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ICG spells out US policy challenges involving peace talks and Taliban

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While peace talks present an opportunity for the US to extricate itself from a decades-old conflict in Afghanistan, they will also pose one of the greatest foreign policy challenges for the Biden administration, the International Crisis Group reported in its latest briefing this week.

The ICG stated that after the February 2020 deal between the US and the Taliban, peace talks took six months to start – and have only inched forward slightly. According to the group in light of this, “it is far from clear where negotiations are headed.”

The group pointed out that in accordance with the agreement, the US agreed to withdraw international forces from Afghanistan in return for the Taliban cutting ties with terrorist organizations, reducing violence and entering negotiations with Afghanistan.

But while violence levels have remained high, it has also emerged that there are wide divergences among negotiating parties on substantive issues and the Taliban are resistant to scaling back attacks while talks proceed, the group’s briefing read.

“At the moment, discussions are virtually stalled while the parties wait for signals from the new US administration on its commitment, or lack thereof, to the nascent peace process.”

The ICG stated that a political settlement is the best solution and that there is a path open to achieving this – albeit a narrow path.

They urged the Biden administration however to urgently signal its commitment to continue supporting the peace process.

The group stated: “President Biden has little to lose in continuing to test the feasibility of reaching a political settlement. Conversely, an abandonment of negotiations would incur high costs: the likely return of the Taliban to unrestricted warfare (including targeting US personnel), as well as the loss of at least tacit support for US policy from Iran, Pakistan, Russia, China and other neighbours.”

But with this in mind, the ICG said the Biden administration will need to seek an extension to the troop withdrawal deadline.

“This is not enough time for the new administration to set its policy course and evaluate Taliban compliance with the counter-terrorism assurances it provided in the February deal.

“Nor is it sufficient time for the Afghan parties – who, for instance, spent three months negotiating a brief set of procedural rules for talks – to notch any meaningful agreements,” the group stated in its briefing.

They suggested this be extended by at least six months – also as the new administration needs to establish a regional diplomatic framework to support the peace process and the outcome of any peace settlement.

ICG pointed out that the new Biden administration also needs to determine whether it intends to maintain an indefinite, if small, military presence in Afghanistan for counter-terrorism purposes.

“A decision in favour of a persistent military presence would, at some point, be the death knell of the peace process because the Taliban are unlikely to consent to it,” ICG stated.

In addition, Russia, China and Iran would reject a continued US presence and could take steps to complicate it, the group stated.

“For Biden to keep troops in Afghanistan under those circumstances would make his administration the author of the next chapter of the so-called forever wars that began after the 11 September attacks, which will enter their third decade later this year,” the group stated.

However, it was suggested that the Biden administration’s top priority should be to keep the peace process going and buy the time it will need to face the decisions coming its way.

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US State Department: Afghanistan fails to meet minimum fiscal transparency standards

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The U.S. Department of State says Afghanistan’s ministries and other public-sector institutions failed to meet any of the minimum requirements for fiscal transparency during the review period.

In its 2026 Fiscal Transparency Report, released Tuesday, the State Department said no Afghan entity had published an executive budget proposal or an end-of-year report within a reasonable timeframe.

The report said that in the absence of a publicly available budget, there was no confirmation of government expenditures made to support public services. It also said Afghan institutions had not published timely information on public-sector debt obligations.

According to the report, publicly available revenue and expenditure figures did not correspond to actual revenues and expenditures, based on information gathered through contacts and the government’s inability to service public-sector debts.

However, some state-owned enterprises independently published information on their revenues and expenditures.

The State Department also said an entity calling itself the Supreme Audit Office, which announced that it would begin operating in 2022, had not clarified the legal basis for its activities and did not publish any audits or audit findings during the review period.

The report further noted that the IEA did not make public the budgets of their “military” and intelligence services.

The U.S. State Department recommended that Afghan ministries and public institutions improve fiscal transparency by publishing reliable budget documents on time, following internationally accepted budgeting principles, strengthening oversight of off-budget accounts, and making information on public-sector debt publicly available.

