Regional
Only Gaza ceasefire will delay retaliation, say Iranian officials
In Israel, many observers believe a response is imminent after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Iran would “harshly punish” Israel for the strike in Tehran.
Only a ceasefire deal in Gaza stemming from hoped-for talks this week would hold Iran back from direct retaliation against Israel for the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh on its soil, three senior Iranian officials said.
Iran has vowed a severe response to Haniyeh’s killing, which took place as he visited Tehran late last month and which it blamed on Israel. Israel has neither confirmed or denied its involvement. The U.S. Navy has deployed warships and a submarine to the Middle East to bolster Israeli defenses.
One of the sources, a senior Iranian security official, said Iran, along with allies such as Hezbollah, would launch a direct attack if the Gaza talks fail or it perceives Israel is dragging out negotiations. The sources did not say how long Iran would allow for talks to progress before responding.
With an increased risk of a broader Middle East war after the killings of Haniyeh and Hezbollah commander Fuad Shukr, Iran has been involved in intense dialogue with Western countries and the United States in recent days on ways to calibrate retaliation, said the sources, who all spoke on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the matter.
In comments published on Tuesday, the U.S. ambassador to Turkey confirmed Washington was asking allies to help convince Iran to de-escalate tensions. Three regional government sources described conversations with Tehran to avoid escalation ahead of the Gaza ceasefire talks, due to begin on Thursday in either Egypt or Qatar.
“We hope our response will be timed and executed in a way that does not harm a potential ceasefire,” Iran’s mission to the U.N. said on Friday in a statement. Iran’s foreign ministry on Tuesday said calls to exercise restraint “contradict principles of international law.”
Iran’s foreign ministry and its Revolutionary Guards Corps did not immediately respond to questions for this story. The Israeli Prime Minister’s Office and the U.S. State Department did not respond to questions.
“Something could happen as soon as this week by Iran and its proxies… That is a U.S. assessment as well as an Israel assessment,” White House spokesperson John Kirby told reporters on Monday.
“If something does happen this week, the timing of it could certainly well have an impact on these talks we want to do on Thursday,” he added.
At the weekend, Hamas cast doubt on whether talks would go ahead. Israel and Hamas have held several rounds of talks in recent months without agreeing a final ceasefire.
In Israel, many observers believe a response is imminent after Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said Iran would “harshly punish” Israel for the strike in Tehran.
“We are closely following what happens in Beirut and Tehran, and are working to thwart any (possible) threat, while also preparing a variety of offensive options,” Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant said during a visit to an intelligence base in Northern Israel.
“We are determined to fulfill our mission – we must ensure the safe return of (Israel’s northern) residents to their homes, once we ensure that Hezbollah withdraws north of the Litani River.”
Iran’s regional policy is set by the elite Revolutionary Guards, who answer only to Khamenei, the country’s top authority. Iran’s relatively moderate new president Masoud Pezeshkian has repeatedly reaffirmed Iran’s anti-Israel stance and its support for resistance movements across the region since taking office last month.
Meir Litvak, a senior researcher at Tel Aviv University’s Alliance Center for Iranian Studies, said he thought Iran would put its needs before helping its ally Hamas but that Iran also wanted to avoid a full-scale war.
“The Iranians never subordinated their strategy and policies to the needs of their proxies or protégées,” Litvak said. “An attack is likely and almost inevitable but I don’t know the scale and the timing.”
Iran-based analyst Saeed Laylaz said the Islamic Republic’s leaders were now keen to work towards a ceasefire in Gaza, “to obtain incentives, avoid an all-out war and strengthen its position in the region.”
Laylaz said Iran had not previously been involved in the Gaza peace process but was now ready to play “a key role.”
Iran, two of the sources said, was considering sending a representative to the ceasefire talks. However, they said the representative would not directly attend the meetings but would engage in behind-the-scenes discussions “to maintain a line of diplomatic communication” with the United States while negotiations proceed.
Iran’s mission to the United Nations in New York told Reuters that Tehran would not have a representative present on the sidelines of the ceasefire talks. Officials in Washington, Qatar and Egypt did not immediately respond to questions about whether Iran would play an indirect role in talks.
Two senior sources close to Lebanon’s Hezbollah said Tehran would give the negotiations a chance but would not give up its intentions to retaliate.
