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Ukraine war, absence of Putin and Xi set to dent G20 summit

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Deeper and more entrenched divisions over Russia’s war in Ukraine risk derailing progress on issues such as food security, debt distress and global cooperation on climate change when the world’s most powerful nations meet this weekend in New Delhi.

The hardened stance on the war has prevented agreement on even a single communique at the 20 or so ministerial meetings of the G20 during India’s presidency this year, leaving it to the leaders to find a way around, if possible, Reuters reported.

But China will be represented by Premier Li Qiang, not President Xi Jinping, while Russia has confirmed President Vladimir Putin’s absence, suggesting that neither nation is likely to join any consensus.

That means the two-day summit from September 9 will be dominated by the West and its allies. The G20 leaders who will attend include U.S. President Joe Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed Bin Salman and Japan’s Fumio Kishida.

A failed summit would expose the limits of cooperation between Western and non-Western powers, and prompt countries to double down on the groups they are more comfortable with, analysts said.

To tackle global threats “breaking off into Western and non-Western blocs isn’t what you want,” said Michael Kugelman, the director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington.

Failing to forge a consensus will also hurt the diplomatic credentials of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is using the presidency to bolster New Delhi’s position as economic powerhouse and a leader of the global south.

“If the leaders’ summit is a flop, New Delhi and especially Modi will have suffered a major diplomatic, and political, setback,” Kugelman said.

India, which has not condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, will have to either convince the bloc to agree to a joint statement – the so-called Leaders Declaration – or allow its presidency to be the first to end without such a communique since 2008.

“The positions have hardened since the Bali Summit,” a senior Indian government official told Reuters, referring to the 2022 summit held in Indonesia. “Russia and China have toughened their position since then, a consensus would be very hard.”

In Bali, Indonesian President Joko Widodo clinched a last minute joint statement from the bloc. India is hoping that the leaders can again work something out at the last minute, another government official said.

The Bali Leaders’ Declaration said “most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine and stressed it is causing immense human suffering and exacerbating existing fragilities in the global economy.”

It also said that “there were other views and different assessments of the situation and sanctions.”

Another Indian official said that in Bali, “Russia and China were more flexible.” But as the war completes 18 months, countries “are not agreeing even to the language used in the Bali Declaration”.

Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who will come in place of Putin, have already drawn battlelines.

Trudeau, while confirming that he will travel to India for the meeting in a call with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said that he was disappointed that the Ukrainian president was not invited.

“As you know, we will be speaking up strongly for you, and we will continue to make sure that the world is standing with Ukraine,” Trudeau said in the call with Zelenskiy.

Lavrov said last week Russia will block the final declaration of the G20 summit unless it reflects Moscow’s position on Kyiv and other crises. Diplomats said any acceptance of Moscow’s stance was highly improbable, and the summit would most likely end up issuing a non-binding or partial communique.

Last month, the BRICS group of nations, where China is the heavyweight, added half a dozen more countries to the bloc in a push to reshuffle a world order it sees as outdated.

“Xi’s absence may be Beijing’s attempt to put a nail in the G20’s coffin, only weeks after expanding the BRICS organization which is more aligned with China’s world view,” said David Boling, director at consulting firm Eurasia Group.

India is a member of BRICS, along with Russia, China, Brazil and South Africa, and had some concerns about the bloc’s expansion earlier. But at the summit in Johannesburg last month, it joined a consensus on the criteria for new entrants.

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EU leaders agree joint borrowing to fund Ukraine, setting aside plan to use Russian frozen assets

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European Union leaders decided on Friday to borrow cash to fund Ukraine’s defence against Russia for the next two years rather than use frozen Russian assets, sidestepping divisions over an unprecedented plan to finance Kyiv with Russian sovereign cash.

“Today we approved a decision to provide 90 billion euros to Ukraine,” EU summit chairman Antonio Costa told a news conference early on Friday morning after hours of talks among the leaders in Brussels, Reuters reported. “As a matter of urgency, we will provide a loan backed by the European Union budget.”

The leaders also gave the European Commission a mandate to keep working on a so-called reparations loan based on Russian immobilised assets but that option proved unworkable for now, above all due to resistance from Belgium, where the bulk of the assets is held.

The idea of EU borrowing initially seemed unworkable as it requires unanimity and Hungary’s Russia-friendly Prime Minister Viktor Orban had opposed it. But Hungary, Slovakia and the Czech Republic agreed to let the scheme go ahead as long as it did not impact them financially.

The EU leaders said Russian assets, totalling 210 billion euros in the EU, will remain frozen until Moscow pays war reparations to Ukraine. If Moscow ever takes such a step, Ukraine could then use they money to pay back the loan.

USE OF RUSSIAN ASSETS TO COMPLEX AT THIS STAGE

“This is good news for Ukraine and bad news for Russia and this was our intention,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said.

The stakes for finding money for Kyiv were high because without the EU’s financial help, Ukraine would run out of money in the second quarter of next year and most likely lose the war to Russia, which the EU fears would bring closer the threat of Russian aggression against the bloc.

The decision follows hours of discussions among leaders on the technical details of an unprecedented loan based on the frozen Russian assets, which turned out to be too complex or politically demanding to resolve at this stage.

The main difficulty was providing Belgium, where 185 billion euros of the total Russian assets in Europe are held, with sufficient guarantees against financial and legal risks from potential Russian retaliation for the release of the money to Ukraine.

