World
Ukraine war, absence of Putin and Xi set to dent G20 summit
Deeper and more entrenched divisions over Russia’s war in Ukraine risk derailing progress on issues such as food security, debt distress and global cooperation on climate change when the world’s most powerful nations meet this weekend in New Delhi.
The hardened stance on the war has prevented agreement on even a single communique at the 20 or so ministerial meetings of the G20 during India’s presidency this year, leaving it to the leaders to find a way around, if possible, Reuters reported.
But China will be represented by Premier Li Qiang, not President Xi Jinping, while Russia has confirmed President Vladimir Putin’s absence, suggesting that neither nation is likely to join any consensus.
That means the two-day summit from September 9 will be dominated by the West and its allies. The G20 leaders who will attend include U.S. President Joe Biden, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, French President Emmanuel Macron, Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed Bin Salman and Japan’s Fumio Kishida.
A failed summit would expose the limits of cooperation between Western and non-Western powers, and prompt countries to double down on the groups they are more comfortable with, analysts said.
To tackle global threats “breaking off into Western and non-Western blocs isn’t what you want,” said Michael Kugelman, the director of the South Asia Institute at the Wilson Center in Washington.
Failing to forge a consensus will also hurt the diplomatic credentials of Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who is using the presidency to bolster New Delhi’s position as economic powerhouse and a leader of the global south.
“If the leaders’ summit is a flop, New Delhi and especially Modi will have suffered a major diplomatic, and political, setback,” Kugelman said.
India, which has not condemned Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, will have to either convince the bloc to agree to a joint statement – the so-called Leaders Declaration – or allow its presidency to be the first to end without such a communique since 2008.
“The positions have hardened since the Bali Summit,” a senior Indian government official told Reuters, referring to the 2022 summit held in Indonesia. “Russia and China have toughened their position since then, a consensus would be very hard.”
In Bali, Indonesian President Joko Widodo clinched a last minute joint statement from the bloc. India is hoping that the leaders can again work something out at the last minute, another government official said.
The Bali Leaders’ Declaration said “most members strongly condemned the war in Ukraine and stressed it is causing immense human suffering and exacerbating existing fragilities in the global economy.”
It also said that “there were other views and different assessments of the situation and sanctions.”
Another Indian official said that in Bali, “Russia and China were more flexible.” But as the war completes 18 months, countries “are not agreeing even to the language used in the Bali Declaration”.
Canada’s Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov, who will come in place of Putin, have already drawn battlelines.
Trudeau, while confirming that he will travel to India for the meeting in a call with Ukraine’s Volodymyr Zelenskiy, said that he was disappointed that the Ukrainian president was not invited.
“As you know, we will be speaking up strongly for you, and we will continue to make sure that the world is standing with Ukraine,” Trudeau said in the call with Zelenskiy.
Lavrov said last week Russia will block the final declaration of the G20 summit unless it reflects Moscow’s position on Kyiv and other crises. Diplomats said any acceptance of Moscow’s stance was highly improbable, and the summit would most likely end up issuing a non-binding or partial communique.
Last month, the BRICS group of nations, where China is the heavyweight, added half a dozen more countries to the bloc in a push to reshuffle a world order it sees as outdated.
“Xi’s absence may be Beijing’s attempt to put a nail in the G20’s coffin, only weeks after expanding the BRICS organization which is more aligned with China’s world view,” said David Boling, director at consulting firm Eurasia Group.
India is a member of BRICS, along with Russia, China, Brazil and South Africa, and had some concerns about the bloc’s expansion earlier. But at the summit in Johannesburg last month, it joined a consensus on the criteria for new entrants.
World
Trump says further US attacks on Iran ‘highly unlikely’ as peace talks gain momentum
Although Trump played down the prospect of renewed attacks, he warned that US forces remained prepared to respond if circumstances changed.
US President Donald Trump has said further American military strikes against Iran are “highly unlikely”, signalling a possible shift towards de-escalation as diplomatic efforts to end the conflict gather momentum.
Speaking to reporters at the White House on Monday, Trump said Iran was effectively defeated militarily and suggested Washington was prepared to maintain the current situation while negotiations continued.
“Iran militarily is effectively over,” Trump said, adding that there was “positive momentum” behind efforts to reach an agreement.
“We’re just keeping it the status quo,” he said, explaining that the decision was largely being taken at the request of neighbouring countries.
Although Trump played down the prospect of renewed attacks, he warned that US forces remained prepared to respond if circumstances changed.
“We’re locked and loaded,” he said, while describing further strikes as “highly unlikely”.
The comments come amid growing pressure on the Trump administration to bring the conflict to an end, following bruising midterm election results for Republicans last week.
Several senior party figures, including Vice-President JD Vance, have pointed to the war as a factor behind the party’s poor performance.
Trump had previously indicated that US forces carried out what he described as limited strikes on an Iranian island near the strategically important Strait of Hormuz.
