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U.S. strikes on Iran’s nuclear sites set up “cat-and-mouse” hunt for missing uranium

The White House did not respond to a request for comment. The State Department referred Reuters to Trump’s public remarks.

Published

10 months ago

June 30, 2025

Ariana News

The U.S. and Israeli bombing of Iranian nuclear sites creates a conundrum for U.N. inspectors in Iran: how can you tell if enriched uranium stocks, some of them near weapons grade, were buried beneath the rubble or secretly hidden away?

Following last weekend’s attacks on three of Iran’s top nuclear sites – at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan – President Donald Trump said the facilities had been “obliterated” by U.S. munitions, including bunker-busting bombs.

But the U.N. nuclear watchdog, the International Atomic Energy Agency, which monitors Tehran’s nuclear program, has said it’s unclear exactly what damage was sustained at Fordow, a plant buried deep inside a mountain that produced the bulk of Iran’s most highly enriched uranium.

IAEA chief Rafael Grossi said on Monday it was highly likely the sensitive centrifuges used to enrich uranium inside Fordow were badly damaged. It’s far less clear whether Iran’s 9 tonnes of enriched uranium – more than 400 kg of it enriched to close to weapons grade – were destroyed.

Western governments are scrambling to determine what’s become of it.

Reuters spoke to more than a dozen current and former officials involved in efforts to contain Iran’s nuclear program who said the bombing may have provided the perfect cover for Iran to make its uranium stockpiles disappear and any IAEA investigation would likely be lengthy and arduous.

Olli Heinonen, previously the IAEA’s top inspector from 2005 to 2010, said the search will probably involve complicated recovery of materials from damaged buildings as well as forensics and environmental sampling, which take a long time.

“There could be materials which are inaccessible, distributed under the rubble or lost during the bombing,” said Heinonen, who dealt extensively with Iran while at the IAEA and now works at the Stimson Center think-tank in Washington.

Iran’s more than 400 kg of uranium enriched to up to 60% purity – a short step from the roughly 90% of weapons grade – are enough, if enriched further, for nine nuclear weapons, according to an IAEA yardstick.

Even a fraction of that left unaccounted for would be a grave concern for Western powers that believe Iran is at least keeping the option of nuclear weapons open.

There are indications Iran may have moved some of its enriched uranium before it could be struck.

IAEA chief Grossi said Iran informed him on June 13, the day of Israel’s first attacks, that it was taking measures to protect its nuclear equipment and materials. While it did not elaborate, he said that suggests it was moved.

A Western diplomat involved in the dossier, who asked not to be identified because of the sensitivity of the issue, said most of the enriched uranium at Fordow would appear to have been moved days in advance of the attacks, “almost as if they knew it was coming”.

Some experts have said a line of vehicles including trucks visible on satellite imagery outside Fordow before it was hit suggests enriched uranium there was moved elsewhere, though U.S. Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth on Thursday said he was unaware of any intelligence suggesting Iran had moved it.

Trump has also dismissed such concerns. In an interview due to air on Sunday with Fox News Channel’s “Sunday Morning Futures”, he insisted the Iranians “didn’t move anything.”

“It’s very dangerous to do. It is very heavy – very, very heavy. It’s a very hard thing to do,” Trump said. “Plus we didn’t give much notice because they didn’t know we were coming until just, you know, then.”

The White House did not respond to a request for comment. The State Department referred Reuters to Trump’s public remarks.

A second Western diplomat said it would be a major challenge to verify the condition of the uranium stockpile, citing a long list of past disputes between the IAEA and Tehran, including Iran’s failure to credibly explain uranium traces found at undeclared sites.

“It’ll be a game of cat and mouse.”

Iran says it has fulfilled all its obligations towards the watchdog.

Before Israel launched its 12-day military campaign aimed at destroying Iran’s nuclear and missile capabilities, the IAEA had regular access to Iran’s enrichment sites and monitored what was inside them around the clock as part of the 191-nation Non-Proliferation Treaty aimed at preventing the spread of nuclear weapons, to which Iran is a party.

Now, rubble and ash blur the picture.

