The International Rescue Committee (IRC) has issued a stark warning in a new report, highlighting that Afghanistan and other conflict-affected nations are being left behind by global climate finance and shrinking international aid.

The report, titled “Navigating the Climate Crisis in a New Era of Aid,” was released ahead of the Berlin Climate Security Conference. It reveals that 17 countries facing both conflict and climate vulnerability—including Afghanistan and Yemen—make up just 11% of the world’s population but account for 70% of global humanitarian needs and crisis-level food insecurity. Despite this, these nations received only 12% of total adaptation finance allocated to developing countries in 2022.

According to the IRC, development assistance to these 17 countries has dropped by more than 40% between 2013 and 2023, even as climate shocks have intensified.

Afghanistan, one of the countries most affected, faces the risk of losing over 10% of its Gross National Income (GNI) due to anticipated aid cuts.

The report also criticizes current climate funding trends that favor stable, low-risk environments. It notes that only 2% of global adaptation finance comes from private sources—almost none of which reaches conflict zones. The IRC warns that the cost of inaction is rising, estimating that every $1 spent on early risk reduction saves up to $15 in post-disaster recovery.

In response, the IRC is urging global donors to prioritize fragile and climate-affected regions like Afghanistan by committing to equitable adaptation finance at COP30. The organization calls for shifting from loan-based to grant-based funding, scaling up anticipatory action programs, and investing in early warning systems.

Highlighting its “Follow the Forecasts” model—successfully used in countries like Somalia and Afghanistan—the IRC demonstrated how anticipatory action can save lives. In Afghanistan, the IRC provided cash support to 2,800 households before drought conditions led to crop failure and food insecurity, showcasing the effectiveness of early intervention.

Despite its proven benefits, anticipatory action currently represents less than 1% of global humanitarian funding. The IRC calls for donors to meet the 5% humanitarian budget target for anticipatory action by 2026 and to increase investment in locally led resilience programs, particularly those led by women and civil society groups.

The organization warns that without urgent reforms, conflict-affected countries like Afghanistan will continue to suffer the harshest impacts of both climate change and declining aid support.