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Turkey faces election runoff, Erdogan seen with momentum

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President Tayyip Erdogan led comfortably on Monday after the first round of Turkey’s presidential election, with his rival facing an uphill struggle to prevent the president extending his rule into a third decade in a runoff vote on May 28, Reuters reported.

Turkish assets weakened on the news, which showed Erdogan only just below the 50% threshold needed to avoid sending the NATO-member country to a second round of a presidential election viewed as passing judgment on his autocratic rule.

Erdogan’s People’s Alliance, comprising his Islamist-rooted AK Party and its nationalist partners, also appeared set to win a majority in Turkey’s new parliament with 321 of the 600 seats, further boosting his chances in the presidential runoff.

“The winner has undoubtedly been our country,” Erdogan said in a speech to cheering supporters at the AKP headquarters in the capital Ankara overnight.

With most votes counted in the presidential contest, Erdogan had 49.51% and his main opposition rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu 44.88%, High Election Board chairman Ahmet Yener told reporters. Turnout was a very high 88.8%, read the report.

Further boosting Erdogan’s prospects, nationalist candidate Sinan Ogan, who placed third in Sunday’s election, told Reuters in an interview he would only endorse Kilicdaroglu in the runoff if the latter ruled out any concessions to a pro-Kurdish party, parliament’s third largest.

That party, the HDP, backs Kilicdaroglu but is accused of ties to Kurdish militants, which it denies.

The 2.8 million voters who backed Ogan in the first round could prove crucial for Kilicdaroglu if he is to defeat Erdogan.

Opinion polls had shown Erdogan, 69, trailing Kilicdaroglu, but the outcome suggested that the president and his AK Party were able to rally conservative voters despite a cost-of-living crisis and soaring inflation, Reuters reported.

Kilicdaroglu, head of a six-party alliance, vowed to prevail in the runoff and accused Erdogan’s party of interfering with the counting and reporting of results. He called on his supporters to be patient, but they were downcast on Monday.

“We are sad, we are depressed about the whole situation. We expected different results,” said commuter Volkan Atilgan as he sat near a ferry station in Istanbul. “God willing, we will win this victory in the second round.”

By contrast, Erdogan supporters were jubilant as the results filtered out, with cyber security engineer Feyyaz Balcu, 23, confident that Erdogan could fix Turkey’s economic woes.

“It is very important for all Turkish people that Erdogan wins the elections. He is a world leader and all the Turks and Muslims want Erdogan as president,” he said.

The prospect of five more years of Erdogan’s rule will upset civil rights activists campaigning for reforms to undo the damage they say he has done to Turkey’s democracy. He says he respects democracy.

Thousands of political prisoners and activists could be released if the opposition prevails, Reuters reported.

Stocks fell, the lira was near a two-month low, sovereign dollar bonds fell and the cost of insuring exposure to Turkey’s debt spiked. Analysts voiced concern about the uncertainty and diminishing prospects of a return to economic policy orthodoxy.

“Erdogan has now a clear psychological lead against the opposition,” said Teneo co-president Wolfango Piccoli. “Erdogan will likely double down on his national security focused narratives over the next two weeks.”

The election has been closely watched in Europe, Washington, Moscow, and across the region, where Erdogan has asserted Turkish power while strengthening ties to Russia and putting strain on Ankara’s traditional alliance with the United States, Reuters reported.

Erdogan has cordial relations with President Vladimir Putin and his strong showing is likely to encourage the Kremlin but unnerve the Biden administration, as well as many European and leaders who had troubled ties with Erdogan.

White House spokesperson John Kirby said President Joe Biden was looking forward to working with whoever won the vote. The Kremlin said it expected Russia’s cooperation with Turkey to continue and deepen whoever wins.

Analysts saw Middle Eastern governments preferring continuity over change after Erdogan’s showing, regarding him as part of an acceptable status quo in a tumultuous region.

The opposition had expected to benefit from voter anger at economic woes after an unorthodox policy of low interest rates triggered a lira crisis and soaring inflation. A slow government response to earthquakes that killed 50,000 people in February had also been expected to influence voters.

Kilicdaroglu, 74, has pledged to revive democracy after years of state repression, return to orthodox economic policies, empower institutions that lost autonomy under Erdogan and rebuild frail ties with the West, read the report.

The political uncertainty is expected to weigh on financial markets over the next two weeks. The lira stood at 19.67 to the dollar at 1348 GMT, after reaching 19.70 in earlier trading, its weakest since a record low of 19.80 hit in March.

The cost of insuring against Turkey defaulting on its sovereign debts surged to a six-month high, jumping 105 basis points (bps) from Friday’s levels to 597 bps, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, Reuters reported.

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Libyan army’s chief dies in plane crash in Turkey

Turkish Justice Minister Yilmaz Tunc said an investigation into the crash was under way.

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The Libyan army’s chief of staff, Mohammed Ali Ahmed Al-Haddad, died in a plane crash on Tuesday after leaving Turkey’s capital Ankara, the prime minister of Libya’s internationally recognised government said, adding that four others were on the jet as well, Reuters reported.