“There were so many questions on the Reparations Loan, we had to go to Plan B. Rationality has prevailed,” Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever told a news conference. “The EU has avoided chaos and division and remained united,” he said.

HUNGARY SCORES A WIN

With public finances across the EU already strained by high debt levels, the European Commission had proposed using the Russian assets for a loan to Kyiv or joint borrowing against the EU budget.

Using the latter option allowed Orban to claim a diplomatic victory.

“Orban got what he wanted: no reparation loan. And EU action without participation of Hungary, Czech Republic and Slovakia,” one EU diplomat said.

‘CAN’T AFFORD TO FAIL’

Several EU leaders arriving at the summit said it was imperative they find a solution to keep Ukraine financed and fighting for the next two years. They were also keen to show European countries’ strength and resolve after U.S. President Donald Trump last week called them “weak”.

“We just can’t afford to fail,” EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas said.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, who took part in the summit, urged the bloc to agree to use the Russian assets to provide the funds he said would allow Ukraine to keep fighting.

“The decision now on the table – the decision to fully use Russian assets to defend against Russian aggression – is one of the clearest and most morally justified decisions that could ever be made,” he said.

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US readies new Russia sanctions if Putin rejects peace deal, Bloomberg News reports

A State Department spokesperson told Reuters it does not preview sanctions.

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The United States is preparing a further round of sanctions targeting Russia’s energy sector to increase pressure on Moscow should it reject a peace deal with Ukraine, Bloomberg News reported on Wednesday, citing people familiar with the matter.

A White House official told Reuters that U.S. President Donald Trump had made no new decisions regarding Russian sanctions.

 “It is the role of agencies to prepare options for the president to execute,” the official said.

Bloomberg had reported the U.S. was considering options including targeting vessels in what is known as Russia’s shadow fleet of tankers used to transport exported oil, as well as traders who facilitate such transactions.

The new measures could be announced as early as this week, the report said, adding that Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent discussed the move with a group of European ambassadors this week.

“It is explicitly false to conclude any decisions have been made regarding future sanctions against Russia. As we have said for months, all options remain on the table in support of President Trump’s tireless efforts to stop the senseless killing, and to achieving a lasting, durable peace,” a U.S. Treasury Department spokesperson said.

A State Department spokesperson told Reuters it does not preview sanctions.

Asked about the Bloomberg article, the Kremlin said it had not seen the report but that any sanctions harm efforts to mend U.S.-Russia relations.

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Trump adds seven countries, including Syria, to full travel ban list

The White House cited visa overstay rates for Syria in its justification for the ban.

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U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday expanded a list of countries subject to a full travel ban, prohibiting citizens from an additional seven countries, including Syria, from entering the United States.

The White House said in a statement that Trump signed a proclamation “expanding and strengthening entry restrictions on nationals from countries with demonstrated, persistent, and severe deficiencies in screening, vetting, and information-sharing to protect the Nation from national security and public safety threats.”

Tuesday’s move banned citizens from Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, South Sudan, Syria and those holding Palestinian Authority-issued travel documents. The action also imposes a full ban on Laos and Sierra Leone, which had previously only been subject to partial restrictions.

The White House said the expanded ban goes into effect on January 1.

The action comes despite Trump’s vow to do everything he could to make Syria successful after landmark talks in November with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa, a former al Qaeda commander who until recently was sanctioned by Washington as a foreign terrorist.

Trump has backed Sharaa, whose visit capped a stunning year for the rebel-turned-ruler who toppled longtime autocratic leader Bashar al-Assad and has since traveled the world trying to depict himself as a moderate leader who wants to unify his war-ravaged nation and end its decades of international isolation.

But in a post on his Truth Social platform on Saturday, Trump vowed “very serious retaliation” after the U.S. military said two U.S. Army soldiers and a civilian interpreter were killed in Syria by a suspected Islamic State attacker who targeted a convoy of American and Syrian forces before being shot dead. He described the incident in remarks to reporters as a “terrible” attack.

The White House cited visa overstay rates for Syria in its justification for the ban.

“Syria is emerging from a protracted period of civil unrest and internal strife. While the country is working to address its security challenges in close coordination with the United States, Syria still lacks an adequate central authority for issuing passports or civil documents and does not have appropriate screening and vetting measures,” the White House said.

Trump signed a proclamation in June banning the citizens of 12 countries from entering the United States and restricting those from seven others, saying it was needed to protect against “foreign terrorists” and other security threats. The bans apply to both immigrants and non-immigrants, such as tourists, students and business travelers.

The travel ban remains on those twelve countries, the White House said.

Trump also added partial restrictions and entry limitations on an additional 15 countries, including Nigeria, which is under scrutiny from Trump, who in early November threatened military action over the treatment of Christians in the country.

Nigeria says claims that Christians face persecution misrepresent a complex security situation and do not take into account efforts to safeguard religious freedom.

Since returning to office in January, Trump has aggressively prioritized immigration enforcement, sending federal agents to major U.S. cities and turning away asylum seekers at the U.S.-Mexico border.

The expansion of the countries subject to entry restrictions marks a further escalation of immigration measures the administration has taken since the shooting of two National Guard members in Washington, D.C., last month.

Investigators say the shooting was carried out by an Afghan national who entered the U.S. in 2021 through a resettlement program under which Trump administration officials have argued there was insufficient vetting.

Days after the shooting, Trump vowed to “permanently pause” migration from all “Third World Countries,” although he did not identify any by name or define the term.

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