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UNDP warns Afghan economy to contract by 6% due to COVID-19

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(Last Updated On: November 11, 2020)

United Nations Development Program (UNDP) Afghanistan launched its latest COVID-19 impact assessment report on Wednesday and said the pandemic has set back Afghanistan’s economic growth by several years.

The report, the 4th since the coronavirus outbreak, exposed structural and resource gaps in responding to unforeseen events such as pandemics. The country had to reallocate resources from long-term development priorities to fighting this health crisis.

In a statement issued by the UNDP, the organization said the report, titled “Fiscal Options in Response to Coronavirus Crisis”, focused on the fiscal implications of COVID-19.

The UNDP stated it estimates that due to a combination of external and internal shocks, the Afghan economy will contract by around six percent in 2020.

“Assuming the recovery starts in 2021 and growth performance to be positive between 2021 and 2024, it will be moderate, and well below the pre-pandemic level.

“Without well thought-out recovery-oriented policies, this amounts to a cumulative loss of around 12.5 percent in real GDP by 2024,” read the statement.

UNDP said Afghanistan witnessed a sharp decline in revenues in 2020 due to low economic activity, trade disruption and weaker compliance brought on by the pandemic.

“The government had to adjust the revenue estimates downwards from Afs 209 billion (US$2.71 billion) in 2019 to Afs 144 billion (US$1.87 billion) during the mid-year budget review.”

UNDP stated it estimated an average of 17 percent decline in corporate tax revenue and 18 percent decline in personal income tax revenue.

“Tax on international trade will be the worst hit and revenues may decline to as low as 19 percent due to the decrease in imports, while tax revenue on goods and services might decline by 10 percent,” the statement read.

Meanwhile, UNDP stated the fiscal deficit is expected to increase to around four percent of GDP in 2020.

“The Government of Afghanistan needs to opt for policies and programmes to generate more revenue to address the fiscal deficit.

“Given the economic slowdown, a second wave of the pandemic, continued conflict, and an uncertain peace process and political environment, the country will continue to need grant support from the international community to address the fiscal deficit and maintain its current level of expenditure on basic services,” read the UNDP’s statement.

The organization also stated that additional grants need to be directed at driving and implementing reforms to improve the business regulatory environment, improve governance, encourage investment and strengthen the private sector.

According to the statement, the UNDP and other stated along with other international development partners, it would continue to support Afghanistan in the run up to the donor pledging conference later this month.

However they urged the Afghan government to address the immediate fiscal impact of the pandemic and help reverse its negative effects.

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IEA plans regional energy trade hub with Russian oil in mind

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(Last Updated On: May 3, 2024)

The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) has agreed with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to build a logistics hub in western Afghanistan aimed at making the war-torn nation a major logistics point for regional exports, including oil from Russia to South Asia, the country’s commerce minister said.

Following a meeting between representatives of the three countries in the Afghan capital last week, IEA’s acting commerce minister Nooruddin Azizi told Reuters that technical teams would draw up a written agreement within two months on the formal plans for the hub, which all three countries would invest in after six months of talks.

As foreign aid to Afghanistan falls and the predominantly agricultural economy is marred by persistent drought, its officially unrecognised IEA government has faced questions over how to fund development and avoid economic stagnation, Reuters reported.

Azizi said the new hub was part of broader efforts to take advantage of Afghanistan’s strategic location, once a thoroughfare for the ancient Silk Road trade route, lying between South and Central Asia and sharing borders with China and Iran.

“Based on our discussions, a logistics centre is going to be established in Herat province, which can connect the north to South Asia,” Azizi said, adding that the Taliban (IEA) was eyeing the millions of tons of oil they expected Russia would be selling in coming years to South Asian countries, particularly Pakistan, to pass through the new hub.

“The three countries have done their best to prove Afghanistan’s claim as a connectivity point,” he said.

“Reaching Pakistan through Afghanistan will be the best option,” Azizi added, saying they were focused on Russia’s petroleum exports and that Kazakhstan was also planning to export goods through Herat into South Asian markets.

Kazakhstan’s trade ministry said in a statement to Reuters that it wanted to develop roads and a railway through Afghanistan to connect with South Asia and the Gulf, with the hub serving as an important logistics point.

“The creation of the hub will allow for the development of multi-modal services by consolidating truck shipments in the dry port where they will be sorted and sent along railroads on the North-South corridor to sea ports in the Gulf, Pakistan, and Indian Ocean, towards India,” the statement said.

Azizi said the logistics hub’s initial capacity would be one million tons of oil but he did not give a date for when it would be operational.

Turkmenistan’s government did not immediately respond to a request for comment and the Russian government did not respond to a request for comment during a national holiday.

Pakistan’s foreign office and energy minister did not respond to a request for comment. Pakistan is a major trading partner with Afghanistan and has signed on to regional energy connectivity agreements, Reuters reported.

However, Islamabad has had strained relations with the IEA in recent years over accusations Afghanistan is harbouring anti-Pakistan militants, which Kabul denies.

Cash-strapped Pakistan last year became Russia’s latest customer, snapping up discounted crude that has been banned from European markets due to Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Afghanistan also buys oil, gas and wheat from Russia at discounted rates.

Azizi said that the IEA was also speaking with Chinese authorities on building a road through the remote, narrow Wakhan corridor that connects Afghanistan with China and that they hoped Afghanistan would eventually develop into a route for trade between China and Iran. He said Afghan commerce ministry officials had been recently been sent to China for training.

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Aziz discusses trade issues while on visit to Iran

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(Last Updated On: May 2, 2024)

Acting Minister of Commerce and Industry of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan Nooruddin Azizi arrived in Iran’s Sistan and Baluchistan Province on Thursday for a meeting on facilitating the process of economic cooperation between the two countries.

The ministry’s spokesman Abdulsalam Javadakhandzadaa said Thursday the minister discussed the development of trade and transit relations between Iran and Afghanistan – but with the focus on the province of Sistan and Baluchistan.

Aziz also discussed the need to strengthen processes for goods through Chabahar port and emphasized the need to resolve issues relating to this trade route.

According to Javadakhandzadaa officials of the two countries discussed the strengthening of commercial and economic cooperation, while Azizi requested that costs be lowered for goods and for land to be made available in Chabahar to Afghan businessmen and for railway facilities to be provided.

Both sides agreed that in order to develop trade between the two countries and to strengthen transit through Chabahar, a joint technical committee would be established on a provincial level and that issues will be followed up by the central committee.

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More trade contracts signed between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan

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(Last Updated On: May 1, 2024)

Uzbekistan has agreed to sign export contracts worth $44 million with Afghanistan, according to a report by the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Uzbekistan.

The contracts were signed during a three-day visit to Tashkent by a delegation of Afghan businessmen.

The two nations are also planning to form an Uzbekistan-Afghanistan Business Council, which will have 18 Afghan companies among its members.

Afghanistan’s import market is worth $7 billion. The goods that are most in demand with Afghan importers are agricultural products, processed food, textiles, leather, electrical components and construction materials.

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