What’s more, Iran has threatened to stop working with the IAEA. Furious at the non-proliferation regime’s failure to protect it from strikes many countries see as unlawful, Iran’s parliament voted on Wednesday to suspend cooperation.

Tehran says a resolution this month passed by the IAEA’s 35-nation Board of Governors declaring Iran in breach of its non-proliferation obligations paved the way for Israel’s attacks, which began the next day, by providing an element of diplomatic cover. The IAEA denies that.

Iran has repeatedly denied that it has an active program to develop a nuclear bomb. And U.S. intelligence – dismissed by Trump before the airstrikes – had said there was no evidence Tehran was taking steps toward developing one.

However, experts say there is no reason for enriching uranium to 60% for a civilian nuclear program, which can run on less than 5% enrichment.

As a party to the NPT, Iran must account for its stock of enriched uranium. The IAEA then has to verify Iran’s account by means including inspections, but its powers are limited – it inspects Iran’s declared nuclear facilities but cannot carry out snap inspections at undeclared locations.

Iran has an unknown number of extra centrifuges stored at locations the U.N. nuclear watchdog is unaware of, the IAEA has said, with which it might be able to set up a new or secret enrichment site.

That makes hunting down the material that can be enriched further, particularly that closest to bomb grade, all the more important.

“Iran’s stockpile of 60% enriched uranium may not have been part of the ‘mission’ but it is a significant part of the proliferation risk – particularly if centrifuges are unaccounted for,” Kelsey Davenport of the Washington-based Arms Control Association said on X on Friday.

The IAEA can and does receive intelligence from member states, which include the United States and Israel, but says it takes nothing at face value and independently verifies tip-offs.

Having pummelled the sites housing the uranium, Israel and the U.S. are seen as the countries most likely to accuse Iran of hiding it or restarting enrichment, officials say.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office did not respond to a request for comment for this story.

U.N. inspectors’ futile hunt for large caches of weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, which preceded the U.S.-led invasion in 2003, showed the enormous difficulty of verifying foreign powers’ assertions about hidden stockpiles of material when there is little tangible information to go on.

As in Iraq, inspectors could end up chasing shadows.

“If the Iranians come clean with the 400 kg of HEU (highly enriched uranium) then the problem is manageable, but if they don’t then nobody will ever be sure what happened to it,” a third Western diplomat said.

The IAEA, which answers to 180 member states, has said it cannot guarantee Iran’s nuclear development is entirely peaceful, but has no credible indications of a coordinated weapons program.

The U.S. this week backed the IAEA’s verification and monitoring work and urged Tehran to ensure its inspectors in the country are safe.

It is a long journey from there to accounting for every gram of enriched uranium, the IAEA’s standard.

The above-ground plant at Natanz, the smaller of the two facilities enriching uranium up to 60 percent, was flattened in the strikes, the IAEA said, suggesting a small portion of Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile may have been destroyed.

Fordow, Iran’s most deeply buried enrichment plant, which was producing the bulk of 60%-enriched uranium, was first seriously hit last weekend when the United States dropped its biggest conventional bombs on it. The damage to its underground halls is unclear.

An underground area in Isfahan where much of Iran’s most highly enriched uranium was stored was also bombed, causing damage to the tunnel entrances leading to it.

The agency has not been able to carry out inspections since Israel’s bombing campaign began, leaving the outside world with more questions than answers.

Grossi said on Wednesday the conditions at the bombed sites would make it difficult for IAEA inspectors to work there – suggesting it could take time. “There is rubble, there could be unexploded ordnance,” he said.

Heinonen, the former chief IAEA inspector, said it was vital the agency be transparent in real time about what its inspectors have been able to verify independently, including any uncertainties, and what remained unknown.

“Member states can then make their own risk assessments,” he said.

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US plans operation to assist ships stranded in Strait of Hormuz

Trump warned that any interference with the mission would be met with forceful action.

Published

2 days ago

May 4, 2026

Ariana News

US President Donald Trump has announced that the United States will begin an operation to help vessels trapped in the Strait of Hormuz, as tensions linked to the ongoing conflict with Iran continue to disrupt global shipping.