However, in a television interview broadcast on Sunday, he said he currently saw no reason to escalate the military campaign.
He also stopped short of formally declaring the war over, arguing that Washington still had to protect its Gulf allies from possible Iranian attacks.
The US naval blockade of Iranian ports, he suggested, was helping maintain security across the region.
Global oil prices fell further following Trump’s latest remarks, with Brent crude dropping more than 1% to around $91.50 a barrel, while US crude also declined.
Gulf diplomacy intensifies
Trump’s comments followed a meeting with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdul Rahman Al Thani at the White House on Monday.
The US president described their discussions as excellent, while the Qatari leader said he had held positive talks with Trump and Vance on reaching an agreement and restoring regional peace.
Diplomatic efforts to end the conflict have largely been conducted through intermediaries since the war erupted following joint US-Israeli strikes against Iran in February.
Saudi Arabia, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates are among Washington’s Gulf partners that have been targeted by Iranian attacks during the conflict, while security concerns have also caused significant disruption to regional air travel.
Political pressure mounts in Washington
Meanwhile, the war is generating further political tensions in Washington.
Republican Congressman Thomas Massie on Monday announced plans to force a House of Representatives vote this week on impeaching Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth over his handling of the conflict.
Hegseth, who has received Trump’s backing, dismissed the threat, describing Massie’s effort as a “sham”.
The impeachment initiative is unlikely to succeed while Republicans retain control of Congress. However, Democrats have indicated they could pursue the matter when the new congressional session begins in January.
For Trump, the challenge is increasingly twofold: finding a diplomatic exit from the conflict while managing mounting political pressure at home and reassuring US allies across the Gulf.
World
First Muslim US senator-elect El-Sayed calls for review of aid to Pakistan
He also called for restrictions on US arms sales to Israel, alleging that some American-supplied weapons were being used in actions involving what he described as genocide and apartheid.
Abdul El-Sayed, the first Muslim elected to the US Senate, has called on Washington to reconsider its financial and military assistance to Pakistan and several other countries, arguing that American taxpayer money should not be used to support violations of international law.
El-Sayed, a Democrat who recently defeated Republican candidate Mike Rogers in Michigan, said the United States must ensure that its foreign assistance policies are consistent with international law.
In an interview with ABC, he stressed that the issue should not be limited to Israel, but should also include Pakistan, Egypt and Jordan.
“When we are giving money to a country that is using our money to violate international law, that seems to me a good place to start,” El-Sayed said.
His remarks come after US President Donald Trump announced plans to end approximately $4 billion in annual military assistance to Israel by the end of the year.
El-Sayed welcomed Trump’s proposal to reduce military aid to Israel, saying he agreed with the president’s approach.
He also called for restrictions on US arms sales to Israel, alleging that some American-supplied weapons were being used in actions involving what he described as genocide and apartheid.
The United States currently provides Israel with $3.8 billion in annual military assistance under an agreement that remains in effect until 2028.
However, El-Sayed’s criticism extends beyond Israel. He has also questioned US military assistance to Egypt, Saudi Arabia, Jordan and Pakistan, arguing that American taxpayer money should instead be directed towards domestic priorities.
World
Houthi-run health ministry says airstrikes kill 33 near Yemen capital
The ministry said the strikes hit homes in the town of Bani Hushaysh, a Houthi stronghold east of Sanaa, and that most of those killed were women and children.
At least 33 people were killed and 39 wounded in what the Houthi-run Saba news agency said were Saudi airstrikes on a village near Yemen’s capital Sanaa on Saturday, in one of the deadliest reported attacks since fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Iran-aligned group resumed in July.
Reuters could not independently verify the account. Saudi Arabia’s Center for International Communication said it was investigating the report.
The renewed fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis has shattered a 2022 UN-brokered truce that largely halted attacks between the Saudi-led coalition and the group, which controls Sanaa. The Houthis have since launched missile and drone attacks on Saudi airports and oil facilities, while Riyadh has carried out airstrikes in Yemen in support of its Yemeni allies.
The ministry said the strikes hit homes in the town of Bani Hushaysh, a Houthi stronghold east of Sanaa, and that most of those killed were women and children.
Abdul-Aziz al-Dailami, director of Sehatuna Hospital in Sanaa, said many victims remained trapped under the rubble, including first responders.
“The strikes keep coming. Just as rescuers arrive, another strike hits. We have even lost some of our own medical responders, who have been martyred,” he told Reuters.
“We received a number of wounded individuals in very critical condition, with injuries to the head, chest and legs, as well as fractures,” al-Dailami added.
The fighting, a spillover from the wider US-Iran conflict, has revived a complex 12-year war in Yemen that has caused one of the worst humanitarian crises globally and fragmented the Arab world’s most impoverished country.
The number of people displaced since the latest round of fighting began has climbed to more than 200,000, the International Organization for Migration said in October.
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