World
Turkey faces election runoff, Erdogan seen with momentum
President Tayyip Erdogan led comfortably on Monday after the first round of Turkey’s presidential election, with his rival facing an uphill struggle to prevent the president extending his rule into a third decade in a runoff vote on May 28, Reuters reported.
Turkish assets weakened on the news, which showed Erdogan only just below the 50% threshold needed to avoid sending the NATO-member country to a second round of a presidential election viewed as passing judgment on his autocratic rule.
Erdogan’s People’s Alliance, comprising his Islamist-rooted AK Party and its nationalist partners, also appeared set to win a majority in Turkey’s new parliament with 321 of the 600 seats, further boosting his chances in the presidential runoff.
“The winner has undoubtedly been our country,” Erdogan said in a speech to cheering supporters at the AKP headquarters in the capital Ankara overnight.
With most votes counted in the presidential contest, Erdogan had 49.51% and his main opposition rival Kemal Kilicdaroglu 44.88%, High Election Board chairman Ahmet Yener told reporters. Turnout was a very high 88.8%, read the report.
Further boosting Erdogan’s prospects, nationalist candidate Sinan Ogan, who placed third in Sunday’s election, told Reuters in an interview he would only endorse Kilicdaroglu in the runoff if the latter ruled out any concessions to a pro-Kurdish party, parliament’s third largest.
That party, the HDP, backs Kilicdaroglu but is accused of ties to Kurdish militants, which it denies.
The 2.8 million voters who backed Ogan in the first round could prove crucial for Kilicdaroglu if he is to defeat Erdogan.
Opinion polls had shown Erdogan, 69, trailing Kilicdaroglu, but the outcome suggested that the president and his AK Party were able to rally conservative voters despite a cost-of-living crisis and soaring inflation, Reuters reported.
Kilicdaroglu, head of a six-party alliance, vowed to prevail in the runoff and accused Erdogan’s party of interfering with the counting and reporting of results. He called on his supporters to be patient, but they were downcast on Monday.
“We are sad, we are depressed about the whole situation. We expected different results,” said commuter Volkan Atilgan as he sat near a ferry station in Istanbul. “God willing, we will win this victory in the second round.”
By contrast, Erdogan supporters were jubilant as the results filtered out, with cyber security engineer Feyyaz Balcu, 23, confident that Erdogan could fix Turkey’s economic woes.
“It is very important for all Turkish people that Erdogan wins the elections. He is a world leader and all the Turks and Muslims want Erdogan as president,” he said.
The prospect of five more years of Erdogan’s rule will upset civil rights activists campaigning for reforms to undo the damage they say he has done to Turkey’s democracy. He says he respects democracy.
Thousands of political prisoners and activists could be released if the opposition prevails, Reuters reported.
Stocks fell, the lira was near a two-month low, sovereign dollar bonds fell and the cost of insuring exposure to Turkey’s debt spiked. Analysts voiced concern about the uncertainty and diminishing prospects of a return to economic policy orthodoxy.
“Erdogan has now a clear psychological lead against the opposition,” said Teneo co-president Wolfango Piccoli. “Erdogan will likely double down on his national security focused narratives over the next two weeks.”
The election has been closely watched in Europe, Washington, Moscow, and across the region, where Erdogan has asserted Turkish power while strengthening ties to Russia and putting strain on Ankara’s traditional alliance with the United States, Reuters reported.
Erdogan has cordial relations with President Vladimir Putin and his strong showing is likely to encourage the Kremlin but unnerve the Biden administration, as well as many European and leaders who had troubled ties with Erdogan.
White House spokesperson John Kirby said President Joe Biden was looking forward to working with whoever won the vote. The Kremlin said it expected Russia’s cooperation with Turkey to continue and deepen whoever wins.
Analysts saw Middle Eastern governments preferring continuity over change after Erdogan’s showing, regarding him as part of an acceptable status quo in a tumultuous region.
