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Where are Russia’s top generals? Rumors swirl after mercenary mutiny

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(Last Updated On: June 29, 2023)

Russia’s most senior generals have dropped out of public view following a failed mercenary mutiny aimed at toppling the top brass, amid a drive by President Vladimir Putin to reassert his authority.

Unconfirmed reports say at least one person has been arrested, Reuters reported.

Armed forces chief of staff General Valery Gerasimov has not appeared in public or on state TV since the aborted mutiny on Saturday when mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin demanded Gerasimov be handed over. Nor has he been mentioned in a defense ministry press release since June 9.

Gerasimov, 67, is the commander of Russia’s war in Ukraine, and the holder of one of Russia’s three “nuclear briefcases,” according to some Western military analysts.

Absent from view too is General Sergei Surovikin, nicknamed “General Armageddon” by the Russian press for his aggressive tactics in the Syrian conflict, who is deputy commander of Russian forces in Ukraine.

A New York Times report, based on a U.S. intelligence briefing, said on Tuesday he had advance knowledge of the mutiny and that Russian authorities were checking if he was complicit.

The Kremlin on Wednesday played down the report, saying that there would be a lot of speculation and gossip.

U.S. officials told Reuters on Wednesday that Surovikin had been in support of Prigozhin, but that Western intelligence did not know with certainty if he had helped the rebellion in any way.

The Russian-language version of the Moscow Times and one military blogger reported Surovikin’s arrest, while some other military correspondents who command large followings in Russia said he and other senior officers were being questioned by the FSB security service to verify their loyalty.

Reuters could not determine whether Surovikin had been arrested or was being screened, along with others, for their reliability in a more standard exercise.

Rybar, an influential channel on the Telegram messaging application run by a former Russian defense ministry press officer, said a purge was underway.

He said the authorities were trying to weed out military personnel deemed to have shown “a lack of decisiveness” in putting down the mutiny amid some reports that parts of the armed forces appear to have done little to stop Wagner fighters in the initial stage of the rebellion.

“The armed insurgency by the Wagner private military company has become a pretext for a massive purge in the ranks of the Russian Armed Forces,” Rybar said.

Such a move, if confirmed, could alter the way Russia wages its war in Ukraine — which it calls a “special military operation” — and cause turmoil in the ranks at a time when Moscow is trying to thwart a Ukrainian counteroffensive.

It could also cement or elevate the positions of other senior military and security figures regarded as loyal.

There was no official comment on what was going on from the defense ministry.

Some Russian and Western military and political analysts believe Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu, a veteran Putin ally who Prigozhin wanted to bring down with Gerasimov because of his alleged incompetence, may actually now be safer in his job.

“I think he (Prigozhin) actually expected something would be done about Shoigu and Gerasimov, that Putin would rule in his favor,” Michael Kofman, a Russian military specialist at the Carnegie Endowment think tank, wrote on Twitter.

“Instead, his mutiny may have ensured their continued tenure, despite being universally recognised as incompetent, and widely detested in the Russian Federation’s armed forces.”

General Viktor Zolotov, head of the National Guard and once Putin’s bodyguard, appears to be another beneficiary after appearing in public to say his men were ready to “stand to the death” to defend Moscow from Wagner.

He has spoken of the possibility of getting heavy weaponry and tanks for his forces in the wake of the mutiny.

Gerasimov was conspicuous by his absence when Putin on Tuesday thanked the army for averting a civil war, unlike Shoigu who has made several public appearances since.

Surovikin, Gerasimov’s deputy, was last seen on Saturday when he appeared in a video appealing to Prigozhin to halt his mutiny. He looked exhausted and it was unclear if he was speaking under duress.

Dara Massicot, an expert in the Russian military at the RAND Corporation think tank, said that something looked odd about the video, in which Surovikin has an automatic weapon on his lap.

“I noted a few days ago, there was something very off here. He’s not wearing his insignia or rank tabs. 30+ years in the military and he’s not got them on, even at night? Nope,” she wrote on Twitter.

There were unconfirmed Russian media and blogger reports on Wednesday evening that Surovikin was being held in Moscow’s Lefortovo detention facility after being arrested.

Alexei Venediktov, a well-connected journalist, said – without citing his sources – that Surovikin had not been in touch with his family since Saturday and that his bodyguards had gone silent too.

Lawrence Freedman, Emeritus Professor of War Studies at King’s College London, said Surovikin’s removal, if true, could be more destabilizing to Russia’s war effort than Saturday’s mutiny “especially if other associates of Prigozhin/Surovikin start to get purged.”

“Surovikin (is) a brute but also one of the more capable Russian commanders,” Freedman said on Twitter.

World

EU adds Russian media outlets to sanctions list despite Kremlin warning

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(Last Updated On: May 16, 2024)

European Union countries on Wednesday agreed in principle to add four Russian state media outlets to the EU’s list of entities under sanctions, accusing them of propaganda, as the Kremlin vowed repercussions for Western journalists in Moscow, Reuters reported.

“Four Kremlin-linked propaganda networks (have been) added to the sanctions list: Voice of Europe, RIA Novosti, Izvestija and Rossiyskaya Gazeta”, EU Commissioner for Values and Transparency Vera Jourova said on social media platform X.

The outlets include newspapers and online media, read the report.

Russia earlier warned the European Union against the move. Russian Foreign Ministry Spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said the Kremlin would retaliate against Western correspondents in Moscow.