In a statement posted on Truth Social, Trump said Washington would work to guide ships safely out of restricted waters, where hundreds of vessels and thousands of crew members have been unable to pass for weeks. Many are reportedly running low on essential supplies.

The move comes amid escalating security concerns in the region. A tanker recently reported being struck by unidentified projectiles while transiting the strait, according to the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations. All crew were said to be safe, though details of the incident remain limited.

The U.S. military’s United States Central Command (CENTCOM) said it would support the effort with a significant deployment of personnel, aircraft, warships and drones. Officials described the mission as critical to protecting both regional stability and the global economy, while maintaining pressure on Iran through an ongoing naval blockade.

The Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global energy supplies, has seen severe disruption over the past two months. Iran has effectively restricted most shipping traffic, except for its own vessels, in response to the broader conflict. Several ships have reportedly come under fire or been seized, while the U.S. has imposed its own countermeasures targeting Iranian-linked shipping.

Washington has been seeking international backing for a broader coalition to secure maritime routes, though it remains unclear which countries will participate in the latest operation or how it will be implemented.

Trump warned that any interference with the mission would be met with forceful action.

Meanwhile, diplomatic efforts remain uncertain. Iranian officials confirmed they are reviewing a U.S. response to a proposed framework for peace talks, which was reportedly conveyed via Pakistan. However, Tehran signaled that nuclear negotiations are currently off the table, suggesting they may only resume once the conflict ends and maritime blockades are lifted.

The standoff has already had global economic repercussions, with oil prices rising sharply amid fears over supply disruptions. The waterway is responsible for transporting roughly a fifth of the world’s oil and gas, making its stability a key concern for international markets.

Despite a pause in direct military strikes in recent weeks, attempts to restart formal negotiations between Washington and Tehran have yet to gain traction, leaving both the security situation and diplomatic outlook uncertain.

Regional

Iran says it has received US response to its latest offer for talks

Published

2 days ago

May 3, 2026

Ariana News

Iran said on Sunday it had received a U.S. response to its latest offer for peace talks, a day after President Donald Trump said he would probably reject the Iranian proposal because “they have not paid a big enough price”.

Iranian state media reported that Washington had conveyed its response to Iran’s 14-point proposal via Pakistan, ‌and that Tehran was now reviewing it. There was no immediate confirmation from Washington or Islamabad of the U.S. response, Reuters reported.

“At this stage, we do not have nuclear negotiations,” state media quoted Iran’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson Esmaeil Baghaei as saying, an apparent reference to Iran’s proposal to set aside talks on nuclear issues until after the war ends and the foes agree to lift opposing blockades of Gulf shipping.

On Saturday, Trump said that he had yet to review the exact wording of the Iranian peace proposal, but that he was likely to reject it.

“I will soon be reviewing the plan that Iran has just sent to us, but can’t imagine that it would be acceptable in that they have not yet paid a big enough price for what they have done to Humanity, and the World, over the last 47 years,” he wrote on social ⁠media.

STRAIT STILL SHUT

The United States and Israel suspended their bombing campaign against Iran four weeks ago, and U.S. and Iranian officials held one round of talks. But attempts to set up further meetings have so far failed.

Iran handed over its latest proposal on Thursday, and a senior Iranian official confirmed on Saturday that Tehran envisions ending the war and resolving the shipping standoff first, while leaving talks on Iran’s nuclear programme for later.

Though Trump initially said on Friday that he was not satisfied with the Iranian proposal, he said on Saturday he was still looking at it.

“They told me about the concept of the deal. They’re going to give me the exact wording now,” he told reporters. Asked if he might restart strikes on Iran, Trump replied: “I don’t want to say that. I mean, I can’t tell that to a reporter. If they misbehave, if they do something bad, right now we’ll see. But it’s a possibility that could happen.”

IRAN’S PROPOSAL VS WASHINGTON’S DEMANDS

The proposal to delay talks on nuclear issues until a later phase would appear at odds with Washington’s repeated demand that Iran accept stringent restrictions on its nuclear programme before the war can end.

Washington wants Tehran to give up its stockpile of more than 400 kg (900 pounds) of highly enriched uranium, which the United States says could be used to make a bomb. Iran says its nuclear programme ‌is peaceful, though ⁠it is willing to discuss some curbs in return for the lifting of sanctions, as it had accepted in a 2015 deal that Trump abandoned.