The opposition had expected to benefit from voter anger at economic woes after an unorthodox policy of low interest rates triggered a lira crisis and soaring inflation. A slow government response to earthquakes that killed 50,000 people in February had also been expected to influence voters.
Kilicdaroglu, 74, has pledged to revive democracy after years of state repression, return to orthodox economic policies, empower institutions that lost autonomy under Erdogan and rebuild frail ties with the West, read the report.
The political uncertainty is expected to weigh on financial markets over the next two weeks. The lira stood at 19.67 to the dollar at 1348 GMT, after reaching 19.70 in earlier trading, its weakest since a record low of 19.80 hit in March.
The cost of insuring against Turkey defaulting on its sovereign debts surged to a six-month high, jumping 105 basis points (bps) from Friday’s levels to 597 bps, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence, Reuters reported.
World
Putin visits India for first time since 2022 Ukraine invasion
Russian President Vladimir Putin will begin a two-day trip to India on Thursday, his first since launching the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, as Moscow seeks to reinforce defense and trade ties with New Delhi amid rising pressure from the Trump administration over India’s continued purchases of Russian oil.
Putin will travel with a high-level delegation that includes Defense Minister Andrei Belousov.
Media reports suggest the two countries may revisit a long-delayed fighter jet agreement during the visit.
India’s Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to host Putin for a private dinner on Thursday, followed by a summit meeting and business engagements on Friday.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Russia’s S-400 air defense systems would be a “significant” point of discussion, underscoring the central role of military cooperation in the relationship. India has so far received three of the five S-400 units ordered in 2018, with remaining shipments delayed by Western sanctions and supply disruptions linked to the war in Ukraine.
Reports also indicate that Moscow may propose jointly manufacturing its Su-57 fighter jet in India. Russia remains a major source of India’s defense equipment, though its share of India’s arms imports has declined as New Delhi expands domestic production.
The visit comes shortly after U.S. President Donald Trump imposed 50% tariffs on most Indian exports, arguing that India’s reliance on discounted Russian crude indirectly supports Moscow’s war effort. India has emerged as a major buyer of Russian oil since 2022, saving billions of dollars, though it has recently scaled back purchases as Washington tightened sanctions on producers such as Rosneft and Lukoil.
Indian officials worry that new defense or energy deals with Moscow could trigger additional retaliation from Washington at a sensitive moment in U.S.–India trade talks.
Speaking to Indian media, Peskov dismissed concerns over U.S. measures. “What matters to us is maintaining and increasing our business with India without interference,” he said.
Analysts say neither country is likely to abandon the relationship. Even if India further reduces its intake of Russian crude, Moscow remains indispensable as a supplier of parts for India’s large stock of Russian-made military platforms.
“There may be some reduction in energy purchases under U.S. pressure,” said Nandan Unnikrishnan of the Observer Research Foundation in New Delhi, “but the overall direction of the ties will be maintained because both countries need each other at the strategic level.”
Bilateral trade reached $68.7 billion in 2024–25, nearly six times the pre-pandemic figure, though Indian exports accounted for less than $5 billion. New Delhi has been pressing Moscow to open more space for Indian pharmaceuticals, automobiles and service-sector companies.
Analysts say the visit gives both leaders an opportunity to assess the geopolitical landscape, including the war in Ukraine, and signal continuity in the partnership.
“For India, the optics underscore its commitment to strategic autonomy, and for Putin—who rarely travels—the trip highlights the importance he places on the relationship,” said Harsh V. Pant of King’s College London.
A senior Indian Foreign Ministry official, speaking anonymously, described Russia–India ties as among the “most stable relationships in modern times,” urging observers to view the visit in its bilateral context.
“This is just another annual summit between two countries with a steady relationship,” the official said.
World
Russia says no Ukraine compromise after five-hour Putin meeting with Trump envoys
The late-night meeting at the Kremlin brought together Putin, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner.
Russia and the United States failed to reach a compromise on a potential peace deal to end the war in Ukraine following five hours of talks between President Vladimir Putin and U.S. President Donald Trump’s top envoys, the Kremlin said on Wednesday.
