The UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) has issued a stark warning that up to 11.6 million displaced and vulnerable people could be left without life-saving assistance this year due to a dramatic shortfall in humanitarian funding.

In a new report, UNHCR revealed that despite receiving $2.5 billion in contributions by mid-2025—just 23% of its global budget—it now faces an $8.1 billion shortfall against projected needs of $10.6 billion.

The agency expects to raise no more than $3.5 billion by the end of the year, roughly the same level of funding it received a decade ago, despite the number of forcibly displaced people reaching a record 122 million.

“This situation is unsustainable,” the report states. “Less funding equals less assistance, and that translates into real human suffering.”

The financial strain is already triggering severe cutbacks across all areas of UNHCR’s operations:

• 50% reduction in non-food assistance and shelter
• 35% cut in healthcare programs
• 34% reduction in education initiatives
• 25% decrease in legal support services
• 23% cut to gender-based violence response programs
• 7% reduction in voluntary repatriation efforts

“No area of intervention is fully funded,” the report says, noting that the further from Europe a region is, the deeper the gap becomes. While Europe receives 34% of the required funding, the Middle East and North Africa region receives just 20%.

UNHCR warns that these cuts are “not just statistics”—they represent millions of people who will be left without access to food, shelter, healthcare, education, or legal protection.

The agency highlighted Lebanon and Afghanistan as two of the most severely affected countries.

Lebanon, already buckling under the weight of economic collapse and conflict fallout, hosts over 1.4 million Syrian refugees and approximately 400,000 Palestinians. Due to funding shortages, UNHCR has already reduced its assistance programs in the country by 47%.

In recent months, more than 100,000 new Syrian arrivals have entered Lebanon, but resources are now so limited that the agency cannot provide basic shelter or support. Community programs designed to foster social cohesion have also been halted, threatening fragile stability in host communities.

In Afghanistan, where more than 1.5 million Afghans have been forcibly repatriated from Iran and Pakistan, the situation is becoming increasingly desperate. Tehran has signaled plans to expel up to 4 million undocumented Afghans, many of whom are women and children.

Due to funding cuts, protection activities have been reduced by over 50%, severely weakening programs for women’s empowerment, mental health, and prevention of gender-based violence. UNHCR says it will reach only 45,000 women in 2025, less than half the number it served last year.

Financial support for returnees has also been slashed. Refugee households now receive just $156, with an additional $40 per person for transportation—barely enough for basic food, let alone housing.

“These cuts increase exposure to harmful practices such as early marriage, child labor, and exploitation,” the agency warned.

The UNHCR cautioned that its shrinking operational capacity could accelerate new waves of displacement in already unstable regions such as South Sudan, Uganda, and Chad. The agency says the current map of budget cuts could quickly become a map of new humanitarian emergencies.

Despite the worsening outlook, UNHCR insists it has the expertise and infrastructure in place to deliver support where it is most needed. What is missing, it says, is global political will.

“UNHCR’s commitment remains steadfast,” the report concludes. “But without an urgent wave of international solidarity and new funding, decades of progress in protecting the world’s most vulnerable could be lost.”