While saying repeatedly he is in no hurry, Trump is under domestic pressure to break Iran’s hold on the Strait of Hormuz, which has choked off 20% of the world’s oil and gas supplies and pushed up U.S. gasoline prices. Trump’s Republican Party faces the risk of a voter backlash over higher prices in midterm congressional elections in November.

Iranian media said Tehran’s 14-point proposal includes withdrawing U.S. forces from nearby areas, lifting the blockade, releasing frozen assets, paying compensation, lifting sanctions, ending the war on all fronts including Lebanon and creating a new control mechanism for the strait.

Iran has been blocking nearly ⁠all shipping from the Gulf apart from its own for more than two months. Last month, the U.S. imposed its own blockade of ships from Iranian ports.

Speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss confidential diplomacy, the senior Iranian official said Tehran believed its latest proposal to shelve nuclear talks for a later stage was a significant shift aimed at facilitating an agreement.

“Under this framework, negotiations over the more complicated nuclear issue have been moved to the final stage to create a more conducive atmosphere,” the ⁠official said.

ISRAEL ORDERS LEBANON EVACUATIONS

On Sunday, Israel ordered thousands of Lebanese to leave villages in southern Lebanon, an escalation of a war between Israel and Iran’s Hezbollah allies there that has run in parallel to the Iran war and could further complicate wider peace efforts.

Iran has said talks with Washington cannot resume unless a ceasefire also holds in Lebanon, which Israel invaded in March to attack Hezbollah after the Iranian-backed Lebanese group fired across the border in support ⁠of Tehran.

Lebanon and Israel agreed a separate truce last month, but fighting has continued, though on a smaller scale. The Israeli military issued an urgent warning on Sunday to residents of 11 towns and villages in Lebanon’s south, urging them to evacuate their homes and move at least 1,000 metres (3,300 feet) away to open areas.

The military said it was conducting operations against Hezbollah following what it described as a violation of the ceasefire, warning that anyone near Hezbollah fighters or facilities could be at risk.

Regional

Iranian proposal rejected by Trump would open strait before nuclear talks, Iran official says

Published

4 days ago

May 2, 2026

Ariana News

An Iranian proposal so far rejected by U.S. President Donald Trump would open shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and end the U.S. blockade of Iran while leaving talks on Iran’s nuclear programme for later, a senior Iranian official said on Saturday.

Four ‌weeks since the United States and Israel suspended their bombing campaign against Iran, no deal has been reached to end a war that has caused the biggest disruption ever to global energy supplies, Reuters reported.

Iran has been blocking nearly all shipping from the Gulf apart from its own for more than two months. Last month the U.S. imposed its own blockade of ships from ⁠Iranian ports.

Trump said on Friday he was “not satisfied” with Iran’s latest proposal, without spelling out in detail which elements he opposes.

“They’re asking for things that I can’t agree to,” he told reporters at the White House.

Washington has repeatedly said it will not end the war without a deal that prevents Iran from ever obtaining a nuclear weapon, the primary aim Trump cited when he launched the strikes in February in the midst of nuclear talks. Iran says its nuclear programme is peaceful.

Speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss confidential diplomacy, the senior Iranian official said Tehran believed its ‌latest proposal ⁠to shelve nuclear talks for a later stage was a significant shift aimed at facilitating an agreement.

Under the proposal, the war would end with a guarantee that Israel and the United States would not attack again. Iran would open the strait, and the United States would lift its blockade.

Future talks would then be ⁠held on curbs to Iran’s nuclear programme in return for the lifting of sanctions, with Iran demanding Washington recognise its right to enrich uranium for peaceful purposes, even if it agrees to suspend it.

“Under this framework, negotiations ⁠over the more complicated nuclear issue have been moved to the final stage to create a more conducive atmosphere,” the official said.

Reuters and other news organisations already reported over the past week ⁠that Tehran was proposing to reopen the strait before nuclear issues were resolved; the official confirmed that this new timeline had now been spelled out in a formal proposal conveyed to the United States through mediators.