It also called for clearer laws governing natural-resource extraction and public procurement, as well as ensuring that any supreme audit institution operates independently and meets international standards.

Meanwhile, the Islamic Emirate’s spokesperson, Zabihullah Mujahid, said Afghanistan’s budget does not belong to any other country, and therefore there is no obligation to provide information to others about how it is spent.

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FAO warns water shortages and heat put Afghanistan’s agriculture under pressure

FAO assessed current conditions and prospects using climate forecasts, remote-sensing data and consultations with farming communities across all 34 provinces.

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The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) has warned that water shortages and above-average temperatures are placing increasing pressure on summer crops and grazing across Afghanistan.

In its August 2026 outlook for Afghanistan’s 2026/27 agricultural season, FAO assessed current conditions and prospects using climate forecasts, remote-sensing data and consultations with farming communities across all 34 provinces.

The agency said persistent water shortages, combined with high temperatures, are affecting agricultural conditions during the summer season and increasing pressure on crops and livestock.

FAO also warned that persistently high fertilizer prices could limit farmers’ ability to invest in the upcoming winter wheat season, potentially affecting production prospects.

Looking ahead, the report says a strengthening El Niño and the possible development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole could bring above-average precipitation during winter and spring.

Such conditions could improve water availability and boost prospects for agricultural production, but FAO cautioned that heavier rainfall could also increase the risk of floods, landslides, crop damage and livestock losses.

The agency said the latest outlook highlights the need for continued monitoring, anticipatory action and timely, practical climate and agricultural advisories to help farmers and livestock owners prepare for changing conditions.

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Hana raises concerns over Afghan women and children amid Iran’s expulsion policy

It said the risks are particularly serious for children born in Iran or those who have spent much of their lives there.

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The Hana Human Rights Organization has raised serious concerns over the situation of Afghan women and children in Iran, saying the country’s plan to regulate and expel undocumented Afghan nationals remains in effect.

According to Hana, Iran’s Ministry of Interior has confirmed that the “Plan for the Regulation and Expulsion of Unauthorized Afghan Nationals” has not been suspended.

The organization said the policy is continuing amid the consequences of armed conflict and an increasingly securitized environment in Iran, which it said has heightened the vulnerability of Afghan migrants and asylum seekers.

Hana said it has previously documented cases involving the arrest and mistreatment of Afghan nationals, deportations, family separation and difficulties obtaining civil documentation and accessing essential services.

The organization warned that continued implementation of the expulsion policy could worsen these problems.

Hana expressed particular concern for Afghan children under 18, stressing that children’s rights are independent of their parents’ migration status.

It said irregular residence should not, by itself, justify a child’s detention, separation from family or removal without an individualized assessment. Any decision affecting a child, it added, should prioritize the child’s best interests, preserve family unity and provide additional safeguards for unaccompanied and separated children.

The organization warned that large-scale expulsions without clear procedures to identify and protect children at risk could result in family separation, disruption to education, lack of legal protection, difficulties establishing legal identity, exploitation and return to unsafe conditions.

It said the risks are particularly serious for children born in Iran or those who have spent much of their lives there.

Hana also highlighted gender-specific risks facing Afghan women and girls. It warned that deportation to Afghanistan without assessing risks linked to gender, previous political or social activities, family circumstances and access to support networks could expose them to serious human rights violations.

The organization said being classified as an “unauthorized foreign national” should not replace an individual assessment of a person’s protection needs and the risks they may face upon return.

Hana stressed that while states have the authority to regulate the entry and residence of foreign nationals, migration enforcement must comply with international human rights principles, including non-refoulement, the prohibition of collective expulsion, access to individualized procedures and respect for family unity.

It called for heightened protection for women and children, warning that continuing the expulsion plan without effective legal and protection safeguards could lead to further human rights violations against Afghan migrants and asylum seekers in Iran.

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