperate with the International Maritime Organisation (IMO) to improve maritime safety and protect seafarers in the Gulf, adding that ships ⁠not belonging to “Iran’s enemies” could pass the strait by coordinating security and safety arrangements with Tehran.

“Diplomacy remains Iran’s priority. However, a complete ⁠cessation of aggression as well as mutual trust and confidence are more important,” Mousavi said, adding that Israeli ⁠and U.S. attacks against Iran were at the “root of the current situation in the Strait of Hormuz”.

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