The late-night meeting at the Kremlin brought together Putin, Trump’s special envoy Steve Witkoff, and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner. The discussions stretched past midnight but produced no breakthrough, according to Kremlin foreign policy aide Yuri Ushakov.
“Compromises have not yet been found,” Ushakov told reporters. “There is still a lot of work to be done.”
He said Putin reacted negatively to some U.S. proposals and that the two sides remained divided on key issues, including the “territorial problem” — Russia’s claim to the entire Donbas region.
Ukraine continues to control roughly 5,000 square kilometers of territory that Moscow asserts as its own, although almost all countries recognize Donbas as part of Ukraine.
Witkoff later visited the U.S. Embassy in Moscow to brief the White House, Ushakov said.
While describing the talks as “constructive,” Ushakov stressed that no meeting between Putin and Trump is planned at this stage. He added that both sides had agreed not to disclose further details of the discussions.
Trump, speaking earlier in Washington, called the conflict “a mess” and said his envoys were in Moscow to explore whether a settlement was possible. He cited casualty estimates of 25,000 to 30,000 per month in the ongoing war.
Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, triggering the most severe confrontation between Moscow and the West since the Cold War.
Concerns Among European Allies
The talks come amid unease in European capitals after a leaked set of 28 draft U.S. peace proposals appeared in November, prompting fears that Washington was leaning too far toward Moscow’s demands. European powers subsequently drafted counter-proposals, and U.S. and Ukrainian officials said they had produced an “updated and refined peace framework” during follow-up discussions in Geneva.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, speaking in Dublin, said he feared the U.S. might lose interest in the peace process and warned against negotiations taking place “behind Ukraine’s back.”
“There will be no easy solutions,” he said. “It is important that everything is fair and open.”
Just hours before meeting Witkoff and Kushner, Putin said Russia did not seek war with Europe but warned that any conflict would end “so swiftly” that negotiations afterward would be meaningless. He also threatened to cut Ukraine’s access to the sea in response to recent drone attacks on Russia’s “shadow fleet” in the Black Sea.
Ukraine’s foreign minister, Andrii Sybiha, said Putin’s remarks showed he was not prepared to end the war.
World
Pope Leo: Palestinian state ‘only’ solution to Israeli conflict
Leo, who usually prefers using careful, diplomatic language, ramped up criticism earlier this year of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza.
Pope Leo said on Sunday that the only solution in the decades-long conflict between Israel and the Palestinian people must include a Palestinian state, reaffirming the Vatican’s position.
“We all know that at this time Israel still does not accept that solution, but we see it as the only solution,” Leo, the first U.S. pope, told journalists on a flight from Turkey to Lebanon during his first in-flight press conference.
“We are also friends with Israel and we are seeking to be a mediating voice between the two parties that might help them close in on a solution with justice for everyone,” added the pope, speaking in Italian.
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has reaffirmed opposition to a Palestinian state after even its biggest ally the U.S. indicated support for Palestinian independence.
Leo spoke in a brief eight-minute press conference focused on his visit to Turkey, which he visited from Thursday to Sunday on his first overseas trip since election in May as leader of the 1.4 billion-member Catholic Church.
The pope said he and Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan discussed both the Israel-Palestinian and Ukraine-Russia conflicts. Turkey has an important role to play helping end both wars, Leo said.
During his visit to Turkey, the pope warned that humanity’s future was at risk because of the world’s unusual number of bloody conflicts and condemned violence in the name of religion.
Leo, who usually prefers using careful, diplomatic language, ramped up criticism earlier this year of Israel’s military campaign in Gaza.
Turkey is predominantly Muslim but is also home to Ecumenical Patriarch Bartholomew, spiritual leader of the world’s 260 million Orthodox Christians.
Leo praised Turkey as an example of religious co-existence.
“People of different religions are able to live in peace,” said the pope. “That is one example of what I think we all would be looking for throughout the world.”
Leo is visiting Lebanon until Tuesday, when he returns to Rome.
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