A ceasefire in Gaza would give Iran cover for a smaller “symbolic” response, one of the sources said.
Israel launched its assault on Gaza after Hamas fighters stormed into southern Israel on Oct. 7, killing 1,200 people, mostly civilians, and capturing more than 250 hostages, according to Israeli tallies.
Since then, nearly 40,000 Palestinians have been killed in the Israeli offensive in Gaza, according to the health ministry.
Iran has not publicly indicated what would be the target of an eventual response to the Haniyeh assassination. Reuters
On April 13, two weeks after two Iranian generals were killed in a strike on Tehran’s embassy in Syria, Iran unleashed a barrage of hundreds of drones, cruise missiles and ballistic missiles towards Israel, damaging two airbases. Almost all of the weapons were shot down before they reached their targets.
“Iran wants its response to be much more effective than the April 13 attack,” said Farzin Nadimi, senior fellow with the Washington Institute for Near East policy.”
Nadimi said such a response would require “a lot of preparation and coordination” especially if it involved Iran’s network of allied armed groups opposing Israel and the United States across the Middle East, with Hezbollah the senior member of the so-called “Axis of Resistance,” that along with Iraqi militias and Yemen’s Houthis have harried Israel since Oct. 7.
Two of the Iranian sources said Iran would support Hezbollah and other allies if they launched their own responses to the killing of Haniyeh and Hezbollah’s top military commander, Fuad Shukr, who died in a strike in Beirut the day before Haniyeh was killed in Tehran.
The sources did not specify what form such support could take.
Regional
Iran defends two-day proposal for peace talks after US rejects conditions
Iran defended a proposal on Monday to restart peace talks in as few as two days as the most reasonable offer on the table, after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called some of Iran’s conditions “outrageous and ridiculous”.
Iran defended a proposal on Monday to restart peace talks in as few as two days as the most reasonable offer on the table, after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called some of Iran’s conditions “outrageous and ridiculous”, Reuters reported.
“Is it unreasonable that Iran demands that US illegal sanctions and its naval blockade must be lifted before negotiations start and that the war should end on all fronts?” Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei told a weekly press conference in response to Rubio’s remarks.
Iran defended a proposal on Monday to restart peace talks in as few as two days as the most reasonable offer on the table, after US Secretary of State Marco Rubio called some of Iran’s conditions “outrageous and ridiculous”.
“Is it unreasonable that Iran demands that US illegal sanctions and its naval blockade must be lifted before negotiations start and that the war should end on all fronts?” Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baghaei told a weekly press conference in response to Rubio’s remarks.
Regional
Explosions heard in areas in southern Iran, Iranian media report
Earlier on Saturday, Tasnim news agency said two missiles struck Qeshm Island with no official information on possible damage.
Explosions were heard on Saturday evening in several areas in southern Iran, including on Qeshm Island in the Strait of Hormuz, Iranian state television reported.
Iran’s state TV suggested that the explosions might be linked to Iranian military activities in the strategic waterway, which has become subject to repeated attacks on commercial shipping since the war erupted between the US and Iran in February.
It said Iranian officials have not confirmed any missile strikes on the areas, while the semi-official Tasnim news agency cited a source as saying that the explosions heard on Qeshm Island were not related to missile strikes.
Iran’s Revolutionary Guards Navy said early on Sunday that two oil tankers were on fire after hitting mines as they attempted to pass through an “unauthorized route” in the strait. It was not immediately clear if the incidents referred to by the IRGC were linked to the sound of explosions heard in southern Iranian areas.
Iran has hit vessels it says have violated its restrictions on passage through the waterway, as it seeks to assert control over the strait and exert pressure on Washington.
Earlier on Saturday, Tasnim news agency said two missiles struck Qeshm Island with no official information on possible damage.
The reported explosions come days after the US carried out strikes on the island. A US official said those strikes were limited and not a resumption of major combat operations.
The US military said on Saturday evening that its forces disabled a commercial vessel that tried to get through the US blockade of Iran.
The US Central Command said one of its aircraft fired at the vessel’s stern and disabled the ship after it attempted to violate the blockade.
Countries in the region had been anticipating that US President Donald Trump, who has held off on strikes on Iran during the weeks leading up to Tuesday’s midterm elections, could restart attacks once the voting was over. Iran has repeatedly said it would respond to new attacks by striking at US and Israeli targets in neighboring countries.