“This followed a tragic and painful incident while they were returning from an official trip from the Turkish city of Ankara. This grave loss is a great loss for the nation, for the military institution, and for all the people,” Libyan Prime Minister Abdulhamid Dbeibah said in a statement.

He said the commander of Libya’s ground forces, the director of its military manufacturing authority, an adviser to the chief of staff, and a photographer from the chief of staff’s office were also on the aircraft.

Turkish Interior Minister Ali Yerlikaya said on social media platform X that the plane had taken off from Ankara’s Esenboga Airport at 1710 GMT en route to Tripoli, and that radio contact was lost at 1752 GMT. He said authorities found the plane’s wreckage near the Kesikkavak village in Ankara’s Haymana district.

He added that the Dassault Falcon 50-type jet had made a request for an emergency landing while over Haymana, but that no contact was established.

The cause of the crash was not immediately clear.

Turkish Justice Minister Yilmaz Tunc said an investigation into the crash was under way.

The Tripoli-based Government of National Unity said in a statement that the prime minister directed the defence minister to send an official delegation to Ankara to follow up on proceedings.

Walid Ellafi, state minister of political affairs and communication for the GNU, told broadcaster Libya Alahrar that it was not clear when a crash report would be ready, but that the jet was a leased Maltese aircraft. He added that officials did not have “sufficient information regarding its ownership or technical history,” but said this would be investigated.

Libya’s U.N.-recognised Government of National Unity announced official mourning across the country for three days, read the report.

Turkey’s defence ministry had announced Haddad’s visit earlier, saying he had met with Turkish Defence Minister Yasar Guler and Turkish counterpart Selcuk Bayraktaroglu, along with other Turkish military commanders.

The crash occurred a day after Turkey’s parliament passed a decision to extend the mandate of Turkish soldiers’ deployment in Libya by two more years.

NATO member Turkey has militarily and politically supported Libya’s Tripoli-based, internationally recognised government. In 2020, it sent military personnel there to train and support its government and later reached a maritime demarcation accord, which has been disputed by Egypt and Greece.

In 2022, Ankara and Tripoli also signed a preliminary accord on energy exploration, which Egypt and Greece also oppose, Reuters reported.

However, Turkey has recently switched course under its “One Libya” policy, ramping up contacts with Libya’s eastern faction as well.

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Trump administration recalls dozens of diplomats in ‘America First’ push

The State Department declined to name those affected, with a senior official calling the recalls a routine step for new administrations.

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The Trump administration is recalling nearly 30 U.S. ambassadors and senior career diplomats to ensure embassies align with President Donald Trump’s “America First” agenda, a move critics say could weaken U.S. credibility abroad.

The State Department declined to name those affected, with a senior official calling the recalls a routine step for new administrations. The official said ambassadors are the president’s representatives and must advance his policy priorities.

However, officials familiar with the matter said the recalls largely affect career Foreign Service officers posted to smaller countries, where ambassadors are traditionally non-partisan. Those ordered back to Washington were encouraged to seek other roles within the State Department.

The American Foreign Service Association said some diplomats were notified by phone without explanation, calling the process “highly irregular” and warning that such actions risk harming morale and U.S. effectiveness overseas. The State Department did not respond to the criticism.

The move, first reported by Politico, comes as Trump seeks to place loyalists in senior roles during his second term, after facing resistance from the foreign policy establishment in his first.

Democrats have criticised the decision, noting that around 80 ambassadorial posts remain vacant. Senator Jeanne Shaheen said the recalls undermine U.S. leadership and benefit rivals such as China and Russia.

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Trump plans expanded immigration crackdown in 2026 despite backlash

The plans come amid rising public unease over aggressive tactics, including neighborhood raids and the detention of some U.S. citizens.

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U.S. President Donald Trump is preparing to significantly expand his immigration crackdown in 2026, backed by billions of dollars in new funding, even as political opposition grows ahead of next year’s midterm elections.

ICE and U.S. Customs and Border Protection are set to receive an additional $170 billion through September 2029, enabling the administration to hire thousands of new agents, expand detention facilities and increase enforcement actions, including more workplace raids. While immigration agents have already been surged into major U.S. cities, many economically critical workplaces were largely spared in 2025.

The plans come amid rising public unease over aggressive tactics, including neighborhood raids and the detention of some U.S. citizens. Trump’s approval rating on immigration has fallen from 50% in March to 41% in mid-December, according to recent polling.

The administration has also revoked temporary legal status for hundreds of thousands of Haitian, Venezuelan and Afghan migrants, expanding the pool of people eligible for deportation.

About 622,000 immigrants have been deported since Trump took office in January, short of his goal of 1 million deportations per year.

White House border czar Tom Homan said arrests will increase sharply next year as staffing and detention capacity grow. Critics warn that expanded workplace enforcement could raise labor costs and deepen political and economic backlash ahead of the elections.

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