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Afghanistan’s GDP to expand by 3% in 2021: ADB

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(Last Updated On: April 28, 2021)

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) forecasts that Afghanistan’s gross domestic product GDP growth will increase by 3% in 2021 and 4% in 2022 after the normalization of business activity and market sentiment.

In its Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2021 released on Wednesday, the ADB stated that Afghanistan’s economic growth is expected to recover this year and accelerate next year after a sharp decline in 2020 from the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic and continued violence and instability.

“Afghanistan’s economy experienced unprecedented disruption in 2020 due to COVID-19 pandemic, political instability and continued violence, which cut remittances, trade, and revenue,” said ADB Country Director for Afghanistan Narendra Singru. 

“With a successful COVID-19 vaccine rollout and post-pandemic recovery, the country should be on track to achieve economic growth this year and in 2022 as business activity and market sentiment normalize,” Singru said.

According to the report, inflation more than doubled from 2.3% in 2019 to 5.6% in 2020 driven by higher food prices. Food price inflation in 2020 was estimated at 10% with the highest spike recorded in April when border closure and panic buying propelled it to 16.6%. Inflation is projected to moderate to 5.0% in 2021 and 4.0% in 2022 as food supplies improve.

However, risks remain, including implementing vaccinations in remote and insecure areas, conflict, criminality, corruption, political instability, and broader social fragility. If unaddressed, these could weigh heavily on the economy and impede recovery.

“Supporting the recovery of micro, small, and medium-sized enterprises (MSMEs) hard hit by the pandemic is pivotal to safeguarding workers’ incomes and livelihoods, according to the report. Before the pandemic, MSMEs were estimated to provide nearly 1.6 million service and industry jobs. The government approved a 2-year support package worth $295 million in October 2020 to improve business conditions and implemented countercyclical measures that include support for MSMEs,” the report read.

The ADB suggests that Afghanistan should facilitate MSME access to markets by developing infrastructure, improving security, combating corruption, simplifying regulation, strengthening property rights and contract enforcement, and promoting innovation and better labor skills in order to improve the business environment.

“Increasing access to credit and further expanding the formal bank sector is also crucial,” the organization said.

“ADB is committed to achieving a prosperous, inclusive, resilient, and sustainable Asia and the Pacific while sustaining its efforts to eradicate extreme poverty. Established in 1966, it is owned by 68 members—49 from the region,” the report concluded.

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IEA plans regional energy trade hub with Russian oil in mind

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(Last Updated On: May 3, 2024)

The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan (IEA) has agreed with Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan to build a logistics hub in western Afghanistan aimed at making the war-torn nation a major logistics point for regional exports, including oil from Russia to South Asia, the country’s commerce minister said.

Following a meeting between representatives of the three countries in the Afghan capital last week, IEA’s acting commerce minister Nooruddin Azizi told Reuters that technical teams would draw up a written agreement within two months on the formal plans for the hub, which all three countries would invest in after six months of talks.

As foreign aid to Afghanistan falls and the predominantly agricultural economy is marred by persistent drought, its officially unrecognised IEA government has faced questions over how to fund development and avoid economic stagnation, Reuters reported.

Azizi said the new hub was part of broader efforts to take advantage of Afghanistan’s strategic location, once a thoroughfare for the ancient Silk Road trade route, lying between South and Central Asia and sharing borders with China and Iran.

“Based on our discussions, a logistics centre is going to be established in Herat province, which can connect the north to South Asia,” Azizi said, adding that the Taliban (IEA) was eyeing the millions of tons of oil they expected Russia would be selling in coming years to South Asian countries, particularly Pakistan, to pass through the new hub.

“The three countries have done their best to prove Afghanistan’s claim as a connectivity point,” he said.

“Reaching Pakistan through Afghanistan will be the best option,” Azizi added, saying they were focused on Russia’s petroleum exports and that Kazakhstan was also planning to export goods through Herat into South Asian markets.

Kazakhstan’s trade ministry said in a statement to Reuters that it wanted to develop roads and a railway through Afghanistan to connect with South Asia and the Gulf, with the hub serving as an important logistics point.

“The creation of the hub will allow for the development of multi-modal services by consolidating truck shipments in the dry port where they will be sorted and sent along railroads on the North-South corridor to sea ports in the Gulf, Pakistan, and Indian Ocean, towards India,” the statement said.

Azizi said the logistics hub’s initial capacity would be one million tons of oil but he did not give a date for when it would be operational.

Turkmenistan’s government did not immediately respond to a request for comment and the Russian government did not respond to a request for comment during a national holiday.

Pakistan’s foreign office and energy minister did not respond to a request for comment. Pakistan is a major trading partner with Afghanistan and has signed on to regional energy connectivity agreements, Reuters reported.

However, Islamabad has had strained relations with the IEA in recent years over accusations Afghanistan is harbouring anti-Pakistan militants, which Kabul denies.

Cash-strapped Pakistan last year became Russia’s latest customer, snapping up discounted crude that has been banned from European markets due to Russia’s war on Ukraine.

Afghanistan also buys oil, gas and wheat from Russia at discounted rates.

Azizi said that the IEA was also speaking with Chinese authorities on building a road through the remote, narrow Wakhan corridor that connects Afghanistan with China and that they hoped Afghanistan would eventually develop into a route for trade between China and Iran. He said Afghan commerce ministry officials had been recently been sent to China for training.

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Aziz discusses trade issues while on visit to Iran

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(Last Updated On: May 2, 2024)

Acting Minister of Commerce and Industry of the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan Nooruddin Azizi arrived in Iran’s Sistan and Baluchistan Province on Thursday for a meeting on facilitating the process of economic cooperation between the two countries.

The ministry’s spokesman Abdulsalam Javadakhandzadaa said Thursday the minister discussed the development of trade and transit relations between Iran and Afghanistan – but with the focus on the province of Sistan and Baluchistan.

Aziz also discussed the need to strengthen processes for goods through Chabahar port and emphasized the need to resolve issues relating to this trade route.

According to Javadakhandzadaa officials of the two countries discussed the strengthening of commercial and economic cooperation, while Azizi requested that costs be lowered for goods and for land to be made available in Chabahar to Afghan businessmen and for railway facilities to be provided.

Both sides agreed that in order to develop trade between the two countries and to strengthen transit through Chabahar, a joint technical committee would be established on a provincial level and that issues will be followed up by the central committee.

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More trade contracts signed between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan

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(Last Updated On: May 1, 2024)

Uzbekistan has agreed to sign export contracts worth $44 million with Afghanistan, according to a report by the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Uzbekistan.

The contracts were signed during a three-day visit to Tashkent by a delegation of Afghan businessmen.

The two nations are also planning to form an Uzbekistan-Afghanistan Business Council, which will have 18 Afghan companies among its members.

Afghanistan’s import market is worth $7 billion. The goods that are most in demand with Afghan importers are agricultural products, processed food, textiles, leather, electrical components and construction materials.

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