“If these measures are taken against the Russian media, Russian journalists, then, despite the fact that Western correspondents will not want to, they will also have to feel our retaliatory measures,” Zakharova said.

“We will respond with lightning speed and extremely painfully for the Westerners,” she said.

The EU did not immediately specify the measures applying to the media outlets but media sanctioned previously lost broadcasting rights in the EU, Reuters reported.

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Manhunt underway after gunmen ambush French prison van to free drug dealer

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(Last Updated On: May 15, 2024)

Gunmen wearing balaclavas ambushed a prison van in northern France on Tuesday to free a drug dealer known as “The Fly,” killing two prison guards, severely wounding three and triggering a major police manhunt.

The brazen, morning attack at a toll booth in Incarville in the Eure region of northern France underlines the growing threat of drug crime across Europe, the world’s No.1 cocaine market, Reuters reported.

It came on the same day that France’s Senate released a major report on drug trafficking, warning that the country faces a “tipping point” from rising narco violence that represents “a threat to the fundamental interests of the nation.”

The fugitive inmate, named Mohamed Amra, is a 30-year-old drug dealer from northern France, according to the Paris prosecutor’s office and police sources.

He had been convicted of burglary by a court in Evreux on May 10 and was being held at the Val de Reuil prison, Reuters reported.

Amra had also been indicted by prosecutors in Marseille for a kidnapping that led to a death, the Paris prosecutor’s office said.

A police source in Marseille told Reuters Amra was a drug dealer with ties to the city’s powerful “Blacks” gang.

Images on social media showed gunmen in balaclavas circling near an SUV that was in flames. The SUV appeared to have been rammed into the front of the prison van.

Amra’s lawyer, Hugues Vigier, told BFM TV that the violence of the incident did not correspond with the person he knew. He said Amra had tried to escape from prison on Sunday by sawing at the bars of his cell.

“This element suggests that there was an escape attempt in preparation,” Vigier said.

Interior Minister Gérald Darmanin said a major manhunt had been launched, with several hundred officers involved.

Justice Minister Éric Dupond-Moretti said the prison van was attacked while Amra was being driven to meet an investigating judge in Rouen. He said two of the injured officers were in critical condition.

“Absolutely everything will be done to find the perpetrators of this despicable crime,” he told BFM TV. “These are people for whom life means nothing. They will be arrested, judged and punished according to the crime they committed.”

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Blinken arrives in Ukraine in show of US solidarity amid Russian attacks

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(Last Updated On: May 14, 2024)

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken arrived in Kyiv on Tuesday in the first visit to Ukraine by a senior U.S. official since Congress passed a long-delayed $61 billion military aid package for the country last month, Reuters reported.

The previously undisclosed trip aims to show U.S. solidarity with Ukraine as it struggles to fend off heavy Russian bombardment on its northeastern border.

Blinken, who arrived in Kyiv by train early on Tuesday morning, hopes to “send a strong signal of reassurance to the Ukrainians who are obviously in a very difficult moment,” said a U.S. official who briefed reporters traveling with Blinken on condition of anonymity.

“The Secretary’s mission here is really to talk about how our supplemental assistance is going to be executed in a fashion to help shore up their defenses (and) enable them to increasingly take back the initiative on the battlefield,” the official said.

Artillery, long-range missiles known as ATACMS and air defense interceptors approved by President Joe Biden on April 24 were already reaching the Ukrainian forces, the official said.

Blinken will reassure Ukrainian officials including President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of enduring U.S. support and deliver a speech focused on Ukraine’s future, the official said.

Kyiv has been on the back foot on the battlefield for months as Russian troops have slowly advanced, mainly in the Donetsk region to the south, taking advantage of Ukraine’s shortages of troop manpower and artillery shells. Russia’s forces hold a significant advantage in manpower and munitions.

On Monday, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said Washington was trying to accelerate “the tempo of the deliveries” of weapons to Ukraine to help it reverse its disadvantage, read the report.

“The delay put Ukraine in a hole and we’re trying to help them dig out of that hole as rapidly as possible,” Sullivan said, adding that a fresh package of weapons was going to be announced this week.

EXPANDING THE FIGHTING

Russia now controls about 18% of Ukraine and has been gaining ground since the failure of Kyiv’s 2023 counter-offensive to make serious inroads against Russian troops dug in behind deep minefields.

Moscow’s troops entered Ukraine near its second largest city of Kharkiv on Friday, opening a new, northeastern front in a war that has for almost two years been largely fought in the east and south. The advance could draw some of Kyiv’s depleted forces away from the east, where Russia has been advancing.

“They (the Russians) are clearly throwing everything they have in the east,” said the U.S. official.

Economic and political reforms being undertaken by Kyiv will pave the way for the country to join the European Union and eventually NATO, the official said.

While the U.S.-led defense alliance is not likely to admit Ukraine any time soon, individual members are reaching bilateral security agreements with Kyiv. Talks on a U.S.-Ukraine agreement are “in the final stages” and will conclude ahead of the July NATO summit in Washington, the U.S. official said.

The Group of Seven wealthy nations signed a joint declaration at the NATO summit in Vilnius in July last year committing to establish “long-term security commitments and arrangements” with Ukraine that would be negotiated bilaterally, Reuters reported.

Kyiv says the arrangements should contain important and concrete security commitments, but that the agreements would in no way replace its strategic goal of joining NATO. The Western alliance regards any attack launched on one of its 32 members as an attack on all under its Article Five clause.

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