Regional
Pakistan’s leaders dread US Democrats’ win but its households are praying for it
Pakistan’s courtship of Trump, capped by its mediation in the Iran war, earned it a close relationship with his administration. That access has yet to deliver clear economic gains, and congressional scrutiny of Islamabad’s dealings with Trump’s inner circle now threatens the rewards its leaders hoped would follow.
Pakistan’s leaders spent two years courting US President Donald Trump, but after the Democrats’ win in Tuesday’s congressional vote, they are preparing for scrutiny of their access to the White House.
Ordinary Pakistanis see the result differently. Many hope the shift in Washington will ease a cost-of-living crisis intensified by the US-Israel war on Iran, Reuters reported.
“We believe meaningful negotiations with the current US administration are not possible, and the ongoing bloodshed will not end until there is a change in [the US] government,” Karachi resident Sajjad Ali said.
“We want peace, economic improvement and a reduction in the rising oil prices.”
Asim Zafar, also from Karachi, said he hoped the results would rein in Trump. “It could bring changes in important policies and perhaps help prevent some of the injustices being committed against Muslim countries,” he said.
But for Pakistan’s government and powerful military leadership, analysts say, the outcome is far more worrying.
Pakistan’s courtship of Trump, capped by its mediation in the Iran war, earned it a close relationship with his administration. That access has yet to deliver clear economic gains, and congressional scrutiny of Islamabad’s dealings with Trump’s inner circle now threatens the rewards its leaders hoped would follow.
A BET ON ONE MAN
The courtship began early in Trump’s second term, with army chief Asim Munir — who Trump has repeatedly described as his “favourite field marshal” — as Islamabad’s main channel to the White House.
Their June 2025 lunch took place unusually without Pakistani civilian officials present, which put the military at the centre of the rapprochement.
According to Pakistan’s military, their talks went beyond security to cooperation in mining, energy and cryptocurrency.
Pakistan then joined Trump’s Board of Peace and nominated him for the Nobel Peace Prize, crediting him with helping end its May 2025 conflict with India. New Delhi denies US mediation halted hostilities.
Earlier this year, Iran mediation gave the courtship strategic substance: Islamabad relayed messages and hosted April talks between the US and Iran, but the eventual Islamabad Agreement quickly faltered.
For consumers, Pakistan’s rising diplomatic influence has offered little protection from the war’s costs while the payoff for the state has also been thin. The US Export-Import Bank approved $1.25 billion for Pakistan’s Reko Diq copper and gold project in December 2025. But Pakistan’s signature $10 billion request for a US Treasury facility remains unanswered.
DEALS UNDER SCRUTINY
Pakistan’s outreach, public and private, now carries political risk because several arrangements involve Trump’s family or close associates.
Islamabad has signed memoranda to explore payments in USD1, a stablecoin issued by the Trump-linked World Liberty Financial. At the signing in January, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said innovation should be “aligned with regulation, stability, and national interest.”
It has also signed another memorandum to redevelop Manhattan’s Roosevelt Hotel, a deal negotiated by envoy Steve Witkoff, and placed a limited drone order with Powerus, whose investors include Trump’s sons Donald Jr. and Eric.
“There are no conflicts of interest,” White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly told Reuters in September, when asked about Powerus.
Husain Haqqani, a former Pakistani ambassador to Washington and senior fellow at the Abu Dhabi-based Anwar Gargash Diplomatic Academy, said Pakistan’s leaders had “built a transactional relationship” with Trump’s team. Some arrangements involving the president’s friends and relatives “might not last,” he said. “Pakistan seems totally unprepared for that scrutiny.”
Daniel Markey, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Stimson Center, warned that investigations could taint the wider relationship if dealings appeared driven by private interests.
From Pakistan’s perspective, there may still be cards left to play, analysts said.
The Atlantic Council’s Michael Kugelman said Pakistan’s counterterrorism cooperation and Iran diplomacy enjoyed bipartisan support, and Democrats would be more likely to blame problematic deals on Trump than on Pakistan.
But “the risk for Pakistan is that it put so many of its diplomatic eggs in the White House basket that it won’t have anything left for the Democrats,” Kugelman said.
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