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Afghanistan’s GDP to expand by 3% in 2021: ADB

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The Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts that Afghanistan’s gross domestic product GDP growth will increase by 3% in 2021 and 4% in 2022 after the normalization of business activity and market sentiment.

In its Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2021 released on Wednesday, the ADB stated that Afghanistan’s economic growth is expected to recover this year and accelerate next year after a sharp decline in 2020 from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and continued violence and instability.

“Afghanistan’s economy experienced unprecedented disruption in 2020 due to COVID-19 pandemic, political instability and continued violence, which cut remittances, trade, and revenue,” said ADB Country Director for Afghanistan Narendra Singru. 

“With a successful COVID-19 vaccine rollout and post-pandemic recovery, the country should be on track to achieve economic growth this year and in 2022 as business activity and market sentiment normalize,” Singru said.

According to the report, inflation more than doubled from 2.3% in 2019 to 5.6% in 2020 driven by higher food prices. Food price inflation in 2020 was estimated at 10% with the highest spike recorded in April when border closure and panic buying propelled it to 16.6%. Inflation is projected to moderate to 5.0% in 2021 and 4.0% in 2022 as food supplies improve.

However, risks remain, including implementing vaccinations in remote and insecure areas, conflict, criminality, corruption, political instability, and broader social fragility. If unaddressed, these could weigh heavily on the economy and impede recovery.

“Supporting the recovery of micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) hard hit by the pandemic is pivotal to safeguarding workers’ incomes and livelihoods, according to the report. Before the pandemic, MSMEs were estimated to provide nearly 1.6 million service and industry jobs. The government approved a 2-year support package worth $295 million in October 2020 to improve business conditions and implemented countercyclical measures that include support for MSMEs,” the report read.

The ADB suggests that Afghanistan should facilitate MSME access to markets by developing infrastructure, improving security, combating corruption, simplifying regulation, strengthening property rights and contract enforcement, and promoting innovation and better labor skills in order to improve the business environment.

“Increasing access to credit and further expanding the formal bank sector is also crucial,” the organization said.

“ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. Established in 1966, it is owned by 68 members—49 from the region,” the report concluded.

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Pakistan says trade with Afghanistan will remain suspended until security assurances

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Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry spokesperson, Tahir Andarabi, stated on Friday that trade with Afghanistan will remain suspended until Islamabad receives firm assurances from Kabul.

The crossings “will remain closed until we receive firm assurances from the Afghan side that violence, violent elements, and terrorists from their soil will not cross over into Pakistan to perpetrate the crimes they have committed,” Andarabi said.

He emphasized that the concern is not limited to the TTP, but also includes Afghan nationals involved in attacks inside Pakistan.

The crossings were closed on October 12 following Pakistani airstrikes in Afghanistan and deadly clashes near the Durand Line.

Despite the closure, Pakistan has allowed the return of refugees and the passage of humanitarian assistance.

Islamabad has repeatedly cited militancy as a key reason for restricting movement along the Durand Line and has called for stronger cooperation from Kabul to prevent attacks and ensure regional security.

The Islamic Emirate has, however, has said it cannot be held responsible for security inside Pakistan.

IEA spokesman Zabihullah Mujahid recently said that trade routes will reopen when strong assurances are obtained from the Pakistani government that it will not use closure as a mean to apply political pressure.

 

 

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Ariana Afghan Airlines boost air trade with arrival of new cargo aircraft

The Ariana Afghan Airlines press office says this achievement marks an important stride toward strengthening national trade and promoting Afghanistan’s path to economic self-reliance.

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Ariana Afghan Airlines has announced a major development in the country’s air-transport sector, confirming that a long-awaited charter cargo aircraft has been officially contracted and will arrive in Afghanistan soon. The move is being hailed as a “significant and facilitative breakthrough” for national traders.

Bakht-ur-Rahman Sharafat, the head of Ariana Afghan Airlines, says the finalization of this contract reflects the leadership’s firm commitment to supporting Afghanistan’s growing trade sector. “This new cargo aircraft is part of Ariana’s broader plan to strengthen exports and provide fast, reliable, and competitive air-transport services for Afghan traders,” Sharafat stated.

According to Ariana officials, the addition of the new cargo aircraft will greatly enhance commercial air-transport services. It is expected to ensure timely delivery of goods, reduce transportation costs, and significantly increase the country’s export capacity.

Economic experts believe this step will not only offer substantial facilities to traders but will also play a key role in Afghanistan’s economic development and the expansion of its export markets.

Ariana’s leadership says the cargo aircraft will open new avenues for accelerating and securing the movement of both export and import goods, while fostering healthy competition within the nation’s aviation sector.

The Ariana Afghan Airlines press office says this achievement marks an important stride toward strengthening national trade and promoting Afghanistan’s path to economic self-reliance.

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IEA demands assurances from Islamabad before trade routes reopen

Mujahid noted that Afghanistan is currently meeting its essential import needs through a range of regional partners, and therefore will not rush to resume commerce with Pakistan without clear assurances.

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The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) has said that the reopening of trade and transit routes with Pakistan will depend on Islamabad providing firm guarantees that these corridors will not again be used as instruments of political pressure.

In a statement released on social media, IEA spokesperson Zabihullah Mujahid accused Pakistan of having “illegally and politically” closed key border routes in recent months, a move he said caused “serious harm to the people on both sides of the Durand Line.”

Mujahid noted that Afghanistan is currently meeting its essential import needs through a range of regional partners, and therefore will not rush to resume commerce with Pakistan without clear assurances.

He said the IEA wants trade to take place in a “dignified and mutually beneficial” manner and made clear that any reopening will require Islamabad to commit to keeping commercial corridors free from political interference.

“Trade routes with Pakistan will only be reopened once strong assurances are received from the Pakistani government,” he said, adding that the guarantees must ensure Pakistan cannot again weaponise transit access or disrupt legitimate trade.

According to the IEA, the priority is to safeguard traders’ rights, stabilise cross-border transit, and ensure that the economic needs of the population are not influenced by political disputes.

The IEA said any step toward reopening the routes must be built on mutual respect and a long-term commitment to cooperation.

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